The independent adviser (Affin Hwang)'s report is a ??? - the IB's sell-side research has a RNAV-based target price of RM0.70 for YTL Corp but their corporate finance (or whichever dept doing the independent adviser report) has a fair value of RM1.38 for YTL Corp...a difference of nearly 100%, badly reflecting on the investment bank.

Over in Spore, SGX has already taken action to prevent major shareholder from 'oppressing' minority shareholders. What is Msia Bursa and SC doing??? No wonder, the retail investors in Msian market are declining over the years...


https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/07/11/singapores-change-to-delisting-rule-will-lead-to-higher-prices-analysts-say/

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/sgx-regco-requires-exit-offers-to-be-fair-and-reasonable-shareholder-vote-to

For YTL Corp to privatise YTL Land via share swap (with ZERO premium) when YTL Land share and ICULS are at/near record low price and at an offer price much lower than its NAV/share (RNAV is much higher)- can be considered as a form of minority oppression. In my personal view, YTL Corp is using the 75% threshold (25% public shareholding Bursa listing requirement) game plan - making minority shareholders' fear of holding shares/ICULS in a 'potential' unlisted entity to push them to take up the inequitable offer. According to the offer letter, the offeror 'on paper' owns 65.26% of YTL Land shares and 78.95% of YTL Land ICULS. We do not know how much are in the hands of 'friendly' parties - I am sure YTL Corp and its advisers have done their homework prior to launching the privatisation share swap offer. If one look at shareholding analysis in YTL Land FY2018 annual report, besides YTL Corp - second largest shareholder is Dato Mohamed Zainal Abidin (direct & indirect stake of 6.17%), presumably he is a 'friendly' party. Please also note an entity named Construction Lease (M) Sdn Bhd. There are hardly any institutional holdings in Top 30 shareholdings, only Dimensional Fund and DFA Funds holding only 1+mln each - too little for them to make much noise.

For oppression of minority shareholders, there are a few recourses available to minority shareholders but most of them are have limited effectiveness or 'too expensive or time consuming' for minority shareholders.

1) Complain to MSWG (Minority Shareholder watchdog group). To me, MSWG is a 'toothless' tiger.

2) Complain to Securities Commission and Bursa Malaysia on the oppression of minority

3) Engage a lawyer on oppression of minority shareholders - too expensive for retail investors

4) Get media to cover the news or using social media to highlight the unfairness of the share swap deal - using public opinion pressure.

Another interesting piece from KC Chong...something relevant for most retail investors. Do keep up your good work! My 2-cent opinion, retail 'investors' will be better off just buying low-cost index tracking funds (but they won't because it is boring).

https://www.sc.com.my/post_archive/sc-warns-investors-over-pump-and-dump-schemes-via-internet-and-social-media/

Readers/investors have to decide/know which part of the cycle are they entering/exiting. Some of them last for weeks, some go on for months or even longer. Fellow i3readers, just remember most (>90%) of retail investors will end up 'contributing' to a few big players in the game.

Whenever a new government or a new CEO takes over, it is normal to do 'kitchen sinking' - announce a worst-case scenario at one go... http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-32412594

With regard to your three points:

1) Government Guarantees
Without a detailed breakdown/nature of the RM199bln of government guarantee, we cannot identify clearly how much may actually be liable by the Federal government. The RM199bln excludes guarantees provided to viable entities like Khazanah and Tenaga. A big chunk of it are for Prasarana (RM26.6bn), DanaInfra (RM42.2bn), PTPTN, Msia Rail-Link (RM14.5bn), Pembinaan PFI and 'infamous' 1MDB (estimated RM38bn). @tksw, you are right, Govt will not be liable until the respective entity 'defaults'. Even if a number of them cannot service their debt obligations timely, what is the government 'net exposure' (i.e. liabilities less assets)?

2) Lease Payments
The key point to note on RM201bn lease payments...is the amount stated in total nominal amount or discounted amount? A lease payment of RM100mln due in 20 years from now is actually worth much less in present value (time value of money). Did the new government simply add up all the payments payable over a long period of time to get a total of RM201bn or did they apply a discount rate to the amount payable?

3) Is There a Possibilities of Double Counting of the Two Items above?
I doubt so. It is unlikely to be double counted as the amount outstanding are likely to be for specific projects or entities. If even there is, the amount will not be big.

We have to view the announcement of RM1trn debt headline objectively...it makes a 'glaring' headline. However, the new government may want to paint a more holistic picture of the fiscal position and indebtedness of the government. We as rakyat have to take in stride...the debt level is still manageable by the new government as long as fiscal prudence is enforced.


