This is a very good article that I encourage anyone thinking of investing in palm oil to read. It takes some of the fizz out of some claims made repeatedly on most palm oil threads.

The article reference is mainly from KLK CEO, Tan Sri Lee Oi Hian, who is not only a very experienced and highly regarded CEO by his peers but also a man of great character and integrity.

This very recent article is well worth a read to balance the pros and cons of KLK's palm oil holdings and the current palm oil industry hurdles in Malaysia, in my opinion.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/klk-ceo-sharp-rises-commodity-prices-raise-concerns-inflationary-pressures

spammerx, it's only my opinion, so I'm not saying I'm right, but I think the current price is mainly due to over supply of stock.

Let's look at some numbers. Since the beginning of September last year EPF have sold around 85 million shares with an estimated value of around Rm800 million. Take a moment or two to think about that.....ONE seller only, selling approximately Rm800 million in just over 4 months.

I personally don't think they have been selling because they believe Tenaga is a bad investment but more to do with the cash they required for all the outgoings from public cash withdrawals due to the Covid situation.

Add to that a very weak and falling overall market during that time frame, you then have a situation where a multitude of other holders and those with margin calls adding to the selling volume as the price falls away.

Since the third week of September last year the stock has fallen around 10%, I just wonder how many other stocks could actually be that resilient and "only" lose 10% with the huge volume and value selling.

There were times in that period when EPF were selling 3+ million shares a day.....everyday! I have sometimes wondered if they had sold other majors instead of Tenaga, such as their bank stocks, if those banks would have been so resilient and only dropped 10%. I suspect they would have fallen more as there would eventually be less buying demand.....but that's just a guess on my behalf.

Also, put yourself in the position of a private Fund Manager, you wouldn't move the price higher to buy your stock when you know EPF have to sell, the more logical thing to do is let the price fall and pick up the EPF stock at cheaper prices. The usual supply and demand scenario.

I have noticed that EPF have resumed selling again recently, perhaps on the nod from the government that some new EPF withdrawals might be approved. Blame UMNO for this as they are pressuring to allow more to be taken out to supposedly "save the rakyat". Mere political grandstanding by them, in my opinion.

Like I said at the beginning, these are just my own personal thoughts but there is a bit of logic to it that MIGHT explain the current price woes.

Looking forward, I'm very keen to see the next quarterly in late February, as that could either confirm or dispel some of the myths we have been hearing lately about Tenaga's fuel cost issues.

There seems to be two cost debates whenever Tenaga is mentioned in this thread:

1. Who pays the rebate that customers receive?
2. Does Tenaga currently pay the full cost of higher fuel prices?

So, point1: I have always been under the understanding that the rebates related to the Covid meltdown were borne by the Government. Tenaga have always maintained that the rebates would be earnings neutral to them and the government have stated numerous times that they have budgeted for the rebates to be returned to Tenaga under one of those government grant schemes that came out during the start of Covid.

If I am wrong with that information, then it means all the articles and government quotes have also been wrong. I'd find that hard to believe!

Onto point 2: This is where my head starts to spin on my shoulders.
I have read nothing until recently about the government paying the extra fuel costs to Tenaga, although there have been "mentions" that the government has to assist due to the RP3 Guidelines.
Up until the above article I have never seen any clarity on the matter from either Tenaga or the government.

At the moment my thinking is that Tenaga have paid the extra fuel costs by the Quarter end.....however....those extra costs can be claimed back, meaning it MIGHT be in the Tenaga Receivables in the Quarterly/Annual Report.

As of now, this is my understanding on both points. I hope I'm right.

*head continues to spin*

Re the above article, there has been a lot of discussion about who pays for the added fuel costs to Tenaga, so much so that my head spins when I try to think it through,

This is an interesting comment from the article..........."“We gather the RP3 paper was ready and waiting for approval from the Cabinet, which will be relooked at again after the flood situation has eased; the higher fuel costs for the period of July-December 2021 will likely be borne by the government and Kumpulan Wang Industri Elektrik fund,” it added."

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/indonesias-recent-coal-export-ban-could-lead-higher-coal-prices-tnb-says-cgs-cimb

It would be a surprise if it was to take on the 5.97 Fib. point today.

I'll have one eye on the stock and another on the KLCI, as I can't see that breaking 1,570. Estimating that level will be solid resistance for a while as the overall market takes a breather and slips and consolidates.

A break above 1,570 on the KLCI would mean a move up to the 1,595 area and I can't see that happening this early in the year.

Just my thoughts.

