cherry88

cherry88 | Joined since 2014-08-04

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Stock

2017-06-03 09:45 | Report Abuse

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/01/14/poh-huat-banks-on-us-for-growth

Calvin, Let's work out some maths based on its latest media coverage in TheStar on 14/1/17.

"Poh Huat group financial controller Lee Ing Tiong says the company has set up a foreign exchange benchmark of 4.2 ringgit per US dollar for its financial year ending Oct 31, 2017 (FY17)"

"For 2017, Poh Huat is targeting an increase in revenue of between 15% to 20% and to maintain a profit before tax margin of at least 12%"

"It recently ventured into Australia after buying a detached warehouse cum office-showroom in Dandenong, Victoria, Australia for A$4.25mil (RM13.29mil) in September 2016. “Australians have almost the same taste like the Americans. “We believe that it would take at least two years to see the impact,” he says."

Management has guided a exchange rate of RM4.20 which is rather fair and conservative. The US currency was trading at 4.40 level in Jan and 4.30 level currently, and in fact, many banks start to forecast Ringgit to trade at 4.20 level by year end. It concludes that management has been very prudent in managing the costs. They have anticipated the raw material to rise after Chinese New Year too. Given this, I expect the 2nd q result will be much better than 2nd q last year. But, don't expect it will perform better than 1st q this year or 4q last year, because 2nd q is a low peak quarter and 4th q is the top peak period.

Poh Huat is targeting 15% growth in sales in 2017. So, we expect sales in 2017 to be RM615.50mil. Given its PBT margin of 12%, this works out PBT of RM73.86mil and net profit of RM59mil (assume tax rate of 20% as per last year). EPS will be 27.68 sen in 2017 (growth by 25%). So, it is trading at prospective PE of 6.6x, which I feel is low (I may be wrong here). I do expect furniture counters to trade at PE of 9x ~ 10x , which translate to RM2.50 (fair value) !

Management is active to look out for expansion. However, don't expect immediate fruit within these 2 to 4 years from Australia (or southern part of the globe). So, I personally don't look at it for the time being. Maybe I would have exited at RM2.50 by end of this year !

Finally, management has consistently paying dividend of 2 sen per quarter, which work out 8 sen per year or payout of 36% or yield of 4.4%, which is good (but not excellent if compare to Lii Hen of 22 sen dividend or payout of 53% or yield of 6.9% ! However, it is better than the stingy Latitude of paying merely 12 sen dividend or payout of 16% or yield of 2.3% !). Anyway, I expect Poh huat to declare higher than 8sen dividend this year given better profit. Assuming they maintain similar payout, we can expect total dividend of 10sen this year. Let's hope for it or exit at RM2.50 ??

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2017-06-03 08:59 | Report Abuse

Calvin, I am not trying to critise you. But I am merely highlighting some facts which I think are misleading to readers. However, I still need to thanks you that I follow your advise to long into DRB and exited with profits.
I study Poh Huat in details because I own the shares currently.

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2017-06-02 11:32 | Report Abuse

CIMB buy call at RM1.29. Start to accumulate aggressively now. Syndicates are inside

News & Blogs

2017-06-02 11:24 | Report Abuse

"Mr. Tay Khim Seng already a Top Holder of Pohuat has recently bought into Pohuat warrants."

Calvin, please lah....he is top holder ? unless he is Tay Kim Huat's nominee.
How many he holds the warrants ? Only 301,600 warrants as at 24/5 announcement. How much the warrants worth ? RM250k++ !! yaya....300,000 warrants can be listed in top 30. LOL

News & Blogs

2017-06-02 11:13 | Report Abuse

Patron, I am a little cherry. I am not competing with DATUK Calvin. I just want him not to push stocks by bull shit people. He may push stock by giving us the facts. Again, Poh Huat is only a small little fly in this globe. Please don't compare with giant furniture companies lah.

News & Blogs

2017-06-02 10:53 | Report Abuse

"On December 23 to 26, 2016 Pohuat was traded at a low of Rm1.25 When Calvin issued the above strong buy call."

"For good growth stocks the longer you hold the better they will be just like keeping old wine."

Well.....do you still hold Poh Huat until now (since your chun chun call in Dec 2016 ?

