Tks DK, you made it super clear and simple. More importantly this contract is just amazing and gives guaranteed returns to Jaks for 25yrs !!!

http://www.ceec.net.cn/art/2020/11/25/art_11016_2346474.html

Units#1 confirmed COD run..congratulations to Jaks n CECC

Icwin and Henry ...you are absolutely right. The management (APL n Original Inv) alone holds nearly 45% of WB. If you include related parties they should hold at least 60% ! 2nd point, they paid 25cent for WB when it was issued. 3rd point ,if you do a simple simulation using the standard adjustment formula (also use by DK in his article on WB adjustment ), amazingly WB may even end up on top, esp at current spread. So knowledge of the truth can even the playing field...

yes..starting now....

Dear SSLee, a v good write up. Just couple of thoughts here. May be good to have a conclusion section stating clearly n succinctly your objections and proposals . Think is good too to either copy or write direct to Jak's BOD as well. Tks

.....don't forget ALP hold the most WB !!!

Great initiative DK...lots of us are tired just looking at the few "tin kosong" trying to seek vendetta, create confusion n just throwing out negativities. Count me in .tq

In a year to two, when the power plant is in full swing, share px would be following suit. At that time, dont be surprised , shareholders n institution may be pleading for the company for RI ! Moving to 40% is risk-free to Jaks and with an upside of 33% to earning !In any case with FCF of at least rm300M annually, Jaks could easily take its rightful share of 40%

Shan Kee Tiow , DK66 ,Ehome009 or anyone else , would you know or best guess on what approach and factors did the PB analyst used in his computation and deriving a value of rm2.2629B for MFCB's 80% of Don Shanong ? Tks

Shan Kee Tiow THX VIN3133
The best way is to refer to the SOTP valuation method of mfcb.
16/05/2020 4:38 PM

Wow..thanks to Ehome009 for your eagle eye and DK66 for verifying and further clarification.
Out of curiosity I look at the latest MFCB analyst report (3rd April 2020) also by Public Investment Bank though different analyst. Imagine and interestingly they value the Don Sahong project at rm2.6297B.
Lets see when the two analysts get calibrated, what will Hai Duong Project be worth !!!

MFCB
Sum-Of-Parts Valuations Valuation Basis Value (RMm) RM/share
Resources CY20 PER of 12x 132.8 0.28
Don Sahong hydropower project 80% stake (WACC: 9.8%) 2,629.7 5.54
Investment in quoted shares Book Value 43.2 0.09
Investment Properties Book Value 177.2 0.37

Fully-diluted Target Price (RM/share) 2,982.9 6.29

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/2020-05-11-story-h1506997567-A_stock_investment_tip_Always_do_your_homework_kcchongnz.jsp

An interesting and wise article by KC Chong, as always ! He also made some good commendations of various people who wrote and contributed positively in I3. Chief of these is DK 66...and i quote

" There are some good writers and individual analyst in i3investor too. DK66 is one of them who is an expert in project costing and financial appraisal of IPP, a good investor, with great humility too. Good job DK, Jie Yu! Choivo Capital, although a young man very assertive and hence may have offended many people, is knowledgeable and good analysis and a great writer too. I believe he has done reasonably well too in his investment. Investbullbear has written a lot of good articles too. Ricky Yeo, a widely read young man, is another one whose articles many people can learn from, including myself. Pity we do not see his articles any more nowadays. My good friend Yi stock has written good analysis of some stocks but also don’t see him writing any more. Anyone interested in stock analysis can also refer to Icon8888. Many of his stocks write-up are good too. There is another good contributor, teoct who has written some of the best articles on QL and I remember a man of great humility too. Not forgetting someone named Philip, appears to be very good in qualitative analysis of business.

The above are just some of the good writers and analysts one can follow in i3investor for free. The list above is not exhausted. There are many more, and sorry if I forgot to mention. "

Just to refresh our memory.....at least 15% IRR was the term used here and published in The Edge , May13 2015 !


"......Sources say the project’s IRR is at least 15% because the power purchase agreement is on a take-or-pay basis, which requires Vietnam Electricity to pay for the power generated whether or not there is demand for it.

