http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/SEA-02-220814.html

I do not know it is real or not. But this is the latest information on Don Sahong Dam's progress.

For those buying MFCB, a good news for you all. I noticed that there is an argument about whether MFCB manages to get licence renewal for power plant in China & Sabah. While I do not have answer on China, but I have quite firm answer on Sabah's power plant licence renewal. Since 2000 (KLSE can only trace annual report till 2000) till 2013's annual report, Perbadanan Pembangunan Ekonomi Sabah (SEDCO) has been MFCB's major shareholder with over 6% holding. So, with the influence of SEDCO, power plant's licence renewal should not be major concern.

I am afraid that for F&B food, if there is quality issue, what other customers will look at that? Will they temporarily shift to other supplier first to avoid any quality issue affecting end user's health condition? Just ponder... Anyway, stuck with some shares on this counter, not yet cut loss. Will see how it performs in the next quarter.

I bought at 65 cents & pushed myself to cut loss at 61.5 cents. Only left a little share. Now MACD turn bearish with fast line cut down slow line. Seem like 58 cent is the next support after 60 cents breakdown.

Last time in May 2014, when the report came out not good, the market maker threw down the share price earlier before report came out. Now is history repeating again? Too bad.

A rally stock seldom drops below MA5 line to have a bullish uptrend. Usually market maker will support firmly if the likely quarterly report is good. So, hopefully the coming quarterly report is positive & hopefully today's market reaction is just a show created by market maker to wash away short-term player.

So low transaction volume & price drop? tonywong8, seem like top up with 300k at 0.65 not the right price...

Sorry to hear about that. I thought that as an investor, we sometimes need to cut loss when the QTQ EPS starts to drop. But looking at the trend right now, I do believe the share price can move up to RM0.85 pretty soon.

tonywong8, your wish come true. Evergreen share price is up...:)

In 2009, there was an investment analyst's report did a thorough analysis for all Malaysia wood based counters inclusive of latitude, hevea, liihen, pohuat, subur, jtiasa, taann, wtk & eurosp. The findings said that among so many wood based counters, Evergreen was ranked:

(1) the top 2nd highest profit margin with 11%,
(2) top 1 in profits with RM80.2 million,
(3) top 5th sales with over RM700 million sales,
(4) top 1 in ROE with 13%,
(5) top 2 in ROA with 6.5%,
(6) top 5 in market cap with RM459.1 million,
(7) top 5th in lowest PE with 5.7.

With so many top positions, that is why LTH kept on increasing its evergreen share's stake till over 7% in 2013. Whoever not buy Evergreen, now the price is still reasonable, can buy, looking at LTH's costing is from RM0.60 to RM1.

Again, the share price now is less than RM0.65 and the book value is RM1.56. Do you think this counter is undervalued?

Note: buy at your own risk. Please do your own study on TA, FA & money management before you buy in. For trading purpose, do your own timing analysis. For investing purpose with holding power over 6 months, I do not see any risk buying below RM0.65. Good luck.

Coming...

To investors, book value for wood engineered companies is important because this industry is heavy capital industry, meaning that to expand the production capacity, it costs MULTI millions to buy CNC machine, etc. So the barrier of entry to this industry is heavy capital investment. Add on is all the stocks for wood engineered companies are sellable and no need to scrap, unlike technological products that will be replaced if the technological requirements change. So book value of RM1.56 is REAL for evergreen. That is why wood engineered companies' valuation can be judged using price over book value. Here, if Evergreen really quoted like competitors Vanachai, then the stock should eventually sell at 0.8 x RM1.56 = RM1.25. With current price at RM0.595, is it undervalued HUGELY?

In fact, my thorough analysis found out that almost all wood engineered counters like Vanachai, Pfeiderer Grajewo and Norbord all sold at 0.8 times of price / book value. So, Evergreen now sold at less than 0.4 times of price / book value. Is it undervalued HUGELY?

