Folks, the rise of budget carriers in Asia has pushed some legacy airlines in the region to copy their successful models. Soon there will be overcapacity of budget carriers also!

So how? Heheheheheheheh!!

There are worries that overcapacity could plague Asian carriers because of the rapid pace of their expansion combined with the resumption of orders in the past year by full-service airlines and aggressive Chinese carriers.

Hmmmmmmm!! So how? Heheheheheheheh!!

The battle for supermacy amongst Malaysian airlines will be very good for MAHB as sharply lower fares will spur passenger traffic.

Well folks, we also gain as ticket fares has became cheaper every month! Heheheheheheheh!!

The intense competition among airlines is likely to persist in 2014 which is good for passengers. As new entrant Malindo has triggered a new round of price competition. Because of this MAS & Airasia has been injecting capacity since May this year. So folks that the reason of overcapacity which has caused flights cancellation by both airlines!

Investors have short memories!!

Already frequencies are being added feverishly and discounted airfares are becoming the norm. Budget airlines with large orders seem to be aware of the challenges ahead.

According to OAG data as of January 27, the total Asia Pacific fleet stands at 5,436 aircraft (plus 75 “in storage”) with a further 3,202 on order.

Can the rally continue? Heheheheheheheh!!

Folks, the upshot of the combination of factors is lower load factors and reduced yields… That in turn implies damage to airlines’ bottom lines in what is now an intensely competitive market, with low-cost airlines, Gulf carriers and Chinese airlines all vying for larger shares of markets that were historically the territory of the region’s flag carriers.

How? A small leak can sink a GREAT ship! Hahahahahahahah!!

Five new airlines were launched in Asia last year. What worries equity investors is overcapacity and a rise in fuel prices. If fuel spikes, yields will fall. As a result of overcapacity, business will be down.

Investors have short memories! Hehehehehehehheheh!!

Folks, record aircraft deliveries are under way this year despite the slow growth in traffic. Overall, Asia Pacific airlines have 520 aircraft on firm order for delivery over the next three years, of which 120 are widebodies, with many of the new deliveries additional rather than replacement aircraft. This equates to 15 aircraft deliveries per month—a rate that could more than double when leased additions are factored in.

So how? Hahahahahahahahah!!

Even as Asia Pacific airlines survived a testing 2011, overcapacity as a result of increased fleet orders is still concerning investors, who are already less willing to finance procurements in the current debt-laden environment.

Can the rally continue? Careful now folks!

Folks, the budget airline industry is likely to grow slower this year mostly because of overcapacity.

Can the rally continue?

AirAsia India may miss 2013 deadline

It’s not helping matters that the airline’s costs and projections are already out of whack. It is paying salaries to its 200-odd employees every month, while the rupee charts its own course. A senior AirAsia India employee told a news portal, on condition of anonymity, that calculations have gone awry — but not enough to pose a real problem as they have budgeted for some delays in clearances.

Also trouble for AirAsia as Swamy files PIL in Delhi HC on 4 Oct 2013, challenges clearance. So how?

AirAsia India may miss 2013 deadline

There were murmurs on this count when the proposal was cleared in March, but those were ignored. But then Swamy took the matter to court. The PIL didn’t stop the NOC from coming through, but it did cause damage.

On 04 Oct, 2013 BJP leader Subramanian Swamy moved the Delhi high court seeking an order restraining the Centre from granting any approval to AirAsia for its operations in India.

AirAsia India may miss 2013 deadline

Folks, on 18 September, the Delhi High Court’s acceptance of the PIL came as a rude shock to the new venture. The court asked the ministries of finance, commerce and civil aviation, the Director General of Civil Aviation and AirAsia to respond. The petition argues that the government in September 2012 allowed foreign airlines to invest in Indian carriers already in operation. And since neither AirAsia, the Tatas nor Telstra (the other partner) is operating an airline in India as of now, the clearance does not stand.

Heheheheheheh!!

AirAsia India may miss 2013 deadline

Folks, about a month before the original proposed date of launch, six months after the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) gave its clearance, and one day before receiving a no-objection certificate (NOC) from the aviation ministry, AirAsia India, the Tatas and AirAsia Berhad’s chief Tony Fernandes got a rude shock. While the partners probably did not expect the clearances to be quick, they also did not anticipate the Delhi High Court to accept the public interest litigation (PIL) filed by Subramanian Swamy against the FIPB clearance.

