My estimation:
Net operating profit = 520M
Associate contribution =100M
forex loss = -200M
PAT=420M
Dividend =10cent

PAT should be around 250-500M, wont off too much from this figure. So nothing special.

I always say that forex loss is not that material because it is not fair to count it as losses. For example, if you buy a car =100K USD (1USD : 4 Ringgit) and use it for UBER business in malaysia. Depreciate in ringgit will cost you pay more ringgit in instalment but your (car) still worth in USD. Let say current market price for this is 80K USD, now 1USD: 5 Ringgit, your car still worth 400k ringgit, but you already book 80k depreciation in account. Will you book this extra 80k as profit? Nope! I think is not fair to recognize the forex loss as direct losses in this case.

Don't forget AA is going to spin-off in AAC and get some handsome cash. Weaken in ringgit mean AA will receive higher price for AAC in ringgit.

I always no worried about core business for AA. Personally I more concern on the binding offer for AAC. 1.2B USD for AAC please!!!!!! Got more than 10 bidders, so 1.2B USD might really happened. 1.2B x 4.45 ringgit = 5.34 Billion Ringgit. Distribute RM1.00 per share as dividend, u still have 2B ringgit in AA pocket. Gearing is definitely below 1.0 at that time.

Let's see will supermx2 delete the msg again later. Hahaha...

valuegrowth, actually i got similar view with you on AAX. Maybe really can consider buy some if the price is cheaper than current price. It's the trigger point to growth faster in future.

cruger12345, Ya, but lower forex loss will be more presentation. Just like handsome guy will attract more gals in initiate stage. But when they find out your pocket is kosong, then will cabut. Lol.. Now AA is not handsome but pocket got a lot of money. Hahaha..
Never worried about the core earning and the cash flow itself. Q4 always strongest in net operating profit for AA. In term of cash flow, it's healthy and depend how much TF wanna distribute as dividend only. And TF also say that all associate will contribute positive profit this Q, hope those associates contribute more this quarter.

TF told us that 10 cent weaker in ringgit will caused 20M ringgit forex loss. If this is truth, forex loss is about 100M only. Hopefully is 100M but not 300M in forex loss.

ya, agreed with cruger. But if you let me choose between AA or AAX, i will still stick with AA. Hehe..

valuegrowth, hahaha.. good one..
but AA already do their best in forex gain / loss. Last Q result already show a very good control on forex loss. As long as revenue and net operating profit keep improve, i think we can just ignore forex gain/loss when we study it in fundamental way.

Revenue pun increasing a lot, just the result distort by forex gain loss which is purely accounting item but not cash.

No wo, have a quick look on AAX. I personally think that AAX is better than last year Q4 wo.. net operating profit is 100M leh.. more than 2 cent for 40 cent share in 1 quarter, not good enough ar?

100M net operating profit sound good to me. Convert to per share = 2.2 cent. 1 quarter earn 2.2 cent with 40 cent share still not good meh? forex loses is purely accounting but not cash. Wont impact much.

By the way, for C-34, Some say issuer will manipulating the price but i will think oppositely in this case.

Issuer (CIMB) may buy more AA to hedge the exposure on C-34 instead of short it to lower price. This is align with their recommendation to buy more on AA with Target price RM3.45. Total market value for c-34 is about 13M only. But today volume already break 100M. It is easier for you to perform hedging strategy instead of manipulating the price.

Anyway, Im very new to warrant and never observe the behavior of share price when it near to expired date. Appreciate if someone will share some view on this also. Thanks.

@ Winningpost
Do you know will us when receive the pay cheque from issuer? 1 week after expired date? Pay into bank account or investment account?

Will AAX give a good indicator for AA tomorrow? Let us study AAX tonight.

yeah, transaction amount is more than 100M today.. Should be something big happen. Wish Q4 have great result and some good news on AAC as well.. Cheers!!

2ez4airasia, luckily im not the only one who saw the msg from supermx2. If not, I look like kaki gong kaki song. Lol..