The following news can partly 'address' some of author's points to ponder:
https://www.malaymail.com/s/1635147/dr-m-says-found-ways-to-reduce-liabilities-debt-by-rm200b

In Daiman's case, Mr Tay's stake (direct and indirect) is already above 50% and he/his family have always being in 'control'. MGO only applies when there is a 'change' in control. There are some changes in 2016 for Code on Take-overs and Mergers.

Hi FairnReasonable, you should read the SC code on Take-overs & Mergers 2016.

Mandatory Offers
As the name suggests, a mandatory offer is one which a bidder is compelled to make by law. A bidder triggers the obligation to extend a mandatory offer to acquire all the shares of the Target which he or persons acting in concert with him do not, already own if the bidder, together with persons acting in concert with him:

(a) acquires more than 33% of a company (i.e. obtains control)

(b) triggers the ‘creeping threshold’ (holds between 33% and 50% of the voting shares or voting rights, and acquires more than 2% of the voting shares or voting rights in any period of 6 months); or

(c) acquires between 20% and 33% of the target's voting shares and the SC exercises its discretion to trigger the mandatory general offer requirements.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5334465

In view of this investment has been fully impaired in the financial year ended 31 March 2016, MWE Group will realise a gain of estimated USD10,258,000 arising from the Disposal upon completion. The cash proceeds arising from the Disposal will be utilised to pare down the group’s borrowings and future working capital.

FINANCIAL EFFECT OF THE DISPOSAL
The Disposal is expected to be completed in the 4th quarter of financial year ending 31 March 2017. The earnings and net assets is expected to increase by RM0.19 per share.

Only two counters??? How about OWG and AWC... It is public information on his stock coverage - anyone can find it at the back of CIMB reports.

It is NOT a rumour that the CIO left. It is a fact that he is no longer with RHB AM wef 10 Aug.

Always changing year-end period??? Changing once is not always (from 31 Dec to 31 Mar). I believe the purpose to change year-end is to align with Kumpulan Europlus year-end which will be a key segment/contributor to the group from 2019

@hng33, while your analysis is logical and rather sound, with the recent sharp decline in share price, market is pricing/expecting in a weaker 1Q16 result (both QoQ and YoY). You know it later this evening.

Ta Ann 1Q16 results is supposed to be out tmow. Today's share price performance is a reflection of fund managers' revised expectations of upcoming results> RHB cut their TP from RM5.30 to RM3.92 (from Neutral to Sell), citing weakness in the timber segment.

@soojinhou, thanks for your contribution to the investing community. As for your comment on 'substantial shareholder of FL Bhd', he/she will need to disclose when his/her aggregate holdings crosses 5% - 'smurfing' cannot circumvent the disclosure requirement (but spouse's stake is not aggregated unless there are strong proof that the spouse is also controlled by substantial s/h).

Quote from disclosure requirement: "According to Section 69 of the Malaysia Companies Act 1965, a substantial shareholder is defined as a person who has a stake in one or more voting shares in a company, where the nominal amount of that share (or the aggregate of the nominal amounts of those shares) is not less than 5% of the aggregate of the nominal amounts of all the voting shares in the company."

@soojinhou & any investor adversely impacted, the official complaint recourse is: http://www.sc.com.my/lodge-complaints-2/captmarket/

Kindly note: an official complaint is a serious matter.

If you have lost money due to poor investment decisions, there is no recourse.

With a major newspaper highlighting the issue, I am quite sure SC and Bursa are/would be looking into the matter.

After RSawit, Jaya Tiasa and Mudajaya fiascos, I was puzzled why the 'savvy' investor' still have such a large following. Reason: Greed (we all want to make money - nothing wrong with that). A lot of retail investors like to chase after stocks and want quick bucks. From I observed from my decades of investing journey...I can safely estimate 80-90% of retail investors (or rather punters) lose money or underperform the KLCI. When they make money, they boast about it, but keep quiet when losing money. Just take a look at the portfolio results, you will have a good idea: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_2016/95721.jsp

BTW, the few 'top' investors (much richer than KYY) that I know...they are secretive on what they buy/sell. One of them jokingly told me, "If I am accumulating an undervalued stock, why should I tell you? Tell you to compete with me to chase up the share price, ah??"

I rest my case.

I always post objective comments on i3investor. Yet someone flag my most recent comment for abuse (suspected OTB)...how can it can be abusing if what I stated are facts? (People invest/speculate in stock market to make money. Do you Really believe someone else will help you to make money without self-interest?).

