Indonesia AirAsia Flight Statistic

07.10.13 : DEP / ARR

Scheduled: 174 / 177

Tracked : 154 / 155

Departed: 148 / 149

Cancelled: 006 / 006

On-time : 63% / 56%

AirAsia Flight Statistic

07.10.13 : DEP / ARR

Scheduled: 421 / 421

Tracked : 414 / 412

Departed: 406 / 406

Cancelled: 008 /006

On-time : 67% / 60%

For Asia, which is set to become the leading power in aviation in coming years, IATA chopped a third off its profit forecast to $3.1 billion.

For 2014, IATA predicted a rebound in profits to $16.4 billion on hopes of rising business and consumer confidence and a respite in oil prices. However, its chief economist warned any prolonged spike in fuel costs could upset this scenario.

"Emerging market growth in India, Brazil and to a certain extent China has been slower than anticipated," Tyler told reporters on a conference call.

Global airlines cut their 2013 industry profit forecast by 8 percent to $11.7 billion (7.3 billion pounds) on Monday, citing weaker growth in parts of Asia and a worsening slowdown in freight demand.

The International Air Transport Association, which represents some 200 carriers, said the $1 billion downgrade from its previous forecast for the whole industry in June also reflected a spike in oil prices driven by the Syrian crisis.

"The industry situation is not improving as quickly as we had expected," IATA Director General Tony Tyler said.

MORE budget airlines will be flying from Kuala Lumpur International Airport 2 (klia2), the new purpose-built low-cost carrier terminal (LCCT), here, when it opens next year.

Several foreign budget airlines have indicated their interest to operate from klia2 as passenger traffic rises in the Asia Pacific.

Disposed 02/10/2013 1,034,400 By EPF!

Could the 3Q earnings be down? Careful now, folks!

Swamy moves HC, does not want AirAsia to get approval for India ops! Will the rally continue? Hahahahahahah!!

AK 1487 07/10/2013 11:25 PM SIEM REAP-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

AK 5173 07/10/2013 07:00 PM LABUAN-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

QZ 8162 07/10/2013 04:15 PM JAKARTA-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

AK 5233 07/10/2013 01:40 PM KUCHING-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

AK 5220 07/10/2013 09:00 PM KUALA LUMPUR-KUCHING CANCELLED

AK 5124 07/10/2013 08:20 PM KUALA LUMPUR-K. KINABALU CANCELLED

QZ 8163 07/10/2013 04:40 PM KUALA LUMPUR-JAKARTA CANCELLED

AK 1809 07/10/2013 11:00 AM KUALA LUMPUR-SINGAPORE CANCELLED

View here: http://flight.klia.com.my/fids.aspx

The global airline industry has been affected adversely by several economic factors such as economic crisis, increasing oil price , overcapacity.

Will the rally continue?

Folks, it is a well-established fact that the airline industry suffers from insufficient profitability.

This is difficult to reconcile with another feature of the airline industry, namely the continuous expansion of capacity.

This raises two questions: first, why have capital markets continued to provide the resources for further expansion of the industry, and second, why have airline managers made use of these resources in order
to grow in a market that does not provide sufficient returns?

Folks, unpredictablity in determining oil prices has created further turmoil for the aviation industry.

Just ten years ago jet fuel costs accounted for 10% of airlines' total expenditure. Now the figure around 33%.

So how?

It is anticipated that with capacity growing faster than demand for the LCCs, there will also be a downward pressure on yields for the region’s carriers.

Higher fuel costs are creating upward pressure on overall costs but the ability of airlines to reflect higher costs in their fares is starting to diminish as capacity increases.

The challenge is to manage the capacity profitably. So will AA be profitbale for this 3Q earnings? A small leak can sink a GREAT ship!

There are more airline seats than buyers. Mr. Supply outstrips Mr. Demand. Consequently, the profitability of these carriers is down. When profits drop, airline stock price get dump!

So will the 3Q earnings be good for AA?

AirAsia FREE SEATS promotion is back ! Fly to exciting destinations across local & international famous destinations. Airport and fuel surcharge apply from RM26 onwards on this promotion deal.

