if your boss ask you to sell down so that he can save his face, then it's time to find a new job

aiyo if KYY support pakatan, will jib gor leave the boat??

Someone needs to write an article so that more investors learn about Reach being one of the upstream players, like Hibiscus and Sumatec.

suddenly seeing many newly registered IDs. so they pay you to release fake news to media and also register IDs in forums?

ah jib also value investor. why would he bet on loss making company

when ah jib 1b fund arrives then you know

buy before analyst report tell you correction is overdone

ah jib kor push till 15.50 at least la

Ah jib kor you can do it. Go go go

In this world of money, who is the real winner and who will have the last laugh, is yet to be seen.

Give the Chinese chairman sometime. it is unlikely that he will let this to go waterfall mode and lose face to his counterparts in China

owner bought 51%, they need to make amnouncment when selling. dont give misleading info.

consider the scenario that someone is shorting HY, and if we have larger funds to not only support the price but buy this up, the shortsellers will need to buy back at even higher prices to settle their borrowed shares. Then the price can easily go to rm30 in 2 months. time to call ah jib kor for 1b

i believe uncle koon is busy buying more to become a major shareholder

dont scold uncle koon, later he sailang all his fortune show you

dont red eye if we win big when Qr comes out

i am sure everyone was happy filling their baskets

nice PE 4.3 .

huaan and sumatec sinking. funds will come back to hy soon

dont worry. we try our best to make sure the IBs pay for their wrong calculation

at the current mother price of 15 , RHB needs to fork out around rm50m to settle its inthemoney CA call warrants. haha you think they it want up or down

What HY has is its fundamental. HY lacks the gimmicks used by other counters, that is goreng up with carefully timed news release

Hibiscus Pe is 41x, I already sold half to buy more HY. HY is psychological expensive because its NOSH is few times lower than hibiscus

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” Benjamin Graham

HY PE 4.6 at RM15. where do you find this kind of cheap and good counter? PE170 for sumatec. Good luck goreng.

"There could be a weaker upcoming 4Q earnings compared to 3Q, due to about 20% drop in crack spread," says RHB Investment Bank analyst Lim Sin Kiat.

Are you sure there is a drop from 3Q to 4Q? Or there is a drop from 4Q 17 to 1Q 18?

PE 4.7x believe fundamentals or believe goreng?

do you think it is safer to buy sumatec with negative eps with unproven track record or hengyuan with proven highly profitable Qr? if sumatec with negative eps can goreng up based on rising oil price, what do you think hengyuan is worth based on excellent q4 crack spread. buy more or sell think again.

pe is still below 5x @ rm16.00. buy or sell ?

it seems that hengyuan has completed its correction, 25 by next Qr is highly possible

look at CH which doesnt drop much. you should understand what happen

PE is only around 4.6. Buy or sell? haha

I am pretty sure the sellers have almost exhausted their bullets.

surely rebound back to 17 and head to new heights.

15 is a good entry price. The warrants are being collected now. Don't be cheated by the banks.

If we see a positive eps next Qr, this can easily go to RM1.00, as current price is only half of NTA. Management is confident that they will achieve profits the next few quarters, let's give them a chance to prove that.

I don't think mother HY will be below RM17 after 6months. It is the same tactic used 2months ago when I saw this CH warrant was suppressed below 3% premium when other CWs have double premium.

Posted by tc2012 > 11/01/2018 14:2
Market maker telling you the mother have room to go down further

Bank pressing CH to go -ve premium. Time to buy

Oil price increase will benefit HY through inventory gain. Without which refinery is still a very stable and sustainable business, given good and skillful management who knows how to manage margin effectively.

if there is one off pp, we think that it is a gimmick or the company is in need of money. but repeated pp at higher and higher price means more and more institutional investors are joining the hibiscus boat. and these institutions do their homework before pp. a sign that hibiscus is a good company

continuous pp at higher price is a sign that there is improved investors' confidence

can we retest 19 today?

is everyone ready

latest version from DYNAQUEST

Source: DYNAQUEST

Outlook

Heng Yuan recorded a 29.8% y-o-y increase in revenue to RM2.6b for 2Q17 mainly due to higher oil prices. However, increased maintanence expenses, amortisation charges and foreign currency losses pressured earnings downward by 20.9% y-o-y.

