Posted by donfollowblindly > 2015-03-02 18:13 | Report Abuse

Insas now 86sen can go to RM 1.2? Why the stocks you have always must have high TP? To con us to buy?

Posted by soojinhou > 2015-03-02 18:22 | Report Abuse

Yes of coz, to con u to buy. That's why, don't follow blindly hahahaha

Posted by matakuda > 2015-03-02 18:58 | Report Abuse

donfollowblindly, are you crazy or what? You expect people to recommend stocks with TP lower than the prevailing price?

Posted by fortunecheat > 2015-03-02 20:17 | Report Abuse

Don't waste your time on black schole

The biggest issue is how to determine volatility

You use 50% as Insas volatility for illustration purpose. Do you know whether that is the one month volatility ? one year volatility ? Three years volatility ? or five years volatility ?

Even if you can answer the question above, the next question is "which figure to plug in ? one month ? one year ? three year ? or five years' volatility ?"

it is too subjective. The whole valuation exercise is meaningless.

Your sensitivity table is meaningless too. Take Insas share price of 80 sen as example. The table gives a range from RM0.036 to RM0.409. The range is simply too wide and is of no use in real life.

The best way to value warrants is by using conversion premium. I presume you know how to do it.

Posted by Horsefield > 2015-03-02 22:15 | Report Abuse

Don't follow blindly the donfollowblindly..
Please wide open your eye and heart to learn and read from others instead of comment blindly...

Posted by donfollowblindly > 2015-03-02 22:25 | Report Abuse

Horsefield so have you made money from BIMB-W and Padini as recommended by KC Chong?

Posted by donfollowblindly > 2015-03-02 22:34 | Report Abuse

The purpose of this blog is to ask you to chase Insas W(TP 35sen with exercise price RM1) which will be listed tomorrow. Is it worth 57% premium as calculated? Why so high? Why not trade at discount like Pesona W?

Posted by NOBY > 2015-03-02 22:48 | Report Abuse

dontfollowblindly, you must truly be blind. Nowhere in this write up did I see the author asking you to chase Insas W. No wonder you lost money following others blindly. You must be drawing conclusions with one eye (or both) closed.

I must also say that you have horrible luck since you must have invested all your money in the few loss making stocks KC Chong recommended but none in the ones that were multi-baggers like PTARAS, LATITUD, HOMERIZ etc... You must have the most horrible luck in investing... better just put all your money in FD with this kind of luck ...cause whichever sifu you follow also will end up picking those loss making ones... hahaha

Posted by Horsefield > 2015-03-02 22:54 | Report Abuse

I believe if you read, learn and understand what KCChongnz has posted so far including his 100 blogs/articles and 4200++ constructive comments in i3, you can be very good investor now. Please open your heart to read and understand what he wrote and tried to convey. I believe you will know the correct path of investing and investing style suit you most.

Yes, I make some losses from Padini and BIMB-WA AT THE MOMENT. But investing is long run practice, say 3 to 5 years, not in months. I believe I will regain the losses in long term. Despite these losses, I actually earned substantially from his pick Pintaras (RM 2.90), KSL (RM 2.20 before split), Latitud (RM 3.05), Homeritz (RM 0.81), Scientx (RM 5.14), MFCB (RM 2.20) and many others.

How about you?

So please be positive and remove all your "50 Shade of Grey" in your heart.

Posted by Probability > 2015-03-02 23:32 | Report Abuse

This is how write up should be...and logical comments ..thanks to Noby and horsefield. 4200 over constructive comments...pheww...

Posted by donfollowblindly > 2015-03-03 01:55 | Report Abuse

Does KC Chong indicate latest Insas QR which is actually down? Why Insas already stop going up recently? Some of 4200 comments KC Chong is actually condemning especially stocks he doesn't own. If Insas actually is good, there is no need for this of type fund-raising at all.

Posted by Probability > 2015-03-03 02:07 | Report Abuse

donfollow...you seem to have some genuine reason to disbelief KC's opinion. It could be that he wants people to buy...even if its for his own benefit...at least he is giving some supportive facts.

If we dont even have people like him in this forum.... then what shall we listen? People give supporting reasons..with musics? or like this...BUY!! BUY!!! BUY!!!!..mesti naik punya...ada viagra!!

whatever we do...at least must have some basis la....if not...we are nothing...zero..

