Valuation is very rich...vs Hibiscus for instance. Well, for those already invested, hopefully the rich valuations stay rich.

Taking a break for 2 years may not make much difference...they are still bidding for 1 more BP. And then they will have no rooms to take on anymore anyway, and they willhave to start selling stuff or monetise the green energy side which we can't tell how much is priced in. See how well Sembcorp is doing w that green energy rhetoric...

Existing ones that paid up through Covid all proven to be good
Agogo is credible - 50/50 Eni/BP JV, no issue

Anna Nery & PDB (Maria) a bit worrying because it's Petrobas. Unexpected delays in Anna Nery for instance, solely due to Brazil regulations not Yinson...so long as oil holds here it will be fine.

The main reason Yinson is trading at such a premium over peers is the credibility of counter-parties risk in addition to the gigantic order book.

Will Yinson move like Waseong?

Which chart is better before Waseong's breakout

Yinson right, analyst wrong - 3 months ahead of analysts' "conservative" estimation. Yinson never disappoints

New FPSO comes on stream off Brazil
May 8, 2023, by Melisa Cavcic

Back in October 2019, letters of intent were awarded to Malaysia’s Yinson for the FPSO Anna Nery by Petrobras. Several months later, the two players entered into definitive contracts and in April 2020, Sumitomo opted to participate in the project with a 25 per cent stake.

In June 2022, the FPSO’s naming ceremony was held. The following month, the vessel left the Cosco Qidong shipyard in China and embarked on its journey to Brazil. The FPSO Anna Nery arrived in Brazil back in September 2022.

In an update on Monday, 8 May 2023, Petrobras revealed that the FPSO Anna Nery started production on 7 May 2023. This is the first of two FPSOs that are part of the Marlim and Voador revitalisation project, which is expected to expand the current production of around 30,000 bpd of oil and around 420,000 m³ of gas to more than 150,000 boepd.

Jean Paul Prates, CEO of Petrobras, commented: “This is the largest project in the world in the recovery of mature assets in the offshore industry. Through it, we will increase production, maintain jobs, and open an important learning and knowledge front for other similar projects throughout Brazil.”

The FPSO Anna Nery is anchored in a water depth of 927 metres and interconnected to 32 wells, with peak production scheduled for 2025. The vessel is capable of producing up to 70,000 barrels of oil per day and processing 4 million m³ of gas, It is expected to work on the field for 25 years.

Furthermore, the Marlim and Voador revitalisation project is expected to contribute to the recovery of the Campos Basin production – currently at about 560,000 boed – with the projection for the basin’s production being 900,000 boed for 2027. The two new FPSOs will replace the previous nine platforms: P-18, P-19, P-20, P-26, P-32, P-33, P-35, P-37 and P-47.

Moreover, the second production unit, which is scheduled to work on this project, is the FPSO Anita Garibaldi. In a bid to extend the production from the field’s deposits until 2048, these two FPSOs are planned to be connected to 75 wells.

“The deployment of these two new production systems, appropriate to the mature field exploration format, provides operational continuity to the Marlim and Voador fields,” underlined Petrobras.

Petrobras on the start-up of FPSO Anna Nery

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras informs that the FPSO Anna Nery started production on May 07, 2023, in Campos Basin, within the project of revitalization of the Marlim and Voador fields, which will produce the post-salt reservoirs and Brava, located in the pre-salt of the two fields. The unit is capable of producing daily up to 70,000 barrels of oil and processing 4 million m³ of gas.

“This is the largest project in the world in the recovery of mature assets in the offshore industry. Through it, we will increase production, maintain jobs, and open an important learning and knowledge front for other similar projects throughout Brazil”, said Jean Paul Prates, CEO of Petrobras.

The Anna Nery unit, of the FPSO (floating , production, storage and offloading unit) type, together with the Anita Garibaldi, also an FPSO, make up the first major revitalization project for mature fields in the Campos Basin.

The deployment of these two new production systems, appropriate to the mature field exploration format, provides operational continuity to the Marlim and Voador fields, increasing production to an average of 150,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed), maintaining jobs and support services, and opening an important learning and knowledge front for other revitalization projects.

