AR out, cold eyes added 2 mil shares, also noticed new insti bought

Oil price does affect this stock somewhat, but its all sentiment, business wise, they are petronas OPEX contractor, meaning they help maintain petronas assets, they'll do well as long as they get contract to help maintain the assets, stable business wont experience big boom during high oil price, but wont b affected as badly in low oil price

@value_invest its ur money, its up to u how u invest it, just b careful bro since u went almost all in, i wish u the best, at least dun lose money haha, we'll see, im looking forward to the AR at end of Oct / early Nov, i wan see if cold eyes got add more shares

Even though this counter is good, i dun go all in, i have a significant position in my portfolio, i think its the 2nd largest allocation at 17-18%, but i dun put all into this counter no matter how good it is, cos nothing is 100% certain in stock market, as for JAKS, i didnt really study much but if an investment is too complicated, i tend to stay away, i only invest in what i understand, JAKS cud rally more than jtiasa, but i dun understand and wont touch it, cos no1 rule is dun lose money, and u can easily lose money if u invest in something u dun understand, mike im not bashing u, u cud b right about JAKS, i just dun understand and imo dun think its a good investment for now

This counter thesis initially was pure dividend play, and its all about FCF, DPS went from 3.2 to 6, while on the surface the profits went down yoy, its mainly cos of non cash items (impairment of timber division) and with management paying down debt agressively, even if production numbers stay static, the financing cost will go down and with debt repayment completed, the dividends cud easily 2x or 3x, add on potential revision of windfall tax, >97% prime mature age trees, cheap valuation, this is counter with multiple catalyst, the only risk is management if they dun give out more dividends, but based on FY23 and 24, i think so far doesnt seem likely

Damn MACC raided YTLC office for corruption on 1BestariNet project
https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2024/09/04/macc-raids-ytl-communications-in-probe-on-1bestarinet-project/

next catalyst will in oct, i expect johari to push through reduction of windfall tax for plantation
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/717566

If u read closely, paid down debt total 150m+ for FY24, 1 off 50m subsidiary, 40m dividends and taxation of ard 50m extra vs 2023, the FCF for FY24 is almost 300m plus, dividend payout ratio went from 20 to 40%, without all these 1 off expenses, dividends cud easily double, i expect FY25 to be great as management shown to be managing cost well as margins are maintaning

Fair points, so areas to watch will be how much the AI data center can contribute to earnings, wessex water ofwat draft for FY25-29 and YTLC developement

For AI data center, its just a matter of waiting for more news/development ? same for wessex water ofwat draft

As for YTLC, I dun expect YTLC to make big profits but as long as breakeven is good enuf, but i think we can agree that YTLC is the hardest to project, it wud b good if they are venture into other revenue stream besides the ultra competitive low margin consumer telco business, but this is a wait and see, i'll b watching the DNB and 2nd 5g network developement closely
Lastly for the Brabazon property, AFAIK, UK property market is not very good now, based on some conversations with analyst and fund managers, but with cooling inflation in UK, there might b some good developement, might i suggest monitoring EWINT cos they also have properties in UK, if they do well, we can expect some upside from this project, but my concerns as with all property business, is how recurrent is the income from property related business cos most arent recurring unless its rental

excellent analysis, my qs is we expect power seraya earnings to slower come down, but the question remains will the profits in other segments mainly investment holdings be able to make up for that difference? cos i dun expect wessex water and especially ytlc to make significant contributions to make up for power seraya's slow earnings deterioration.
Also many thanks on mentioning the Brabazon property project, as upong further digging only i find out that Brabazon property project is owned by ytl development which is subsidiary of YTLP, none of the sell side analyst mentioned this or take their project into account in their valuation of projection
Either way, as it stands, market values ytlp at just under 10x laggin earnings, which is ady a discount from its historical high of 12x earnings, assuming static earnings (which is highly unlikely), its trading at a big discount with all the long term catalyst incoming, risk lies in execution by management, but they have shown to have a good track record so far

@dragon328 YTLC turn around was a surprise, 37m nett profit this QR, now its just if they can sustain the profits cos YTLC is the laggard with the largest nett loss at 223m for FY24, but any comment on ytlc potentially being the only telco left in DNB as the other telcos move on the 2nd 5g network ? cos AFAIK the model for DNB is the capex is shared among telcos, now YTLC has to bear the cost alone