Posted by Probability > 2015-03-03 02:10 | Report Abuse

Best is if you can find some technical fault in his argument...like you said earlier..volatility la...like that. Then challenge him...then forum will be fun...and all can learn. But if we are lazy to think...at least should not comment bad laa..

Posted by donfollowblindly > 2015-03-03 02:10 | Report Abuse

Horsefield you also admit that you lose money from Padini and BIMB-W that's why I said don't follow him blindly.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-03-03 07:19 | Report Abuse

Posted by fortunecheat > Mar 2, 2015 08:17 PM | Report Abuse

Don't waste your time on black schole

GOOD COMMENTS. I DO AGREE WITH YOU TO CERTAIN EXTENT AS I ALSO DON'T DEPEND ON IT TOO MUCH. BUT THAT IS ONLY THE FIRST LEVEL THINKING.

The biggest issue is how to determine volatility

You use 50% as Insas volatility for illustration purpose. Do you know whether that is the one month volatility ? one year volatility ? Three years volatility ? or five years volatility ?

DIDN'T I EXPLAINED TO YOU HOW I DID IT MYSELF IN THE ARTICLE? TELL US HOW YOU DO IT THEN.

Even if you can answer the question above, the next question is "which figure to plug in ? one month ? one year ? three year ? or five years' volatility ?"

SAME ANSWER AS ABOVE

it is too subjective. The whole valuation exercise is meaningless.

TO A CERTAIN EXTEND, YOU HAVE A POINT

Your sensitivity table is meaningless too. Take Insas share price of 80 sen as example. The table gives a range from RM0.036 to RM0.409. The range is simply too wide and is of no use in real life.

THE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS SHOWS WHAT THEORETICAL PRICES WILL THE WARRANT BE WITH DIFFERENT PRICES OF INSAS WITH THAT CONSTANT VOLATILITY IN THE NEAR SHORT TERM. JUST AN IDEA OF RELATIVE PRICES.

The best way to value warrants is by using conversion premium. I presume you know how to do it.

READ MY PREVIOUS POSTS ON PREMIUMS, GEARING FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT ETC USING WARRANTS. OH I JUST DON'T WANT TO AGONIZE YOU AGAIN WITH "LEFT OVER RICE".

BY THE WAY, PLEASE ENLIGHTEN US HOW YOU USE CONVERSION PREMIUM TO VALUE WARRANTS.


Posted by fortunecheat > Feb 24, 2015 08:22 PM | Report Abuse

Same old story

Leftover rice goreng again and served to you. Yummy meh ?

Posted by donfollowblindly > 2015-03-03 09:00 | Report Abuse

A lot of limit up purchase withdraw for WB. Why?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-03-03 09:04 | Report Abuse

Posted by donfollowblindly > Mar 3, 2015 01:55 AM | Report Abuse
Does KC Chong indicate latest Insas QR which is actually down? Why Insas already stop going up recently? Some of 4200 comments KC Chong is actually condemning especially stocks he doesn't own. If Insas actually is good, there is no need for this of type fund-raising at all.

First you must understand what the investment thesis is for Insas. You may have missed the forest by focusing on the trees.

If those who were misled by those lemons in the market and took heeds on my “condemning” remarks on them, they would have saved a lot of money not losing in speculating on those lemons. Wouldn’t they? My blunt remarks and articles on those lemons, for your information is almost 100% spot on. I think these type of “condemning” remarks and articles are more useful for small time retail investors than all the buy calls.

Too bad you didn’t take heeds on my comments on lemons and lost a lot of money. For your information, the prices of those lemons dropped like nobody’s business is not because I “condemn” them, but because of their poor fundamentals.

Posted by donfollowblindly > 2015-03-03 09:13 | Report Abuse

I thought you are working in New Zealand. Why you can answer immediately?

Posted by NOBY > 2015-03-03 09:40 | Report Abuse

Posted by donfollowblindly > Mar 3, 2015 09:13 AM | Report Abuse

I thought you are working in New Zealand. Why you can answer immediately?

KC, You got a new stalker... haha,... not only diligently harassing you around in your blogs.. even want to know your whereabouts...

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-03-03 10:20 | Report Abuse

Horsefield,

Thanks for your reminder below. Just checked what I first wrote about those stocks you mentioned. Just a little walk down memory lane here.
I started harping on Pintaras more than years ago when its price was less RM2.00 before 1:1 bonus. I first wrote about Latitude in i3investor about one and a half years ago when it was RM1.65.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_challenge_2013_2h/40360.jsp

Notice I don’t talk about it now with the present price though I still have a little for memory purpose.