The FPSO Anna Nery is anchored in a water depth of 927 meters and interconnected to 32 wells, with peak production scheduled for 2025. The Marlim and Voador revitalization project will contribute to the recovery of the Campos Basin production, currently at about 560,000 boed. The projection for the basin’s production is 900,000 boed in 2027.

VALUATION/RECOMMENDATION
• Maintain BUY, higher SOTP-based target price of RM4.05 (from RM3.95). This implies
18x PE, or 8x on long-term PE assuming FPSO Agogo fully contributes to earnings (lifting
earnings base to about RM2b). The key SOTP upgrade arises from reverting back our
assumptions for FPSO Anna Nery’s stake to 75% (from 65% previously), offset by higher net
loans. We continue to like Yinson for its execution, although we acknowledge that the current
price may remain undervalued and will appreciate gradually in tandem with the new FPSO
earnings timeline. Our SOTP still ignores the non-O&G ventures’ long-term value.

FPSO Anna Nery’s first oil may be delayed again from Apr 23 expectation. To recap,
the FPSO has been earning 90% of its base rate since Feb 23. However, first oil is still
uncertain, owing to the complications of Brazil’s O&G regulation landscape, involving
National Petroleum Agency (ANP) and Institute of the Environment (Ibama). Unlike O&G
projects in other countries, the environmental studies were not typically done during the preinvestment,
until the ANP license for the Brazil concession is awarded. Under the license,
ANP authorisation is still required for all stages (from exploration to production/ operations),
and a key requisite for this authorisation is the environmental licenses – at times, the
environmental conditions from Ibama supercedes ANP conditions.

In Nov 22, ANP approved Petrobras’ revised US$3.8b field development plan (FDP) for the
revitalisation of Marlim field, which involves two FPSOs – Anna Nery and Anita Garibaldi (by
Modec). This follows after Ibama issued in May 22 “the installation licence” for both FPSOs.
Both FPSOs were delivered at different times - FPSO Anna Nery arrived in Brazil at end-Sep
22, while FPSO Anita Garibaldi arrived much later on 17 Jan 23. As a reference, another
FPSO of Modec, the FPSO Almirante Barroso arrived on 5 Oct 22.

Good news: FPSO Anna Nery secured Ibama’s operational license (17 Mar 23).
Modec’s FPSO Almirante Barroso secured the same license on 12 Apr 23. Hence, it
appears to us that six months are needed from the FPSO arrival dates (into Brazil) to
Ibama’s formal license award. We understand FPSO Anita Garibaldi has not yet arrived at
the Marlim location. Although management views they are unrelated events, we are
concerned by the possibility that the ANP authorisation will only be granted after BOTH
FPSOs secure their Ibama licenses. Under this scenario, Jul 23 may be the more
conservative first oil date for FPSO Anna Nery.

Meanwhile, Armada has run way ahead of Yinson and I have cashed in all Armada at yesterday's closing while sitting on Yinson and Hibiscus. Reserve bullets for Armada/ Yinson pull back if any, or just sit tight and wait.

Outlook for O&G stocks improves further
■ OPEC+ production cuts from May 2023 will likely help our top sector picks
Yinson and Dialog rerate due to positive sentiment and bullish fundamentals.
■ Reiterate Overweight on the oil and gas sector.

Top picks: Yinson and Dialog; we are most negative on LC Titan
Our top Add calls are Yinson (TP: RM3.68) and Dialog (TP: RM2.74). We expect Yinson’s
earnings to double this year on the back of its existing and new projects, while Dialog will
likely be rid of its loss-making EPCC projects over the next 12 months. We also believe
Dialog will eventually secure higher manpower rates for its plant maintenance contracts.
Our top Reduce call is LC Titan (TP: RM1.04) due to feedstock cost pressures.

Raymond YAP, CFA
T (60) 3 2635 9250
E raymond.yap@cgs-cimb.com

The one time where charts work so well

You had the bounce off 200MA with a dragonfly doji
The RSI below 30 turning up
The SO below 20 turning up

Can't get better than this

If we do not want to catch the falling knife...one way is to buy with conviction when the Lims buy. The last few rounds, Lim senior's multiple warrants buy preceded the quick surge. I do not think that he has a crystal ball nor was he trying to push it up. It appears to me more of a case where he knows the behind the scenes - where it is time they buy up. They could be responsible for recent sell down (where we can't see if they use nominee accounts), but when they buy they are more likely to let us see (public announcements).

