https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/antifragileinvesting/2021-03-26-story-h1543012936-MMCCORP_26_March_2021.jsp

Time to top up more

when will the Qtr report out?

Aluminium price retrace to 2488.25. Will pmetal fly or drop today?

Aluminium price retrace back to 2488.25. Will alcom rally today or drop?

yahoo Sense maker also selling. :)

That also makes sense

Sense maker, you really make sense

Superlon’s current Earnings yield (EPS/share price) is 10% i think it will provide adequate return to investor in the long run

trulyinvest clever investor all sold la... only naive investor stil holding

I agree 100%. So what will a clever investor do now?
I think the share price is very attractive at current level. The gap between its share price and the business value in my opinion has widen which creates ample margin of safety. The lower the price goes the better

Only punters and speculators got trapped.investors who did their due diligence and understand the difference between price and value will never get trapped

Dave Shia Chun Chuan Will tariff affect this share?
11/03/2018 05:25

kyy_superinvestor of coz...this company up to 60% revenue is generated by export
11/03/2018 10:44

superlon mostly export to vietnam thus any market reaction related to the tariff will only be temporary. If the management can sail the company out of the red back in 2012 then i am convince the management can manoeuvre the company through the trade war.

excellent piece of work

excellent write up

Consistent Dividend-Focus Long term Investing

i love it that you use the word consistent,after all consistency is what going to get you to your destination be it in investing,career or life as a whole.looking forward for your next sharing

the last dance before the party ends

magni is now available at a great price!

excellent write up!

interesting

stockmanmy can teach some accounting tricks but cannot change a loser to a winner
18/02/2018 02:40

stay up until 2.40am in the morning just to say something rubbish. confirm got mental issue. please get some help.

the highest since 1997

we all know what happenned in 1998...

keep it up

good refreshing insight.sums up what it takes to be a sucessful investor - no shortcut -

alex foo, the revenue is not declining only profit declines due to higher raw material cost
1Q2016 - revenue 25625 profit - 6052
1Q2017 - revenue 26326 profit - 3568

but the company's fundamental is still intact so for long term investor you should not worry much on the sentiment

Sami_Value talk about fundamental, give you 2 lists Scicom & Esceram

https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/financials?s=SCICOM:KLS
https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/financials?s=ESCERAM:KLS

the past data can only prevent you from downfall by entering at sufficient safety margin....at current valuation, do you think it is safe enough to enter with all parameters of foreseeable future inclining toward negative bias ?

Limpek sensei told me in my first economy class, people will tell you the truth but only portion of it. The balance of remaining truth , you have to dig it up yourself. This is what going to happen in real life.

Superlon is good company - this is truth . It is good to enter now - is this farking truth statement ?
30/09/2017 09:15

Good point Sami_Value. As warren Buffet said "Price is what you pay,value is what you get" and Howard Marks in his book The Most Important Thing said that :

"For a value investor, price has to be the starting point. It has been demonstrated time and time again that no asset is so good that it can’t become a bad investment if bought at too high a price. And there are few assets so bad that they can’t be a good investment when bought cheap enough"


If one's entry price is well below current price then there is no reason to sell unless if you found another company with better prospects and adequate margin of safety.

EveryoneCanTrade - Good point. If you buy based on TA then follow your TA/trading rules. If you buy based on FA,follow your FA rules.

Here is my DCF valuation on Superlon. This is just my assumptions based on the average 5-years FCF it is most likely that im wrong. Dont trust me or any of the IB's TP because in the end assumption is just an assumption. Do your own research before you invest your money


First 5-years Next 5-years Terminal years IV
20% 15% 5% 3.39
15% 10% 5% 2.32
10% 8% 5% 1.75

"Its better to be roughly right than precisely wrong"
John Maynard Keynes

Looking at today's closing price of RM2.31 i would say that it is fully valued now and further drop in price is an opportunity to get the stock at a wider Margin of Safety. The profit drop in its recent quarter report doesnt really change my views of superlon due to

1.My analysis is based year-on-year basis not on quarterly or daily basis
2.The company's fundamental is still intact(clean balance sheet,strong brand recognition,good management team)
3.The construction of new plant in Ho Chi Minh City to expand its manufacturing capacity which in my opinion is an excellent business decision as Vietnam is the largest contributer of export revenue for Superlon.

I like to think Superlon as an Antifragile company.Nassim Nicholas Taleb describe Antifragile as Things that gain from disorder. An antifragile entity will becomes stronger,better,improved when it is faced with difficulty. Superlon had already proven its antifragilitiness when it manage to comeback from a loss making company in 2012 to what it is right now and i dont think that the company had lost its antifragility just by looking at the latest quarter result.

