Soon will fall to below 50 sen

PNB could sell more TENAGA Shares to pay IMDB the RM17 billons Force-the-Throat Price.
Meaning.... Meaning there will be heavy selling.... "IMAGINE " PANIC SELLING !!!

Due to very old machine..1MDB power generation are very inefficient.... High Maintanance and Operational Costs. .. All that will remain.... contaminated Land and Scrap Metals.

5
1MDB POWER ASSETs and PPAs are near the expiring date ....the 21 years PPAs

Until All 1MDB Power Generation Aaset are cleared... TENAGA will remain YOYO..... will fall as low as RM9.00

will go in at 90 sen.

Tenaga has run-out of stream..... until new tariff is introduced.

Earnings per share drop to 30.31 sen.

Next Quarter Report will be worst.... in 3 months. I hold no Mas Share. ... on my radar screen...quite tempting!

.
Sales have Dropped, even with operational costs reduced.... profit will still drop.

Any comment?

I trust public bank valuation. Maybank valuation is too optimistic.

Public Bank Analysis is more accurate.

.
My Analysis of TENAGA for the next 18 months:-

1. There will no Tariff Revision.
2. Pass through Cost will be Approved - will add to about 2 %
3. No Revision of Gas Subsidy
4. GTS Implementation will add 6% to all monthly bill.

So Indirectly, BN Govt should be getting 6% Tariff Increase.

.
sop

You are right... absolutely correct. Since I live in Sabah...Iand I like to see with my own 2 eyes and hear from staff and management.... by visiting them.

Thanks

Hello Ir. Koon,

I live in Sabah. I am interested in Sabah Oil Plantation Stocks.
Do you have any recommendation?

thanks

Thursday, 15 May 2014

3:02PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (1,345,000 Shares Acquired)

3:01PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (969,600 Shares Acquired)

Wednesday, 14 May 2014

4:41PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (2,863,300 Shares Acquired)

4:39PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (1,136,700 Shares Acquired)

Friday, 9 May 2014

4:00PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (1,780,000 Shares Acquired)

3:59PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (744,400 Shares Acquired)
3:59PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (3,000,000 Shares Acquired)

Wednesday, 7 May 2014

4:35PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (1,700,000 Shares Acquired)
4:33PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (2,200,000 Shares Acquired)
4:32PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (12,450,000 Shares Acquired)
4:32PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (3,905,400 Shares Transacted)
4:31PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (6,120,800 Shares Transacted)

Friday, 2 May 2014

4:44PM TENAGA - NOTICE OF BOOK CLOSURE
4:11PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (5,330,100 Shares Transacted)
4:11PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (2,031,700 Shares Acquired)
4:11PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (1,566,300 Shares Acquired)

Wednesday, 30 Apr 2014


4:01PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (1,500,000 Shares Acquired)

Tuesday, 29 Apr 2014

5:14PM Interim Single-Tier Dividend 10.0 Sen

Monday, 28 Apr 2014

5:19PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (1,941,100 Shares Acquired)
5:08PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (3,395,300 Shares Transacted)
5:02PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (2,992,600 Shares Acquired)
5:02PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (2,000,000 Shares Acquired)

Thursday, 24 Apr 2014

5:42PM OTHERS
5:23PM 1H net profit 3.367 billion (increased 25.79%)
5:09PM Appointment of Ahmad Farouk Bin Mohamed As Alternate Director
5:09PM Resignation of Suria binti Ab Rahman As Alternate Director
5:02PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (2,843,800 Shares Acquired)
5:02PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (2,000,000 Shares Acquired)

4:59PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (1,856,600 Shares Acquired)
4:59PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (933,000 Shares Acquired)

Monday, 21 Apr 2014

5:21PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (825,000 Shares Acquired)
5:21PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (4,000,000 Shares Acquired)
5:21PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (2,587,500 Shares Acquired)
5:20PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (1,593,000 Shares Acquired)
5:20PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (2,587,500 Shares Acquired)

Friday, 18 Apr 2014

4:05PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (1,052,000 Shares Acquired)

4:03PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (1,244,900 Shares Transacted)
4:01PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (3,321,300 Shares Acquired)

Tuesday, 15 Apr 2014

3:44PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (7,618,700 Shares Transacted)
3:44PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (2,460,000 Shares Acquired)
3:44PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (3,600,000 Shares Acquired)

.
Alexofb2b

Not like any tariff increase soon.... more so with the impeding GST introduction that will the pocket of lower income groups. Tariff may increase at the start of year 2016.

Looking at the history of Tenaga Price.....will start dropping 6 months after any good news... remain about book value (currently at 660 sens) ntil some news on like tariff increase.

For 2013/2014 FY , Tenaga will have very little improvement even with recent tariff increase..... the main reasons are "Long period of drought" ....Tenaga have to burn more distillate and gas.

.
.
WST .... drop from "BUY" to "OVERWEIGHT"..... time to cash out.