I also think that 4.0 is not likely to happen. But hard to tell one. I never expect AA will drop to 2.20 in 2016 even the whole year performance is awesome.

opps, supermx2 delete his msg liao.. wakakaka..

supermx2, when the price at 2.40, u say the same thing before, when the price at 2.60, you repeat the same wording. Now at 2.80 liao still argue will the same thing. How many times you wanna repeat it again? When it reach 3.00 and 3.30, i bet that you will say the same thing again.. Bro, you not tired, i pun tired liao..
later when reach 3.80 and you try to enter it. Once it drop to 3.50 then you will keep "cry father cry mother" and blaming AA is not good. Can you really earn money from stock market with this attitude? Wish you luck ba..

I will hold all of them until materialize of AAC or listed in HK unless the price is above RM4.00 before this two big items. Cheers!

feicsh: Do you know about when can we receive pay cheque from issuer? A week after expired date?

STC1136, FYI, Q4 result will release on 23 Feb.

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/02/14/diary-malaysia-2017-corporate-earnings/

RenegadeMaster, if you have few thousand biji, will you sell all at 3.50 or partially sell it from 3.00 till 4.00? lol

ya, sound a bit weird to me. Actually I plan to sell partially if the premium is positive for c-34. But it never happened after CNY.

Thanks, winningpost and supersaiyan3

Sorry, is anyone here know why C-34 still can trade? I tot yesterday is last trading day.

hopefully the price will maintain 2.75 and above for next 5 trading days. This is 1st time I hold my warrant until expired, a bit nervous. lol.. If tomorrow announce AAC bidding price with 1.2B USD, I wont be surprise if AA kena UMA. haha..

@ supermx2
I'm welcome you to pour cold water if your statement supported with fact. Your statement such as "wont be surprise if fall back to 2.6 again tomorrow" is telling nothing. It is something like i telling someone that "wont be surprise if move back to 3.3 again tomorrow". It is meaningless to say something like this.

We are open for discussion to gain some knowledge here. Putting salt into a wound like what you normally do wont gain anything at the end.

I just hope that the next five trading days will maintain good trading mood like today. I huat liao if the price fall between 2.75- 3.00. hahaa... Long term investor always aware that Q4 will have good result, so not the best booster for AA now. I still think that the best chemical for AA is still rely on AAC offer.

At first Im not really believe on "business" too good. But when i visit KLIA2 few times recently. Then you will understand why TF say business too good liao.

today should be last trading day for C-34.. now cant trade, purely rely on luck now. Lol..

luckily i plan to hold C-34. Should be quite safe to holding now. Quite signifciant safety of margin there. lol.

supermx2, please honor your word (leave AA forum forever as you say before). Concentrate more on your own investment such as VS. Don't waste your time here since you are not interest in AA anymore.

Q4 report will release on 23 Feb, already make announcement.

My 1st buy for AA is 2.90 and keep accumulated until 2.20. Not yet sell any single mother share. Just buy in and sell out for C-34 in between. I keep convince myself that AA will reach 3.30 in this year. Will my dream come true within this year? Lol.. 2.7 sound a good start. Hope it can reach 3.30 very very soon. Super confidence that AA will break 3.00 this year. But 3.30 might face a bit challenge. But base on my valuation on AA, AA worth more than 3.50.
For long term investor, see u all during AGM. hehe..

30 cent is equal to 1b ringgit. In term of cash flow and growth in future, better don't distribute too much. Need to maintain low Gearing. Slightly above 10 cent is good enough for me.

@ dnn78 Sorry, i think the last trading day for c-34 is 21 Feb.
@ Why_ What is your definition of gambler? Lol.. I bought C-34 since 0.30 until 0.10. In between got sell and buy la.. But now I just plan to hold it until expired. Q4 is always strongest operation profit in a year, no reason for me to sell my warrant now.

