First Fib. target of 1.50 almost in play. A break above 1.50 could see 1.60 come into play over time.

Someone cleaned out the 1.24 million that was on offer at 1.42 during the end of day auction......nice.

Look at the last 4 rolling quarters.....https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/stocks/view/6599/aeon-co-m-bhd

Scroll half way down the page to see the last 4 EPS figures, see the anomaly? Yes, the quarter in the red.

If this current upcoming quarter shows an EPS of at least 1.33, then the rolling 4 quarters EPS will be at least 6 cents, as opposed to the current 3.99 cents, because of the negative quarter.

Technically, there could be a case to see the next target area at around 1.60ish using a 2 year chart. Fibonacci numbers back that up with targets of:

1.50
1.60
1.685

WenJun, I gave myself a couple of really hard palm slaps on the forehead yesterday when I finally realised the reason for recent Aeon support!

I've been a holder since late last year and even as a holder I was too blind to see.......gggggrrrr.

Hi Wen Jun,good to see someone finally chatting in the Aeon thread.


Stay safe.

lm, what's your estimated price of the upcoming dividend?

Spin, spin, spin :)

Can't argue with the first half figures as it's factual.
But we also can't dismiss the drop in EPS for the second quarter. As we talked about over the weekend, the key is to try and the define the current "new normal", or are we going to see Q3 looking like Q1? I would doubt that.

I would guesstimate that Q3 could possibly be similar to this current new report, which would not be bad outcome, IMO.

LM, I'd suggest not to read too much into the Bursa dividend and how it would effect other stocks.
This 24 cents dividend is due to an outstanding Q1 and a decent Q2, in my opinion.

Yeah, likewise @bullcock. The dividend might entice new entrants over the next couple of weeks but a drop in at least the short term is logical.

But how often is this market logical?....lol

So, will the share price go up or down, THAT is the question now. :)

Let's see what the fund managers and instos decide to do.

Probably in line with what @bullcock and I were thinking over the weekend. I was 50/50 on whether revenue would dip below $200 million and it ended at Rm196 mill, so we weren't too far off.

Forgot to add, EPS 11 cents.

Quarterly out.

Revenue Rm196.1 Mill ( down Rm36 mill from previous Q)
Profit Rm88.97 mill (down Rm32 mill. from previous Q)

A good surprise for holder, 24 cent dividend.

The previous two days had very good volume of 10.8 million on both days with good price rises.
Today's volume at 22.5 million and yet more rises in price.
Interestingly,645K bought in the closing auction/after market period, at 1.40.

Wondering if anything is coming up the near term. Or perhaps a recovery from an oversold position? No idea.

Disclaimer: Invested in this company since September 2020.

Nalab72, you're welcome.

Hi @lionel messi, don't ever put yourself down. Whatever investing style that works for you and produces a profit is a good outcome. Your input is as valuable as anyone else s, so keep posting. And, you're clearly a better football player than I ever was :)

You mentioned the ASX company dividends, which I'm very familiar with and you are correct to state that generally their divi payouts are much lower than we see here. Various reasons for that but generally because of the tax system over there, where receiving a fully franked dividend ( full tax paid) is more beneficial to investors.I wont go into detail in here about their tax system as it's a total head f**k!! :)

Keep smiling, buddy !

Thanks @bullcock for an astute and polite response.

The key to everything we have brought up this weekend is probably summarised in your final paragraph. It confirms, to me anyway, that debate in a forum like this can be a benefit to whoever reads or joins in. We are not here to force or persuade others with our thoughts and opinions, but merely opening up discussion. With discussion, all of us may find variables that we hadn't considered before, so that has to be a good thing.

I would certainly never say my opinion on any matter in the market is always correct but I do like to do some research and then share my thoughts with others for debate. A logical process for a stock market forum, in my opinion.

All the best to those who joined in and let's see what unfolds in the short term. Enjoy the rest of your day and stay smart and safe.

Hi @bullcock, thanks for your response, always nice to get some reaction from other posters, especially when it's not the usual i3investor shouts of "going to the moon", or that other favourite of so many here, "limit up tomolo"....lol :)

Just to correct you on something that was probably an understandable typo, it was Dec19/Jan20 when Bursa was around 6.20 before the March 2020 plunge.