Homeritz was alerted by one of your course mates may be two years ago and it was in the above article when it was trading at 57.5 sen.
MFCB was alerted by another of your course mates, can’t remember who. When I first wrote about its investment thesis in i3ivestor one a half years ago, it was just RM1.70.

KSL, Scientex were written when their share prices as stated by you, and it was not long ago.

So although I don’t recommend anyone to buy shares I wrote about, if they have blindly followed those articles and invested, they shouldn’t be blaming me for anything, and instead would gladly invited me for a meal when I go back to Malaysia. Won’t they?

I did make some wrong judgement though.

In i3 prior to I having a blog there, many forumers asked me all sorts of stocks in my thread such as “Coldeye 5 yardsticks”, “Magic Formula” etc, and I have answered hundreds of those questions. I don’t remember anyone faulted me although I did make some, but few, wrong judgements.

Posted by Kris Wong > 2015-03-03 10:28 | Report Abuse

Mr. KC Chong based on your calculation and details, does this mean that the bond-like Insas-Pa I bought at RM0.80 this morning will give me a return of 6.42% pa if I hold it to maturity based on my simplified calculation ie. 0.935/0.80 multiply by 5.5% =6.42%. Please advise me if my calculation is not correct. TQ

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2015-03-03 12:27 | Report Abuse

The price of Insas is going up and going down, and swinging at a certain level, see the today's graph for yourself, this happens only because someone is unloading the shares and haven't unloaded all the shares yet. The going up is because the shares not all unloaded and the going down is because he is unloading it, and the swinging is because he has to keep it steady at the level. Future upside low. Good news already announced---selling a property in London and investment in a tech stock. Business very fragmented and low market share in all the areas the company is involved in over the years. Keep a lot of cash and stocks investment that the boss play the stock himself when he likes. The company basically belongs to one-man show. If I am you, I don't want own it for a long time. The boss is probably speculative and stock guru, his stock will only do well when the all market is doing very well. He smarts what! Why he wants to push up the shares for you to sell. The only thing that is remarkable about this company is its stockpile of cash and stock investment and the coffee business which I think have potential. But as shareholders...there is nothing for us to be happy about.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-03-03 13:37 | Report Abuse

Posted by Kris Wong > Mar 3, 2015 10:28 AM | Report Abuse

Mr. KC Chong based on your calculation and details, does this mean that the bond-like Insas-Pa I bought at RM0.80 this morning will give me a return of 6.42% pa if I hold it to maturity based on my simplified calculation ie. 0.935/0.80 multiply by 5.5% =6.42%. Please advise me if my calculation is not correct. TQ

Use a financial calculator, or a spreadsheet and put these values:

PV = 0.8
FV = 1.00
PMT = 0.02 for 2 sen dividend every 6 months
N = 10 There are 10 semi-annual payments

You will find that the yield-to-maturity equals to 4.53% per period, or 9.06% for a full year. That is the return you are concern of.

With RPS at 82 sen now, the yield to maturity will be 8.5%. It is still a decent return considering that it has little risk but twice return from FD.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-03-03 16:22 | Report Abuse

ks55, why are you so sure of REITs?

In an economic downturn when property owners can't lent out their properties, where do REITs get their return?

When property prices plunged, can REITs maintain its asset value?

When the share market plunged, can REITs stay at the same prices? i remember Axreit was less than RM1.00 during the US sublime crisis.

REITs are subjected to higher and more risks than fixed income.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-03-03 17:54 | Report Abuse

ks55,

This is what I call a constructive criticism is. Thanks for your comments.

Risk and return is interrelated. I can't fault any of your comments above. We just have different perceptions of risks for Reits and Insas RPS.

For me if I want to invest in property related investment, I prefer some undervalued property stocks and there are some in Bursa. I don't see any Reit is undervalued. May be I never explore them.

Posted by NOBY > 2015-03-03 18:05 | Report Abuse

REITS dividend payments are only as good as their earnings power as the dividends are paid from earnings. Dividends can be cut if earnings go down. If I am given a choice of 8 pct annualized returns from a bond, i will take it as the returns are above average for the level of risk

Posted by fortunecheat > 2015-03-03 18:17 | Report Abuse

still working ? all this while i thought kcchongnz has done so well that he retires early to enjoy good life in NZ ?

never mind......



donfollowblindly I thought you are working in New Zealand. Why you can answer immediately?
03/03/2015 09:13

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-03-03 19:02 | Report Abuse

Posted by fortunecheat > Mar 3, 2015 06:17 PM | Report Abuse

still working ? all this while i thought kcchongnz has done so well that he retires early to enjoy good life in NZ ?

never mind......