For 1H17, Heng Yuan has performed above our expectations. Revenue was 42.8% higher y-o-y at RM5.5b compared to RM3.9b in 1H16, mainly attributable to the higher oil prices. Gross profit achieved a similar 44.6% y-o-y increase to RM447.6m with the gross margin sustaining at 11.71%. After excluding RM0.7m of unrealised forex gain, the company recorded core earnings of RM363.2m, or an adjusted EPS of 121.30 sen. We are revising our EPS forecast upwards to 180.0 sen.

Background

Heng Yuan Refining Company (Heng Yuan), formerly Shell Refining Company (SRC), was incorporated in 1960 as the refining arm for the Shell Group of Companies in Malaysia. SRC was listed on the Main Board of the KLSE in 1962. In December 2016, Shell Overseas Holdings Limited (SOHL) completed the sale of their 51.0% equity stake in SRC to Malaysia Hengyuan International Limited (MHIL) for USD66.3 million. Heng Yuan's direct parent, Malaysia Hengyuan International Limited is wholly-owned by Hengyuan Holdings Limited, which is in turn a wholly-owned subsidiary of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Limited; a state-owned enterprise specialising in petrochemical engineering and oil refining, based in Linyi County, Shandong Province, China.

Heng Yuan is primarily involved in the refining and manufacturing of petroleum products. Heng Yuan currently operates one of Malaysia's largest refineries, a 156,000 barrels-per-day refinery in Port Dickson, Negeri Sembilan. The state-of-the-art refinery includes a range of operating units including a RM1.4 billion long residue catalytic cracker (LRCCU) which came online in 1999 and has significantly boosted Heng Yuan's liquified petroleum gas and motor gasoline production capabilities. The refinery produces a wide variety of other petroleum products such as aviation fuel and chemical feedstocks like light naphtha and propyelene.

As part of SOHL's share sale to MIHL, Heng Yuan has secured significant commercial contracts, namely:
1.10-year product offtake agreement (POA) with Shell Malaysia Trading Sdn Bhd and Shell Timur Sdn Bhd for the supply of refined petroleum products, such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel;
2.5-year crude oil supply agreement (COSA) with Shell International Eastern Trading Company for the supply of crude oil to Heng Yuan;
3.Refinancing of USD240m and RM450m of outstanding loans.

The first two items provide a measure of stability for Heng Yuan following the change in ownership, with both supply and sale of products secured. Furthermore, the refinancing of outstanding loans would ease finance costs for the company which have pressured earnings in recent years. We note that unlike its more vertically integrated rivals, Heng Yuan is not involved directly in the marketing and sale of its refined products to end-customers which has fixed prices according to the automatic pricing mechanism (APM). As a result, Heng Yuan has some room to manage its stocks and margins, as it purchases its crude oil supply and sells its refined products at market prices (derived from the Mean of Platts Singapore [MOPS] prices).

Heng Yuan's revenue in the past five years has declined steadily from RM15.1b in FY12 to RM8.4b in FY16. However, the trend was partly due to the collapse in global oil prices in 2014 which not only reduced sales revenue but significantly lowered costs for the group. In FY15, Heng Yuan's improved cost and margin management returned the group to the black. The group actively renegotiated contracts and reoptimised operating procedures to lower costs, at the same time benefitting from product price lag, hence capturing improved margins as their cost of crude oil declined faster. Profit after tax of RM351.8m and RM335.3m were achieved in FY15 and FY16, respectively.

i expect HY PE to catch up with Petronm

petronm and HY similar pattern

today must limit up please

Bro 3iii your Dynaquest version is outdated

1) Is the trend reverse?