Yes, after the run up, now Vanachai's share price is sold at 0.9 times of price / sale and 1.3 times of price / book value. Very expensive. To all who do not know the IPO price of Evergreen in 2005, this counter moved into KLSE with IPO RM1.14. Since then, this stock never did any share split or right issue. In 2005, the book value is only RM0.66 but the share price hit RM2 in year 2007. Now the book value is RM1.56 and the share price is only RM0.58. Is it undervalued HUGELY?

Anyone look through Evergreen's annual report from 2005 to 2013 will find out that Evergreen's customer base is over 500 clienteles. Evergreen will switch its customer base according to countries' demand instead of focusing on one market. So, if US and UK and other EU countries get better economically, or Japan to boost up construction activity to meet with coming Olympic Game in Japan in the year of 2020, Evergreen's marketing team will likely switch to this high demand market. So, again, if global economic growth is intact & no major economic crisis is happening, with current global MDF & particleboard capacity grows at less than 4% (from Timber International Board & other sources I studied), the MDF price & particleboard price are likely to move up, concurrently with plywood's price uptrend.

Pfleiderer Grajewo, Poland's largest wood engineered company with market cap at RM1.16 billion (8/8/2014), has seen its share price run up from 2012 PLN $10 to PLN $30 in 2013 before retraced back to PLN $23.19 (8/8/2014). Major market for Pfleiderer is in Poland.

According to Credit Suisse's report in 2006 on Evergreen, for every 1% appreciation on USD against Ringgit, Evergreen will enjoy 3% to 4% increase in EPS. For every 1% increase in MDF's ASP, evergreen will enjoy 6% to 7% increase in EPS. Now Dollar has been appreciated with $1 USD equal to RM3.209 (8/8/2014 closing price) & MDF has been up over 4% in 2014, can you see coming sunshine on Evergreen's quarterly results & the uptrend is intact?

There is a close substitution effect on MDF & particleboard to replace plywood with pricing cheaper than plywood about 30%+. Currently, plywood's price has been up 4.7% in 2014 (WTK's May 2014 quarterly report) compared to 2013 and this trend is unlikely to change (Subur's June 2014 quarterly report).

Norbord, Canada, one of the biggest wood engineered companies in the world with market capital over RM3 billion, has been run up its share price from Canada $10 in 2012 to Canada $35 in 2013, and retrace back to Canada $20.95 at 8/8/2014, still over 100% run up in its share price.

For all Evergreen shareholder to know, Vanachai group is the largest MDF & particleboard producer in Thailand. MDF & particleboard accounts for 80% of its total sales. This company produces yearly estimated RM800 million to RM1 billion sales on wood engineered products, that is mostly MDF & particleboard. So I use Vanachai as a competitor analysis is comparable due to the same size of sales & majority of sales all come from MDF & particleboard.

I believe coming quarterly EPS result marks the 1st +ve result achieved by Evergreen. I expect sales to over RM250 million and NPAT to be at least RM5 million or 1 cent of EPS.

Reason:
(1) MDF price & particleboard price has been stabilized in the 2nd half of 2013 with 4% & 6% up respectively and this trend is moderately continuing in 2014.
(2) Production cost is lower with cheap glue price & rubber wood. These 2 factors use up over 60% of total production cost
(3) No major capital expenditure
(4) Competitor, Vanachai group in Thailand, has been turnaround since 3rd quarter 2013 and the share price has been up 100% from its low point.
(5) Yes, middle east is unrest but middle east is always unstable as usual
(6) Yes, Russia now may declare war with Ukraine but Ukraine is a small country, not aimed by Evergreen. Moreover, Russia imposes ban on EU & US on foods item & likely in the near future, other trading products. This is a good news for Evergreen to capture more on this market.
(7) Vanachai group is heavily in debt but now share price is 1.2 times of price over book value and 0.8 times of price over sales volume. Evergreen now only sells its share price at less than 0.4 times of price over book value and price over sales volume. What a huge price difference, MARGIN OF SAFETY.
(8) MDF & particleboard are always linked to global economic growth. Look carefully, US has been in housing recovery since 2013. EU especially UK housing price now is up sharply. China, yes, in soft landing on economy but still growing over 6% QTQ. No major turnaround issue happening yet. Yes, Obama now decide to launch air strike to Iraq but this is just a small excuse for market to do a correction, not collapse. Ebola virus now affecting West Africa is just a small issue created by market to do correction. See clearly, people die on cancer, heart attack or stroke in Malaysia is over thousands, not hundreds as what happens in Ebola virus now.
(9) Japan has been having its 1st time inflationary pressure in 2014 as house price moves up slightly. Japan plans to push up the inflation more to encourage domestic consumption. That is why GST has been up to 8% effective 1st April 2014. That is why counter like Hevea focus on Japan has good run up.
(10) India is still the biggest wood import countries for most of M'sia wood counters due to huge population & still growing economy.

