Posted by stockraider > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

With USD now above Rm 4.40.....the mark to mkt forex gain will be improving loh!

Posted by uptrending > 4 weeks ago | Report Abuse

https://www.expertmarketresearch.com/reports/portable-bluetooth-speakers-market
Global Portable Bluetooth Speakers Market Outlook

The global portable Bluetooth speakers market attained a value of USD 7.2 billion in 2022. The global portable Bluetooth speaker market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.4% in the forecast period of 2023-2028 to attain a value of USD 14.5 billion by 2028.

Posted by Sardin > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

If EPS Q4 could achieve close to 10 sen or much better than I have predicted, the price may reach RM 4 and above.

Posted by Sardin > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

It is not impossible to achieve by end of 2023 or early 2024 but a bit challenging for now.

Posted by Dhando > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

The easy and very conservative way to calculate the intrinsic value is to look at the gap between the current PE and average PE the past 5 years.
PE in the past has been around 10. Intrinsic value is (Past PE) * (Current Price)/ (Current PE) = 10 *3.53 / 7.18 = RM4.9. Anyway, we hope reversion to the mean happens soon.
As FPI is a growth company, I believe the above calculation is too conservative. The actual PE should be much higher than 12x. This PE can only be achieved if share buy-back is initiated or institutional investor put FPI in their radar.

Posted by uptrending > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

3Q Financial Results likely out this evening.

USD peaked @4.70 to RM in Nov 22..

:)

Posted by Sardin > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Investors have been caucious these few days, which is good for healthy share price growth in future.

Posted by uptrending > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Fears of hawkish FED further interest hikes and inflation... People took profits.. Let's see if prematurely..

Posted by Sardin > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Some people are scared. There are lots of small shareholders in this counter and therefore price is more volatile. Current price is fair if one wants to buy, althought not "wonderful". I think the chances of price getting lower is smaller compare to the possibility of going up further. Upside opportunity is higher than downside risk.

Posted by CharlesT > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Forex loss rm13m+ in Q4...worse than my expectation

Posted by CharlesT > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Div 0.21...also worse than my expectation...

Posted by uptrending > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

People in the know sold ahead of the disappointing results...

Posted by smoking > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

ya lor.. the volume at 3pm onwards shows that some people have access to the result early. definitely insider

Posted by Beast > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

hoping no limit down

Posted by uptrending > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Since early February, already pushed up and selling everyday from there.. Later a false breakout of the pennant to 3.6 9 and selling from there again...

Posted by Dhando > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

No one expected 13M forex loss. Really disappointing Q4 results.
Some good news:
1. Cash and cash equivalent up 36% to 361M from 265M in year 2021
2. Earning up 9%, revenue up 4.8% on yearly basis

Posted by uptrending > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Revenue down and related party sales from wistron also down... Be careful if this is the beginning of a downturn in the business..

Posted by deMusangking > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

so will be Humpty Dumpty tomorrow?

Posted by Sardin > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

I don't think so. Probably a temporary setback due to fear and confusion. But price will quickly stable between 3.30 and 3.50. If you study back a few of previous quarter report, you'll find out that earning without counting forex loss or gain is quite stable in the range of 7.xx to 10.xx sen per share, including 2022 Q4. Those who studied carefully won't get surprised and do panic sell. But there are groups of people who thought 12.xx and 17.xx sen quarter EPS were purely driven by customer order and projected very high growth rate and rate the stock at RM 5++ or RM 7++ might be caught in the trap that they setup for themselves. These people might be panic due to over position in this stock and got into a panic. The shares will change hand from these people to conservative investors.

Posted by observatory > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

I agree that, adjusted for forex, the core result isn't that alarming. However, the decline in revenue (RM181m in 4Q22, versus RM300m in 3Q22, and RM261m in 4Q21) cannot be explained by exchange rate. Sales to Wistron has dropped even more. So the question is will revenue be depressed in the coming quarters?

Posted by Sardin > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Hi Uptrending, looking at the figures I feel that Wistron is pulling away some order which they thought not to be shared for long-term but only temporary coorperation according to agreement. However, it seems to me that FPI is able to replace these orders with higher margin product from other customers, which is a good thing that we should be happy to see it (normally only strong product command a higher margin and strong product usually come with a brand owned by an excellent company).

Posted by Sardin > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Insiders have the advantage to react faster. However, not everyone is smart and be able to read the meaning behind the figures. Some of them might have done the wrong decision too quickly due to this advantage. The real world is full of fun.

Posted by uptrending > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

This Q, the revenue is a disaster. Revenue lost from Wistron was not replaced with non-Wistron revenue which also came down significantly even after adjustment for forex effects.

Top line is far more important than the bottom line. Inventory is also down not speaking well for future revenues..

Posted by Jokers2020 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

hope dont drop like keinhin n chinhin shit..haha

Posted by pinnaclegrade > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

I see this opportunity to add or average down... buy during panic.. only 1 bad quarter doesn't change the fundamentals & long term investment thesis

Posted by CharlesT > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

touch 2.98....quite a sharp drop of 47 cents..

