About 30 cents per share + annual dividend I would expect 8 cent. Quite handsome dividend already with 14% dividend yield. Core earning will cut 25%, around 100m per quarter but saving in interest should be around 60-70m. Thus, net impact will be 40m per quarter. Base on 2016 result n cut 160m per annum private placement impact, expected earning is around 43 cents. With pe *8, target price is rm3.44. If 多listing in hk, I will expect pe will reach 10 in future.

@New2Invest2016, for rm1.05 from selling of AAC, my guess is most of them will declare as special dividend since TF need money to pay off his private placement. But i refer AA to use it to clear debt. Debt ratio will significantly reduce to very handsome level. But either one is jz fine for me. I jz hope it can sell higher than 1b usd.

Duo listing in hk Sound a good news to me as well

5th Dec announced bidding result on AAC, seem like offer stick with 1b usd which is around rm1. 05 per share. Seem like my one month vege plan I am not going to happen (if 1.2b n above, I eat vege for whole month). Lol

Am I criticize u? I jz say I don't understand. Lol

BuyWithConviction, u may guess it right about "today" market price. But sorry to say that I don't buy "big picture". Tired to monitor the price. My next move is doing nothing n wait for AAC news. Haha

Seem like I too optimistic about q3 result to reflect into market price. Lol.. But my target price still remain unchanged rm4.0

@ BN_Menang, dividend policy for airasia should be base on operation profit but n eps. Expected to have 48 cent operation profit. Thus I will expect 8-9 cent dividend this year which is not bad.

Expected to have 1.6b core profit in 2016 but only 1.0b core profit in 2017. Really not sure how they calculated. If someone forecast 1.6b core profit base on their mythology, should the target price revised to RM4.0 (2.5x1.6)? lol... I use PE 8 to set my target price as well. Just PBB set their core earning quiet low.

Just go through PBB analysis. The major indicator to have lower target price should be lower core earning in 2017 even though they forecast to have higher revenue in 2017. Not sure why they set lower core earning. They forecast increasing in fuel price?

haha, all maintain their target price include PBB with RM2.50. This PBB seem like reluctant to give higher target price although the result is above expectation.

hi Icon8888, where can find more information for bidding of AAC? Can share us the link?

BuyWithConviction, your comment is just like "You are going to die some day, be cautious". Everyone will die in future. So I really cant understand your big picture, small picture or naked picture. I try every angle to view your comment already but I still cant get anything.

Can't,*

Investo, what's wrong with me if I say that the value AA is much valuable that the current share price? At least I try to learn something here since I'm still newbie in share market. I do not attack anyone if u view back my comments. I jz looking for more informative n try to filter uninformative comments. Tell me what I can learn from ur "win-win plan" n BuyWithConviction "big picture" and "no crystal ball" which I can get any info here. Maybe my level is too low to find out what does it mean. Lol

Let's guess tomorrow closing price, I will say 2.87? Lol

Thanks to STC n Feicsh on your sharing

BuyWithConviction, your win win plan work well. Increase then say that u earning money, decrease then say that I ald told u on "big picture"

BuyWithConviction, I don't want to be rude but let's talk about forward thinking on AA, so far the trend show growth, roe keep increasing n we saw the forex loss impact is much more smaller than expected. I don't what is your "big picture" on AA. I jz know that if u offer me rm3.0 now I also don want to sell u. Lol..

This PE 3 is quite misleading actually. I think we should exclude the forex gain loss to have better pictures on AA. If exclude Forex gain loss, current PE is about 5-6 which is super good to me. This is my so call "big picture". Lol

Just a friendly reminder to all the investor here, last year Q4 operation profit is 800m. Since Q1-Q3 show improvement in 2016, i will expect Q4 2016 have more than 800m operation profit.. hahaha...

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/AirAsia_Q32016_estimation/

Quite close to my estimation except for deferred tax and currency gain/loss. Always mis-calculated on this part. Have to study harder. Appreciate that if any sifu can teach me on these. Thanks..