Hmmmmm.... HEHEHEHHEHE!!

Folks, the fiscal showdowns in Washington haven't yet resulted in doomsday. The stock market's recent selloff has been remarkably controlled. Just a smooth, easy, decline. Not the chaotic, nerve-wracking declines seen in August 2011 after the last debt ceiling showdown resulted in the loss of America's AAA credit rating.

That won't last. The market is starting to panic. Careful now, folks! Heheheheheheheh!!

Folks, in the report, HSBC said the downturn reflected weakness in India's service sector economy, with manufacturing activity also deteriorating, but at a slower rate than in August.

The bank's report came one day after the International Monetary Fund sharply downgraded its growth outlook for India in its world economic report. The body now forecasts India will grow by 3.8 percent this year and 5.1 percent in 2014.

Also on Tuesday, the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) warned that middle-income Asian countries, such as India, China, Indonesia and Malaysia must implement structural reforms over the medium term in order to achieve their growth potential.

Folks, Indian manufacturing and service sector activity fell for a third successive month in September, posting the steepest decline since March 2009, according to a HSBC report published on Wednesday.

The country's Purchasing Mangers' Index (PMI) — a closely watched indicator of a country's business strength — was 46.1 in September, down from 47.6 in the previous month. A reading above 50 signals an expansion in activity, while a reading below this level indicates a contraction.

So folks, can the rally continue? Heheheheheheh!!

Also on Tuesday 09/10/13, the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) warned that middle-income Asian countries, such as China, India, Indonesia and Malaysia must implement structural reforms over the medium term to achieve their growth potential.

Careful now!

"During the first half of 2013, growth in Asia generally moderated and was weaker than anticipated in the April 2013 World Economic Outlook. This was due to a more rapid slowdown in the pace of growth in China, which affected industrial activity in much of emerging Asia, including through supply-chain links, while India faced persistent supply-side constraints," the IMF report said.

So how, folks? Can the rally continue? Hahahahahahahah!!

"Real GDP (gross domestic product) growth has disappointed in the emerging market and developing economies, while it has been broadly in line with projections in advanced economies. The reasons for the weaker growth differ across emerging market and developing economies and may include tightening capacity constraints, stabilizing or falling commodity prices, less policy support and slowing credit after a period of rapid financial deepening," the IMF said in the report.

Will the rally continue?

In its latest world outlook report, the IMF predicted emerging countries would average growth of 4.5 percent year-on-year in 2013, down from an estimate of 5.0 percent growth three months earlier. It also cut its outlook for emerging world growth in 2014, to 5.1 percent.

Will the rally continue?

Folks, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sliced its growth expectations for emerging countries on Tuesday, 8/10/12 , but maintained its forecast for advanced economies.

Will the rally continue?

Thailand AirAsia Flight Statistic

08.10.13 : DEP / ARR

Scheduled: 208 / 209

Tracked : 198 / 192

Departed: 196 / 190

Cancelled: 02 / 02

On-time : 94% / 94%

Overcapacity has caused cancellation?

Indonesia AirAsia Flight Statistic

08.10.13 : DEP / ARR

Scheduled: 170 / 170

Tracked : 143 / 142

Departed: 130 / 129

Cancelled: 013 / 013

On-time : 65% / 62%

Overcapacity of seats has caused cancellation? Hahahahahahahahahah!!

AirAsia Flight Statistic

08.10.13 : DEP / ARR

Scheduled: 433 / 424

Tracked : 383 / 386

Departed: 374 / 375

Cancelled: 009 /011

On-time : 83% / 79%

Overcapacity of seats has caused cancellation thus affecting the revenue! So how? Hahahahahahahahahah!!

AirAsia terima 345 lagi pesawat dalam 13 tahun. "Setakat ini, kami sudah menerima 130 pesawat A320. Bakinya akan diterima secara berperingkat sehingga 2026,"

Here: http://www.bharian.com.my/articles/AirAsiaterima345lagipesawatdalam13tahun/Article/

AirAsia mengaku merugi dengan adanya kegiatan KTT APEC di Nusa Dua, Bali. Lantaran, aktivitas penerbangan di bandara Ngurah Rai Bali harus ditutup.