Probably what we should be looking at is what we believe the EPS of Bursa would be in a regular stable market. If we could define that figure, then it would be much easier to place valuations. Using the previous 3 sensational quarters might not be the ideal starting point. Would prior to that run, where it was having quarterly EPS' of around 6 cents, 8 cents and 10 cents be more of a realistic starting point, then adjust for one or two more positive quarters during the year to be the extra cream?

This is my current dilemma, I just can't define a sweet spot to use as an average, as the last 3 quarters have blown everything out of the water.

Thanks again for responding and best of luck.

Just to bore you all a bit more :) here are some Fib numbers.

8.12, broken. Interestingly, it flirted around that area for the last 2 weeks of May before eventually falling. No surprise there considering the overall market sentiment.

Next, 7.46. Still to be tested. Whether it gets there is an unknown.

Next, 6.80. IF 7.46 breaks down then the next Fib target is 6.80. That doesn't mean it will drop to 6.80 but if it was to get close then you wouldn't want to see it broken.

Posted by sakurako > Jul 22, 2021 9:08 PM | Report Abuse

Looking at value transacted, I predict coming qr profit drop around 25%, EPS 0.11, take pe 20, Bursa can reach RM 8.8 (just wait patiently), RM 7.35 is a resistant, hold it guys

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Hi sakurako,
I can see from the chart why you mention 7.35 as a support area. Should that break then we could possibly see 6.95 to 7.10 coming into play.
I'll take a look at the Fibonacci numbers but I suspect there might be too many variables for a detailed result. I'll post those numbers if I can see anything worth posting.

I've jotted down some of my thoughts to consider on Bursa. I'm certainly not going to say they are correct but merely some of my own thought bubbles about the current market situation.

Personally, I don't think there is much point in focussing too much with the upcoming EPS in the quarterly. Even if it was to drop to somewhere between 10 to 12, it wouldn't make a huge difference to the rolling 4 quarters average. As Bursa has had a stellar previous 3 quarters (outstanding, actually), any blip in earnings will have minimal effect on the rolling 4 quarters. So attributing a preset PE on the earnings, at this point anyway, is probably ineffective.

What is important though regarding the 3 previous outstanding quarters is to question if it is sustainable, even if this current quarter slips a little.If you go back only 12 months ago the EPS of 10.7 cents was seen as very good result, only to find that the following quarter's EPS increased to 15.10....a magnificent result on top of the previous very good result.

So what drove such a rise in earnings over those 3 quarters? The time frame was from July 2020 to end of March 2021. Revenue actually started to increase prior to July 2020, as can be seen in the previous quarter lead up. I'd say some of the reasons are quite clear:

a) Market sell off due to initial Covid outbreak.
b) A large number of new entrants into the market (Covid related)
c) "Hot money" entering the market due to the loan moratorium.
d) A 200+ point rise in the KLCI from October to December 2020.

With those points in mind, can anyone really see that "perfect storm" of market engagement anytime soon? I'd suggest we would need to see that to have any realistic chance of achieving EPS of 15 cents per quarter over a sustainable period. In the current climate I'd say it would have a very slim chance of happening, in the short term at least

Perhaps the final quarter of this calendar year might show stronger market sentiment as things gradually recover. I have an end of year target for the KLCI of around 1,650 which seems like a madman's dream right now but a 100 to 130 point rise isn't too unrealistic if there are no curve ball traps from Covid. If that's the case then the market and Bursa may have a decent final calendar quarter.

Being conservative, I'm not seeing an EPS of 15 over a sustainable period for quite some time.Sentiment is the key and that needs to change, the BIG question is when will that occur.

Apologies for blabbing on, once I get started I sometimes don't know when to stop :)

Not long to wait now for the quarterly, which will be released next Wednesday.

The chart looks a bit shaky right now with the downtrend obviously still in play.
Just putting this out there for debate, if anyone is interested:

a) How do you think the market will react if the revenue/profit for the upcoming quarterly is 5% to 10% lower than the previous quarter?

b) Likewise similar question if the revenue drops more that 10%?