Tenaga will remain stagnant .... until another round of Tariff Increase.

PLease Comment

.
LUCAS .. any written info that we could digest?

.

Analyst Ratings
http://quotes.wsj.com/MY/XKLS/TENAGA/research-ratings

.
Lcchong Fair value:
– Absolute EY%: Buy below 10.61, sell above 13.97 (MOS: 14.52%).

My Fair value is slightly lower 9.30 to 10.28 and sell at 11.88.

please feel to comment.

Today closed at 11.84..... any reasons? Are PNB & EPF are in their usual practices and start buying when price drop to 11.30X?


.
Tenaga Install generation Capacity = 21,749 MW
Generation from Hydro Stations = 1911 MW

The prolong Drought is costing Tenaga = (1911 x 1000) x 16 sen per hour
= RM 305,760 per hour (2.678 billions/year). Assuming 20% capacity still running, losses is about RM2.1424 billions per year (per quarter = 536 millions)

Hydro generation cost is about 3 sen/kWH

.

morivae .... some evedences


Thursday, 24 Apr 2014
r
5:02PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (2,843,800 Shares Acquired)
5:02PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (2,000,000 Shares Acquired)

4:59PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (1,856,600 Shares Acquired)
4:59PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (933,000 Shares Acquired)

Monday, 21 Apr 2014

5:21PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (825,000 Shares Acquired)
5:21PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (4,000,000 Shares Acquired)
5:21PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (2,587,500 Shares Acquired)
5:20PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (1,593,000 Shares Acquired)
5:20PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (2,587,500 Shares Acquired)

Friday, 18 Apr 2014

4:05PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (1,052,000 Shares Acquired)

4:03PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (1,244,900 Shares Transacted)
4:01PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (3,321,300 Shares Acquired)

Tuesday, 15 Apr 2014

3:44PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (7,618,700 Shares Transacted)
3:44PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (2,460,000 Shares Acquired)
3:44PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (3,600,000 Shares Acquired)
3:44PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (3,360,000 Shares Acquired)

Monday, 14 Apr 2014

5:31PM OTHERS

Friday, 11 Apr 2014

4:45PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (9,250,000 Shares Acquired)
4:44PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (9,300,000 Shares Transacted)
4:44PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (6,379,000 Shares Acquired)

Wednesday, 9 Apr 2014

4:17PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (7,389,600 Shares Transacted)
4:17PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (1,977,000 Shares Acquired)
4:16PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (9,232,000 Shares Acquired)
4:15PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (2,500,000 Shares Acquired)

Monday, 7 Apr 2014

5:03PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (1,500,000 Shares Acquired)
5:03PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (1,500,000 Shares Acquired)
5:03PM AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD - SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA (2,000,000
4:50PM EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (515,900 Shares Acquired)

.
Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB)'s pre-tax profit for the second quarter ended Feb 28, 2014 declined to RM1.233 billion from RM1.605 billion reported in the same period last year.

Read more: TNB's pre-tax profit in Q2 eases to RM1.23bil - Latest - New Straits Times http://www.nst.com.my/business/latest/tnb-s-pre-tax-profit-in-q2-eases-to-rm1-23bil-1.577919#ixzz2zq9nijog' target='_blank'>http://www.nst.com.my/business/latest/tnb-s-pre-tax-profit-in-q2-eases-to-rm1-23bil-1.577919#ixzz2zq9nijog


http://www.nst.com.my/business/latest/tnb-s-pre-tax-profit-in-q2-eases-to-rm1-23bil-1.577919

.
No dividend in Q2 (also non in Q1)....will only be paid in Q3 & Q4 !!! any comment

.
I have factored my calc:-

I) Gas cost per kWh will increase by 50% - RM41/mmBtu
II) Cost/kWH is 21 sen/kWh for FY14.

My estimate EPS is 16 sen - 19 sen range. please comment !

http://quotes.wsj.com/MY/XKLS/5347/research-ratings

Analysts buy rating drop to 15 from 17.

Ring

Bankruptcy mean negative equity.....nothing left fro share holders.

Privatization ..... only if equity is positive?

Very few buyers....heavy sellers . My estimate EPS is 19 sen!!!

""Analyst stil bullish on tenaga.. All tp above rm12"""

""Analyst" are the opposite ... Bullish when they intend to sell and Bear when they want to buy.

.
The Followings have depressed Tenaga Earning:-

1. Ringgit Depreciation - 9%
i) Foreign Loans ii) Coal Imports cost more

2. Gas Fuel ...usage upper limit...Tenaga has to pay market price.

Operation wise... Tenaga efficiency have reach the upper limit.

Unless "Pass through cost" is approved, I can't see any improvement in Tenaga Bottom line.

After 2nd Quarter Financial Report Tenaga will most likely drop to RM10.30 - RM11.10

.
Bro. Alexofb2b - you are right
however, PNB & EPF need an IRR of at least 12% to cover cost & Dividend payment to contributors.