The ones that dispose have been holding for >20 years since 2003, and the fact that they dispose so many shares but price didnt dump much shows buying interest is still strong, insider selling not always bad, need to knw why they sell, too many people only focus on share price, i focus on valuation, fundementals, catalyst and management

i wonder do people here even knw what SMRT business model, what do they do ? or mostly speculators

Okay QR. not bad not great either, if purely look at profits (which is what most retailers do) its dissapointing, but if u dig deeper, the 9MFY24 ocf is ady 30m vs fy2023 ocf 20m, fcf also 9mfy24 7.4m vs fy23 5.2m. Remember creador wouldnt have invested in the counter if it wasnt good

dompeilee bro look nobody cares about how good/bad you are, so theres no need to brag abt your success/achievements, from the sound of it, u did well, good for you, but theres no need to rub in others face when youre right or kicking people when they are down, or even calling ppl names just cos u dun agree with them. Its better to just agree to disagree or have a more civil discussion, even with all your exp, looks like you never learn to stay humble and not be arrogant, which is a dangerous slope that can lead of overconfidence and ruin, and ppl dun respect ppl who are arrogant

when a stock goes down, it makes me go back and redo all my research, which ends up strengthening my conviction and gives me confidence to average down, if i buy and it goes up then i might not have look deeper into the company cos i thought i was right untill its too late

we get it dompeilee u manage to time the market, good job, clap clap, here's your cookie, now let see if u can consistently time the market over 30 years, oh wait u dun have >30 years left, the rest of us younger ppl have longer time horizon, short term price movements dun really matter as long as fundementals intact, I'd rather focus more of my time earning money to add to my portfolio than staring at the screen everyday trying to time market. And theres no need to feel too excited when you're right or feel too down when you're wrong, all these emotional high and lows not good for your aging heart

and by paring down debt with FCF, the finance cost slowly coming down q1 5.3m > q2 4.9m > q3 4.3m

market didnt like the QR but if u look their Q3 always the weakest quarter, and if look at OCF and FCF its going up, and managemen is paring down long term debt very aggresively q1 27mil> q2 61 mil and q3 105mil

You can never buy at lowest price, sell at highest price, dun bother trying to time the market, stocks with good fundementals if dump its basically on sale, the only qs is how long will it take market to realise its true value, but for small fish like me, longer time means more time to accumulate

1. milk powder prices arent really 'up', if u look at 5 year average, it usually howers ard 3-3.5k, the highest was abv 3.5 up to 4.7k, to predict milk powder prices, look at china, cos they 1 of the largest consumers, but now they arent doing very well
2. im not sure about the percentage of internal produced vs imported, but the imported ones from AUS is also owned by them, so i consider it s both internally produced
3. why own a cow ? cos u get better cost control and not affected by commodity prices, versus buying raw milk powder, and it just plain taste better versus the ones made from milk powder, so much so that F&N and FGV are going up stream, surely they arent doing that if the cons outweigh the pros

At this valuation, the company needs to prove its able to grow at a double digit CAGR in order to justify it, if they cant the share price will fall off a cliff and they might not deserve such a high valuation

Which is why I avoid politically linked stocks or companies that rely on gov contracts to be profitable, even if it's flying or great business, cos 1 bad announcement and the share will dump

nestle isnt a bad stock or company, its a good stock but okay company, there isnt really much growth in nestle, and the CEO is a finance guy, finance guys usually dun expand the business more than they control cost. Theres also the public sentiment towards nestle and boikot etc, farm fresh has more growth potential but it comes with higher valuation, whether its too exp or fairly priced, u make the decision yourself

thats why need shareholder approveal ? cos exceeded dividend payout policy

most counters went down today, this 1 of the few that went up

i think FFB showed its resilience in these 2 days when 50% of counters are in the red

qs, how does bank issue call warrant to bet against a stock ? and how does it play out? as for me i dun like property and constructions stocks, too project relaint, no MOAT, big capex, hard to predict profitibility as too many factors like work delays or rise in material cost, its almost similar to Oil and gas but at least i can watch oil prices to give me an indication

@multiever, thanks, i didnt knw that nestle didnt wan to get listed, but im sure those investing in it are very grateful

When i say FFB become like nestle, what i mean is in terms of MOAT, nestle is so resillient and it has a very strong brand that they also have pricing power

