Alamak jgn go back to efficiency

Upfront the 2 of u must clarity n agree on wat IRR of 12% guaranteed by EVN means

EVN upfront cannot guaranteed return from sales of electricity

Sales of electricity return is the one that can push IRR to mid teens

There is further return from sales of electricity

probability

Klau what u said is true thn 160m is d minimum not d maximum being the 12% IRR return that EVN can guaranteed also equal capacity payment



probability Not sure what you mean. If you exclude the interest and make the FCF-E(equity) Icon had used and replace with FCF-F(firm), you can then work back on the required FCF-F to make the IRR 12%, you can then determine the FCF-F. 

With the FCF-F, you have to then deduct the interest to obtain the Earnings. 

This way, the earnings cannot exceed 160M. However its quite sensitive to the time frame/intervals between cash outflow and inflow used. 


Posted by DK66 > May 7, 2020 1:04 PM | Report Abuse 

If you could explain the results of Vinh Tan 1 under the assumption that the interest cost is excluded, then further discussion shall be meaningful.

07/05/2020 1:24 PM

Probability

Rephrase ur question properly

U ni x reply jz pusing pusing?!


SarifahSelinder Yg ni u kira guna IRR cara mcm mana? Same cara DK66? 

probability  

my JAKS earnings projection still stands about max 160M per year

06/05/2020 7:33 PM




probability @DK66, on Icon's IRR 12% derivation comments section, i could not find your explanation on why the interest should be included when its a Project IRR. 

I had presented my resources on why Icon's calculation is incorrect here: 

http://infrastructure-projectfinance.blogspot.com/2013/11/project-irr-vs-equity-irr.html 

http://ecapslock.com/project-irr-vs-equity-irr/ 


Internal Rate of Return (IRR) 
............................. 

Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is a rate on which NPV of the project equals to zero i.e. value arriving by discounting all the cash flows of the project with IRR rate will be zero. 

Project IRR (PIRR) and Equity IRR (EIRR) 
........................................ 

The project is generally financed in some proportion of Debt and Equity. 

The project IRR gives the rate of return from the whole project. It is calculated presuming that there is no debt portion in the project financing. It calculates the rate of return considering the cash flows from the project only (i.e. except financing cost). Project IRR will remain same irrespective of capital mix of the project. 


The above is not matching Icon's derivation here: 

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/2020-05-01-story-h1506818792-_Icon_Jaks_Resources_IRR_Model_Shows_That_RM300_mil_Net_Profit_p_a_For_.jsp 


Its has significant impact on earnings estimation, as such kindly elaborate on this. 

Thank you

07/05/2020 12:40 PM

Sarifah pun rasa meeting wit team Andy not adequately addressed kat ni

Tapi

DK66 peer comparison n OTB stil bet big is enough confirmation tat JAKS kan great

Yg ni u kira guna IRR cara mcm mana? Same cara DK66?

probability 

my JAKS earnings projection still stands about max 160M per year

Klau take in all ur comments PBB profit figure shd b jz capacity payment jer

Ni more DOE requirement kut

D 2 types IPP cost almost sama jer

Klau subcritical n supercritical profit kan substantially difference knp Hai Duong IPP x guna supercritical jer??

icon888 makes more sense

HaHa.......

Sooner or later Andy kan reveals betapa best nya Vietnam Hai Duong IPP

Andy dah planned to cut red ribbon n reveal all

DK66 has jumped queue n stole Andy's thunder

Jadi wat d customers (in JAKS case EVN) consider upfront bila setting IRR 12%

Upfront do they consider the capital structure? Did EVN bother itself how JAKS was going to finance the IPP?

UPfront do they consider the IPP plant design? Did EVN stipulate what kind of PP JAKS must have?

Sarifah proudly berjiwa IPP unapologetic angkuh dan liar

Hai Duong kat face peer pressure to perform

Kan di benchmark against other similar Vietnam IPP

Can tell if it under performed

Yes

Purebull

U dah raise tis point many times despite answers provided

It is time u share wit us in ur mind how cara cara CPECC is going to take JAKS for a ride

Buy roses for ur wife everyday to ur father in law too

Klau Addy x pandai pandai lagi after IPP we all go AGM every year to betul betul taruk x bagi chance lagi Andy

Klau mcm ni u r talking abt return jz from capacity payment alone right?



