Good closing. After two days fall, today up and shows small candle. Storm affecting UK, France plus Iran factor causing Crude price to go up.

HRC will get good Inventory gain, as they have huge stocks, which if they sell, will reduce borrowings to large extent. Diesel price up, Crack spread still maintain at around USD 9+, as well as for other products like Jet Fuel, Kerosene, Mogas 95, etc.

Our currency strengthening, so will have forex gain.

Noticed that for CE and CF, Investment Bankers Kenanga, RHB pushed up the selling price so that quite difficult to buy as price difference is high. These call warrants quite a bargain as very low premium and maturity after results out.

Hope HRC plrice will go up on Monday. Whole year conservative EPS of 3.60rgt is definitely achievable!! PE of 6x is also very very low for a high growth company with ROE of above 60%.

Price has already touched 19.20 rgt., but has never closed beyond RM 17.96 as there is strong resistance for 18 rgt closing.

For charts not to remain toppish, Price must close above17.96.!!

Call Warrant CD seldom traded ? Rhb IB as market maker should give B/S quotes..

Anyway, fair value at this price should be around 31 to 32 cents.

Tomorrow price may go down, but then later, towards closing may rebound. Monday is generally bullish !
Have calculated the break even value of CK warrant. Conversion Ratio: 18:1, 18 x .715= 12.87. Exercise price is 10.50, Add 10.50 = 23.37 rgt.

At Expiry, 24/7/2018, if HRC less than RM23.37, then you will lose your money !!!

A prudent investor will change to CI, or CH which has less premium, only around 6% compared to around 38 % !!!!

CD, CE, CF better still, less premium and more sensitive to HRC price movement.

Is this high premium of CK showing potential of HRC, can touch 24 rgt in few months time ?

Remember,HRC is a complex refiner, Diesel , Kerosene, crack spread maintained at USD 9+, and Motor Gasoline 95, Mogas 95 sustainable at above USD 8. Ringgit strengthening, Crude Oil Prices up, thus Inventory gain.

RM 3.60 Eps x 6 PE =21 rgt !!!

Up till now, I still wonder why all the Investment Banks keep silent on Heng Yuan?

There is absolutely no write up or official comments on HRC !!! Only TA securities made a comment that the buying was overdone.

I believe HRC fundamentals are still there and has not changed. Should HRC use tax credit to offset taxation, eps for the year is conservatively estimated at 3.60 rgt.

WTI, and Brent price at a high, Mogas 95 stable, Diesel, Kerosene up, thus HRC as complex refiner still enjoy stable Crack spread on average of USD 9+.

Those playing CW, premium will increase when Mom price drops. So CK will be above 40% !!!

Just download klse screener apps and you will see the premium.

If you can afford, the best is CA, CD. Then at lower price is CE and CF. CE and CF expiry is after after end year profit announced !!

CC is not tradeable, and CG is rarely traded or volume very low. At the very least is CH if you cant afford others.

Should you hold CK, take profit, change to other cheaper premium call wrt, or buy Mom, since price is lower.

As always, 3.60 eps x 7 pe, will give you TP before CNY!!!

Some Call Warrants are cheap now, but not CK, a whopping nearly 40% premium. Those playing this CW need their heads to be examined !!!

Ck call warrant valuation is absurd at 36 % premium.

Good if you have justification, as 3.60 eps x PE 7x, so around 22 rgt, should be fine.

Brent, WTI price , near all time high. HRC probably has no tax as they still have tax credit.

Still think Eps for year , conservative is 3.60 rgt x PE 7x, = Around 22 rgt would still be OK, but has room to go higher if PE re rated.

Agree that everyone is entitled to have own opinion. There are always 2 sides of a coin.

Anyway, I just dont understand the rationale of people buying Call Warrant CK. Fair value of HRC nearly 23 rgt to justify the price.

Dont they know the high ratio, and the high premium compared to other CW ?
HRC, possible to touch RM 20 by CNY , and give good AMG Pow to those who believe in it.

Call warrant traders, CK is highly overvalued at 30 % premium !!

From todays chart, looks like HRC can go further up as it is almost similar to Thursday, before the sell off on Friday.

I am not a TA xpert. Just my opinion. Normally correction will extend for a few days. Check past corrections.