For your information, I officially retired as a civil engineer more than 10 years ago. No, I am still not that old.

Whether doing very well is relative as each person's needs and wants are different. Enjoying life is no doubt about it for me. so thanks for your concern.

Warren Buffett is a multi-billionaire. He is still tap dancing to work.

Do you know how one feels with statement below?


Posted by apini > Mar 3, 2015 05:19 PM | Report Abuse

thank you very much Mr kcchong, although I have (not)joined your on-line course ,I still had gained a lot of useful knowledge from your article to evaluate a stock before I make a decision to buy or sell .esp the the magic formula. thank you very much Mr Kcchong.
Good health

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2015-03-03 19:24 | Report Abuse

Mr. Kcchong, you are right about what you say about reits and I agree with you:

"For me if I want to invest in property related investment, I prefer some undervalued property stocks and there are some in Bursa. I don't see any Reit is undervalued. May be I never explore them."

The reits, they mostly pay out everything they earn as dividends, there are no garantee that they will grow in value because of hyper-inflation.

In US, it will become hyper-inflation because of productivity and efficiency when interest rate can not go up fast enough, not because of real-estate, but we are not sure about malaysia---to me the real estate prices in Malaysia right now are hyper-inflation already.

Warren Buffett stresses low-cost index fund, this is because the index fund don't have physical shape (low cost to maintain in times of inflation)and surely increase in value over time because of hyper-inflation and also productivity (money grows)of a country.

It is like buying gold and houses, it has no productivity at all. It has to have productivity or else it has no value what so ever! Not just low cost. If the country is poorer, a lot of gold, also no use, you see, where do they have the money to buy gold from you and the price of gold will not go up because they are poorer (less productive and earn less money).

Posted by donfollowblindly > 2015-03-03 21:54 | Report Abuse

AyamTua, sudah kaya belum ikut KC? Hari ini ada beli Insas PS dan warrant?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-03-04 08:16 | Report Abuse

Posted by donfollowblindly > Mar 3, 2015 09:54 PM | Report Abuse

AyamTua, sudah kaya belum ikut KC? Hari ini ada beli Insas PS dan warrant?



Hooray, it is time to boast again. hard to find this opportunity.

If anyone followed my 10 stock picks put up by Tan KW on 21at January 2013, less than two years ago, he would have made 103.4% now after 26 months against the return of the broad market of 16.6%.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/13147.jsp

If he has bought Prestariang as listed by me then, he made 310%. Or 200% for Pintaras, 170% for Jobstreet, 141.2% for SKP Res.

Even AyamTua's NTPM made 70.2%.

You are very lucky losing your underwear buying Maybank C6, and lose soe in BIMB warrant. You lose not much lah in Padini. Have you forgotten that you also lose money in MRCB warrants. What else? Can't recall any more, just 4 or 5 out of a total about 40 stocks in three portfolios of mine so far.

Your luck is extremely bad, a six sigma event.


Date 21/1/2013 3/3/2015
Stock Name Ref Price Price now Dividend Gain % gain
Kfima 2.02 2.05 0.16 0.190 9.4%
Pintaras 1.56 4.37 0.275 3.085 198%
ECS 1.06 1.15 0.13 0.220 20.8%
Plenitude 1.85 2.38 0.12 0.650 35.1%
Jobstreest 1.20 0.4550 2.787 2.042 170%
Pantech 0.78 0.755 0.13 0.105 13.5%
SKPRes 0.34 0.770 0.05 0.480 141.2%
NTPM 0.47 0.73 0.07 0.330 70.2%
Kimlun 0.93 1.44 0.1 0.610 65.6%
Prestariang 0.605 2.32 0.16 1.875 310%

Average xxx xxx xxx xxx 103.4%
FTSE Mid70 12294 13454 615 1775 14.4%
KLSE 1632 1821 82 271 16.6%