Booking Period : 7 October 2013 – 13 October 2013
Travel Period : 14 October 2013 – 5 August 2014

Overcapacity & oversupply than demand = Free seats promotion? The capacity situation illustrates, it is still a buyer's market, to achieve earnings per share is a very difficult thing.

Folks, Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index extending last week’s drop, as U.S. lawmakers wrangle over the debt limit and partial government shutdown.

“The U.S. situation is clearly abnormal and the uncertainty doesn’t make things easier for investors in risk assets,” said Masaru Hamasaki, a senior strategist at Tokyo-based Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co., which oversees about 11.2 trillion yen ($115 billion) in assets. “If the U.S. defaults and misses paying its bills even just for a few days, the market will turn chaotic.”

U.S. Speaker John Boehner said yesterday the House can’t pass an increase to the debt ceiling without packaging it with other provisions -- a nonstarter for President Barack Obama.

While emerging nations stand to benefit from strengthening of developed economies given their trade linkages, they need to prepare better for monetary policy adjustments that accompany the recovery, the World Bank said.

Last week, the Asian Development Bank cut its forecasts for emerging Asia this year and next last week, as a slowdown in China and India is compounded by concern that the Federal Reserve’s impending reduction of its record stimulus will drive away investors. The Fed last month said it wants more evidence of an economic recovery before paring its $85 billion-a-month bond buying program, surprising analysts who had predicted a $5 billion cut to purchases of Treasuries.

During the 3rd quarter, emerging markets were roiled by the prospect of the Federal Reserve winding down its monetary stimulus, with currencies including the Indian rupee and Indonesian rupiah suffering sharp losses against the U.S. dollar.

"Reducing reliance on short-term and foreign currency denominated debt, accepting a weaker exchange rate when growth is below potential, and building policy buffers to respond to changing global liquidity conditions are some of the ways that can help countries be prepared," Bert Hofman, chief economist, East Asia and Pacific at the World Bank.

Remember folks, AA borrowings are mainly in the form of term loans which are for the purchase of new Airbus A320-200 aircraft. The maturity period of non-current borrowing is 14 years and below. Borrowings are denominated in US Dollar (predominantly), RM and Euro.

Trade & Other Payables:
(2Q13) Rm1.233b

Total Debt:
(2Q13) Rm8.813b
(1Q13) Rm8.464b

Will this 3Q earnings be favourable to AA?

Policy makers in developing East Asia need to be ready to respond to a steady increase in interest rates in advanced economies, and step up their efforts to maintain financial stability, the World Bank said today.

Some of the headwind will be coming from the international economy, and that largely is the tapering of the unconventional monetary policies especially in the Untied States,” Bert Hofman, the World Bank’s chief economist for East Asia and Pacific, told reporters in Singapore. “It will mean an increase of global interest rates for which countries would need to prepare. And they need to prepare for potential financial market volatility in the process.”

The largest developing nations for the first time have the worst market opportunities as optimism for stronger growth shifts to the U.S. and Europe. India fared the poorest, followed by Brazil, Russia, China and other emerging countries.

The region covered in the World bank’s report includes China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar, Timor-Leste, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and other island economies in the Pacific.

So will the rally continue?

The World Bank lowered its forecasts for East Asia’s developing nations this year and next, and said the region must boost efforts to ensure financial stability ahead of interest-rate increases in advanced economies.

Growth in larger middle income countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand is also softening in light of lower investment, lower global commodity prices and lower-than-expected growth of exports.

The risks to the global recovery from the uncertainty surrounding the fiscal deadlock in the U.S., the impact of the withdrawal of monetary stimulus from the advanced economies, an abrupt slowdown of investment in China, and unrests in the Middle-East remain prominent, the World Bank said in its East Asia and Pacific Economic Update today.

The current rally in the ringgit is expected to be transient. The view that the appreciation is not sustainable over the long term as the unwinding of the Fed’s quantitative easing program is certain to happen, only a matter of timing.

Folks, will there be another selldown in the EMs? Remember folks, during the 3Q, ringgit weaken while fuel price increased only on talk of Fed taper.

Will this coming 3Q earnings be good for AA? Will the rally continue? Why aren't the shareholders buying more?