BERKSHIRE, i have taken out my capital and let the profit running in superlon because i still believe in the management's ability to grow the company in the coming years

Well said BERKSHIRE. Superlon is definitely for long term investor >3years and yes what goes up must come down.trees dont grow to the sky but trees can grow back once its chopped down as long as its roots is still intact,the soil is fertile and there's enough water to fuel the growth.

Ricky Yeo FYI. 20% growth rate is not pretty conservative. It is ultra aggressive.
27/09/2017 14:28

Thank you for your feedback.First of all i would like to say that im a fan of your work Ricky Yoe. I find all of your posts informative and full of value.

I admit that 20% growth rate is on the high side of the assumption. I should have have made a range of valuation with different growth rates.so here goes:

First 5-years Next 5-years Terminal years IV
20% 15% 5% 3.39
15% 10% 5% 2.32
10% 8% 5% 1.75

"Its better to be roughly right than precisely wrong"
John Maynard Keynes

Looking at today's closing price of RM2.32 i would say that it is fully valued now and further drop in price is an opportunity to get the stock at a wider Margin of Safety. The profit drop in its recent quarter report doesnt really change my views of superlon due to

1.My analysis is based year-on-year basis not on quarterly or daily basis
2.The company's fundamental is still intact(clean balance sheet,strong brand recognition,good management team)
3.The construction of new plant in Ho Chi Minh City to expand its manufacturing capacity which in my opinion is an excellent business decision as Vietnam is the largest contributer of export revenue for Superlon.

I like to think Superlon as an Antifragile company.Nassim Nicholas Taleb describe Antifragile as Things that gain from disorder. An antifragile entity will becomes stronger,better,improved when it is faced with difficulty. Superlon had already proven its antifragilitiness when it manage to comeback from a loss making company in 2012 to what it is right now and i dont think that the company had lost its antifragility just by looking at the latest quarter result.

they have no choice as they have thier own KPI to meet.Since we are on the last leg of one of the longest bull market in history eveything is already expensive so any price correction in a fundamentaly sound company is an opportunity to get it a a wider margin of safety. its either that or just keep all your money under the matress and wait for the next market correction

lkoky is easy to use excel to extrapolate future income n earning to justify the high prices u pay now.
27/09/2017 07:55

I agree with your statement. In the end assumptions is still assumptions no matter what number we put in. But we must based our assumption on a good reason. and in the case of Superlon is its record to produce healthy cash flows

Superlon has been continously improve its revenue and profit for the last 5 years at CAGR of 40% and in my opinion will continue to generate satisfactory growth years to come. If we look at the latest annual report we will notice there's a huge increase in inventory(raw material) from 5mil 2016 to 14mil 2017 which usually is a sign of growing sales order. The trend in impairment of receivable is very very low throughout the years,another good indicator of an efficient and prudent management team

Excellent food for thought by Sifu kcchong.thank you for your effort in creating awareness on the proper way to invest. I find dontfollowblindly comment's brings no value at all,a total waste of time for everyone who accidently read that comment. If everbody thinks like this chap then only those whose name are in the top 30 shareholder of a company can be a lecturer or professor for investment courses in universities and only those whose name is already in heaven can teach religion

Thank you ongkkh.i wanted to edit the comment but end up deleting it.i posted it back with the current price edited.cheers

RainT Already up so much

Now only come out hoo ha hoo ha

Last i check there are no rules saying that we cannot do a write up for a company thats already up so much.

And how much up is so much?100% increase?200%?500%? The most important thing is to know the value of a company and pay a lot less. The DCF valuation shows that a current price of 2.83 there is still a margin of safety in Superlon's valuation. But in the end,every analysis or valuation is just an opinion and assumptions based on the writer's point of view. Its not meant to fit with everyone's view.

The stock market is ultimately a game of probability. Whether one speculate,trade or invest and in this game of probability one must always keep risk under control. As far return is concern,u can get 100%,200% or any other percentage that you can imagine.But if one ignores risk (intrinsic value,margin of safety,business quality etc) he will surely lose in the long run

ongkkh, i am one of KCChong sifu's online course student thus im very much influenced by him plus i find that his writing style is very organize and neat.

dia dh start buang dh tu

21% increase in EPS year on year

2016 EPS=6.78
2017 EPS=8.27

people panic.time to add more position

Quarter report is already out

saya setuju

thinking of selling my holding in other share and place it in superlon

look at the price now.kudos for your insight

thank you donkey stock for your excellent work.

i bought at 2.56 before split.the cost is now 1.28

Flintstones Learn to be humble. "We still think Cocoaland still has great potential as Indonesia is really a big market for Cocoaland to stretch her arms". <---- LMAO

who do you think you are? do you think your idea is somewhat a big deal??
27/08/2017 08:15

i think DonkeyStock must have a valid reason for the statement.do you mind sharing with us here DonkeyStock?

thank you donkey stock for your excellent work.i was inspired by your infographics to write this article.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/antifragileinvesting/130938.jsp

just a simple analysis on cocoaland.