1. Big NOSH = low liquidity = stable share price, i totally agree, but with higher NOSH, and higher liquidity, it actually benefits retailers like myself as i can take advantage of shareprice weakness to accumulate, and no longer need to pay 12k plus for 100 lots of nestle shares, and i would say the shareprice is more efficient if its more liquid as theres more volume which helps the share price reflects itrs true value, whereas if its illiquid, few big shots can easily pump the share price, out of reach of retailers
2.in this context, what u perceived to be strengths ie 'controlled by foreign mother company', might turn out to be problemetic down the road, esp with all the boycott going on in msia, FFB benefits as 100% msian owned company, and rainforrect capital and farm choice food is both owned by mr Loi Tuan ee and his family, so skin in game, his interest are aligned with shareholders

Value is subjective, whats exp to you is fairly price to others, none of us can predict the future, but IF FFB becomes Msian nestle 10 years later, does it matter what price u bought at today ? but again its is a big IF

As for the debt, the nature of fresh milk business is capex intensive, what more upstream F&B thats expanding and acquiring subsidiaries, either management raise money from debt or private placement, i think as shareholder we prefer the former over the latter, but if u look at latest QR, they are shifting the debt to long term ie non current, and into sukuk specifically, which i speculate that managements thinks it is more advantagous, but management did say no plans to raise any more debt barring unforseen circumstances. Now just need to wait and see if they can deliver

I also have value investing mindset, but i tweak it to suit my own style, remember warren buffet started with fair companies at a cheap price but after meeting charlie munger (RIP King), he switched to investing in wonderful companies at a fair price. Whether u are overpaying it depends on ur own valuation calculation, and always do a forward PE calculation then add a margin of safety, current PE is based on past results, thing is almost all great companies arent cheap, most arent even fairly priced. In the stock market, u have to be able to think independently, to filter out all the noise and naysayers, make ur own decision based on ur analysis and have conviction in it. Thats the whole point of stock picking, is to outperform the market returns, but if u follow what market does, how to expect above market returns ?

if a stock that has good fundementals suddenly price drop without bad news, its a good buy no matter the price, u need to get rid of the mentality of wanting to buy at lowest price and sell at highest price, its impossible, also get rid of the mentality of wanting to buy at a fixed price ie 50 sen or RM 1, cos thats what everyone is thinking and you'll see price correction or rebound at whole prices ie 1.5, 2.5 etc, its all human psychology, it plays a big part in stock market. Personally i dun try to catch it at the bottom, i wait for it to rebound upwards before buying, i bought at 1.04 which is pretty good consider i had to dump maybank shares at market price to buy it, and u go in in batches, just in case the rebound is a dead cat bounce, ie if it falls further after going up, u still got bullets to accumulate

their moat for fresh milk business is high barrier of entry and cost advantages, upstream fresh milk business is no easy manner, the cows get sick, u need feed stock, if price increase, it eats ur margin, u need good land for farms etc, based on interview with Mr Looi, the impression i got was the early days of raising cows were a nightmare, hence i dun think its so easy for FGV and F&N to just go upstream and expect success overnight, even if they got money to burn. unlike gloves, its not so easy to just jump into the business. 1 of the issues the MD pointed out was the lack of vetenarians, u need a team of smart and dedicated vetenarians to take care of ur cows, and msia is lacking such talent, so i dun expect FFB moat in upstream to get eroded so easilty anytime soon

Yes ctos and IHH both have high PE cos funds are propping up the price but ask urself if any of these companies have growth potential? Compared to say farm fresh, but it's not that easy cos PE ratio is just a number and it's like comparing apples to oranges, it's better to look at it's peers, but I prefer to use earnings and ocf yield over PE ratio