Posted by donfollowblindly > 2015-03-04 08:31 | Report Abuse

Date 21/1/2013 3/3/2015
Stock Name Ref Price Price now Dividend Gain % gain
Kfima 2.02 2.05 0.16 0.190 9.4%
Pintaras 1.56 4.37 0.275 3.085 198%
ECS 1.06 1.15 0.13 0.220 20.8%
Plenitude 1.85 2.38 0.12 0.650 35.1%
Jobstreest 1.20 0.4550 2.787 2.042 170%
Pantech 0.78 0.755 0.13 0.105 13.5%
SKPRes 0.34 0.770 0.05 0.480 141.2%
NTPM 0.47 0.73 0.07 0.330 70.2%
Kimlun 0.93 1.44 0.1 0.610 65.6%
Prestariang 0.605 2.32 0.16 1.875 310%

Average xxx xxx xxx xxx 103.4%
FTSE Mid70 12294 13454 615 1775 14.4%
KLSE 1632 1821 82 271 16.6%

Why only gain stocks shown? What about the losses like Maybank C6, BIMB-W, MRCB-W, Padini, etc. What happen to Insas? Why not shown?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-03-04 09:30 | Report Abuse

Posted by donfollowblindly > Mar 4, 2015 08:31 AM | Report Abuse

Why only gain stocks shown? What about the losses like Maybank C6, BIMB-W, MRCB-W, Padini, etc. What happen to Insas? Why not shown?


Ok ok. We definitely will talk about the return of my the other two portfolios. Now let us talk about Insas first as insisted by you.

Some of my course participants asked me what to do with Insas when it dropped to 79 sen second half of last month. I said it would be better to go through the whole corporate exercise. I bought a lot more(in my standard) for myself and those others whom I manage their investment at average of 82 sen. I even apply for excess shares and I got 20% more of PA and warrant.

Go figure out these numbers if you can.

My return is about 10%, in about one month. I am happy about it. I don't care whether you are happy or not.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-03-04 11:22 | Report Abuse

Posted by donfollowblindly > Mar 4, 2015 08:31 AM | Report Abuse

Why only gain stocks shown? What about the losses like Maybank C6, BIMB-W, MRCB-W, Padini, etc. What happen to Insas? Why not shown?


I showed you my first portfolio with 103.4% gain as opposed to 16.6% of KLSE, and there was not a single loser out of the ten stocks.

Here is my second portfolio of 11 stocks also set up by Tan KW in August 2013,just one and a half year ago. Yes, there are losers, but just 2 out of 11. The average return is 64.4% as opposed to 6.8% of the broad market over the same period. The loss of the loser stocks is small (3% and 18.4%)as compared to the gain of the winners. Homeritz and Datasonic gained 178% and 245% respectively.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/19386.jsp


Sorry, this must have disappointed you again. Don't worry, I will tell you about my third portfolio which you will be very keen to see me publish here.

Btw, instead of me showing those portfolios which were published in i3 all the time, why not show us one of yours also?




New 1/8/2013 4/3/2015 Dividend xxxx xxxx
Pintaras 2.495 4.370 0.225 2.100 84.2%
Kfima 2.060 2.050 0.160 0.150 7.3%
MFCB 1.700 2.610 0.105 1.015 59.7%
Haio 2.670 2.370 0.220 -0.080 -3.0%
Fibon 0.330 0.480 0.0125 0.163 49.2%
CBIP 1.450 2.040 0.100 0.690 47.6%
Tien Wah 2.510 1.900 0.148 -0.462 -18.4%
Homeritz 0.430 1.140 0.058 0.768 178.5%
Willow 0.530 0.770 0.040 0.280 52.8%
Daiman 2.530 2.560 0.120 0.150 5.9%
Datasonic 0.335 1.130 0.025 0.820 244.8%

Average xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx 64.4%
Median xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx 49.2%
KLSE 1773 1820 72.69 119.7 6.8%
Alpha xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx 57.7%

Posted by Kian Leong Lim > 2015-03-04 14:38 | Report Abuse

Insas stock price has been trading between 50 cents to 1 dollar since 30 years ago. I do not know whether the share price is going to repeat this trend or not: trading between 0.50 to 1.00 in the next 30 years. Hard to tell, even though after 30 years, all their businesses are really small in size, even though there are quite a few of them, this is unpredictable for many people including me. If you are holding this stock for long term investment, you may be riding not on a not very fast horse.

Posted by tony89 > 2015-03-04 17:41 | Report Abuse

feel sad to see how people criticise someone who has taught us lots in the forum.