Interesting part is foreign exchange losses only 2.7m!!!! from RM4.00 drop to RM4.15 vs 1USD only cause 2.7mil losses. for next q let say from RM4.15 drop to RM4.50, estimated losses will not more than RM10M. Well hedging strategy from AA, well done AA!

http://www.bloombergquint.com/gadfly/2016/11/24/airasia-s-new-lease-of-life

By the way, where to get the news of "conference call" at 6pm leh? I cant find it in google. lol

Refer to the balance sheet of AAC, 1.2b USD sound good enough to me.
@tranquilfinny, I will noted it down and claim from you later. haha..

lol.. asset value for aircraft is always dominated by USD. Aircraft manufacturers such as AirBus wont sell you cheaper if USD is strengthen. lol.. Just my 2 cents.

If AAC can sell with 1.2 billion USD or more, i will eat vege for 1 month.. lol.. ang gong po pi..

By the way, really tired to filter those uninformative msg here especially "big picture" and "win-win plan".

I think that it's too optimistic to estimate 600m profit. At most just 500m. My guess is around 350-400m.
I just wait for AAC news, if AAC can sell 1.2b USD, the price easily can reach 3.30-3.60

I agreed that weaken in ringgit is not a good thing to AA but is not as bad as public thought.
This business is quite simple, is just like buy a car to do a taxi business.
1. Your car is dominated by USD but booked it as Ringgit in accounting. Thus, it may cause a currency loss if weaken in ringgit. But you always can sell your asset in USD. Just like selling in AAC, it still dominated by USD. Your car wont depreciate because of weaken in ringgit. I think TF do a pretty good job in buying and selling asset.
2. Natural hedge since 30% of your revenue collect in foreign currency.
Anyway, I hold a lot of AA, it might be a bias to say AA is good. Lol..
Happy investing and I'm looking good for Q3 2016. Estimated PAT is about 350-400M

Expected to have 10-11 cent EPS after diluted with 20% private placement. All the best for AA. See you in the top by this Friday.

Today is my last entry for AirAsia. 80% of my equity tie with AA. With average price 2.80 for AA and 0.29 for C34.

My estimation also closed to 0.4b which is about 10-11 cent EPS after diluted. With PE 8, the price with be at least RM3.20

Anyone have insider or pub news about AAC? I wait till neck pun long liao.

Forex gain for AA after selling AAC, from 4.0b to 4.5bil, 500m forex gain. lol

I really admirered supermx8, seem no need to work. He is damn free and keep posting here.

Everyday have to filter those spaming msg, this really kill my lifespan.

@Nigel Low, I bought more C34 this morning. With lowest factor in (Premium / Duration) for C34, I think is worth for you to consider it if you would like to buy warrant.

Angelol, can you roughly teach me how to estimate on deferred tax?

Count me in. I will burn incense and pray also.. lol

Today volume seem ok high. Is it because Icon8888 buy a lot? wakakakaka.

@ ignissimia, good write up, much better estimation in forex gain/loss compare to mine. Appreciate your sharing.

For deferred tax, I try few auditor, accountant and tax manager friends, they say that it's super hard to estimate. Thus, I only use past experience trend to estimate it. Could be very off compare to actual. I just try my luck this time. If accurate, then will use this method again in future. If not, will try other methods to estimate.

In 2015 annual report, it's mentioned that 5% weaken in ringgit will cost 293mil forex loss. As at 31 Dec 2015, then currency is 1 USD: 4.29 Ringgit. At at 30 June 2016 is 1 USD: 4.00 Ringgit. The strengthen is about 7.0% which is about 410M gain by estimation which is very close to actual 430M. (with Q1 +464m and Q2 -34). Thus with I use 293M x 3.4% weaken from Q2 16 to Q3 16. Thus, it's about 200M. I slightly adjust down due to the debt is reduce from 12.6b (Q4 15) to 10.7b (Q3 16).

@ CDYS
AirAsia has hedged about 75% of its jet fuel requirement at an average effective cost of US$55 per barrel for year 2016 and 45% of US$58 per barrel for year 2017. Not much impact to AA until 2017.

股海無涯, this is what i learn from you. Appreciate that if you can share yours later for my reference. Appreciate that.

Angelol, the 58% of Usd denominated are hedged by forward contracts. That y my estimation is about 184m

@ ronnietan
Sorry, This is my 1st post and not sure how to adjust it. I will try to present it in better format later.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/AirAsia_Q32016_estimation/105786.jsp

My 1st blog in i3investor. 多多指教