I don't think this is a trend reversal. the high volume on Friday show that 16.30 is a strong support. whoever wanted out had already done so on Friday. Refer 28 Aug ( a day after lower Qr announced), there was a drop of RM1 with high volume, then the price slowly trend up. It simply means that all the sellers are exhausted and price is ready to go higher.

2) Can I buy when the price go lower?

If you think that Hengyuan deserves a PE10 and that Q4 qr will be excellent, then keep buying. The price did not go up 5-8% a day without good reason. I dont think those who buy higher and higher for the past few weeks are without good foresight. Also do you think that so-called sharks would buy higher and higher each day then suddenly trigger a big drop by throwing tens of millions worth of shares out in a few minutes. Price shouldn't drop anymore, If it drops it means that we need more time to exhaust the sellers and you can start buying more and more

3) Can I buy if the price rebound? When this rebound, it would be strong and price would quickly move towards 25.

4) Or should I wait for the price to break new high before buying? if it breaks, price would move up very quickly I don't think you can get any tickets without full-time monitoring. I don't advocate this method of playing.

Understand that price can be manipulated to some degrees. on 28Aug operators who see the HY potential could be throwing out big blocks cheaply to cause others to think that it is a bad Qr when they are actually accumulating. or possibly those without great foresight sold their holdings. sellers exhausted, more buyers who see the potential join in, so price continue upwards

Last Friday with the help of the TA comment, operators saw an opportunity to collect more tickets by throwing out millions of worth of shares within a few minutes to trigger a sell-down.

Or possibly some funds (sharks) who have plans to exit soon was frightened that the TA securities comment might trigger a sell-off. so they quickly threw out all their holdings first. If this is the case, then other funds which see the potential in HY had collected all of the tickets and are ready to push HY to higher price.

Or possibly investment banks who have been accumulating for sometime at lower prices, they throw out all their holdings in attempt to reverse the uptrend to minimize their losses from warrants. but note that other funds which see the potential in HY had collected all of their tickets and are ready to push HY to higher price.

Worst case scenario, investment banks were the one who triggered the sell-down and also at the same time collected the tickets. they can now sell bit by bit to press the price down. But if they do this, will they be in a better position than to settle the warrants at higher price. So I think this scenario is not sensible. But never know someone made some wrong calculations and came out with this idea.

Therefore to truly predict if price will go up or down next, we need to know who is holding the tickets, who has been buying and who has been selling and who throw out the millions last Friday and who has the intention to buy/sell more. without knowing all these, it is difficult to predict the (short-term) price movement just by looking at some charts (so called TA).

Fundamentally HY is unchanged. its value will be unlocked sooner or later no matter who the operators are and what their intentions are. You can see that my answers all point to Buy because I know fundamental analysis works and HY has good fundamentals, and (long-term) price movement will be up.

I can tell you many bursa counters with 1-2 QR turnaround can easily goreng till PE20 based on that 1 profiting Qr annualized. If you annualized this HY 120 EPS (=480), at a mere PE10 you are already looking at RM48. Is not that much to ask for RM25 by next Q4 qr release. The main concern of many people is that HY cant sustain a high EPS. But do you think HY cant even achieve a 60 eps per quarter on average for the next year?

Short-term price movement depends on the strength of the numerous sharks at play now. what retailers can do is to buy for the good fundamentals as I believe more sharks want HY to up than down, as sharks also look for good fundamentals counter to goreng. some sharks are not so ethical, they help to push up, earn peanuts and run away. But we definitely need them to help propel the share price to HY deserved PE of 10. Let's see who can win this battle as there are not much tickets left.

Also It will be oil play in 2018. PE of msian oil/refinery counters can go towards 30 like all the semicon counters last year. Forget about all the naysayers, they know not a thing how share price moves.