:))))))

It must be due to my good looks, LM. :)

lol@Value Investor Coo1eo....you are quite the guy, aren't you. Keen to make statements that a factually wrong then you come back to add a bit more spice to say that I'm not an investor, in your eyes.

Clearly your eyes may need some assistance from an optometrist.

Let me remind you of what you said in November 12th last year when the Bursa price was 6.80......."this is not the time to be a "pessimist" rather this is a great opportunity to accumulate.
Bursa PE expansion is for sure in the coming years....so this level of valuation is temporary. sentiment driven. fundamentals are in tact and Bursa is an RM10 share."

Clearly 6.80 was NOT an ideal price to accumulate as the price has fallen to 6.15 intraday last month.

I have been suggesting since around June last year when the stock was trading around 8.05 to 8.15 that I believed that it would fall to current levels. Other regular readers and contributors on this thread will confirm this fact. A check of my posts from that time will also confirm that fact.

I have always said that my interest in Bursa was to follow the trend to eventually buy it as a LONG TERM INVESTOR, once I believe it reaches a suitable buying point. I have continually made that point for at least 6 months.

No need for you to reply or apoligise as I have no time for people like yourself.

lol @lionel messi.....I'd wondered if you got my joke on the other thread :)

Good to see you are on the ball(s).

Have a good one, buddy.

New_Investor92,
The Bursa website is a handy source of certain information and of course has all the company announcements for the stocks you hold. Being a shareholder you should always keep up to date with the recent company announcements, no matter how trivial some of them may seem.

klsescreener also has some handy pages and tools, charting, etc.

Best of luck with your investing.....tread carefully :)

RHB has banged its head against the Fib. point 5.85 on Tuesday and now again this morning. If it can break through and not close and fall below 5.85, then the next Fib. point is 5.97.

That might take a bit of work.

HLG have came out today with their estimates for the upcoming quarterly. They are suggest an EPS of 8.4 cents with a price valuation of Rm5.95.

This differs to last week's CIMB EPS estimate of 6.2 cents for the upcoming quarterly.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/61705.jsp

The oil price is adding to the current 40 year high US inflation figures so it would be in their best interest to see a lower oil price.

It's hard to imagine the current oil price being sustainable in the current environment.......but stranger things have happened :)

When did I say the next 4 to 8 quarters were reducing? I would never make such a reckless statement.

I think you must have dreamt that statement.

Posted by Value Investor Coo1eo > Jan 12, 2022 3:41 PM | Report Abuse

Reducing Revenue and Profit? Did I miss something?

*********************************************

Yes, you must have missed that the last three quarters EPS have dropped from 15 cents, to 11 cents and 9.90 cents.

CIMB are estimating that the upcoming quarterly may have an EPS of 6.2 cents BUT don't pencil that in as a fact until the quarterly is released, as it may or may not be correct.

Traderjoes, good luck trying to pump a company with reducing revenue and net profit.

Perhaps you were trying to inject some humour into our day? :)

Technically this one is a tough call at the moment.

Needs to break 9.15 convincingly to attempt to move to 9.35 and 9.50.
Downside risk if it doesn't break 9.15 is 9.08 and 9.02.

Just when you thought things couldn't get any crazier in Malaysia~~~

The timing of the NGO report is interesting.

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2022/01/11/macc-looks-into-complaint-against-sc-members/

Even at Rm6 I believe this bank is undervalued. Assuming the upcoming quarterly EPS is in line with the previous 3 quarters, then this stock should be targetting a fair value price of at least Rm6.50 on a PE multiple of 10.

I see no logical reason why this bank should be traded at a PE of less than 10.

Just my opinion.

I've got mixed feelings here. On one hand, as a holder I'm pleased that it's going up but on the other hand I'm a little disappointed that I wasn't able to pick up a bit more between the 5.20 to 5.30 range. Technically there was a slight hope of that but it now looks like it's gone.

Bummer, I tried to be a bit too greedy.

Good onya, lm

I didn't know there was a market for cum.......sold in a bottle? :)

It would be interesting to know the reason why he gave permission to his brother to purchase shares into his account. That it factual as reported by Mr.Azam Bin Baki, so I would have thought the question needs to be asked about the reason.

A few on social media have suggested that perhaps his brother didn't have a share trading account. The following Annual Report from Get Global confirms the brother did have an account sometime in 2015. The current controversy concerns ownership in ExcelForce, not Get Global

https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=174849&name=EA_DS_ATTACHMENTS

Notably on page 89 we can see that in position 8, his brother Nasir Bin Baki held shares in his own name, along with Azam Bin Baki being a holder at position 19.