I believe I was one of the few who bought all I can below 30c, and then 40c. I also sold the first round, re-enter on the recent oil bull, and liquidated half my position averaging 75c back then. I erred on buying back too early finishing all my sold proceeds to buy back at 64, then proceeded to swap other counters to warrants at 50 cents again. I am temporarily paralysed, unsure whether to double up my warrants stake further (I can even quadruple it as I was able to exit other positions). With mother share's weakness I was expecting to get some warrants at 50 again or below but it hasn't happened. Today all I got was a 100 lots at 54, but it's trading fast which scares me away. Any BQ gets matched quickly. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

The low premium appears to a mismatch to me. We have about >4x gearing on a 20% premium warrant when mother share has retraced. Yinson itself is highly geared. And then you have a warrant that offers another 4x leverage. If you buy on margin, another 2x leverage. It's quite possible to structure a highly leveraged long position on Yinson by paying a bit more now in premium and interest cost, if one is bullish on FPSOs at large

If warrants do break below 50cents, it's a great offer for risk takers. I think anything below 0.710 is quite safe, implying mother share conversion of $3.00 by Jun'25. Good odds for Yinson to have already zoomed pass $3.00 should it successfully execute its plans. This has to be one of the most fundamentally sound warrant play on Bursa right now, please correct me if you think otherwise

Currently trading at higher premium than before. This has more to do with weak mother share price than high warrant price.

Yinson itself could be rather boring. But post-rights, the warrants offer an excellent risk/reward prospect, especially for small investors like us.

Over time however it can be seen that Yinson always retraces from highs and next round go higher. This can be easily justified because Yinson has been growing profits consistently, and now more than ever things are coming to fruition. The question is to what extent this has been priced in

Dialog is also hovering at 200MA. Hibiscus has convincingly broke below as oil broke. And Armada is still way above

For close to 2 months it was hovering at fresh 52W high

Then all it took was 10 days to break down and today touched and bounced off 200MA

When it's doing everything right, and share price moves this way, it's not in a good place. What else can Yinson do? We can only wait.

@novel23

last Friday last inute gap down 2.48-->2.41

@rl68

Maria Q.: Jun 2024 not 2025, similar timeline as Atlanta + quarter ended Jan'23 showed progress ahead of schedule

Agogo: EPCIC to be recognised from FY2Q24 (Jun-Aug'23)

Anna Nery: Secured additional US$50k/day rate

Maria Q: has same contract clause as Anna Nery, potentially will secure +US$50k/ day rate

@zhejiangxd

2023-03-21

Insider
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 1,771,200 shares on 16-Mar-2023.

2023-03-21
Insider
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) acquired 2,938,900 shares on 16-Mar-2023.

@zhejiangxd

That’s really a dumb question bro lol

You should ask instead why EPF holds almost 17% or >$1B in 1 Yinson among almost a thousand Bursa counters, and 1 which has no national security significance nor bumi agenda

how will the US banks collapse affect Yinson?

2 days ago

Barring a full blown crisis, net positive, fundamental wise

1. Not affected by short-term oil fluctuations. 100B order book sufficient to ride out any oil crisis in the event of prolonged downturn

2. Business model is built on debt. Bank crisis you are happier to owe money. Financial crisis Fed slash rates lower debt cost, while revenue stable/ strong counter-parties as proven over negative oil price period.

That's on the business aspect. Share price wise, whole market down it won't be up. No need ask lol

For good karma I added some Armada yesterday...not sure what it means but since Karma so happening in Armada thread lol

Yinson is at a turning point as everyone can see. Question is whether everyone has the patience

Jan'23 - Anna Nery time charter has commenced at 90% pending first oil, possibly happened already pending announcement with results release

Jun'24 - Atlanta first oil

Jun'25 - Maria Quiteria first oil

Mar'26 - Agogo first oil

Fuyoh cashflow generating machine

Tis the premium to pay for quality, stability, management, etc...

Or should I stick with adding Yinson, good management, good people, no Karma

Suddenly Armada thread flooded with talks of Karma

I want to buy Armada...but, can someone explain what did Armada do? Why is it a Karma stock? Buy will get Karma?