IMO, either option is quite possible.

lionel messi, anyone who says they have never made a loss at some stage investing in the stock market is either a liar or has never bought a single share :)

Actually, I am quite new to the Malaysian stock market, only buying my first stock last year. I have spent about 20 years investing in overseas markets with various levels of involvement. For about 18 months I was a consultant writer/analyst for a stock market magazine, mainly researching exploration/early start mining companies but eventually moved out of the business after an offer from an Australian company. Those 18 months as a researcher taught me a lot about the industry (probably why I left....lol) but it did also teach me more about risk and reward and to not jump into hype.

My interest is more in line with investing as compared to day to day trading, although I do take the odd punt now and again, but rarely.

Best of luck with your investments, buddy.

TNB ready to lead Malaysia’s transition to electric vehicles

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2021/07/19/tnb-ready-to-lead-malaysias-transition-to-electric-vehicles/

lionel messi, I will be waiting to see the upcoming quarterly before I make any decision :)

Anything is possible in this current market environment.

LOL Jeffreyteck, thanks for making my smile on a Sunday morning. Your last sentence is pure gold :)

Paul, the risks of short dated warrants in this current market environment are greatly magnified, no matter how the individual company's prospects look.

There is no point swimming against the tide, as in most cases the investor will get washed away. If you believe in the long term prospects of a company then perhaps take advantage of weakened prices to build up an investment portfolio of quality stocks. Less margins but generally a safer bet. Consider warrants in a far more buoyant market.

Just my thoughts :)

lionel messi , as the old saying goes..."one swallow doesn't make a summer"............or a marriage :)

As I've said numerous times over the past 10 months, you either believe in the Solarvest business plan or you don't.
If you are a believer, then just hold and wait = INVEST.......or just walk away.

Unfortunately there are far too many uprampers and downrampers on these forums, oh well, such is life.

Have a great day.

Nalab72

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/market_statistic/securities

Click on key indicators.

Also, if you open up any basic chart for the KLCI you can get a graphic view of daily volume for that index.

I'm not sure how an unknown, the quarterly result,can already be priced in, Mr Messi.
May I suggest you take a look at a two year chart of the KLSI and take particular note of the daily volumes. This gives a clear indication of volume spikes when the previous "hot moratorium money" entered the market last year and the subsequent 200+ point rise in the KLSI over a three month period.
If this upcoming quarterly shows any signs of dropping it's current EPS of 15 cents and the trend changes towards the previous EPS of 10 cents, only three quarters ago, then I'd suggest the price will continue to weaken, at least until there are stronger signs of market participation.

As I've said before, I will be a buyer of Bursa as a mid/long term dividend and capital gain investment but I'm still not convinced that this is the ideal time to buy.

Let's see what the quarterly brings and if there is any commentary from the company on its short/mid term projections. I believe market participation this calendar year will be quite a bit lower than last year, hence my call to hold off on buying.

I'll either be right or wrong :)

As always, the blue chip market is controlled by the fund managers and the price, either upside or downside, will be determined by them.
With the overall market being weak (understatement) then the opportunities for them to lower the prices of stocks is fairly straight forward and there is nothing the retailers can do about that.

What the long term retailer investor CAN do is join in and take advantage of the lower prices for future gains.

You can either choose to join into the blue chip game or move on and play the mid cap and lower market stocks. One thing is for sure, you will never beat the fund managers but you can join them to buy and hold for dividends and capital gains.

Now that it has broken below the 12 month low, the next obvious question is where to from here.
Currently, around the 7.30 area seems a possibility.
Only my opinion, but I'm not expecting the upcoming quarterly to have generated the same revenue and profit as the three previous outstanding quarters, so that could add to the current weakness we are seeing.

We live in interesting times!!

keown83, there is no shorting of Solarvest shares.

I've looked at this chart so many times in the past couple of months that I'm starting to get cross eyed when I look at it. It might test the 12 month low in the not too distant future.

The BIG question after that is where will it go if it breaks below that level?