The agreement also has cost-pass-through mechanisms, including any volatility in fuel costs and exchange rates. JPHD will be paid in US dollars, which will increase JAKS’ exposure to foreign exchange volatility as it will have to convert the money into dong to pay its operational costs.

For starters, a 15% IRR is akin to the contracts signed by Tenaga with the local first-generation independent power producers, says the source, adding that Vietnam Electricity is committed to take up all the energy generated by the power plant or pay the generation costs...."
amarul Azhar
/
The Edge Malaysia

May 13, 2015 19:00 pm +08

DK66 n OTB , given following situation its seem highly likely that Jaks will take up the additional 10% share to 40% by 2021 itself. Its like all green scenario ! What do you think ?

(a) cost of additional 10% is estimated to be rm260M ( quote DK)
(b) potential free cash flow attributable to Jaks = rm294 ( quote DK)
(c) The management is very eager to buy up another 10% of JHDP urgently.( quote OTB)

Yes..this article nail it all...Great Job as always DK66 .

How true the wise man who say this .." short term the market is like a voting machine, long term it is a weighing machine " So short term all king of gyrations,noises, greed,fear are occuring ! Longer term, like water will always find its own level, Jaks will find its true Value , irregardless of who say what !!! Looks like "duduk di rumah diam diam" is still the best strategy for Jaks believer .

Thanks n much appreciated DK 66...hope it will enlighten another new generations post Covid 19

"Those who sow in tears shall reap with joy....Psalm 126:5 "

Probability....Thankyou too for sharing your indepth knowledge and experience. Always encouraging even in the worst of time like this past wk !!! Mind sharing a bit of your background.....not obligated but appreciated. Tks

DK 66.....Thanks again DK, you have nailed it , again and again. We now have 2 solid actually running coal power station right in Vietnam (one built by CPECC group, imagine that ) to derive all important data..efficiency, earning. Its more than good enough. TQ again.

OTB, thanks a million. Every point is factual and hit bullseye. Proposal in point no 12 is just outstanding and win-win-win !!! Pray and wish your meeting tomorrow will be fruitful and constructive . If it is not convenient for full debrief in this forum, perhaps can call a separate meeting . BTW, more than 90% of the forumner here are with you except a couple of stray. Just ignore them .


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
OTB : My Miss Universe stock - Jaks

1) I still like the share price of Jaks, the share price is above 200-day SMA today which is a good sign.
2) As long as the share price of Jaks is above 200-day SMA, we should hold tight on this stock.
3) The COD (Commercial Operation Date) of Unit 1 of Hai Duong power plant is around May/June 2020.
.
.
12) I will suggest to the management of Jaks to use Jaks shares listed in KLSE to swap for 10% option of Hai Duong power plant stake. No money needs to come out from Jaks and CPECC to own certain % of Jaks shares listed in KLSE in return. This will make CPECC a major shareholder of Jaks listed in KLSE. This suggestion will be a win-win situation for both Jaks and CPECC.hank you.
10/03/2020 11:17 PM

Tks DK...the BOT contracts is indeed extremely lucrative. We were told during last yr AGM that the Viet government would not issue such lucrative contract anymore ! Jaks and their investors are so fortunate.

Hi Dk...the estimated earning of Vinh Tan1 from the other article ( Average valuation of Jaks Hai Duong Power Plant )
is rm287m to rm290M (30 to 40%) . Is the assumption different here or i miss out something ? Tks

Thanks DK66 for the enlightening analysis . A much better than expected Qtr4 2019 performance by Jaks and wise decision from management to clean-house before the Vietnam power plant comes on stream very soon.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
DK66 https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-02-27-story-h1...
27/02/2020 11:54 PM

Looking at the last 3 qtrs released dates...theres a possibility that the 4qtr 2019 results could be released today or tomorrow ?

Dk66..thankyou for another outstanding write up. Although this is a compilation , it comes with a new insight on law of averages .This certainly boost our confidence level to a much higher level . Also , within two year, 40% ownership and with that PE of 15 or more is realistic. Great job !