Probability the return will be like what the management said to Public Bank IB of ~120M (profit) for 30% stake then 

since the capital and interest payment is secured by EVN, its like a having a Bond level return perhaps... 

just speculating

Yg ni coming from someone yg dulu had 0 integrity (mungkin now jugak) who screwed up big time who had to pretend a disappearance n absorbed to d deep jungle in Sarawak

But nevertheless condemning others for life based on d past

Never giving 2nd chance

Klau bini n mertua u hv d same thinking mcm u u r gone case long ago

Gajah di hadapan mata x nampak nyamuk di seberang nampak

Btw Andy x seteruk mcn u mcm wat u hv said




Philip ( buy what you understand)


Their history already shows execution risk.


... JAKS gets the earnings, how sure are you they will be able to either pay a consistent dividend, buyback shares, use the earnings to take on bigger profitable jobs instead of going further into debt? 

Their history already shows execution risk.

01/05/2020 7:56 AM

Solan nya

Dah ka OTB sendiri dah jual d?

Ya EPS is after tolak loss attributeabke to minority interest

Sarifah expect a reduction in margin of safety a reduction in risk discount in line wit d progress in Veitnam Hai Duong IPP

MISC faces risk of more than RM2 bil impairment

By Adam Aziz

Ramai say JAKS property is a drag on IPP


Even if a co is in satu jer pure biz jer pun ada problem

FPSO 1 2 3 4 5

Even if 1 2 4 5 r ok

If FPSO 3 kena kaw kaw sbb oil major bankrupt sbb very low oil price

Hangus jua whole co

FPSO klau kena kaw kaw it is almost 100% impairment ke scrap value

Sampai billion loss

Manakala Evolve Mall x kan di impair sampai 0 value nya

Sarifah tetap berjiwa IPP unapologetic angkuh dan liar

Mong Duong 2 

51% AES US
30% Posco South Korea
19% China Investment Corp 

So 30% Posco dan 19% China Investment Corp going to b cheated by AES?

Klau betul betul brilliance patut dah jual kat the peak prices x tunngu smapai kena forced selling

Wit his big fund Koon patut mingle wit big fund managers tapi Koon suka jer mingle wit small flies mcm u n use small flies tactics



Posted by qqq33333333 > Apr 23, 2020 3:09 PM| Report Abuse 

Posted by enning22 > Apr 23, 2020 3:00 PM | Report Abuse 

lost 90% of investment fund 
========== 

he didn't say he lost 90% of his capital.......he say he lost 90% of his peak fund...................different thing.

Kena SMF forced selling kat JAKS dan Dayang lagi still brilliance??

More like backside itchy

Patut jz stick wit JAKS kat JAKS Koon all self inflicted

Risk factor?

Of course u r going to say is Andy Ang

Get the IPP Andy Ang

Risk factor pun Andy Ang

DK66

OK tapi u patut comment too which risk is still outstanding n if d risk discount is justified

Also comment if the at least 100% risk discount on JAKS syer price at the moment is justified?

Jz put the summary of risks is adequate u patut comment on the risks hv bin addressed so far

DK66 u suddenly put tis up ppl may think u dah jual ur JAKS

mf

R u making a buy call?

U hv bin totally 100% useless in trying to make d price come down hope u r better in making d price go up

Utk projek sebesar Hai Duong IPP naturally all d risks hv been addressed by professionals in their respective fields

x lama lagi.... saat saat yg di tunggu tunggu... x lama lagi

x lama lagi

Sekali announced unit 1 successfully commissioned only path is up

Dgn risks assessment by CPECC ni almost everything abt Hai Duong IPP is now known

Sarifah is even more comfortable

Wat is left cuma execution risk

Execution risk

Sekelian can see wit ur own eyes how the construction of Hai Duong IPP dah progress so remarkable well

Jz so remarkable execution!!!

Dgn risks assessment by CPECC ni almost everything abt Hai Duong IPP is now known

Sarifah is even more comfortable

Wat is left cuma execution risk

Execution risk

Sekelian can see wit ur own eyes how the construction of Hai Duong IPP dah progress so remarkable well

Jz so remarkable execution!!!

It is always reassuring to see details from insider

But of course

Nampak all necessaries done by professionals

Sarifah tetap berjiwa IPP unapologetic angkuh dan liar

SMA200

Kelihatan selling at resistance dan jadi buying at support...

Sarifah proudly berjiwa IPP unapologetic angkuh dan liar

Sell apabila JAKS Hai Duong IPP so close to COD ?