Head of Marketing AirAsia Indonesia, Andy Adrian mengatakan, setidaknya ada 81 penerbangan yang dibatalkan dan 53 penerbangan dijadwalkan kembali (retime) dari dan menuju ke Bali.

here: http://www.republika.co.id/berita/ekonomi/bisnis/13/10/08/mucxud-ktt-apec-rugikan-airasia

MyCC decision on MAS-AirAsia case likely in January - See more at: http://www.thesundaily.my/news/850819#sthash.eIKVWnVJ.dpuf

AK 1365 08/10/2013 10:15 PM DENPASAR-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

AK 5229 08/10/2013 08:25 PM KUCHING-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

QZ 8395 08/10/2013 07:55 PM DENPASAR-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

AK 5241 08/10/2013 06:00 PM BINTULU-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

AK 1361 08/10/2013 05:10 PM DENPASAR-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

QZ 8162 08/10/2013 04:15 PM JAKARTA-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

AK 5227 08/10/2013 02:45 PM KUCHING-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

D7 0689 08/10/2013 09:15 AM JAKARTA-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

D7 0331 08/10/2013 06:15 AM PUDONG-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

AK 5125 08/10/2013 01:50 AM K. KINABALU-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

AK 5221 08/10/2013 01:00 AM KUCHING-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

AK 1367 08/10/2013 12:15 AM DENPASAR-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

QZ 8197 08/10/2013 10:20 PM KUALA LUMPUR-JAKARTA CANCELLED

QZ 8163 08/10/2013 04:40 PM KUALA LUMPUR-JAKARTA CANCELLED

AK 5228 08/10/2013 04:30 PM KUALA LUMPUR-KUCHING CANCELLED

AK 1364 08/10/2013 03:45 PM KUALA LUMPUR-DENPASAR CANCELLED

AK 5240 08/10/2013 01:25 PM KUALA LUMPUR-BINTULU CANCELLED

AK 5226 08/10/2013 10:50 AM KUALA LUMPUR-KUCHING CANCELLED

AK 1360 08/10/2013 10:50 AM KUALA LUMPUR-DENPASAR CANCELLED

D7 0688 08/10/2013 04:15 AM KUALA LUMPUR-JAKARTA CANCELLED

View here: http://flight.klia.com.my/fids.aspx

But folks, no one is looking at valuations but technicals and fundamentals now. Valuation wise you would want to be long but no one wants to grab a falling knife. Would you, folks?

I will only grab when the knife is already on the floor! Heheheheheheh!!

Investors will start looking at valuations again and see there is lot of value. The time frame? 6 months? 12 months? Not less than that, folks!

So how? Buy low & sell high folks! Waiting to but again, folks! Hehehehehehe

Folks, the biggest hurdle to the valuation trade is market momentum that could saddle funds with big shortterm losses.

Still losing money, folks? What a pity!! Heheheheheheheheheheh!!

It would be inaccurate to perceive Emerging Markets equities as cheap relative to returns they generate because their quality of RoE is deteriorating more rapidly than developed markets. So how? Investors have short memories!

Will the rally continue, folks? Heheheheheheheh!!

And falls in currencies real are a worry, eroding foreign investors' returns from local stocks. Companies from the EMs can sustain return on equity (ROE) levels only by taking more debt. Remember folks, ROE measures how much profit a firm makes with shareholder's money.

So how folks? Heheheheheheheh!!

Folks, of course some of these stocks are cheap for a reason and will stay cheap for years to come as theirs slumping profit margins remain a problem for stock markets.

Seat boys! Wakakakakakakakakakakak!!

Overcapacity osf seats has caused cancellation thus affecting the revenue?

So how? Hahahahahahahahahah!!

Forward loads in Malaysia for the remaining months of the 3Q13 are lower than in the prior year with base fares slightly lower than the prior year.

The 3Q earnings will be bad, folks! Wakakakakakakakakak

All these factors contribute negatively to the airlines in maintaining profitability and which are finding it difficult to pass on the rising cost to customers,” the Maybank IB analyst reiterated.

Yessssss... my pets are back.......wakakakakakakakakak!! seat boys!!!! Wakakakakakak!!

Furthermore, competition for manpower is intensifying and this has fueled wage inflation among the skilled labour force, Maybank IB explained further.

Good loh for the workers but sadly staffs expenses getting higher every quarters for the airlines.

So how? Hehehehehheheheheh!!