Dk66..thankyou for another outstanding write up. Although this is a compilation , it comes with a new insight on law of averages .This certainly boost our confidence level much more . Also , within two year 40% ownership and with that PE of 15 or more s realistic. Great job !

OTB..thanks for doing the right things, always, for others and your client ! BTW, few months back you propose a site visit to
Jak's Haiduong plant. This maybe more effective and with a personal touch , since the CEO prefer the low key and conservative approach ?

hng33, Absolutely and very true indeed..that Jaks is an excellent proxy to and exposure to Vietnam's explosive economy growth for years or even decades to come. Its very reminiscent of early days YTL in high growth Malaysia in the 80s to 90s !!! Except that given Vietnam's population, focus and lack of political distraction...it will exceed Malaysia by far. Sadly but true.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
hng33
Jaks previously still in doubt, but it have already improving with Power plant near completion, unleash its potential soon. jaks is future GEM due awaiting for market re-rating now. Upside potential is very high. The slower Malaysia economic growth is opportunity to swap and focus to Vietnam high economic growth, which is Direct beneficial from trade war and redirect investment from China to Vietnam, spur up power demand significantly. BNM likely need to further cut rate, more fund will free up to channel for investment in stock market + Institutional fund need to readjust their portfolio to include jaks as alternative proxy and exposure to Vietnam economic growth oversea exposure (Jaks 100% profit derive from Vietnam power) to seek higher return
12/02/2020 5:12 PM

Wall Street all green...will be another HOPEFUL day for Jaks !

Amazing breaking thru the tough nut 140 barrier ! PTL

Thanks for sharing n caring ,OTB. This time round the TA are closely aligned and backed by factual events ie the imminent commercial running of unit 1 in March 2020

Thanks Probability n DK66.....make better sense what you say than google !

DK66 , Ricky , Probability ....based on the statement " The start-up and grid-connected power generation were completed as scheduled." (Google translation) ..it seems that unit 1 is already connected to the National Electric Grid system and power generation has started !!! Is this the case ? Any thought ?



++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Ricky Kiat : http://www.aepc1.ceec.net.cn/art/2020/2/1/art_14612_2062836.html
南海阳60万：1号机组锅炉吹管圆满完成
05/02/2020 1:23 PM

" On January 28, local time, the Haiyang 2 × 600 MW coal-fired power plant project completed the goal of No. 1 boiler No. 2 boiler ignition flushing tube, marking the successful completion of the boiler blowing pipe of No. 1 unit of Vietnam Hai Yang project, which is a complete set of follow-up units The start-up and grid-connected power generation were completed as scheduled."

Thanks again Ricky for the timely update with great news !!! Take note of the last sentence below :

" On January 28, local time, the Haiyang 2 × 600 MW coal-fired power plant project completed the goal of No. 1 boiler No. 2 boiler ignition flushing tube, marking the successful completion of the boiler blowing pipe of No. 1 unit of Vietnam Hai Yang project, which is a complete set of follow-up units. The start-up and grid-connected power generation were completed as scheduled."
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Good job Jaks....resilience and progressive as more n more people recognise its true value ! More on the way. PTL

Agreed 100% with Probability. With annual cashflow of rm1.3Billion to the JV, Jaks portion (30%) would be in the rm400Million range...It is self financing to acquire additional 10%, making Jaks a 40% owner of a major fully running 1200MW Power Station. Note that it only needs to paid up, sign some document and wosh..it becomes a 40% owner instantly. Thats a 33% increase in ownership and therefore profit/earning too .( Unlike the case of say, MFCB to increase from four to five turbines take couple of years to manufacture, install n commission.) All these happening in a 2 years or so time span. PTL



+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
probability : Just using a gap of 1.5 years between the cumulative cash out flow of US$ 1.87 Billion and the first recurring future cash in flow from electricity sales...estimated annual cash in flow would be RM 1.3 Million to obtain an IRR of 12% (6500 hrs).

For sure JAKS will increase their stakes to 40%...and for sure the operating hours will exceed 7200 hrs..