In summary, my TP RM0.80 in the year end is still intact unless there is a major global economic crisis happens again. Or else, I look forward my RM0.80 TP.

Cheers always...

Now this stock only trades at 0.38 times of price over book value & 0.34 times of price over sale. This valuation for a market leader in MDF & particleboard is unjustifiable. If you all check through shareholder's changes for Evergreen, you will find out that Lembaga Tabung Haji has increased its holding from merely 5% to over 7% in 2013. Costing for LTH is RM1 to RM0.59. Now our costing is only RM0.60 if we buy at the market price. Again, this stock is not for trading purpose, this stock needs to hold for medium term at least 6 months to see the price really appreciated till at least RM0.80. Good luck.

Since Evergreen's inception to KLSE in 2005 till now, this counter never faces losses except in 2013. Even in times of 2008 financial crisis, this counter still makes profit. Take a look at MIECO counter's annual report which involves same industry as Evergreen, it states clearly that in the 2nd half of 2013, price of particleboard has been stabilized & price competition is lesser. Even in Evergreen's annual report & quarterly EPS result's report also stated clearly.

FA & market outlook is very important other than TA. Evergreen is likely to hit RM0.80 in this year end. Why? MDF & particleboard's price has increased 4% & 6% in the 2nd half of 2013 & the trend is continuing to 2014. Earlier I said middle east crisis will affect Evergreen sales because over 35% sale from middle east countries. Here I reclaim back my earlier statement is inappropriate. Why? invasion of Iran and even spreading to Lebanon won't affect much because these 2 countries are less capital per income for each resident.

Just read through an Iskandar house buyer in a forum saying that last year he bought a semi-detached house in Iskandar Johor with only RM450,000. So, my friend is paying RM1,000,000 to get an apartment in Ang Mo Kio. With only RM450,000, he can own a semi-detached house in Iskandar, Johor. What a big difference?

Najib said likely to charge RM20 per entry. For shopper, small amount, only Singapore dollar $8. For Iskandar property investor, small issue. Why? Assume 365 days x RM20 = RM7,300. 20 years RM7,300 x 20 years = RM140,600 ONLY.

The price difference between Johor property & Singapore property is at least 3 times. For instance, my friend live in Ang Mo Kio, Singapore bought a house 2 years ago with Singapore dollar $400,000, about 1,000 square feet or Sin $400 per SF. That is Malaysia ringgit RM1,000 per SF. That was 2 years ago. Now anyone knows KSL's housing price in Iskandar area? I believe it is not over RM500 per SF for average condominium. Do not forget my friend just bought an apartment in Singapore, not condominium status, with no comprehensive facility.

If anyone knows the housing price of KSL in Iskandar area, please do not mind to share this info?

Tq.

Hi chiongster1234, I can't find the confirmed news about the vehicle entry fee imposed by Malaysia on singaporean's entry. Najib said confirm to implement but not finalize details yet. 1st August 2014 is imposed by Singapore government, not Malaysia government.

If MudaJAYA can't sustain RM2.51 price, next support is on RM2.40. Good luck.

Yes, I agree KSL hotel is really hot demanding. just key in internet & check booking status. In the near term say tomorrow, only left a few... check yourself & you know what I mean...