Cash-rich Asian and Middle Eastern lenders are taking a larger share of the $100 billion global aircraft financing market as Western rivals step back due to the liquidity crunch and stricter regulations.

European lenders said last year they would cut exposure to risky and dollar-denominated assets such as shipping and aircraft financing to meet tougher capital rules and shore up reserves.

They have given way to Asian banks like Development Bank of Japan (DBJ), Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG) and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc , South Korean and Chinese banks, as well as Middle Eastern lenders like National Bank of Abu Dhabi among others.

Asian giants like Singapore Airlines , Malaysia's low-cost carrier Air Asia , Japan's All Nippon Airways and Indonesia Lion Air are among companies that have ordered planes worth billions of dollars to support growing passenger numbers.

The challenge for airlines would be the borrowings rates from Europe & U.S. are much lower compared to the Asian & Middle Eastern Lenders.

Investors have short memories!

Friday, October 04, 2013 - BJP leader Subramanian Swamy on Friday moved the Delhi High Court seeking an order restraining the Centre from granting any approval to AirAsia for its operations in India.

His application for stay should be listed next week as his Public Interest Litigation (PIL) seeking quashing of permission given to AirAsia for its operations is to come up for hearing on October 30.

Allowing his plea, the bench of justices B D Ahmed and Vibhu Bakhru said, "If you have filed the application then it will automatically be listed on coming Wednesday which is a PIL day."

Swamy in his plea said, "Pass an order of ex-parte ad interim stay restraining respondents...(Centre) from taking any action or decision or granting any further or other approvals/permission/NOC/permits etc contrary to the applicable FDI policy read with DGCA guidelines... Or from granting any approval for foreign investment by a foreign airlines in a greenfield airline project."

Ayoyoyooo..... NOC given & now this Swamy file interim stay restraining the authority from granting further approval for AA initial operation! Remember folks, the key management staffs still waiting for security clearance from the home ministry.

Here: http://zeenews.india.com/business/news/companies/swamy-moves-hc-seeks-order-on-airasia-operations_86050.html

BJP leader Subramanian Swamy today moved the Delhi High Court seeking an order restraining the Centre from granting any approval to AirAsia for its operations in India.

Read more here: http://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/swamy-moves-hc-seeks-order-on-airasia-operations-113100400876_1.html

AirAsia will suspend its thrice weekly flights from Kuala Lumpur to Clark in the Philippines effective Oct 31 as part of its route network realignment.

So how?

AirAsia Flight Statistic

06.10.13 : DEP / ARR

Scheduled: 423 / 422

Tracked : 413 / 410

Departed: 409 / 405

Cancelled: 004 /005

On-time : 87% / 84%

Thailand AirAsia Flight Statistic

06.10.13 : DEP / ARR

Scheduled: 210 / 210

Tracked : 207 / 193

Departed: 205 / 191

Cancelled: 02 / 02

On-time : 95% / 96%

Indonesia AirAsia Flight Statistic

06.10.13 : DEP / ARR

Scheduled: 176 / 172

Tracked : 152 / 143

Departed: 145 / 136

Cancelled: 007 / 007

On-time : 80% / 77%

Despite the thin to non-existent profits, passenger numbers continue to grow. In fact IATA points out that, despite high fuel prices and a slowing world economy, airline profits and cash flows held up at levels similar to 2006, when oil prices were US$45 per barrel lower and the world economy was growing at 4.0%.

Commenting on the numbers, Iata said: “With global GDP growth close to the ‘stall speed’ of 2.0%, and with oil at US$109.55 a barrel, we expected much weaker performance. But airlines have adjusted to this difficult environment through improving efficiency and restructuring. That is protecting cash flows against weak economic growth and high fuel prices.”

Cheers!!

Folks, the global airline industry has made a multi-billion dollar loss in seven of the last 12 years. There is scarcely a major airline that is immune from potential bankruptcy, apart from the Gulf airlines, which are all cash-rich and expanding their businesses.

Any sector with a profit margin of 3% or under is living on the edge. In fact, on December 13, 2012, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced that the net post-tax margin for the industry as a whole will barely amount to 1.0% for 2012 and 1.3% for 2013.