It is better to buy bit by bit, rather than all at one go, meaning when price go lower,U can buy more if you are confident that HRC fundamentals still there.i.e. 3.60 eps/yr..

After all weak holders have sold, or when volume done is less, then price may slowly go up bit by bit. This is reversal, and the trend is bullish if higher highs and higher lows. Confidence takes time to rebuild.

The other method, buy on break out means buying when it is higher than 19.20, which to me is not so smart as you are paying more. If you bought at 16.30, then you are able to sell b4 it reaches 19 rgt. waiting

Actually, many waiting for correction as they missed the boat. To me, this selling gives opportunity for many to enter at a low price. We wont know when is the bottom before it goes up, we just have to risk it. Using candlestick or other chart patterns like a hammer,plus confirmation will be good.

For those buying Call Warrant, please check the premium. Some CW are ridiculously high, and some are very low and a bargain as it is pushed lower by the IB.

Bearish engulfing candle, so price may go down.

Noticed IB purposedly push prices down at 4.45pm , resulting in wide gap between buyers and sellers for CE, CF.

They are the market makers and they are caught, so wants the price to go down !!!

When you see 500 buyers, 500 sellers, they are at work, dictating the market price.

Profit taking healthy. Before going up, it goes down.

Fundamentals of HRC does not change. EPS for 2017 is RM 3.60 the least.

CK is highly overvalued !! 18 x 62 = 11.16 + 10.50 = RM 21.66 !!!

Divided by closing of 17.96 =3.70 difference/17.96 = 21 % Premium.


Obviously somebody got carried away, or typed wrongly !!

PE 7x, Year eps is 3.60, i.e 2.40 + 1.20 ( 4 th qtr ), so RM 25 loh.!!

After KYY write up, modest target of middle path is ;3.60 eps x 7x PE, = RM 25. I know lots of people have sold at or around RM17.

Now there are more buyers, so TP of 18 reachable by tomorrow !! Can price above be reachable by CNY ?

To me, HRC fundamentals are very strong and solid and should not warrant price going to below 10, unless and until unwanted incidence happens - like - fire, tsunami, earthquake, unexpected shut downs, etc.

Initially I was very sceptical, and refused to believe even tho OTB asked us to buy as early as below 7 RGT.!!

After reading, poring over the various blogs and reading the Annual Report, then only tried to buy a bit. By then, price has gone up to almost 10 rgt !!

Losing money in the market due to lots of losses, decided to take a risk. Sold off most of my losing shares and concentrate major portion of capital on HRC.

The rest is history. since then recovered all my losses. Amen.

Investee, Call warrants are unlike company warrants which can be converted to mother share, and thus dilute the eps.

They CW are issued by IB that makes money from the issuance. CW no need get time consuming approval from authorities.

They are cash settled on maturity by calculating the intrinsic value versus market value. They are like Options in US market.

After HRC published in Xinhua news, noticed that the daily gains were much higher. China Funds buying, and to them this price is really dirt cheap.

December coming to an end, and all the positive factors still remain intact. We can safely estimate that 4 th quarter eps will be 1.20 rgt, if not more. Thus, total eps is RM 3.60 for year. Based on present Petron Malaysia PE of 8, then present price is still LOW.!!

For those who dont want to miss the boat, and aware of the risk, but also know the potential rewards, can try buying Call warrants since coughing up RM 1,650 is difficult for 1 lot.

CA, CD is the best. After this comes CE, CF call warrant based on the lower the premium and the lower the conversion ratio the better. CH price, should theoretically be below CF, but at present almost equal although it is 12: 1.

Noticed that CC is very seldom traded, and CG always low volume traded, and wide range exist among buyers and sellers.

For New Year and CNY Ang Pow, take a calculated risk!!! No risk, no gain right ? If price falls below the support, cut loss. this type of opportunity seldom happen.

However, looking at HRC pattern, price goes down only a little, but shoots up very fast. This is despite no write up from Investment Bankers, aka Fund Managers. !!! This is a very great mystery.

As always, the Final Decision is yours to make.

Fantastic day. Seems 18 rgt within reach. 3.60eps x pe 5. China funds, and locals buying.

Up till today, still wondering why Inv Banks do not dare to do a write up on HRC, but Public Invest wrote on Petron.

Why ah ? Scared if they do write up, price can only go higher due to strong fundamentals?

