still working ? all this while i thought kcchongnz has done so well that he retires early to enjoy good life in NZ ?

never mind......



donfollowblindly I thought you are working in New Zealand. Why you can answer immediately?
03/03/2015 09:13

Don't waste your time on black schole

The biggest issue is how to determine volatility

You use 50% as Insas volatility for illustration purpose. Do you know whether that is the one month volatility ? one year volatility ? Three years volatility ? or five years volatility ?

Even if you can answer the question above, the next question is "which figure to plug in ? one month ? one year ? three year ? or five years' volatility ?"

it is too subjective. The whole valuation exercise is meaningless.

Your sensitivity table is meaningless too. Take Insas share price of 80 sen as example. The table gives a range from RM0.036 to RM0.409. The range is simply too wide and is of no use in real life.

The best way to value warrants is by using conversion premium. I presume you know how to do it.

Relaxed... no need for such lengthy response.. I was just teasing you.

The reasons I like to harass u is because I notice that you are quite harsh to other forum members.

Do we really need to be so rude to others who have a different opinion ?

Can't we be a little bit nice and gentle ?

Oh my god... Pintaras and London Biscuits again....

kcchongnz why are we talking about London Biscuit again %3F%0A%0AI sick of the left over rice...

Same old story

Leftover rice goreng again and served to you. Yummy meh ?

Good morning kcchong (or afternoon, if you are in New Zealand).


First of all, let me clarify that my name is not to imply that you cheat (a bit cocky you are, but I consider u quite a gentleman with proper character. So no issue with that). My name is actually meant to honour a forum member who created portfolio in January but used December price as entry cost.


Back to the topic. I am not actually challenging you on Coastal. Just seeking clarification. I don't think I have been hostile in my query. The only difference from others is that I left out the flattery and pleasantries, and prefer straight talk. Hope that doesn't give you a wrong impression.

Happy with your explanation. Especially the part on "there is no statistical significance that anyone can predict correctly the future....". That was exactly the same conclusion I have after what happened recently to the oil market. It threw every assumptions, valuation, modelling out of the window. I did learn a new lesson from that. Nowadays, I gave more emphasis to diversification as a result.

Last but not least, I hope you are not driving and reading my response through your smart hone at the same time. That is not safe no matter you are looking at the windshield or rearview window

Have a nice afternoon. It is pretty hot over here.

kcchong, what you have shown in the article is coastal's historical performance (which you used as justification for investment). They made RM200 mil net profit. That was during the boom time. With oil now at current depressed level (and expected to stay low due to the new player, shale oil), can coastal repeat the same performance ? Most of its orders are offshore support vessels. Will there still be so much demand going forward ? Will profit margin be depressed to compete with other players for order book ?

Peter Lynch said don't drive by looking at the rearview mirror.

Afre you driving your New Zealand SUV by looking at the rearview mirror ?

anyway, give you a like, just to show that i am trying to give constructive comments..

can write something new ? it is Lonbisc, Pintaras.... AGAIN...

a bit sian already...

This is cheating. It is ok to enter late. But enter on 15 January 2015 and used 31 dec 2014 prices as original cost gave the cheater a massive 15% overnight gain

Cheating is cheating, no matter how you explained it

This really jeopardize the competition. Next year who wants to participate in the competition anymore ?