FFB is expensive, laggin PE ratio of over 60 but its not just its exp, move on, more important question is does it justify the expensive valuation?
MULTIEVER is right, fundemental analysis is important, but remember current PE ratio is based on past fundementals, when u buy a stock, ur profit is in the future earnings of the company, past performance is important but it doesnt always corelate to future performance, if u consider farm fresh earnings growth from CPG, thanks to both inside scoop and sim wah, its forward PE is ard 40-45 for FY2024-25, based on current market cap, its earnings yield is 1.85% and ocf yield is ard 4%, which isnt very high consider FD can give u 4%, but i think FFB forward PE of 40-45 is justified, for a few reasons
1. it has a strong brand - its the market leader in chilled fresh milk category and its 100% owned by msian, unlike DLADY and F&N, if theres another boycott of foreign brands, FFB might stand to benefit from it
2. pricing advantage - FFB has better pricing for its chilled category, and with good margin to boot, so they'll win a price war, this is due to them invested in upstream, so much so that F&N is going up stream. They claim they can do 10k L per milk cycle, but FFB MD say they themselves cant even manage 3k L per milk cycle, so i dunno how they can achieve it, and also FFB has access to top holstein genebank, and their hybrid friesian sahiwal cow is both heat resistant and still can produce a lot of milk. As for DLADY, i suspect the recent price rally is due to milk powder price coming down hence thier profits increasing, but if china economy ever recovers, expect milk powder price to go up again, which will hurt DLADY more than FFB.
3. diversification of revenue stream - they are venturing into CPG, starting with ice cream, they'll have 3 categories, <RM6 which will be branded as simwah potong ice cream, RM 6-12 which will be branded farm fresh and >RM 12 which will carry be inside scoop brand, expect the products to hit stores in june as they start production, CPG ice cream is dominated by 2 brands, nestle and walls by unilever, both of which FFB will look to steal market share from, which is good news consider its a local brand, they are also looking into butter but more interesting is they are entering the children milk powder category which is a cash cow business, and i personally do believe as a medical doctor, Mr Looi's view on infant milk powder that it shouldnt have too many added things that we cant pronounce, and i can see children obesity rates are increasing, even those on formula milk

At the end of the day, valuation is subjective, whats cheap or reasonable to you, is exp to others, but do note, recently KWAP emerged as substantial shareholder, maybe they knw something we dont ? or a sign of whats to come?

MKH and johor plantation both have over a billion ringgit in debt while this company is nett cash, i dunno why the price havent move yet

looking at fund flow, someone is disposing a lot of shares, not sure if major shareholder again, but so far no news abt anything, so likely its profit taking

Share price likely bearish in short term, but prospects still good and transer to main market is progressing well, they are nett cash position and little debt

Late QR? hopefully a surprise good result, the ceo is optimistic about the company, but as they have foreign cilents, profits made in FX should increase as MYR is depreciating

I rarely comment, but have to give thanks for calvin for posting abt jtiasa on inno forum last year, caught my attention and i did my own research and bought last year, up 72% as of closing price today, this stock with YTLP (up 130%) gave my portfolio ard 18% return in 11 months, ps i novice investor, only started since last year april but grateful for projected ard 20% return in 1st year

Guess opening price tmr? I'll go first 1.25

Why QR not out yet, hope its within or above expectation if not the share price gonna plunge

last minute dump by institution

The cash reserve is going down, also notice after flipping back all 4 qr for 2023 that they are net - ve OCF this year, last year was +ve ocf, might Wana proceed with caution

It used to be 2nd smallest, but since affin bank in the news, esp with sarawak acquisition, the share price has rallied, when i started investing in bursa last year, i wanted exposure to banking sector, so i chose 1 big bank and 1 small bank, for big bank i chose public as it is a safe option with very good ROE but valuation is higher but still reasonable, for small bank, it was between affin and ABMB, for me ABMB is the obvious choice, cos AFFIN prev majority shareholder is LTAT, they have 4 main ventures, AFFIN, BPLANT, PHARMA and BHIC, the latter 2 is PN17, 1 needed bailout from gov, the other has monopoly on medicine supply to KKM but still cant be profitable #onlyinmsia, 1 ady sold to LTAT after some issues with KLK, so LTAT dont have the best track record, ABMB undemanding valuation, good dividend yield of ~6%, focus on future SME and green financing, and decent management was the choice for me. The thing about MY banks is they are very safe, therefore cant expect too much growth, but still decent returns, i believe once the hype with affin is over, funds might turn their attention to ABMB, provided they can show good results

sometimes market not logical as BA is a FPSO provider and mainly earns from charter rates which is negotiated and usually quite stable, oil prices shouldnt really affect BA profitability esp short term, hibiscus is more tied to oil price than FPSO like BA or yinson

Higher crude oil prices might be good for this stock but its bad for inflation which central banks have been trying to bring down by raising interest rates, as well as bad for malaysia, cos of subsidised petrol, so higher crude oil prices might lead to inflation increasing which means interest rate staying higher for longer, hope the red sea incident gets resolved, either way investing in O&G is a good hedge against inflation