Please note OTB is licensed for dealing in securities only and NOT for investment advice. PS: dealing in securities and investment advice are separate regulated activities under SC purview. There are official complaint avenues against licensed holders for people affected by actions of a licensed holder.

http://ers.seccom.com.my/public/Default.aspx?menu=1&formname=frmSearchRep&field=name&personname=ooi+teik+bee&icnumber=&passportnumber=&licencenumber=&licencetype=

Isn't it obvious what KYY and OTB are up? Helping other investors to make money??? Haha. Let's be realistic, people invest/speculate in the stock market for what...to make money. Stock market is where big fishes eat small ones. If you are a small fish, better play safe and stick to fundamentally sound and 'dividend driven' stocks.

Thank you Tan KW for compiling. YTD FBMKLCI +1.408%, only 12 out of 72 portfolios (16.7%) have outperformed the benchmark index. It will be interesting to see how it will be like at the end of 2016.

@calvin, I note that your positive response.

For forecasting plantation profits, it is not just a simplistic 'how much an acre of palm oil can make in a year'. There are many factors to consider and as such, the earnings can fluctuate. To make things slightly easier: profit = revenue - costs.

Revenue of a oil palm plantation is generally dependent: (i) CPO, PKO & FFB selling price; and (ii) production volume of CPO, PKO and FFB. The selling price and production volume are dependent on various factors, in particular weather (forecasting weather is like fortune telling -> will someone even know accurately what is tomorrow's weather, let alone over the next year?). There are inter-play (inverse correlation) between prices and production volume (e.g. 1H16 industry production volume will be likely be lower due to El Nino, CPO prices expected to be up) as well as expected production volume of competing oils such as soya bean. Besides weather, there are various factors affecting production volume including age profile (significantly influence production volume), topography and soil of plantation land (please note peat soil land - yield are generally lower), availability of labour, clones planted, fertiliser used, any tree/biological stress & etc. There are many other factors affecting revenue such as regulatory & import duties imposed by buyer countries as well as environmental regulations, usage for bio-diesel mandate (e.g. when will Msia move to B10) and etc...

I leave costs part out...if not, my post will be too long.

I normally do not like to correct people's postings but your factual errors are rather glaring. From JT corporate presentation (Sizeable oil palm estate with an estimated plantable area of 69,589 ha. Planted 69,589 ha to-date Pg7 of http://jayatiasa.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/presentation_2QFY16.pdf) - around 172,000 acres. By the way, FGV, Sime Darby, IOI and KLK planted areas are larger.

As for JT land ownership. please vet carefully through the annual report...do the listed coy really own All the plantation land? FGV's key landbanks are 'leased' from Felda settlers. However, Sime Darby, IOI and KLK land are owned by them...that's why the three coy's mkt cap are in tens of billions.

There is no doubt that JT's oil palm plantation age profile is really good...with >70% in prime mature by FY18.

While MPHBCap is deeply undervalued at current price of RM1.40, the big question/catalyst is when it can distribute its cashpile via dividend to its s/hs. It is still awaiting for BNM approval.

See http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/34543.jsp

Thank you Tan KW and your fellow organisers. The results will certainly provide insights to investors that earning consistent good returns in the stock market is not an easy feat (or else most people will not be working and will be punting/investing in the stock market for a living).

I do agree with Mat Cendana in certain areas such as monitoring foreign net flow (e.g. yesterday and today is positive) but as for structured warrants, I am not too sure. Of course, expert traders who got the direction or strategy right will be okay. Personally, I believe a majority (>60%) of investors/traders will lose money in structured warrants - going against other more savvy traders and also at the 'mercy' of market makers/issuers.

FBMKLCI YTD (Jan-Feb): -2.23%. So, only 13/72 (18%) managed to beat the benchmark index YTD. It is not easy for normal investors to consistently beat the market. There are plenty of research showing that most retailers will be better off buying passive index funds rather than trying to beat the market by themselves.

@king36 Chabalang-where is "Stock Chart" (or i3 investor chart)? i don't see at the top of this page?
Please share. Thank you.
27/02/2016 10:10

1) Click on the stock name (in this case - Ge-Shen Corporation Bhd {bue font}
2) In the new window, you should see the second tab 'Technical' - > drop-down box, choose Price Chart. You can choose 1M, 3M, 6M, YTD, 1Y or All

Under the Research Tab - you can find analyst reports in Price Target and historical FA data in the Financials. They are quite useful too.