Can’t really think of any case where SBB of this scale actually worked to move the share price. But this is Bursas only direct oil play ex futures. Looking pretty solid but so far range bound. Observe & monitor first. Liquid counter easy in easy out

Still cheap, doesn’t need much news. Earnings set to rise as the 1B outstanding job in hand has less than 2 years to be completed and recognised. It’s gonna be dull for as long as it fails to secure any exciting jobs…Pan Borneo…MRT3…even the retendered flood works…

It does, emotionally. So far so good hope I’m not missing anything. To be fair relative to the broader market, it is what it is, Agogo included. Its appeal is the pristine track record

It looks like it wants to test support at 2.60 before breaking 2.700 multi-weeks resistance. Mother share still small movements, solid

Managed to buy back warrants sold earlier, and continue to add to mother share position, good luck

Yinson NEVER disappoints

Why buy Velesto, Armada, when there is Yinson?

Yinson is pleased to announce that, on 27 February 2023, Yinson Azalea Production Pte Ltd and Yinson Azalea Operações Angola - Prestação de Serviços, (SU), LDA, each an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Yinson, have entered into the Contract with Eni for the provision of a floating, production, storage and offloading vessel to be deployed for the Agogo Integrated West Hub Development Project, located in the West Hub part of Block 15/06 in Angola (“Agogo FPSO”) to process hydrocarbons; and provision of operation and maintenance services for the Agogo FPSO respectively.

Pursuant to the Contract, the term of the charter is for a fixed period of 5,479 days or approximately 15 years, with the option to extend the term of the charter for up to five (5) years thereafter. The estimated aggregate value of the Contract is approximately USD5.3 billion or equivalent of RM23.6 billion (inclusive of an optional 5 years extension period).

GABUNGAN AQRS: (AQRS MK, CP: MYR0.32, Not Rated) Ended the year with a bang
Maybank IBG Retail Research

Gabungan AQRS’ 4Q22 PATMI grew 6% YoY to MYR5.6m, which brought FY22 PATMI to MYR20.8m (+26% YoY). Excluding net exceptional losses, its FY22 core PATMI amounted to MYR25.4m (+31% YoY). The group recorded net exceptional loss of MYR2.9m a year ago. No dividend was declared for the quarter.

The stronger FY22 results were mainly driven by its property development segment, of which segmental revenue and PBT grew 127% and 250% YoY respectively thanks to contribution from its E’Island Lake Haven development. This more than offset the weaker contribution from its construction segment which was impacted by higher operating costs.

Moving forward, earnings would be supported by its strong pipeline. Note that its construction segment has an outstanding order book of MYR1b, while its property development segment has an unbilled order book of MYR353.9m. Backed by this, the street is forecasting a robust 65% 3-year EPS CAGR for FY22-25.

Brokers are Positive on the stock with four Buy calls. The mean target price is MYR0.43. At current price, the stock is trading at 4.3x FY23E consensus EPS. In comparison, the Bursa Malaysia Construction Index trades at a prospective FY23E PER of 13x. Balance sheet wise, its net gearing ratio stood at 0.2x as at end-Dec 2022.

This strongly suggests a larger upfront payment than analysts expect.

Extended by another 8 days

But, what kind of Msia company does a RM 1.374B contract in a matter of 3 months?

WOW

On 5th December

A summary of the salient terms of the APA is as follows:
a) The tenure of the APA is for a period of 60 days or approximately two (2) months from the Effective Date of the APA.
b) The estimated aggregate value of the APA is approximately USD218 million (equivalent to approximately RM956 million), subject to the terms and condition of the APA.

The estimated aggregate value of the APA is approximately USD 310 million (equivalent to approximately RM1,374 million), subject to the terms and condition of the APA.

On 17 February 2023, ENI Angola S.P.A. has entered into an agreement with YAPPL to further extend the tenure of the APA from 20 February 2023 to 28 February 2023 (“APA Extension”). Save for the extension of the tenure and the estimated aggregate value, the terms under the APA remain unchanged and applicable to this APA Extension.

More of a gravestone doji...yeah not good. Let's see tmr. Hopefully no news is good news that theres something we dont know for the volume surge

2.5 trading days to completion date of US$200M prelim contract

Yeah, hard to tell it's real or fake block. It's not that much, could be retailers like us who got it at mid-20s cashing out. Beautiful volume beautiful breakout this one long time in the making