.................

coronavirus can effect businesses worldwide but not utility sector.....

as they days tick we can only get closer to commercial operation
30/01/2020 5:57 PM

Icwin, better still pls list down your computation, estimates, assumption here, we all can learn something . Tks

Thanks DK....this is truly great news !!! It means the Turbine is now given a green light and ready to roll, subject to completion of some accessories and safety procedure. March 3 live turn on is on schedule. PTL

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
DK66 : boiler 1 successfully completed steam blow !
21/01/2020 9:04 PM

omg..slicing thru 150 (1.3m plus ) with no resistance....

"The immediate resistance is rm160 "...implying little resistance between 143 to 160 !!!. The positive macro n micro environment make for a good CNY rally..all good for Jaks. PTL

Jaks @ 150 within sight for today !!! .PTL

The attached extract is taken from a 2015 research paper, " Study on economics of coal fired power generations projects in China" . Note that those power stations were built at least 5 to 10yrs ago, yet they can produce Project IRR of 15% to 17% and a Payback of 5 to 6 year !!! Take note too that due to overcapacity of thermal power plant and lower demand in China around 2014/2015, the utilisation hours drops to 5000Hrs level. (No wonder the chinese power plant companies were so hungry and grab whatever opportunity available...to the full advantage of Jaks !!!)


"Pursuant to the method for determination of the practices and discount rate of the energy sector, the full investment IRR of a 600MW coal-fired power plant is set to 6.6%and the proprietary funds IRR is set to 8%
[21]
, i.e. the benchmark rate of return of the sector. This analysis shows that the rate of return of the coal power project of each
typical province is far higher than the benchmark level of the power sector. Especially for Hebei, Jiangsu and Guangdong, the full investment IRR exceeds 15% and the equity capital IRR close to or exceeds 30%, and the coal power enterprises can even recoup Equity Capital in less than three years and 5 to 6 years for Project Full Investment. This high IRR and this short payback period likely reveal the economic driven factor for the unabated interest in coal power investment in the environment of weak demand and low-carbon transformation."

The imminent catalyst happened...explosive breakout right now..PTL

PJ
The imminent catalyst should be the successful completion of the Steam Blow test..any time now.
Suntory's statement would implied the test is indeed successfully completed !

===================================================================
pjseow : The jaks share price has been hovering.between 1.20 and 1.30 for more than a month. It is waiting for a.catalyst to trigger the next rally.
The catalyst is the announcement of the next successful completion of an important milestone. The situation can be best described as 万事俱備,只欠东风.
14/01/2020 9:56 AM

=====================================================================
Suntory : Today expert from China examine Hai Doung turbine in preparation for trial start up
14/01/2020 9:47 AM

As far as I understand, 2 major tenants are on board ie Honda Car and a Postnatal care centre.
That was more than 2 months back, am sure by now many more would have signed up !

===============================================================
Nikmon : Pacific star mall light up...but no sign of what shop to be open there...
12/01/2020 9:17 AM

Steam blow test is comprehensive and critical test...could take 2 to 4 wks. But once finished , the rest of the commissioning is more procedural and safety in nature, though still time consuming.Hence April/May COD still in line for unit 1.

=========================================================================
Nikmon : Seems like steam blow test delay, with closer to Chinese new year..probably only can complete the test in Feb
11/01/2020 6:51 PM

If you are willing lets take a further look into 2022 ! Jaks is given the option to acquire additional 10% of HaiDuong Power Station, making it a very significant 40% partner. The dateline is 3years from COD at a cost of about rm250M. (This is another juicy part of the contract not frequently talk about yet ) Given that projected cashflow for 2021 itself is sufficient for the acquisition..it is no brainer Jaks will make the acquisition. And I think they will do it sooner than later..probably by 2022. BTW, Jaks will have 3 board seats rep and CPECC will have 2 board seat for the first 3years. So what will be the impact ?

Net profit for 2021 (Full production and 30% stake) = RM 287 million.
EPS = 287/643 = 0.446
Base on PER = 10, the target price of Jaks should be RM 4.46 in 2021.

Net profit for 2022 (Full production and 40% stake) = RM 382 million.
EPS = 382/643 = 59.5
Base on PER = 10, the target price of Jaks should be RM5.95 in 2022.