Most of the property counters do not have recurring income as they only build & sell. Now I just check through Shang hotel. The PE is over 20 times as the recurring income is very stable. Looking at this case, KSL gets 47 cents in FY 2013. 20% of 47 cents is recurring income & the PE is 47 cents x 20% x 15 PE times for recurring income + 47 cents x 80% x 7 PE times for average property stock, then the right TP should be RM4.04. I am not going to sell unless price reach at least RM3.50, its NTA.

Hi 5w33. Allow me to ask you where you got this insider information? is your friend renting inside the mall?

Just read through quarterly report of KSL. Found out that in the 1st quarter of FY 2013, recurring rental income is RM85,000,000. In 9 months time, recurring rental income from Mall & Hotel is up to RM135,000,000. In Annual report 2013, it also mentions that more rental income is coming. Wow... Can recurring income achieve RM200,000,000 looking at this trend in FY 2014?

Other property counters, where got recurring rental income so strong? KSL, NTA now is RM3.49. Some property counter's share price is even higher than its NTA a lot. So, most undervalued property counter in M'sia. Huat ar...

KSL, recurring rental income RM135,000,000 as stated in Annual report 2013. More rental income is coming. 20% sales secured regardless of market turbulence. TP RM3.50 with PE 7 times & NPAT 50 cents. FY 2013 was 47 cents.

Dun too excited about Evergreen due to low price because over 30% sale from middle east & now, middle east is unrest with ISIS gets more aggressive in Iraq.

BHIC coming? really?

Trap?

Drop vertically... my god...

It takes 1 year to finish construction & move in to new factory & in operation. Why I say so, there is an article I read through when I did my R&D saying that. That is why I say another 9 months to go. But FYI, just like skpres, when the factory is confirmed to build up & demand is strong to take up the newly production supply just like skpres, market will price the valuation differently. Skpres takes almost 2 years in sideway before it finally moves up from RM0.40 resistance. Likewise, Johotin has been in sideway since August 2012 hit the price RM1.70. So, I strongly believe now is the time re-pricing come in. Wait & see.

Seem like no energy... hold for another 9 months till the new factory set up in operation. Then re-rating only come... hold lar... what to do...

good show... tomorrow another show...

arv18, FYI, I dun come from stockbroking industry. I am an independent, small investor, eager to learn all aspects on investment-related matters, especially stock. Yes, spread risk is important, I agree. To me, risk is measured by how well we understand an issue in terms of internal & external factors. I look for all critical success factors & critical failure factors... Doing so, can help me sleep well & eat well... ::) cheers, bro... let us harvest together in Johotin...

Assume we buy a shoplot & after many serious considerations, we finally say this is a good deal. So how many units we buy? Answer is at least 2 units. Why? It takes so long to do a tedious study & so, when we get the right bargain deal, buy more. Unless we calculate wrongly, then no choice, cut loss... My strategy is when I am right, I will add more. When I am wrong, I will cut loss. No right or wrong, your choice. Anyhow, Huat AR....

Yes, not in the money, worthless... but assume the Johotin reach RM3.16 as what I propose TP, then, the warrant is worth RM3.16 - RM2.28 = RM0.88. Again, this is a prediction. If this really happens, then the return in the money for warrant assuming we buy at RM0.40 is (RM0.88 - RM0.40)/ RM0.40 = 120%. Again, if TP RM3.16 happens, then the return for mother share assuming we buy at RM1.75 is (RM3.16 - RM1.75)/RM1.75 = 81%.

Warrant will reach 55 cents when mother share hit RM2 as what happens in May 2013, but I dare not to buy looking at paying premium over 50%. Whoever dun care about premium & just for trading purpose, can consider...:) Anyway, you measure your own risk...

Whoever bought after my strong promotion now harvesting liao... huat ar...::) Yes... arv18, RM2500/mth salary is really....

Emm.... seem like Warrant is up more than mother share although paying over 50% premium...

I am helping myself & others to HUAT together... now TA confirm liao... whoever want to go in... NOW is the time... but I bought much cheaper because hold very very long time liao...::)

Eye only add on Johotin as his latest addition on stock. All other stocks either maintained or SOLD...

Eye also newly bought 545,000 shares? Very encouraging news...::)

Warrant is more demanding than mother share... coming...