You would think that a Minister in Prime MInister’s Department, Datuk Seri Wan Junaidi Jaafar would get even the simplest of facts correct before making a public statement.

He has referred to "one million shares", when in actual fact it is 2,156,000 Warrants in the company. See page 118 of the company's annual report

https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=174933&name=EA_DS_ATTACHMENTS

Mr. Azam bin Baki is holder position 5 on the Warrant holders list.

Hi lionel messi, yes that is what I inferred in my last post.

When I said "to settle down to normal once it goes Ex Dividend."

Example> If the share price was say 6.20 on release of the quarterly with also the dividend attached, let's say 25 cents, then I'd expect the price to move up a bit as punters seek the dividend. However, come Ex Div. it would return to the previous price (6.20) and continue its dropping trendline until a bottom was formed.

I forgot to add, with the upcoming Quarterly there should be a dividend attached to it so there could probably be a bit of an upward relief rally as some may chase the dividend, however I'd expect things to settle down to normal once it goes Ex Dividend.

Currently that is three weeks away.

Early last night I read a report from CIMB stating that their net profit estimate for Bursa for the upcoming Quarterly report (out on 28 January) was Rm50.5 Million. That is a considerable drop from the previous quarterly of Rm79.94 Million. I'm assuming they have based their estimate on recorded daily turnover figures to come up with that number and not just pulled them out of their backside.

Based on Rm50.5 Million, you'd be looking at a quarterly EPS of 6.2 cents.The previous two quarters EPS were 9.90 cents (Q3) and 11 cents (Q2). Their 6.2 cents EPS estimate is taking the earnings in a direction close to the FY19 quarterly EPS results (5.6, 5.8, 5.7 and 5.8).

If they are correct it would certainly add weight to my estimated Fibonacci price point of 5.80 that I have mentioned in the past.
A reminder of the previous Fib. price points I'd calculated:

1. 6.80- took about 2 weeks to break down.
2. 6.55- broken very easily.
3. 6.35- took about 2 weeks to break down.
4. 6.20- an intraday break (6.17 close), then bounced with end of year price pump/ window dressing.
5. 5.80- No sign of that (yet?).

You could possibly add Rm6.00 to that as any break below a Rm1 point usually has some resistance, but it's not a Fib. price point.

The current BIG unknown (to me, anyway) is how this current quarter we are now in will perform, due to the added Stamp Duty rate increase. I'm still undecided on the net effect of this and unfortunately we'll have to wait until late April to find out what that quarter's results are.

It could be an interesting ride.

Yeah Lanmum, it seems over the top in the current situation. I'm assuming they are basing at least part of their valuation on things going back to pre Covid EPS (FY19 EPS = 80 cents), with a bit of meat added on for inflation and progressively increasing consumption.

I can't see that valuation happening anytime in 2022 :)

One can always dream, though ~~~~

In the last two days we have had two of the IB "heavyweights" coming out with updated Tenaga reports and valuations. Today HLB retained their Rm13.60 valuation and Maybank lowered theirs to Rm9.55.....quite a staggering difference between both parties!!

Logic says that only one of them can be right or both of them are wrong.

Currently I think both of them are wrong but my price estimate of "current fair value" would lean slightly closer to Maybank, for the following reason:

The recent 3 quarter EPS are, 17.57 cents, 14.39 cents and 16.81 cents, giving a total of 48.77 cents for the last 3 quarters.

The tricky bit now is to estimate the EPS of the upcoming quarter to forecast the annualised EPS. Although I think revenue could be higher than the previous quarter the net profit could be lower due to higher input costs. If we take the average of the last 3 quarters (48.77/3= 16.25) and add that to the current reported figures we come with annualised EPS of 65.02 cents.

So if we assume their FY21 EPS is 65.02 and give a PE multiple of 16 ( from memory the 5 year Mean Av. is 15.8) then we can perhaps assume a current fair value of Rm10.40. A PE of 15 would = Rm9.75.

Key to the above estimate is the EPS of the upcoming quarterly and the assumption that it can be at least 16 cents.

Clearly, any higher valuation would depend on the rate of recovery in the economy and power usage.

Just my thoughts to encourage debate, cheers.

The FM will still tell all who want to listen that we are about to have a strong recovery. He said the exact same thing in 2020 about 2021.

I recall telling family and friends in 2020 that 2021 was going to be much worse for the people and very few agreed with me, believing a strong recovery was imminent. During 2021 they eventually came to their senses and acknowledged they had been conned.

We need less of the populist catchphrases like "Malaysian Family" and focus on some actual plans to kickstart the economy, as plugging the holes only works for so long. Unfortunately people with vision seem very light on the ground.