Overall, i3investor data/info is sufficient for a lot of retail investors. Cannot compare with Bloomberg terminal which will cost thousands of USD per quarter. Most local broker's e-trading platforms should have basic technical and fundamental data.

Hope the above helps.

@wangge: with reference to your comment "Since stock market is a zero sum game", I beg to differ. A stock with good business and growth should increase its market capitalisation in the long-run -> its shareholders should be richer over time (e.g. Nestle SA and Cola-Coca {including dividends}). Similar for total market capitalisation of a stock market, despite some crashes along the way, most market markets are higher over the long run (there are exceptions like Japan which faces an entrenched economic-demographic problem). It is only a zero-sum game only if the stock's market capitalisation runs up and then falls back to the original level. Certain derivatives and structured products are zero-sum game.

Back to Ge-Shen and Genetec, I hesitated to comment but I really cannot tahan. When times are good or stock prices increasing, most people only see the gains and forget about the risks. For new investors, whenever you get a stock tip or recommendation, please make an effort to understand the company and take a look at the stock chart (i3investor chart is good enough). If the share price has already run up substantially within a short period, please avoid it unless you have strong reasons to believe the share price have not fully reflected its performance and potential. Personally, I prefer to miss a boat rather than to take a boat to 'horlan'. Please note it is your hard-earned money, it is your own responsibility to make an effort not to lose it. Education and effort are key to successful investing (+ luck too). If you have no time to do so, just put your money in FD or index funds. Better stop before my comment gets too long.

P.s. I consider myself 'newbie' as I am still learning.

@win188: 4Q15 is supposed to be out later this evening. IGB is not a 'goreng' stock...it is a waiting game. If you want 'goreng' ones, just go for the top 10 volume stocks.

Comparing VT to Warren Buffett???...dunno whether to laugh or cry at your title. BJCorp has a lot of assets but cashflow generation? If you compare BJCorp vs BRK returns to shareholders over past 10 or 20 years, you will understand my meaning. Once every few years or longer, BJCorp may spike up but that after, back to square one.

@Win188: 2.80??? Unlikely in the near term (unless another GO or a significant investment property divestment). IGB is more a 'waiting game' stock...if you expect short-term significant gains, be prepared to be disappointed. Based on share price of 2.30, dividend yield of 4.3% (assuming 10 sen p.a.) or 3.3% (assuming 7.5 sen p.a.) -> relatively decent yield for waiting.

win188: out today (25/11). The key issue with IGB: is it a "value trap"? A lot boils down to whether the major s/h (Tan family) wants to share the 'true value' of the group with minority shareholders or not (related to corporate governance). Current mkt sentiment is unfavourable to property counters, but IGB is more an investment properties holding company than a property developer.

IVKLSE: I can accept your viewpoint that Southkey's office and hotel components may not fare as well as Mid Valley City in KL (the demand-supply dynamics for office/hotel in Iskandar is rather weak at the moment) but timing will be key. However, the office/commercial part will be phased out and not be built first (will be timed accordingly - remember even Mid Valley City was planned in the late 1908s and construction commenced in the 1990s -> it took more than 20 years to build until its last/current project - Southpoint) . The first phase of Southkey project is the shopping mall. If you understand JB retail scene and know the connectivity of the Southkey Megamall, you can appreciate better why I think it will be successful. Firstly, it will be the biggest shopping mall in JB - size, location/accessibility and mall management matter in retail space. Secondly, its connectivity/location is the one of the best among its key competitors (currently, the most popular malls in JB are City Square/Komtar, Aeon Tebrau City, KSL Mall, Angsana Tampoi and Sutera Mall) - > its direct link to EDL is the key and it is only 5 min from the CIQ. Thirdly, IGB will have a ready tenant pool from its Megamall & Gardens shopping malls and has run both of them successfully.

As for your debt analysis on IGB, it is too flawed for me to explain...sorry about that. It will be too long for me to explain why your analysis is off tangent. For liquidity/debt stress analysis, you have to look at CASH FLOWS (IGB REIT is supposed to be geared for 'optimal' capital structure - you should look at interest expense coverage and maturity profile of loans/financing). For simplicity, just ask any experienced corporate banker whether they think IGB can repay loans/financing or not. We are all still learning - keep an open mind...a good start is to read the two independent advisers' reports on Goldis' takeover offer on IGB (you can get it from Bursa -> one is for Goldis s/hs and the other is for IGB s/hs).