Next... After PNB & EPF absorbed all the 21% owned by foreigners...... how and who will be buyers when PNB & EPF start selling. For a records.... Tenaga dividends is chicken feeds... were mere 3% per annum....hardly sufficient 9% dividend to ASB and 6.x% to EPF contributors.

Please feel free to comment.

Thanks

.

EPF & PNB are the main Players !
They manipulate the Price..... but foreigners hold 21%..... when they unload..... everyone will suffer.

.

Buy by AMMB - I don't trust their Valuation... behaving as if they being paid to do "favorable" estimates??

Public Bank is more reliable.

World Market dropped yesterday.

http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/americas/

As for Tenaga Share.... Foreign Fund start moving into more stable markets and high profile stocks..... Yesterday EPF & PNB were the buyers and Foreign Funds were the sellers.

Very Uncertain Period....high risks...

HISTORICAL CHART

http://quotes.wsj.com/MY/XKLS/5347/interactive-chart

WALL STREET JOURAL

Buy Recommendation drop from 20 to 16, hold 3, and SELL 1.

http://quotes.wsj.com/MY/XKLS/5347/research-ratings

Tenaga Business Model:

Energy Procurement -

1. Own Power Plants;

- More Efficient than IPPs... lower sen/kWH (reasons: i) Lower Construction and machinery Costs)

2. IPPs Power Plant (until recently, to justify high Energy Purchase agreement with Tenaga ....costs of power plants were artificially raised to the roof...someone get paid in Swiss/HK bank accounts!)

- Tenaga Pay more sen/kWH than own power Plants
- i) Pays Energy Cost (kWH produced and any increase in fuel costs)
ii) Pays Capacity - IPPs have over 30% reserved margins.

3. Energy Exchange.
- Should have energy exchange .... like those in Europe, N Zealand, etc

Bro Alex Yong,

How could a 0.9 sen per kWH raised Tenaga to TP RM13.00? By the way I have worked for TNB ....an Engineer with Msc (Fin).

Even Tenga mentioned the the recently Tariff increase is neutral to their earning....tenaga is just collecting agent for Govt. fuel subsidy reduction.

The proposed Fuel Pass Through cost.. yet to approved... will steady Tenaga earning and periodical Tariff increase plus increase in operation efficiency.

Operation Fuel mix... mainly Gas and Coal..... Tenaga is paying 16.2 sen/kWH for Gas IPP and Coal IPP 25.xx sen/kWH.

Now Tenaga has been instructed to stop building Gas Turbine Power stations (with Combine Cycle-an extra 30% energy from the existing Hot Gas Flume to run parallel gen. sets).

To lessen the burden of Petronas in subsidizing Tenaga/IPPs only Coal Fired power stations shall be built with immediate effect (paying at 25.xx sen/kWH. This itself is eating into Tenaga earning .... Revenue unchanged but with higher inputs ..i.e power purchased from Coal /Tenaga/IPP... eg the yet to be built 1MDB Coal Fired IPPs.

Morgan Stanley is absolutely right ! Tenaga Earning will increase :- 1) Tariff increase, 2) Operation efficiency.

For 0.9 sen increase/kWH in Tariff will only contribute to about RM 130 million per year... shall be neutral to Tenaga earning.

Current Book Value is RM6.23 / share. At RM11.30 is 75% premium to book value.
04/04/2014 13:27

Morgan Stanley is absolutely right ! Tenaga Earing will increase :- 1) Tariff increase, 2) Operation efficiency.

For 0.9 sen increase/kWH in Tariff will only contribute to about RM 130 million per year... shall be neutral to Tenaga earning.

Current Book Value is RM6.23 / share. At RM11.30 is 75% perium to book value.

Closing Price RM11.74. What happening !!!!!! Glad I sold off all 60000 shares in Feb. 2014

Author: Tan KW - This man is right. I am 56 years old. The tale-tale signs is everywhere....Overpriced assets... more than double their book values! Low Interest rate.... low wages but high household debts. It will happen within the next 15 months. I am ready to gallop under value blue chips.

Privatization: with RM8.0 billions debts. it's cheaper to start a new airline. Mas is negative equity!

But be warned..... China may "stop" buying our CPO.

Please comment:-

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/282044-power-regulatory-reform-to-boost-tnbs-earnings.html

The recent Tariff increase will be neutral to Tenaga Earning. Tenega will only receive 0.9 sen increase in earning for every kWH. The rest of the tariff increase willbe taken by the Fed Govt. for Gas subsidy reduction. The next Quarter Report will not show much improvement in earning.... purposely "depressed" to quench public anger. There will be marked improvement on 4t Quarter earning.... to reported in Nov 2014 (Tenaga 4th Quarter ends on 31 Aug)

Foreign Funds are selling? Local Funds (GLCs) are picking up.

Tenaga is overpriced!

Just Loss a 777 Plane is USD261 millions. Law suit will come around USD 2 billions.