At this level of RM3.00+, after ex div of 21 cents = RM2.80+...quite close to their ESOS level of 2.55...should be quite safe for now

Then depends on their coming Q results

Posted by PeacefulWarrior > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Agree. Just keep adding, even without capital appreciation, the dividend from this company is good enough to keep for long term.

Posted by Sardin > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

@Uptrending, Q4 revenue dip is due to following main reasons I think: (1) switch of product from low margin product to high margin product (low margin product is normally come with huge order but low profit). That's why if you don't count FOREX lost there is actually 8.xx sen per share earning in Q4. (2) festive season in Q4 will result in lesser output (3) back log (accumulated due to difficulty to get container and and high shipping cost) has been cleared quite a lot in Q3 so Q4 revenue would not be as much as Q3. That also explained the improved inventory level. Also, inflation peaked in Q3 last year so there will be inventory value adjustment in Q4. Therefore I think EPS 35 sen per year is sustainable in 2023 and whether or not it is able to make more I guess will depend on other external factors. The following growth will be depending on the trend of smart home, application of IoT and AI, home theater (see the trend of Netflix subscriber, for example).

Posted by donnybelowski > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Garbage results, garbage company. There u go

Posted by troy88 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Unexpected result. Terrible QR.

Posted by goody99 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

The problem is that they do not provide more explanation in their QR, so we can not access the situation and know what problems they face. How long the problem will persist? They have done nothing to calm investors. Nobody likes uncertainty.

Posted by uptrending > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

A major Gap Down is bearish.
Let Mr Market tell us...

Good Luck to all.

Posted by Sardin > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Goody99, you're right they do not do detailed explanation. But they do mention forex loss of 13 mil in Q4. Net profit of Q4 is 8 mil. So if there were no forex loss then the profit would have been 21 mil which is still an healthy level. Also, if you divided the tax by profit before tax you'll get 39% tax rate while cukai makmur only 33%. This was only around 25% in Q3 and Q3 already accumulated more than 100 mil profit before tax. So I think FPI under estimate the tax payable in Q3 and some of these tax has to be paid in Q4, and that's why 39% in Q4. If you do the same math for Q3, the EPS disregarding the 18 mil forex gain is only around 10 sen. So I think these findings should be sufficient to calm yourself. 40% of revenue but profit (without considering forex) drops only 25% QoQ so you know the most profitable business stay.

Posted by Sardin > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

I think the storm is over. Very soon a new cycle will begin.

Posted by pinnaclegrade > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

only newbies panic sell this company... lol

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

This stock fair value around rm 2.20 only bro , who ask u be a gambler to chase high , u deserve to lose money ! Ask u buy dnex but laugh at me , dnex , vstec , swift haulage is a 10 fold gain stock , dont say i never share with u ! Dont be a bodoh get dividen trap but lose 50% capital when insider dump faster than u , no need think what are the reasons behind this dump just leave right now because it s still over value !

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

This stock will drop to 2 - 2.30 in 2023 !

Posted by Sardin > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

I don't think so. Insiders are picking up at 3.xx. Who's dare or motivated to hold and turn the tide at current situation? Value investor like to wait further, only informed and organised large capital has the insight at what level it should get into the market and they are competing with each other to enter at this price. So that's why I think the storm is over.

Posted by Sardin > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Unless a company is a total piece of shit. Otherwise, insiders will exploit both the greed and fear of other investors. Yes they dump, but they pick up too.

Posted by Sardin > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

And it is an open secret that these speculating insiders are not the core investors (the trading volume tells). Therefore serious investors would not simply buy and sell and react in this situation. Those who are participating actively in the trading today, they are not actually the one or important roles that decide whether or not this company will thrive or doing worse.

Posted by scanner > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

FPI forex loss is due to year end closing date cut off point resulting to forex loss. Although you have hedge the forex eventually will and back to next month account as forex again. I noticed that the company EPS is very much better than many other companies which the EPS is so much less but the share price is higher than this company. The director declare 21 sen dividend showing the company is still in good shape with higher cash in hand.

Posted by CharlesT > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

I panic bought at 3.00+....its ridiculous...ex div 0.21= rm2.80+ only

Posted by CharlesT > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

The Esos price of rm2.55 seems to be a strong support for the last 2 years+.

However, the coming Q results will tell n decide future price movement

Posted by CharlesT > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Only God n insiders will know....lol

Posted by DestinyL > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Picked up 3.02, probably will keep very long

Posted by pang72 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Many stock jump water after QR...

Posted by Value Investor Coo1eo > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Koyak

Posted by pinnaclegrade > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

patiently waiting to deploy funds...

Posted by Sardin > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Does anyone know Mr. Shih Chao Yuan chinese name?

Posted by pinnaclegrade > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

so much fear in the market, the time is now !