Posted by DChosen2 > Jul 6, 2021 3:29 PM | Report Abuse

HLIB revised TP fron 12.50 to now RM10.30. Will only buy 20% below the TP.

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DChosen,your statement is not accurate,as HLIB retain their valuation at 12.50.

The price you are quoting is in regards to possible technical buying/selling opportunities to trade the stock.

I've decided not to buy at the moment and wait until the quarterly is released and see the market reaction to it.
Along with the current Covid and political situation, my risk/reward ratio is low.

I envisage eventually being a buyer of this stock as a long term hold but now is not quite the time for me yet. If it heads back up to Rm8 and beyond before the quarterly then I've made the wrong call but I'm willing to accept it.

Best of luck to all holders.

LOL.....of course revenue will be lower, is your area of expertise in stating the bleedin' obvious.
On revenue figures from last year's lockdown the expected drop in revenue is anywhere from 5% to 10%.

Almost everyone's revenue will be down

So what's your point?

You'd better get busy and post your insightfulness on just about every company forum on i3.

Stick to the truth and real facts.

@iHunter......I see you are still spewing your ill informed crap yet again :)

Below is a technical comment I made on June 5.

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Jun 5, 2021 9:33 AM | Report Abuse

Technically it looks to be about to test the 7th December intraday low of 45 cents. Too early to say if yesterday's (Friday) price drop on increased volume is capitulation but if I was a holder then I'd be hoping it was.

A break below 45/46 could turn ugly, so I definitely hope that is not the outcome for holders. Downtrend Fibonacci figures for a break of 46 are, 40,33.5 and 28.5. Those numbers indicate how important this 45/46 support level is!

Disclaimer: Purely technical interest for me here as I'm not a holder.
Hope you all get a price turn around next week.

*****************************************************************

On to today. Currently sitting at 47.5 with an intraday low of 46.5.
Technically important that it remains above 46, otherwise the above figures may come into play.

Current overall market sentiment is very negative, however an upcoming quarterly report (between now and Wednesday closing) that can either match or surpass the previous quarter's report may help the stock remain above that critical support.

Best of luck, hope it works out well for all holders.

Posted by lionel messi > Jun 17, 2021 4:43 PM | Report Abuse

Don't just focus on the selling. There are also smart money quietly collecting. If you wait for daily transactions to surge, it will be too late to buy cheap.

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I don't disagree with your comment Mr. Messi (admire your ball control, by the way :) ), however in this current very jittery market it wont be a surprise to see a knee jerk reaction to a lower revenue and profit report.

Mid term, August to December, I'm predicting an increase in market participation, so any possible lower level buying in the next 6 weeks (up to and just beyond the reporting period) might be an opportune time to accumulate.

Long term I don't have any issues with this stock but the next quarterly report might disappoint.....be nimble.

The monthly transaction figures appear to confirm my thoughts that the May to June quarter will be lower than recent quarters.
Thanks again vcinvestor for alerting me to the appropriate website/page.

Thanks very much, buddy.

Is there anywhere online where we can see the weekly or monthly transactions on the Bursa?
I expect transactions to gradually increase during the last half of this year, although I'm not too sure about how this next quarterly report will look.
The toss of a coin right now if Rm8 is a good buying point. Being greedy, I'd like to see it go below Rm8. I think I'll wait to see the signs when EPF finish selling to see whether they have artificially held the price up to sell into.

The last three Quarterly reports have been outstanding, however the market seems a bit undecided about the upcoming quarterly, due at the end of July.
Any drop in revenue or profit in the quarterly would be understandable, considering the 3 strong previous reports.
Can previous revenues and profits be sustained? I wish I knew the answer!!

An interesting period coming up.

A quiet morning with only 307K of shares traded but now the big boys are having a battle at 1.31/1.32 on increasing volume. Almost 2 million gone through this afternoon in the first 30 minutes.

This puppy is always keen to come out of its kennel and take a bit of a stretch in preparation for a walk or little run. It seems to take a look at the weather then decides that its more comfortable back inside its kennel.
One day it will actually get further than the front gate and take a decent run, the only question is......WHEN? :)

@Ic3......I'd see a doctor about that. I'm sure they could help :)