JN88, Lol you make me laugh. Hopefully you are funding your purchase with cash. Not Margin... If not. Gonna b painful Lol

It's a game of probability.
- Pandemic times
- Market surged from 1217 to 1580+
- TopGlov surge from RM6+ to RM17+
- Covid worldwide covid reach new daily new cases height of 140k
So the probability of a pull back higher chance or lower?
Yes I know Covid surve is good for TopGlov. But all those factors has been PRICED IN! I have repeated this many times since it reach RM16.00. All i got was attacks and bullies and teasing.

JN88, time to let go. Rotational play. Never fall in love with specific counter.

@arthur8756, no one will know what will happen next. Too many things will affect the price. But i think TG will rebound slightly today before close. So your choice will be either sell before close. Or tmr morning. Most will have slight rebound before going down again. But it is risky.

TG wont close below RM15 today. It has already lost 8% today. The drop should b gradual over weeks. As there will always be buying interests remained. Until it is all flushed out. But if it DOES close below RM15 today. Its a clear sign to exit.

My personal analysis. TopGlov short to mid term target is RM12.00.

Ppl are laughing because when genuine sharing of personal analysis with no bias are frequently attacked just because it is against their point of view. Even when the analysis is out of pure sincerity.

I wouldn't even buy it at RM15. Maybe RM12. Not hating. Again, just that theres plenty of choices.

RM15.00 incoming.
Why?
1) RM17.00 has priced in their orders until 2021 June.
2) Dividend yield doesn't justify price.
3) Glove companies are ramping up productions locally and overseas. Meaning more competitions in coming years
4) Once glove demand and supply normalise price prices drop
5) PE too high. Compare it to the other shares. Maybank, DIGI, Tenaga
If you intend to hold this share until 2022, then you might be able to see RM20. If not, good luck. But who would hold until 2022 just for the RM3 which is equivalent 17% gain and 1.5% dividend? Better go other shares.
Haters gonna hate. Not here to argue. Flame on!

@Lanesra I am not saying its a bad buy. Dont start being rude. I am just saying theres better choice. TopGlov is a good company no doubt. But the price will only go up to RM20~RM25 over time. Definitely not 2020.

All say still low and buy for long term. Yet they are saying they just bought today or sold and wait to buy back. Truth is, most discussing here are just wanting a fast profit.
The real long term buyers were holding since RM6.50 and exited at RM17.00. Why? Because they knew at RM17.00 there are better stocks that will provide you better return.
There are so many shares out there that are net cash company with much much higher dividend payout with similar upside. Remember, TopGlov dividend policy is 50%. That would translate to maybe RM0.30 or less. If you buy at RM17. Thats a mere 1.7%!
Think logically and rationally and you will know. Remember, never fall in love with one stock. Let go when it's time and move on.
Good luck all.

If all goes well, expect it to close at the range of RM16.80 ~ RM17.20

The share should range bound between RM15 and Rm18 for the time being without further catalyst. Main drag will be due to the high valuation, priced in sales contribution till 2021, low dividend to price.

Something is brewing. I can see buyers buying the mother and WA consistently.

QR coming up. Maybe not good

This company prospects is very good. But the problem is with the management. In 2018, the company is making loss of hundreds of millions, but it issued a bonus of 75million to the director. PNB is the single biggest shareholder to the company now. Imagine a superb mall with the worst management. Go figure.

Question, if lay man knows that this share is not worth it. Who are the 3rd party PP payers?

Looks like another Hapseng

Agree with Wing23

@Scavenger23, it was almost RM1 3 years ago. What are you talking about? Lol

For long term player. Very simple. If TM is giving out annual dividend of RM0.15, I think it is worth RM3. I expect the dividend for this year to be between 0.10 ~ 0.15. Dividend and EPS will always be the best price indication. As long as the EPS and Dividend is healthy. The share price will hold up. So for now I would not touch unless its RM3 or less.

@Sales, since 2016? Price went up to 0.20 in 2017. U didnt cash out?

A few things that is coming up. Alam Flora and Desaru Investment. I am sure by the time these two are in. Things will shoot up.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/axiata-and-telenor-talks-merge-asian-operations
Telenor holds 49% of Digi shares

Buy some and wait. Could be rewarded handsomely. Even if it doesn't move much, the dividend is good enough.

Pretty sure something is going on with this counter. The movement for the past month is unusual.

PECCA cash position is very healthy. Seldom see companies cash position improve every quarter. If they can improve their dividend play, the share price is bound to increase.

Their cashflow is a concern. It has been going lower and lower every year.

Good move for PECCA. ESOS and 2.5cts dividend. Healthy cash flow too.

@kent_1 They announced 5cts for last year, which is about 90%. Way over the 40% promised. They could opt for 3cts this year. Which is still above 40%. That we have to consider.
Fact: They didn't announce the dividend together with the quarter results, which is what they would usually do if there is any dividend.

I do not think they will make a dividend announcement. Ever since they got listed, all dividend announcement was made together with the quarter results if any.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/03/21/malakoffs-legal-suit-could-see-downside-risk-to-headline-profit/

But there is one concern. PECCA always propose dividend during Quarterly Reporting. But not for 31 Dec 2018 Report. Why?

Let say we just focus n the dividend play of RM0.05 per year and ignore all fundamentals. I would say the share is worth at least RM1.10 for the general buyers with not much in depth research. If the company is to notch the dividend to RM0.08 per year, then I would value it at atleast RM1.70.