Perhaps we can let PAS run the show for six months so that we can put that final nail in the economic coffin :)

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/bursa-malaysias-foreign-shareholding-falls-145-lowest-record?type=malaysia

I wouldn't hold your breath, Wirajati. The country needs a complete reset and you know as well as I do that will never happen.

Business as usual is their mantra.

@Wirajati, it's actually not that difficult to assess what has gone wrong and what is continuing to go wrong.

When you study Economics at school and university you are taught in ways that are measurable with figures that can be used to forecast business development and forward planning. This is ideal in most cases for business but it is a totally different dynamic when you are running a country. To compound the issue, the science of economics can almost be thrown out the window when you have divisive factors in play within that country or region. Does that remind you of anywhere? :)

There are solutions, especially with the abundance of natural resources, however many within the majority race would possibly find those solutions unpalatable therefore we remain stuck within the status quo. No matter who is running the Finance Ministry I strongly believe it would still be a case of jumping at shadows to keep the economy ticking over. Unfortunately that is not an inspiring or astute solution.

"Economics is an art form, not a science". More so when running a country.

Have you ever heard any politician say....." to avoid increasing taxes and reducing new taxes, we will focus on the haemorrhaging of the country's treasury and reduce unnecessary spending". Answer, no....because it's not politically palatable.

Just my thoughts, rant over for today :)

Posted by yfchong > Jan 1, 2022 10:41 AM | Report Abuse

Can return to rm 8

***********************************

yfchong, Happy New Year and no offence intended :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SD1MJRXnZfE

Coincidently, the shorters returned to Bursa yesterday, 62,400 shorted. They had stopped for over a week before yesterday's return.

Good onya,lionel messi, it explains Wednesday's opening rush to buy and flip.

Is anyone convinced this will make that much of a difference to trading in the new year?

The banks who are owed money will be the first ones in the door to appoint a Receiver or a Receiver and Manager.
Shareholders are last in the pecking order and by then there is usually nothing but dust left.

I've never been a shareholder in Serba and I hope this has a positive ending for all concerned, however early signs are not looking positive.

Good luck to all.

Shootup, I assume the very short answer is no. Nothing has been proven.....yet.

What shareholders can do though is form a group to call an EGM. I'm not sure of this country's requirements to do this, but in some countries if you have a group of 5%+ shareholdings, then an EGM can be requested.

muhfiq,treatshijau, hijau belalang......dude, why do you need to create three accounts to post your comments?

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2021/12/29/serba-dinamik-ceo-charged-over-alleged-false-statement-on-company-affairs/

"Abdul Karim’s lead counsel Tan Sri Muhammad Shafee Abdullah on Wednesday submitted before the Sessions Court that he had allegedly requested 24 hours from the SC to allow for his client to have time to communicate with his solicitors.

He claimed that this was the reason why his client was not present in court on Tuesday."

Posted by superrr > Dec 29, 2021 2:47 PM | Report Abuse

Where is karam ?As long as spies his mobile with his family, relatives and friends, he will be caught quickly...

****************************

Je was in court today. Rm500,000 bail and gets to keep his passport.

Updated report.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/serba-dinamik-ceo-charged-sessions-court

lionel messi .........or.....it's Funds pumping interest into the stock by gapping the open, to entice punters to join the show. The higher the price, the better the shorters profits are if they believe this stock is going to deliver lower EPS and dividends in the upcoming quarters.

As you say, let's see what unfolds, but I'm not buying the story of a recovery play, especially with the unknown effects of the new Stamp Duty rate for 2022.

Perhaps I'm just a cynic :)

lionel messi, the figures appear to indicate that the shorts are not bothering about covering their short positions.

I still think this is window dressing tickling. Not saying I'm right but it is the logical conclusion on current figures.

Same thing has happened with Aeon, from 1.29 to 1.41 today in a 5 day upswing and shorts are getting added, albeit in small numbers.

Let's see where we are in early 2022.

I forgot to add the current short position to my last post. Current shorts= 8,370,940.

Some figures to consider......since October 13 there has been around 6.5 million shorts added. In the last 5 trading gays there has only been 217,900 shares covered.

Just a nicely orchestrated end of year tickle, IMO.

The last 5 days volume for this stock has been low. There has been no new added shorts and the short covering has been very minimal.

My guess, push it up to a certain price then restart the shorting from a higher level.

Just my thoughts.

It is never advisable to challenge the authorities to take the lid off a can of worms.
Once the lid is off, all kinds of big and small nasties start to crawl out.

Perhaps this saga is about to get even more interesting than it already is.