News & Blogs

2017-06-02 10:48 | Report Abuse

"Unlike Malaysia suffering downturn Vietnam is now in a Hot Property Boom Time. And furniture will be needed for new homes. And office furniture also needed for new businesses all over Vietnam. This augurs well for Pohuat as its 2 Factories are well positioned"

Calvin, Poh Huat never sell furniture in Vietnam lah ! It manufactures in Vietnam and sell to US. Please read its annual report carefully. Refer to its Management Discussion & analysis, US and Canada are making up 2/3 and 1/4 of group sales, while remaining from UK, Malaysia, S'pore and Middle East

News & Blogs

2017-06-02 10:41 | Report Abuse

"As of now (just 3 Quarters) the yield is already a commendable 12% (21.93 divides by Rm1.82) 3 times that of Bank FD at 4%."

Calvin, don't bull shit people by giving wrong fact ! Poh Huat is paying 2 sen per quarter for the past year. So, assume 8 sen per year, its yield is 4.39%

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2017-05-31 21:01 | Report Abuse

No dividend announced. The 2 sen was refer to the special dividend announced earlier

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2017-05-31 17:03 | Report Abuse

I don't think the results will be exciting. The RI also will not be included in the accounts. Wondering they will disclose its details in the Notes or not ? We can only do a guessing...cash on hand at least RM500mil not including the RI proceeds.

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2017-05-31 16:55 | Report Abuse

2 sen dividend ?? sure ?

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2017-05-31 16:31 | Report Abuse

Technical rebound...why exit so fast ? Once momentum maintain, can accumulate more aggressive

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2017-05-26 18:08 | Report Abuse

most important is the dividend policy...whey they did not declare dividend in the 1Q

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2017-05-26 11:22 | Report Abuse

Buy back at 90 sen, its support level

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2017-05-25 09:24 | Report Abuse

the fact is .....no....anyway....enough lah...take profit and walk away

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2017-05-25 09:12 | Report Abuse

Whatever it is...buy on rumour SELL on fact. Despite the strong results, Syndicate had taken the profit and left. It leaves to retailers to "kill each other". Better sell now before too late. Volumn shrink.

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2017-05-22 14:21 | Report Abuse

However, this cherry88 is merely telling the facts from accounts and past history, not fortune teller.

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2017-05-22 14:16 | Report Abuse

khatulistiwa1234, CHEEY MADAM is another FORTUNE TELLER ! Better don't listen too much

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2017-05-22 12:03 | Report Abuse

Shernius, if you buy today, you will not entitle the 2 sen special dividend today. However, we expect the management to declare another XX sen final dividend during their results announcement before month end. Assuming they maintain 2 sen final dividend as per prior years, then the yield will be >7.5%, better than FD or the diamond

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2017-05-21 09:44 | Report Abuse

Moreover, its adjusted (after rights issue) net cash per share is 26 sen ! Howe can it not afford a 2 sen dividend ? Its NTA also stood at RM34 sen ! Anything drop below 26 sen is just a BUY without question. You are buying something for less than 26sen in exchange with cash of 26 sen ! (Assume it is not like Enron or Xiang Leng ...haha). Easily toward 30 sen !! With annual dividend of 2 sen, yield is 6.7% (now is 7.4% based on 27sen closing)

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2017-05-21 09:33 | Report Abuse

Sure huat !! why ? Because the previous 2 sen dividend is "special dividend". It is obvious that it was the sweetener for the Rights Issue ! Now, major shareholder has mooked up most of the shares. time to declare another "usual" 2 sen dividend to reward THEMSELVES ! haha.......we may not as rich as them, but following from behind may soon be closer to them...

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2017-05-21 09:04 | Report Abuse

Hi guys, let's digest some news/ info here. Based on last year dividend of 13sen at current price of RM2.10, the yield is 6.2%. Assume dividend moving forward cut down by 50% to say 7sen forever, fair price could be RM1.13 (worst scenario). If we assume Magnum don't pay dividend for only this year (FY2017), and resume dividend of 12sen p.a moving forward, then fair price could drop by 13sen to RM1.97. These are 2 extreme scenario. Let's take an average long term dividend payment of 10sen p.a, then fair value could be RM1.62. So, FV could be in range of RM1.65 to RM2.00.

Tax impact of RM476mil...hmm...these could be 2 years earnings or 33sen per share. This has not booked in as provision in its accounts yet. IF Magnum loss to IRB, we would a knee jerk effect of dropping another 30sen !

Personally, RM1.70 could be a good bet !