That is such a wafer-thin margin that even a modest spike in fuel costs could tip the industry into yet another annual loss in 2013. In any event, IATA estimates that the industry needs a profit of between 7% and 8% to recover the cost of capital deployed. That does not look on the cards any time soon. IATA director-general said in december 2012 that it seems likely that the world’s airlines will return a profit of US$6.7 billion in 2012, which represents a downward revision of IATA’s October 2012 prediction of US$7.5 billion. This amounts to just US$2.25 for every one of the 2.97 billion passengers carried in 2012, not much of a profit margin for a multi-billion dollar sector.

Folks, the current state of the global commercial airline business continues to be difficult at best. One of the deep structural issues that the industry faces is that it is very difficult to take overcapacity out of the sector while so many national airlines are propped up in various ways by government subsidies.

What happens in other industries faced with overcapacity, namely a spate of mergers and takeovers, along with some high-profile failures, has all sorts of systemic barriers to overcome in the airline sector. This arguably prevents the market from functioning the way competitive markets should function.

However folks, necessity, as the old saying has it, is often the mother of invention, and the big engine manufacturers that target the sector, such as Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, and GE, along with several innovative competitors, have all been looking to design more-efficient, leaner engines that use less fuel per mile and that are generally quieter, putting them comfortably inside the industry’s latest noise abatement measures.

But would this be enough? Definitely no!

The civil aviation industry is highly cyclical, being extremely sensitive to the economic cycle. In times of economic hardship, people simply fly less often than they do in the good times.

In addition to being hostage to the economic cycle, the airline industry is struggling with two major factors, namely fuel costs, which seem to be on a perpetual path upwards, and the need to “green up” (profits).

As the Economist (2012) has pointed out, the world’s airlines operate on the tightest of margins, and the least ill wind can push even the most established players into administration or bankruptcy.

Folks, FED taper is just a postponement. Once talk on taper appear in the market again, selldown in the EMs will start all over again!

Of course some of these stocks are cheap for a reason and will stay cheap for years to come as theirs slumping profit margins remain a problem for stock markets.

And falls in currencies real are a worry, eroding foreign investors' returns from local stocks. Companies from the EMs can sustain return on equity (ROE) levels only by taking more debt. Remember folks, ROE measures how much profit a firm makes with shareholder's money.

It would be inaccurate to perceive Emerging Markets equities as cheap relative to returns they generate because their quality of RoE is deteriorating more rapidly than developed markets.

Well folks, for AA the coming 3QE13 will not be so promising! A small leak can disrupt a smooth sailing of a GREAT ship!

AK 1487 04/10/2013 11:25 PM SIEM REAP-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

QZ 8206 04/10/2013 07:35 PM JAKARTA-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

AK 1810 04/10/2013 01:30 PM SINGAPORE-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

AK 5125 04/10/2013 01:50 AM K. KINABALU-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

AK 5221 04/10/2013 01:00 AM KUCHING-KUALA LUMPUR CANCELLED

AK 5220 04/10/2013 09:00 PM KUALA LUMPUR-KUCHING CANCELLED

QZ 8207 04/10/2013 08:20 PM KUALA LUMPUR-JAKARTA CANCELLED

AK 5124 04/10/2013 08:20 PM KUALA LUMPUR-K. KINABALU CANCELLED

AK 1486 04/10/2013 06:35 PM KUALA LUMPUR-SIEM REAP CANCELLED

AK 1809 04/10/2013 11:00 AM KUALA LUMPUR-SINGAPORE CANCELLED

View here: http://flight.klia.com.my/fids.aspx

Friday, October 04, 2013 - BJP leader Subramanian Swamy on Friday moved the Delhi High Court seeking an order restraining the Centre from granting any approval to AirAsia for its operations in India.

His application for stay should be listed next week as his Public Interest Litigation (PIL) seeking quashing of permission given to AirAsia for its operations is to come up for hearing on October 30.

Allowing his plea, the bench of justices B D Ahmed and Vibhu Bakhru said, "If you have filed the application then it will automatically be listed on coming Wednesday which is a PIL day."