I think 22 Feb is the the last day of trading for c-34 but not 23 Feb. Congrat to you. I did not top up on C-34 already, only keep buying mother share.

Fast fast go higher, my c-34 wanna expired liao

Go back to square one. RM3.00.. lol

@supersaiyan3, congrat to you. You want to treat us? lol
By the way, any specific reason for you to pick DAYA in your portfolio? Just wan learn something new.

Meet my friend last night. She took a flight from singapore to KLIA2 yesterday. She had been waiting for her singapore colleagues for half an hour because too many person queuing. The flight delay 1 hour as well due to traffic. Can you imagine how full is it in KLIA2? Demand keep increasing so far. I believe taking flight will become taking LRT in future. Now now but not too far from now already.

@ curious. Do you dare to have a side-bet? I will cut my finger if AA make losses in 16Q4 and you will cut yours if AA make profit. If not dare please diam diam la..

@ supersaiyan3, 1 more point for your consideration.
5. Expect to have 10 cent annual dividend for AA which is 3.7% dividend yield at current price.

@ curious2
I don't know what is your intention at AA forum. But you seem like know nothing at all. Let say IB's forecast about AA in 2016 is 40-50cent. But Q1 to Q3 already achieve 56.5 cent. Then u telling us that AA will doing bad in Q4 to match the forecast result? Are you serious? You already have actual result to refer but still force yourself to refer forecast result? hahahahaha.....

Ohh.. is it true MAS always cancel their flight? I'm not aware on this. I always support Airasia when I buy flight ticket. 肥水不流外人田 since I'm shareholder of AA. Hahaha...

Maybe another reason for AA to have lower loading factor in Q4 compare to Q3 is MAS achieve record high loading factor 90% in Dec 2016. But bare in mind MAS still make losses even they have 90% loading factor. I believe that MAS is try to testing some new pricing method on air-ticket by improving loading factor and lower down the ticket price. But at the end, it's still does not meet their target to have breakeven. Dont think that MAS would like to try lower down again. MAS have to admit something wrong in their operation but not the air-ticket price and loading factor itself..

@Air_Asia
When u read IBs' analysis, your may ignore the forex gain/loss impact in AA quarterly report. If forecast of AA 2016 EPS is 40-50 sen. So expected EPS is 10-12 cen per quarter and Q4 always the best quarter for AA. Easily to have 12 cen EPS for 16Q4

@ Air_Asia - Q4 result is important for me to buy Airasia for long term. But I hope AA will reach 10B market cap after selling of AAC and listing in HK in this year to better reflect is valuation. I just believe that Q4 good result wont effect much on the price movement in short while.

What TF always doing now is try to push higher valuation price for AA. Selling AAC, list in HK, reflect better balance sheet in fture, etc... Even today also got news on AA: AA appointed IsItUp.com to track and optimise fixed assets. This is one of the action for TF to push valuation price of AA higher.

@ cwingz
I already have a lot of C34, no much available cash now. Your "benefit from it" is it refer to "buy now to earn the negative premium of warrant"?

meathere,

Ya, My current allocation now is 65% mother and 35% c34. I know the consequence when I decide to hold the c34. But I'm really not good when it come to guessing the price movement in short term due to it's volatility. Even the "red green green" trend that I introduce before is not really work now. Hahaha... So maybe do nothing now is the best move for me. When I receive the payout for C34, only check the price of AA again. Below 2.8 is still cheap to me, that y i plan to buy more if below 2.8. If above 2.8, then just hold my 65% and monitor it 1st.

The best chemical to boost AA now should be AAC but not Q4 result. From last q experience, 16Q3 result is very good in my view (well management in forex, high revenue, good operational profit, improvement in associate), but the price keep dropping until Jan 2017. So I believe the increasing of price from Jan 2017 until now us mainly due to AAC and listing in HK soon. Hopefully TF dont announce any price offer for AAC between 28 Feb to 7 March. It's really killing me if he do so.. hahaha..