Brent Crude at all time high !!

Two write ups in one day, no wonder price go up like rocket.!!!

One is local Edge news, the other in China, - Xinhua news. So it entices local and Chinese investors to go in.

Ringgit 18, within reach, i.e. PE 5x, EPs of 3.60 per year. These figures are very, very conservative estimates only.

Capital gains from shares are not taxable !!

Very undervalued. Price can only go higher is people know more about the value of Inari shares it holds and the business it is in.

Lost tons of money on YTL and Atta, but thanks to HRC, managed to cover all my losses !!!

Coming to the next year, I believe HRC can still deliver as the EPS of RM 3.60 is the highest in BUrsa. It is still Tax Free.

ROE of 65%, so far nobody can beat it, as paid up is only 300 million.

Considering 2017 as a whole, Return of around 15 % is still not bad.

Share with strong fundamentals. PE is very low. High profits. Very transparent in their reporting as in the bullish Steel sector.

A Gem that is waiting for right time to move. Fair value should be RM 1.00

Met an Ex Shell employee of over 20 years recently and discussed about HRC. He did not oppose my views on all the positive factors given, but cautioned that Petronas project coming onstream later, and their serious financial position may have an effect on HRC.

As KYY said, the price is on high side and not everybody can afford it. So it certainly is institutions buying as it is a Huge bargain to get such a high quality stock with an ROE of above 65 %. eps 3.60/ nta of 5.52.

Linggi at Melaka will become major port of call when completed. Thus HRC is strategically located to benefit from the many ships plying the route and requiring fuel.

Dec 2017 coming to an end and so far Brent price is above RM 60, and crack spread average is above USD 9/++ Ringgit appreciates, so forex gain, the huge inventory also gained much as Crude oil is high.

So many positive factors. Very sure 4 th quarter eps will be above RM 1.20. Conservative estimate at low PE is still 3.60 x 5 = RM 18 rgt.

Please confine to HRC and not to promote other shares. so far no negative news, but lots of positive news for HRC.

Please have a summary for those who wrote in Chinese so others can follow. Thank YOu.

Hope those new to this HRC forum, will read up first . There were many detailed explanations given. Suffice to say HRC is in good hands and is a good share to hold.

At present it is undergoing correction. First , it was shooting Star, leading many to sell as this is bearish. Later , an engulfing candle appeared, which is a bullish indicator.

Many hoping price will go down further, but it is yet to be seen. You can punt on this share by using Call Warrant, which is cheaper than buying Mom.

Dont buy CW based on lowest price as the conversion ratio is high, - 20:1. Check on the premium and maturity.

Never buy CW that is not liquid, few buyers, few or no sellers. Most liquid CW, may not be the best choice as it may be overvalued. Choose lowest premium, but fairly liquid with sufficient time before maturity.

Well written. Hopefully HRC will not disappoint many. Present scenario is, how much it will fall, before climbing back. Will it be below 14 rgt ?

KYY still buying. thus, all forumers can consider what he said.

If can hold longer, better, price will go up.

RM3.60 eps, PE 10x, therefore, new TP 36 rgt !!!

Apa macam, Heng Yuan Boleh !!!

Sold CH too soon when premium went higher compared to other CW !!!

Remember, it is a cash settled warrant, IB will finally pay you for its

Intrinsic Value, and NOT the premium when CW matures.!!!

Awet91, are you aware of the conversion ratio of CK ? Try not to go for cheap CW, but look at the details, especially the premium, i.e. value you pay for , over the intrinsic value.

Still believe now time for CE, Cf to move !!! CH has already jumped a lot, and has to rest, ha ha.

Anyway, PetronM has advantage over HRC in that it now has no debt, can declare higher dividend, and earnings can touch 50 cents or higher this quarter, plus it has its retailing arm.

iFag, if can afford, of course CA and CD. If looking for value, then can buy CE, CF. CG is good but liquidity is a problem as it is thinly traded.

CH, which was highlighted by me, has gone up too high.

Try to download KLSE screener apps, it is a very, very useful apps !!! It calculates the premium and ratio of the call warrants.

Thomas, Tech stocks are still hot - Inari, Penta, VS, Vitrox. Penta has insider selling shares, so not so good. You can consider Vitrox CD at around 25 cents.