In addition, cost pressure is intensifying, with airlines facing multiple cost headwinds in the form of rising fuel cost, weakening RM against the US$ and rising interest rates which will raise aircraft financing cost, Maybank IB explained.

This coming 3Q earnings must be bad for AA, folks! Hahahahahahahah!! So how??

Maybank IB is not optimistic with the outlook for the remainder of 2013. On the revenue front, we believe that yields will continue to be weak as the airlines battle for market share supremacy.

We note that ticket prices on selected routes (Kuala Lumpur to Kota Kinabalu, Kuching, Miri, Penang) are the cheapest ever in living memory and we think they are priced below cost. Consumers are spoilt for choice and never having it better,” Maybank IB surmised.

Must be desperate for passengers just to fill up the empty seats! Wakakakakakakakakakakak!!

Maybank IB opined that the yield decline is unlikely to abate anytime soon. Under normal circumstances, yield declines are limited to three to five per cent during bad times.

AirAsia and MAS’ hefty yield decline is reminiscent of an industry calamity, much in the likes of 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and 2003 SARS pandemic.

Therefore, we oare of the opinion that Malindo Air is the catalyst for the fare war and yield erosion in the industry,” Maybabnk IB explained.

Wakakakakakakakakkakakak! So how this 3Q earnings?

According to analyst from the Maybank IB Research, although a fare war had been expected to occur in 2013, they were shocked with the pace and depth of the price war that transpired in 2Q13.

Maybank IB pointed out that AirAsia Bhd (AirAsia) and Malaysian Airline System Bhd (MAS) experienced severe yield declines of minus 7.8 per cent and minus 8.4 per cent year on year (y-o-y), respectively in 2Q13.

Heheheheheheh!!

Folks, yields have collapsed in the aviation industry, a result of the price war that transpired among airlines in the second quarter of 2013 (2Q13).

Overcapacity of seat, competitive air fare, free seats sale, rock bottom promotions, high fuel price, high operating expenses, high lending rates & weak ringgit would translate to better profit for AA in the 3QE13?

Look at 2Q earnings, a LOSS of Rm19.917m without AA Japan sale gains! Investors have short memories!!

So what? JV SIA-TATA initial investment 100million U.S. dollars mah! Heheheheheh!!

So folks together with overcapacity of seat, will this 3QE13 be a profitable quarter for AA?

August 2012 compared August 2013

Passenger Movements at KLIA Main Terminal & KLIA LCC Terminal
August 2012: 3,335,768 paxs
August 2013: 4,284,354 paxs +28.4% (+948,586 paxs)

Aircraft Movements at KLIA Main Terminal & KLIA LCC Terminal
August 2012: 23,832 flights
August 2013: 28,752 flights +20.8% (+4,920 flts)

4,920 (flts) X 300 (ave seating per flt) = 1,476,000 overcapacity of seats.

*AirAsia operates Airbus A320 which has a seating capacity of 180 passengers.
*AirAsiaX operates Airbus A330 which has a seating capacity of
377 passengers.
*Malaysia Airlines operates A380, A330, B737-800, B747 & B777 meaning average seating capacity of 320 passengers
*Other airlines A330, A320, B747, B777, B737 average seating capacity of 280 passengers.

1. UAE- Etihads Jet deal to result in $332m investment

2. Tata-SIA to start new airline, invest $100 mn

3. AirAsia-Tata group-Arun Bhatia will initially invest $30

Folks, who is serious here with their investment in India?

Hehehehehehehehh!!

August 2012 compared August 2013

Passenger Movements at KLIA Main Terminal & KLIA LCC Terminal
August 2012: 3,335,768 paxs
August 2013: 4,284,354 paxs +28.4% (+948,586 paxs)

Aircraft Movements at KLIA Main Terminal & KLIA LCC Terminal
August 2012: 23,832 flights
August 2013: 28,752 flights +20.8% (+4,920 flts)

4,920 (flts) X 300 (ave seating per flt) = 1,476,000 overcapacity of seats.

Wowwww.... more seats supply than demand for carriers operating at KLIA Main Terminal & KLIA LCCT! So how?

Thailand AirAsia Flight Statistic

07.10.13 : DEP / ARR

Scheduled: 210 / 210

Tracked : 209 / 210

Departed: 207 / 208

Cancelled: 02 / 02

On-time : 93% / 89%