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2017-05-19 16:52 | Report Abuse

Good Luck ! hng33....We are on the same boat

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2017-05-19 16:07 | Report Abuse

Don't be surprise it will declare its final dividend coming result announcement month end, in additional to the 2 sen special dividend ex next Monday.

News & Blogs
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2017-05-19 09:23 | Report Abuse

RM1.20 before results announcement....all retailers are waking up now

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2017-05-19 09:19 | Report Abuse

RM1 is just beginning

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2017-05-19 09:14 | Report Abuse

Market rumours : Duta is subject to be privatize by major shareholders at RM1.20 ! Stay !

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2017-05-19 09:13 | Report Abuse

Sit tight. Hold on. Some major announcement is on going

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2017-05-19 09:10 | Report Abuse

No need capital reduction now. No par value now. Don't worry.

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2017-05-18 17:16 | Report Abuse

The most reasonable rumours is they are going to revalue its properties and NTA will surge, prepare for the REIT listing. Buy now before they announce its property revaluation exercise !

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2017-05-18 17:05 | Report Abuse

Other retailers are still sleeping.....institutions are picking up slowly.....target to RM1.20 by month end

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2017-05-18 15:19 | Report Abuse

The price movement will tell you the truth. Tan Sri is involved to clean up the debt and account, not creating the debt and account

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2017-05-18 14:59 | Report Abuse

it is VERY VERY SAFE counter ! Its has turn from highly gear to almost no gearing ! Its NTA stands at RM1.10, more than 50% cushion. Shareholders are continuing buying and accumulating. Cannot drop further anymore. What is down must up eventually

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2017-05-18 14:54 | Report Abuse

All negative news priced in. Time to boom

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2017-05-18 13:45 | Report Abuse

1MDB and Bandar Malaysia will be saved if under his good hand. He is the best magic person

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2017-05-18 13:44 | Report Abuse

Tan Sri Azman was appointed by the Malaysian Government to set up and head Danaharta, the national asset management company and subsequently became its chairman until 2003. He was also the Chairman of the Corporate Debt and Restructuring Committee (CDRC) which was set up by Bank Negara Malaysia to mediate and assist in the debt restructuring of viable companies until its closure in 2002.

He holds a first class honours degree in Economics from the London School of Economics and Political Science, and is a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW), member of the Malaysian Institute of Accountants (MIA) and a Fellow of the Malaysian Institute of Banks.

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2017-05-18 11:54 | Report Abuse

Limit up afternoon ? Once announce to tender the Bandar Malaysia involvement, given his special connection with connected people.....dreaming...LOL

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2017-05-18 09:48 | Report Abuse

Not "may"...."will" above RM1. Given its NTA of RM2.12....easily hit RM1.1 early next month

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2017-05-17 17:21 | Report Abuse

Buy on rumour...sell on fact...Symlife may get a portion of the project. Of course not the whole project.

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2017-05-17 15:03 | Report Abuse

If the rumours of involvement in Bandar Malaysia comes true, it will limit up like IWC. Don't worry

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2017-05-17 12:11 | Report Abuse

still cheap lah friend.....

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2017-05-17 10:33 | Report Abuse

This company is severely undervalue. It has > RN1bil unbill sales and still active with order book. NTA stands at RM2.12 with reasonable gearing. Market valuation is estimated at RM4. Most importantly, paying consistent dividend ! RM1 is too low in < 12 month target

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2017-05-16 18:05 | Report Abuse

There are rumours saying the company will team up with China's Dalian Wanda Group as master developer in Bandar Malaysia ! Buy it before it is too late. Anyway, the company will announce its excellent set of results together with lucrative dividend soon.

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2017-05-15 17:01 | Report Abuse

sure ? price keep dropping

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2017-05-09 09:17 | Report Abuse

Further, if you read the CIMB research carefully, CIMB "forecast" a dividend of 4.2sen in FY2017 (ended 31Mar2017, to announce end of month). This is rather "high" compare to 2sen previously. I am sure CIMB has certain level of "information" to forecast such "high" dividend payout.

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2017-05-09 09:10 | Report Abuse

DRB will announce a fantastic result before end of the month, due mainly to the POS. CIMB has already gotten its first hand information by upgrade its target to RM2.25. Don't forget DRB will normally announce dividend (despite huge losses) at year end. Given its historical NTA of RM2.29, more upside is justify. I value at RM2.00 for the time being