When the HaiDuong plant is fully operational by 2nd half 2020 and Jaks acquired 40% stake, I suspect the PE will go well above 10 ! Anyone is free to debates the numbers or facts ,better still provides your rational or data but pls do so with a good spirit. PTL


=============================================================

OTB :
Posted by leapkcfy > Jan 6, 2020 5:16 PM | Report Abuse

Latest update by the local?

andry_ong https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=156538069016647&id=108...
Latest project update in veitnamese, basically the 1st unit will operate 1st week of April and will join to national grid on the 15may2020.

Posted by ok > Jan 6, 2020 5:37 PM | Report Abuse

and estimated 7.5 billion kwh output annually.

----------------------------------------
Ans :
Please refer to DK66's article below,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2019-10-02-story228...

I just take a quick calculation on the net profit of Hai Duong power plant.
8.094 billion KWH = RM310 million.
7.5 billion KWH = RM 310/8.094*7.5 = RM 287 million.

Net profit for 2021 (Full production and 30% stake) = RM 287 million.
EPS = 287/643 = 0.446
Base on PER = 10, the target price of Jaks should be RM 4.46 in 2021.

This figure is even higher than my initial estimated net profit of RM 250 million in 2021.

Special thanks to DK66.
I always praise DK66 because he is the most knowledgeable person on Hai Duong power plant in Vietnam.
I admire his hard work and respect his kindness to share his knowledge in I3.
I never buy Jaks in 2016/7/8 until 8/10/2019, I buy Jaks because I trust DK66's report.
I spent almost 4 days to really digest all his reports, I am convinced that his postings are the most accurate one so far.
Please do not attack him unless you can prove that you are better than DK66.

Thank you. 06/01/2020 8:33 PM

Sarifah, tks for reminder via reposting. I remember during the 2018 AGM held on 25June 2019, few of us ask specifically for the cause of delay in construction of Star Tower. The BOD responded well and made a clear and firm statement that it is due to request by Star for significant changes to building design ( facade, etc ). The last of these changes happened around middle of 2017, hence 3years to delivery is JUNE 2020 !!! I also requested the BOD to engage the best lawyers in town....subsequently found out there did !

================================================================
SarifahSelinder :The Board of Directors of Jaks Resources Berhad (“JRB”) or the “Company”) wishes to inform that the Company and its subsidiary JAKS Island Circle Sdn. Bhd. (“JIC”) has on 30 May 2019 filed a claim against STAR at the Kuala Lumpur High Court for breach of the Sale and Purchase Agreement dated 19 August 2011 (“SPA”) entered into between STAR and JIC.



The Company and JIC are claiming against STAR the following reliefs:-



1. a declaration that the Completion Period for JIC to deliver STAR’s entitlement under the SPA is on 20 June 2020;



2. a declaration that STAR has breached the SPA;



3. a declaration that STAR is unjustly enriched;



4. the sum of RM248,242,987.62 to be paid to JIC as liquidated and ascertained damages;



5. the sum of RM297,035,481.00 to be paid to JRB as loss of proceeds from corporate fund raising exercises;



6. the sum of RM50,000,000-00 together with all interests and all related costs incurred thereto pursuant to the Bank Guarantees that is to be refunded and/or returned to JIC within 7 days from the date of the Court Order; and



7. damages.



The Company will make further announcement on the developments of the above matter as and when necessary.



This announcement is dated 31 May 2019.

Probability, Ricky , Ramada and DK66.......thankyou so much for diligently updating us with precious pictures, videos, news statement, etc. They speaks volumes, inspires confidence and enable us to walk thru and experience the exciting progress of Hai Duong Power Plant as though we are the business owners (which we are, most of us i belief ) ! Thankyou and may God bless the works of your hand.

Lowest thermal coal px in a decade !! Looks like it will drop further or remain low for a long time to come. This is great news as it will cost less n less for Viet govn to operates and thus higher priority will be accorded to Hai duong type of power plant to function. PTL

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/27/price-of-australian-thermal-coal-slumps-to-lowest-in-more-than-a-decade