KPJ Healthcare: as long as 1.06 is support look for 1.3
26 Oct 2021

Alternative scenario: the downside breakout of 1.06 would call for 0.99 and 0.95.

Our pivot point stands at 1.06.

Our preference: as long as 1.06 is support look for 1.3.

Alternative scenario: below 1.06, expect 0.99 and 0.95.

Comment: the RSI is above 50. The MACD is positive and below its signal line. The stock could retrace in the short term. Moreover, the stock is above its 20 and 50 day moving average (respectively at 1.139 and 1.0986).

Supports and resistances:

1.26

1.09

In 2019, the Hong Leong Group teamed up with US private equity firm, TPG Capital, to acquire Columbia Asia’s South-East Asian operations (inclusive of 17 hospitals and one clinic) for a total consideration of RM5bil

This marked Hong Leong Group’s first foray into the healthcare space, adding that the deal was believed to be valued at an enterprise value/earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EV/Ebitda) multiple of 20-24 times.

More recently, Sunway Bhd had in June this year divested a 16% stake (on a fully-diluted basis) in its healthcare unit to Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund, GIC Private Ltd, for RM750mil.

The deal implies an EV/Ebitda multiple of 31 times, a significant premium of 64% and 125% to IHH Healthcare Bhd and KPJ Healthcare Bhd’s EV/Ebitda valuation 19.1 times and 13.9 times, respectively, at the time of announcement.

Good choice goodluck

Delay is for accumulation. It's a no loss situation for them knowing they will offer so just buy whatever they can on market now by manipulating the seller and buyer queues and moving it around this range. Yawnz

Delay was not for ESOS since they can exercise anytime even after offer

Time to reenter...one of those counters which can surprise to the upside big time. It's a cheap construction pure play. It's bumi owned. It's good in East M & Pan Borneo. It's friendly and partners w Suria Cap in Pan Borneo tender. Finally it's small and easier to move than the likes of YTL

Doesn't matter...just wait for vape legislation.

Highly illiquid...doesn't need a lot of money to move up. 2.30 is low, they'll revise again once it exceeds TP lol

In Wahid we trust do something Bursa

@acedon precisely…what the suspension did was only to block Karim from buying more shares. He already sold off all his warrants to much hoohaa. He was in fact in the process of buying and then counter suspended. Half-day session bought 1M shares is reasonable especially given the movement on Friday. He could well be waiting to buy up another 9M shares before closing.

So Bursa suspend to stop Karim buying is it? You’re not stopping anyone selling

Bursa’s language adds to the confusion. As of 30/9 informed INEDs on 21/10.

Usually as of simply means a cut-off date. Somehow many, including the Edge reports that the INEDs were informed on 30/9. But is that what Bursa meant? If yes that’s very poor language

And then as of 30/9? Since when the SIR is intended to cover up to 30/9? Its objective is to address issues raised by KPMG ONLY

我也很鬱悶有幾個還真得空日夜不停的炸

So Bursa are you in the know of information withheld? If yes how can you refrain from releasing it to the public? If not how did you suspend Serbak?

所谓坏消息纯属虚构与好消息一样不靠谱嘻嘻

As to the allegation that CEO is selling warrants to cash out because of material info…that’s simply dumb not much needs to be said

Actually nothing has changed but for Bursa’s abrupt suspension. Bursa ought to come out and explain itself.

How can Bursa stay silent after alleging that Serba INEDs received material information and then Serba plainly denies?

Bursa owes it to the public to explain why they did what they did.

Can you do simple maths...40 cents x 5 times return is $2.00 and warrants would still be worth zero on expiry. Why should Karim hold the warrants over the mother share

It's perfectly acceptable and reasonable to sell the warrants...what's wrong with you people lol

Which outlet mhanasS?

Fund raising records:

3/2/21 - 11/10/21
MQ 987,000,000 @ 0.0313 raise $30,858,500

16/7/20 - 12/5/21
ESOS 1,016,500,000 @ 0.0321 raise $32,637,200

3/8/20 - 12/1/21
PP 633,405,775 @ 0.0379 raise $23,975,398


Total funds raised to date: $87,471,098


Current market cap 7,977,289,529 X 0.030 = $239,318,685

Major laggard

True, KPJ owns only slightly more than 1/3 in KPJ REIT

Even if you have $ you can't build hospitals overnight...not in 1 2 3 4 years to attain the scale KPJ has built up.