Swamy in his plea said, "Pass an order of ex-parte ad interim stay restraining respondents...(Centre) from taking any action or decision or granting any further or other approvals/permission/NOC/permits etc contrary to the applicable FDI policy read with DGCA guidelines... Or from granting any approval for foreign investment by a foreign airlines in a greenfield airline project."

Ayoyoyooo..... NOC given & now this Swamy file interim stay restraining the authority from granting further approval for AA initial operation! Remember folks, the key management staffs still waiting for security clearance from the home ministry.

So how?

1. Lion: 145 Lion Air (100), Wings Air (27), Malindo Air (10), Batik Air (8)

2. Garuda: 139 Garuda (110), Citilink (29)

3. Singapore Airlines: 138 SIA (101), SilkAir (23), SIA Cargo (9), Scoot (5)

4. AirAsia: 137 AA Malaysia (70), Thai AA (35), Indonesia AA (29), Philippines AA (3)

5. Malaysia Airlines: 131 MAS (98), Firefly (18), MASWings (15)

6. Thai Airways: 120

03/10/13: AA Sold Virtually Free Tickets, Will They Honor It?

I was just sitting in front of my computer enviously reading passengers posts claiming booking success for more than four hours but at 3:30 p.m., I finally went to Expedia to verify if the ‘free fares’ are true. My eyes opened up wide open when I saw the numbers, did a second, third, and fourth look, and finally went to the checkout page and I ended up clicking that confirmation button to book a round trip ticket for Php 79.64 all in. Yay! “Pack your bags,” the confirmation says. Among the international destinations featured for ‘free seats’ when I checked that afternoon include Australia, Maldives, Nepal, and the Philippines. For your reference my dears: 1 USD=40-42PHP

Read more here: http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-1044848

Apparently, this kind of thing happened 8 years ago to Expedia and Hilton International hotels in Japan. Their original rate was 160$/night. Then some wizard made a whiff and the price dropped to 4$/night. THAT IS AWESOMESAUCE! That was a pretty good steal… I mean deal.

Read more here: http://gladiexchung.wordpress.com/2013/10/03/the-one-with-the-super-cheap-airfare/

Interesting!

Cash-rich Asian and Middle Eastern lenders are taking a larger share of the $100 billion global aircraft financing market as Western rivals step back due to the liquidity crunch and stricter regulations.

European lenders said last year they would cut exposure to risky and dollar-denominated assets such as shipping and aircraft financing to meet tougher capital rules and shore up reserves.

They have given way to Asian banks like Development Bank of Japan (DBJ), Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG) and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc , South Korean and Chinese banks, as well as Middle Eastern lenders like National Bank of Abu Dhabi among others.

Asian giants like Singapore Airlines , Malaysia's low-cost carrier Air Asia , Japan's All Nippon Airways and Indonesia Lion Air are among companies that have ordered planes worth billions of dollars to support growing passenger numbers.

The challenge for airlines would be the borrowings rates from Europe & U.S. are much lower compared to the Asian & Middle Eastern Lenders.

So how?

Folks, AA and ICBC Financial Leasing Co Ltd have signed a memorandum of agreement (MoA) for aircraft financing facilities worth US$1bil (RM3.18bil).

The number of aircraft to be acquired should be no less than 10, according to the term of the letter of intent. AA and ICBC Leasing will cooperate in the lease of A320s in batches acquired from ICBC Leasing. Leased aircraft will consist of A320s assembled by Airbus (Tianjin) Final Assembly Co Ltd.

So what happened to the European Lenders? Remember folks, borrowing rate is cheaper from European & U.S. Banks compared to Asian and Middle Eastern lenders.

Have a good weekend folks. I know I will! Cheers!!!

Overcapacity of seat, competitive air fare, free seat sales, rock bottom promotions, high fuel price, high operating expenses, high lending rates & weak ringgit would translate to better profit for in the 3QE13?

Look at 2Q earnings, a LOSS of Rm19.917m without AA Japan sale gains! Investors have short memories!!

Folks, talk on Fed taper making headline news by end of May 2013. Then in July, August & September fuel price increase while the ringgit weaken against U.S. dollars cos by the selldown in EMs.