Try to look at Leon and Masteel, Choo Bee cos steel sector should be OK also.

Today, took some profit, but still holding some shares. Will be buying when HRC undergoes consolidation.

Thomas, buy Vitrox call warrant, cheap.

Also, steel stocks , especially LeonFB, and Masteel.

Gamuda C 39 is also extremely cheap. I bought at much higher price.

Happy, we beat Petron, ha ha ha.!!! Heard HRC may consider granting people and Analyst for briefing. After IB write up, guess ?

If that happens, guess 18 rgt can be reached early !! I think value wise, CE, CF better as lower ratio.

Fat CNY AngPow !! Siapa boleh kasi right !!

Still not to late to go to HRC call warrant. Conservative eps 4 th qtr for HRC is RM 1.20, so total yr eps is RM 3.60

At PE 5x, value should be RM 18.

Asked traders buy CH, now jumped lots. Time to go for HRC CE, and CF which is fairly valued for its long maturity, after HRC results known by end February.

Anyway, have also bought some PetronM shares.

Thomas Han, did you buy the call warrant ?

Alamak, told some HRC CH undervalued. Now, vroom like rocket !! Sayang, sold too early!!

Now Ch overvalued. Time for CE, and Cf to move. Wanna Join ?

Thks Sifu OTB, KYY !! not forgetting Stock raider for his confidence !!

Target RM 15.50 can be reached by 31/12!!

BY CNY, can reach TP 21 ?

KYY wrote that when all IBs are bullish on certain stocks, maybe time to sell.

So now, there has yet to be a reco by IBs, then it is time to be contrarian and buy1

Richman 96, e mail to Mr Ooi Teik Bee at tbooifx@gmail.com. remember, you also have to do FA and TA before you decide.

sometimes, he also makes mistakes as he has no insider info. But he is good. Asked us to buy Heng Yuan below RM 7, but most hesistated as we think price is already high.

If using 3rd quarter results, then full year eps is RM3.60 !! Believe this is v.conservative estimate.

Already close to end Dec, Oct and NOv , and probably Dec margin spread average USD9+.

Brent Crude, more than USD 60 !! Inventory gain.

Ringgit appreciate, relative to USD, so forex gain.

I think re rating will occur as earnings clearly visible, stable and consistent high profit, and IB takes notice. Fair PE say 7x. Focus and Edge magazines published write up.

Thus, maybe TP of 21 is conservative and have to increase to RM 25 !!

A good Christmas gift and CNY Ang Pow for those who believe and act on it !!

As Hoolahoo mentioned, Heng Yuan is very undervalued, and switching to HRC made me to recover my losses.

Target of 15 rgt is very conservative. Many have Target of 21 rgt !!

Read comments on HRC and you will know the reasons for their optimism .

Mind sharing the basis of your statement that it is undervalued. Thanks.

So far, only Heng Yuan has planned for upgrading to Euro 4M. Petron has yet to do so.

BY the way, many forumers has target of RM21. Can I know the basis of the calculation, is it based on EPS, and PE same as present PetronM ?

At the time Shell sold to HRC, crack margin was almost negative and losing money.

Now it is opposite, and refiners will be making billions of money !! If HRC turns in 1 rgt eps for 4 th quarter, then total year profit, exceeds 1 billion !!! Up to 3 rd quarter already RM2.40 eps.!!

300m paid up share capital of 1 rgt, x eps of 3.40 rgt. Target very, very conservative = RM15.

yes, C31 is cheaper, lower premium and higher volume.

C34 has advantage of longer expiry date, though more expensive by 3x. Premium almost comparable.

People buy CW for their gearing effect, small outlay of capital , and a chance to gain profit, which without CW, you dont have ability to participate.

When HRC ordinary shares go up, in most cases, the CW price will normally go up, UNLESS some force, try to stifle the advance so that they can buy more before price go up !!! Just like accumulation of shares b4 they push price up.

Go to Malaysia warrants com my by Macquire to understand more.

Hai yah, susah susah, just close your eyes lah, buy or trade on paper to understand more OK. You have to pay for your lessons !! I lost a lot on YTL call warrant C8, buying 6 figure amount at 9 cents, but HRC helped me to recover. Be assured , good that not many believe in HRC, otherwise you cant get CW, at such LOW premium !!

Over and out.