BTW, someone/some parties have been slowly 'pressing down' IGB share price in the past few weeks - for unknown reason(s) (or rather cannot be posted on a share forum). The sellers' brokers are mainly from CS, UBS, CLSA and Hwang-Affin, they (CS and UBS) have been selling 1 bid lower in 'bite-sizes' (it is untypical of big-time foreign brokers such as CS and UBS to sell in 1 or 2 lots as it is a waste of their time unless there are specific instructions to do so or to meet an objective). Guess for yourself why they are doing that. If you study IGB's shareholding structure (Goldis owns 73.4% (excluding extended Tan family direct holdings), EPF - 5.1%, Public Mutual funds - 4.4%, GIC - 1.4% and treasury shares - 2.2% , you will know the remaining free float of IGB in the market is less than 15% in the market.

IVKLSE: do you know the concept of consolidation in accounting? Most of IGB's debts are parked under IGB Reit. From both balance sheet and cash flows perspective, IGB is one of the most financially sound property counters in Msia. However, its gearing MAY edge up in 15-17 due to its SouthKey Megamall in Iskandar, London and Southpoint@Mid valley projects.

Caveat: IGB is a not a short-term stock - you must have patience and 'out-wait' the Tan family for its potential. Its Southkey megamall will be a key catalyst from 2017.

FYI: http://www.theedgeproperty.com.my/content/igb-rm15b-cash-pile-generate-recurring-income . The article is more than two years ago but IGB's current cash position & cash flows at holding coy are still healthy after getting that cashpile from listing of IGB Reit.

You should also read independent adviser's report on Goldis' takeover offer on IGB in 2014.

Hi kltan, with regard to your query on Pembinaan Gejati...the transaction were just a transfer of inter-coy balance with no cash involved i.e left-hand to right-hand from SAB group's perspective. It is done for t........ purposes if you are familiar with corporate finance and group corporate structure design. Hope the above explanation helps, my upfront apologies for not spelling 't..'word in full.

Hi tonylim,

It is located at the end of Jln Wong Ah Fook, behind Tropical Inn and next to Wisma Maria (medical centre). Less than 1km from City Square and JB Sentral/CIQ.

http://www.asiaexplorers.com/malaysia/menara-landmark.htm

https://plus.google.com/102784791164438642734/about?gl=my&hl=en

GPS: 1.465503, 103.760095

Hi Calvintaneng, the boss of Daiman is Mr Chua??? I thought the Tay family controls Daiman. Can you shed some light? Yes, the office and retail podium was bought from an auction, while the hotel building (part of Menara Landmark mixed development) was purchased through a private treaty. Overall, Menara Landmark was acquired by Daiman at an attractive price.

Hi GoogleKaki and calvintaneng, I have access to all RHB reports but I cannot find any RHB research on Daiman. The only one I have in the past week is their retail research - technical reading on Daiman.

If you have a copy of the RHB Research on Daiman with TP: RM7.00, can you post it here for reference? Thank you.

What report? If quarterly results, company only need to issue by 30 April...

I cannot edit my earlier post...my apologies on Kenanga issuing a note on SBC Corp later PublicInvest. I overlooked that Kenanga had issued a Trading Buy note on SBC Corp on 20th June 2013. Anyway, SBC Corp share price only moved up in later half of Feb 2014.
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/chart/5207.jsp

As for SAB, after such a steep run-up, it is better to be careful (particularly, for short-term punters with no holding power).

Eric123, just because you lost money in SBC Corp on 15 Jan 2014 due to your short-term trading mentality (btw, SAB is not meant for punting -> I agree with Yogibear), you accused PublicInvest for being 'lousy'. If you have kept SBC Corp since their non-rated note on SBC Corp issued on 15 Jan 2014 ( http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PublicInvest/44887.jsp ), you will have made >65% in less than 4 months. PublicInvest issued a note on SBC Corp months before Kenanga and CIMB even initiated on it.

Anyway, every house will have good and bad calls. If you have bought shares for a long time (>20 years), you will recognise anyone who can give more right calls than wrong ones as good (out of 10 calls, 6 right ones are already considered positive alpha). The key idea is to maximise the gains (ride the winners) and minimise your losses (cut the losers).

Posted by zcling > Feb 18, 2014 05:45 PM
Check out from here.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/rhb/46447.jsp

Check the analyst writing on Datasonic:
https://research.osk188.com/attachments/52/osk-report-2013-strategy_media_20121231_osk-FxM665017871850e0e663bfb38.pdf

http://www.themalaysiantimes.com.my/osk-research-report-wrong-star/

I rest my case...