So folks together with overcapacity of seat, will this 3QE13 be a profitable quarter for AA?

Passenger Movements at KLIA Main Terminal & KLIA LCC Terminal
August 2012: 3,335,768 paxs
August 2013: 4,284,354 paxs up 28.4% additional 948,586 paxs

Aircraft Movements at KLIA Main Terminal & KLIA LCC Terminal
August 2012: 23,832 flights
August 2013: 28,752 flights up 20.8% additional 4,920 flights

4,920 (flts) X 300 (ave seating per flt) = 1,476,000 seats available while the additional passengers at 948,586 only. Positive or negative for AA, folks?

AA India will start operations which don't know when with only one aircraft! So how?

The lastest from HWANGDBS: HOLD rm2.60 Tp rm2.90 Reason: Competition in home market.

Definition of "HOLD" - Total return is expected to be between -15% and +15% over the next 12 months. So will it be -15% or +15%?

Investors have short memories!

Folks, it is wise to direct your anger towards problems not people, to focus your energies on answers not excuses.

Wakakakakakakak!!

Will the rally continue? RSI(14) at 56% so care to share your opinion here, folks?

Although AirAsia India is yet to take off, AirAsia Berhad (the Malaysia-based company) and Thai AirAsia have been operating in India for a few years now. And if that experience is anything to go by, operating a new low-cost India affiliate is unlikely to be a cakewalk.

In 2008, AirAsia Berhad started a daily flight from Tiruchirapalli to Kuala Lumpur (KL). By November 2009, there were daily flights from Kochi, Thiruvananthapuram and Kolkata to KL — all in the same week. In early 2010, twice daily services were added from Chennai to KL and Penang. Subsequently, flights were added from Bangalore, Mumbai, Hyderabad and Delhi (by August 2010).

The Delhi and Mumbai routes being of over five hours duration, A330 (AirAsia X) planes were used. In December 2010, Thai AirAsia introduced daily flights from Kolkata and Delhi to Bangkok. Most of 2010 was spent expanding and consolidating.

Remember folks, AAX the long-haul division of AirAsia, has officially announced it is terminating routes from Kuala Lumpur to London, Paris, Mumbai, and New Delhi.

Folks, 3 issues holding back AirAsia X flights to India: Higher airport and handling charges, visa restrictions reasons for Mumbai, Delhi cancellations. So how?

Here is what next, folks!

It’s not helping matters that the airline’s costs and projections are already out of whack. It is paying salaries to its 200-odd employees every month, while the rupee charts its own course.

A senior AA India employee told BW, on condition of anonymity, that calculations have gone awry — but not enough to pose a real problem as they have budgeted for some delays in clearances.

If India is a challenge, things aren’t any easier elsewhere either. Of its four affiliates — in the Philippines, Indonesia, Japan and Thailand — it has recently pulled out of its venture with Japan’s ANA, citing management differences. It may launch its own low-fare carrier in Japan.

Like Japan, the Philippines venture is yet to turn the corner. In Thailand, profits have taken a dip, albeit temporarily. In Indonesia, although it is making operating profits, it is yet to wipe out some past losses.

But what is perhaps more worrying is that the group is facing trouble in Malaysia, where Indonesia’s Lion Air has launched Malindo (49 per cent share with Lion Air and 51 per cent with the Malaysian government) in March. “AirAsia has been a bit like Jet Airways in the mid-1990s — virtually a monopoly. That has been one big reason behind its success,” says a senior civil aviation official.

Till now, operations in home market Malaysia have been its backbone — it posted a net profit of close to $610 million in 2012, an impressive 238 per cent increase over the previous year. Profits this year have been lower with the last quarter showing a drop of 62 per cent (more on account of the higher base than anything else).

Says Kapil Kaul, South Asia CEO of Centre For Aviation: “There’s no denying that competition for AirAsia in 2013 has intensified substantially — both with its subsidiaries and at home. We need to see how it copes with this.”

In response to a questionnaire from BW, AirAsia chief Fernandes said: “I would rather answer all these questions after we get our AOC (Air Operator’s Certificate) in India.”