Thanks Pecca. Will be back again when price is attractive again.
Wasn't initially going to exit this counter but decided to exit for the following reasons:
1. Enter price of 0.815, profit taking
2. No dividend announcement.
When I first enter, the main reason is due to the high dividend yield. at RM0.815 it has a dividend of 5cts. Upon entering, it announced a 3cts dividend payout right after. If the share maintain a 5 cts dividend annually, it will easily worth more than RM1. But if they alter course, I personally would think other wise. The profit statement looks good. But didn't like that they decided to not pay dividend on that quarter.

Will hit below 0.20 within 6 mths. Mark my words.

PNB taking up subscription at RM0.30 while you can buy at cheaper in market. PNB will become the biggest shareholder.
Company making big loss at hundreds of millions but yet CEO gets 78 Million in bonus last year.
Be your own judge. The 2 points above is enough for anyone to back away from this share.

You bought this share without taking the warning from all directions. You lose some money. But thats not the end. Don't be the person who blame others on their own mistake. TM need restructuring works. Avoid at all cost for atleast few years.

Wow.... This has to be my single biggest mistake... by investing in Malakoff since IPO....

Damage is done, TM will need some time to adjust from in to out. Profit is set to drop in coming few quarters. Cash flow too. Thought it will bottomed out at RM2.50 last month.
but Personally felt RM1.50 is possible now.

Tp RM2.50 I have said it before based on my previous analysis. Wait for next Quarter results and witness for yourself.

@karhongkhit
Not here go argue. I believe I lay out my points properly with facts. Theres no need for attack. Let see the results in next few quarters.
You believe TM will go higher based on your research, I believe TM will go lower based on mine. Agree to disagree.

Entered some at 0.815. With 3cts dividend coming and 5cts annual dividend. Personally think its worth a try.

@karhongkhit
I think TM has not hit rock bottom yet. Their problem wasn't only bad sentiment. Internal management need to be reshaped. Even in medium term, I think TM will go below RM3.00 and hit the target of RM2.50. Reason being:
1) The quarter result announced hasn't been affected by the new price adjustment, which means that will come in in coming quarters hitting TM performance again.
2) Maxis and Axiata both aggressively investing on their own infra, which means as they move away from TM. TM profit get hit again which will come in later quarters.

Customers already start to move away from TM to Maxis due to the slow roll out of turbo Unifi. And downgrading their plan from 800mbps to 100mbps because they do not need 800mbps. All these are hitting TM.

Not to mention the giant elephant of reducing dividend. Bazlan of TM also announced that they will cut TM's CAPEX while Maxis and Axiata is increasing. That doesn't sound good. If they can't maintain CAPEX, how could they expand? If they can't spend on CAPEX, what does it mean for dividend?

Also he said this:

“Now, with regulated wholesale pricing, we can request access to areas where we do not have our own network. Other telcos may have network in these areas, so we can be an access seeker in those areas to provide services to our customers,”

TM plan to rent from other telcos in areas where they do not have network rather than investing in INFRA. Big question for ourselves. Can TM maintain "Big Bro" status without monopoly status? Or will they be kicked out?

This is not rocket science, it very clear and obvious what TM next few quarters will look like. Unless some extraordinary items came in in the next fiscal quarters.

TheEdge has revised TM new target at RM3.00 due to reduced dividend play. If you look at TM prospects in two years, it doesn't look like they will rebound anytime soon. Theres too many things in play now and all is not in favor of TM.

For long term investors that looking to enter. Better wait until it hit below RM3.

For short term investor, it's all luck based as prices will go up and down. If you could catch the low and sell at high, you could earn.

Good luck

Actually we can ask ourselves these few simple questions.
1) Is TM still monopoly? Not anymore
2) Is TM competitive when compared with Maxis, Axiata, TIME and etc? Never was and I doubt it will in near future. These are the companies that is already heavily pushing their own fixed lines to reduce reliance on TM.
3) Is government policies pro TM or telcos currently? Current government policy is not in favor of telcos, margin will be squeezed.
4) Is TM dividend policy better than it's competitors? The latest announcement came with no dividend.
I maintain my personal view that TM medium term target at RM2.50 depending on it's revised dividend play as share prices would normally fluctuates with its dividend policy.

@titus @Shinnzai
I am not sure to be honest about their dividend policy. But to be realistic, if a company does not have the cash flow to sustain dividend, it's only natural to reduce it. At the end of the day it basically means changing their dividend policy.

@titus, the 700m commitment is based on the company performance. As said before, at the current rate, it is unlikely that TM will continue with the same payout.
I don't think TM will cut off dividend totally. Perhaps at a reduced rate.

Yes, it will go up and down in the coming months. For long term holder, better wait. For short term buy and sell. All depends on your luck and timing.

With the current prospect, competition and government pushing for affordable fixed broadband connection. I would suggest wait and see for now. Personal re-enter price suggestion RM2.50 based on the following points
1) Government policy pushing for price cut
2) Maxis and Axiata has announced heavy investment into fixed broadband lines reducing TM reliance
3) TM internal governance and lack of competitiveness due to being monopoly for a long time
4) Assumption of reduced dividend play
Pandora box has been opened for TM. Invest wisely.
*The above are purely personal opinion. Invest at your own risk.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/08/29/drop-fixe...

The real competition will start eventually as Maxis and Axiata is investing and pushing fixed broadband space and stop heavy reliance on TM. Will TM remain profitable if it doesn't have monopoly? My personal opinion is no... Period.