$1.21-1.25 as reported by the Edge is clearly too low, exercise will fail

Good chance and makes sense

Columbia 5.01B ringgit 1500beds
Sunway 4.69B 857beds
IHH 58B 15k beds

KPJ 3000+ beds

Since his highness cannot privatise MAA, he can merge MAA & KNM

Bawang has his other commitments and his own company to build up la. It is not difficult to see where he's coming from. He has no control over Serbak, already cashed out a lot before this, and the remaining has loss so much plus it's not his priority. If you were him you too would channel your resources to his other corps like Minetech which requires his full resources + it has very good potential too, at least in his mind

In the event that happens, you make at least 4x from your warrants and 2-3x from your mother share counting from now

WC/WD exercise cost is 0.07 with a few more years to go. For a company so greedy for cash, we should hope it fully pushes the price above 7 so that retailers or whoever will exercise and return cash to the company. There's a lot of money there in the region of $140M.

Another odd move of late is the warrants. It may not be a lot of money, but it when it is taken it moved fast enough, and quantum large enough, to suggest it is not retail.

Personally how high this goes doesn't affect me that much. I have made back from other counters. But this is really quite an interesting counter because of so many unanswered questions and the "potential" lol

And I think you are quite right it can't go below 2.5 cents. To those who are waiting below 2.5 cents it is a long shot. Because really, who has the shares to sell down to 2.0 cents? Even if we are existing shareholders, we should be happy in the event that happens. Only operators are able to flush out weaker shareholders at 0.020 and when they do that it will often precede an eventual huge rebound - so should it come below 0.025 it's a signal that they are almost ready to stage a big move again

@Valgrovest

Yes I think you are right

Further another possibility of the 20% MQ placement is for control, using MQ as a shield. I think it is highly unlikely MQ itself is subscribing and selling for this meagre profit. Refer to its average subscription price of 0.0313 to date and the period it occured. There was rarely a time they could have sold at 3.5-4.0 cents. It is really not that profitable a trade no matter how you look at it. My view is this placement is to distribute shares to operators at a low cost. They have sufficient nominees so that none would appear as substantial shareholders or even in the Top 30

Evidence of Bornoil having a huge number of nominees is from its previous ESOS. From 2017-18, ESOS 747,996,000 shares @ 0.09585. Recall further that they did the ESOS despite a significantly lower market price at the same time. Also note the ESOS then specifically states it cannot be given to directors/ controlling shareholders. So one can see the huge number of nominees subscribing for the shares, and way above market price. Further evidence of this phenomenon is in the auditor's adjustment. Bornoil recognised cost as $0.09585 per ESOS share - auditors disagreed - they put it closer to market price with reference to black-scholes model and lowered it to 6-7 cents if I recall correctly. This reduced Bornoil's cost and as a result affected its bottomline so much that it reported a subsequent loss from a gain.

30.5 or 44.5 maybe get some response otherwise all bored lol

dont be silly...nobody cares about 37.5 for this counter

To think that 3s to 5s is a full 66.66666666666666666666666 higher. Weirdest counter ever. Are we going to make that 66.6666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666% soon?

Showtimeeeeeeee

Yes. Dilly dally so many months. There has been accumulation all the way

@bbc99 you are absolutely right - there are always other counters we can buy

@Ular correct correct...

dont be too happy with the movement now ya...more than half is me so it's not operator lol

Don't argue...just count the opportunities you missed while being stuck arguing in Hiap Teck

Anyone has a view why EPF is buying this small little construction counter? What's so good about AQRS?

@Karma I think 1.83 is a very safe level...no sad face needed. But my av much lower la lol

Lol but DRB is not for privatisation la. Buy DRB for Proton. X50 X70 so nice. Loan moratorium and SST exemption catalyst. Revenge spending coming

Then we will see where did MQ's subscribed 1B shares go. If there's no significant change in substantial shareholders, we will know it has gone into invisible hands and operators own them for control

I tell you what's next, wait for annual report due soon

Patience brosss...MQ subscription will expire in a few months time. They will have to finish it one way or another. @Valgrovest MQ will finish subscription...2.5cents! Give us also we take la lol

No catalyst but good value...a stock to hold if we believe broader market will be rising over next few months

@bbc99 it's always hard to time the market, if you can do it respect

the odds are pretty good here. no harm continue holding since we got it low with quite a healthy buffer. someone used bloomberg and the press to jack up the price. now flush out stage, but it's less boring when it's in play.