Did we learn something or nothing from Olivia Lum's Saga...???
http://theindependent.sg/the-cautionary-tale-of-hyfluxs-olivia-lums-rags-to-riches-story/

Hahaha...VS no problem for long term investing... consistent n sustainable dividend policy, sometimes has bonus issue of share or warrant, slow n steady price appreciation...n volatility...probably due to volatility of earnings growth cycle in between 3 to 5 years period. The time was right when you invested before CNY...or probably now or never...!!! Overall total debt is well managed n sustainable...for manufacturing its EBITDA is always positive and its total debt is less than 4 times EBITDA...too much debt can bankrupt a company during recession or earnings is negative. Its cash n equivalent is always higher than long term debt. Unforseen circumstances can happen...just like Hyflux...because of projects cancellation, delayed n stalled due to low oil price...plus utilities earnings decline due to government policy. So never borrowed above twice of total shareholders equity, even it's a utility company. GL everyone...!!!

Total Debt above 5 times EBITDA...???
https://www.dealstreetasia.com/stories/hyflux-olivia-lum-130319/

Learning from this episode...!!!
http://theindependent.sg/bloomberg-writer-calls-hyflux-saga-a-tale-of-corporate-ruin-with-34000-victims/

The bull case for China stocks is sticking around | https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/513661

Solid South-East Asia growth seen despite risks | https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/513663

Macro Risks like commodities n raw materials price spikes, exchange rates fluctuations, interest rates plus economic risk like government policy that affect country GDP growth, trade conflicts, recession fear of demand n oversupply, these factors are naturally there for efficient management to tackle. That's why VS has long historical data since 1982...they already survived those boom n bust...N they are still alive n breathing healthily. That's why I don't suggest people buy IPO...unless it's born from its strong mother corporation. Stay invested in company that has long, consistent, n sustainable business model, that has a conservative earnings growth prospects...GL...!!!

Aiyoo...investing in VS...is about the Products... company are selling...if you happen to go shopping with your wife or girlfriend...you will notice many people viewing those products like Dyson vacuum cleaner, bladeless fan purifier, supersonic hairdryer...N these people are of younger generation...below 40 year old... professional...n mind you all races...these are innovative products or niche products. Defensive types of products cycle... recession proof...you don't tell me recession people don't clean their houses or don't use fan or hairdryer...!!! The crucial point is these products really so Innovative that those younger generation love them. Of course guarantee for production lapsed in specific model. Go outside n see, listen, n analyse yourself...before you commit with conviction...at present the price is still reasonable...But you never know how much profit VS is going to generate in 3 year time...who knows... probably with historical data... probably approximately correct...GL everyone...!!!

Storytelling...!!!
http://fortune.com/2017/09/09/james-dyson-vacuum/

Missed rally leads to consolidation | https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/512839

What will cause the next debt crisis? | https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/512845

Weekend reflection...VS...Volatile Slow n Steady Uptrending is always its fundamental characteristics all these years. Those who bought...@<0.80...probably could have 100%...capital return by Jan...2020...N those who want more should...Hold....for at least 2 years from that... Mispriced in Dec 2018...From normal analysis insiders who are running VS...day in n out...are accumulating...at reasonable price...Price is what you buy..Value is what you get...in the longer run...VS will probably benefit substantially with those uncertainty... trade conflict scenarios...So those MNCs...are negotiating with VS...plus other EMS in SEA... Singapore isn't cost effective...others in Philippines, Vietnam, n Malaysia companies will have greater advantage... provided PAKATAN need to stabilise economic fundamental n foreigners will be certain what they need to collaborate n execute their respective business going ahead. Good days ahead...GL...!!!

Huhu...FA whatever rumours already been suppressed...N prospects of good news in waiting... sentiment is positive...TA... Uptrending probably until May.....then consolidating... economic wise overall recession fear is subdued...n business environment stabilising in Malaysia... plus no future interest rates hike...more dovish sentiment...Shirt term treasury yield isn't in uptrend... liquidity flowing more into higher risk assets, equities...Only slight concern is trade conflict...but it will be resolved...but only up to certain degree...more than 80%...on the upside for equities markets... especially in emerging markets....GL everyone...!!!

SC Must take Action...So many Red Chips in SGX also got suspended...all these are corporate sharks...wearing Emperor clothing...Create false cash flow n liquidity...!!!
SC raps China-based CSL, Xingquan and Maxwell for beaching laws | https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/509761

Huawei urges US to drop loser's attitude as carrier business revenue slips | https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/509719

Yellen sees no US recession, says Fed won’t cut rates in 2019 | https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/509741

Hehehe...VS present scenario...90%...the trend is on the...Upside...risk of downside is quite minimal...unless there is an unexpected or unforeseen events worldwide...Any good news...its Price will move upward...Patience...Pot of golds are won on waiting n sitting...where people don't like you...n you aren't famous...N not on excitement...where you are surrounded by friends...some are neutral, some are jealous n some are wicked...n probably some will support you...So where are you anyway... hahaha...GL everyone...have s nice weekend...!!!

Fundamentally Superb...!!!... Uptrending...!!!
Automation helps Top Glove trim foreign labour by 20% | https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/509563

Ha...Valuation isn't 100%...@<0.80...probably net present value...Undervalued... provided you know VS...will have better sales, consistent margin n profit going forward...@0.80~@1.20...Fair Value...PE 16x...above buy less...Put Value... Intangible... probably not above...@20x multiple. Some many variables to consider... interest rates...WACC...etc...!!!

Hahaha...Uptrending...probably for 50 days...of course climbing upstairs...need some rest in between...then consolidating...then new catalyst...to Shangri la...GL everyone...!!!

Ha...well even Sifu Lynch... become so tired n retired after 13 years...in the most successful mutual fund in the world... Magellan... average ROI...29%....at the end of the day... people will still go back n be more practical n humble...the most difficult investing journey... analysing of sustainable business model selling products that everybody like to buy or services that people like to use...in a long, long, run...the oldest business the better. I see few still alive...luckily in Bursa...still living healthily after more than 100 year old... Nestle, Carlsberg, n Heineken...!!!

Ha... Usually I don't give a damn all those noises...dirty my eardrums...need to go up mountain...n clean with spring water...!!!....Go more into VS...micro...its business development, its management team, its products transition at present trade conflict scenarios...Only China subsidiary has problems...I think management is experienced enough to tackle these challenges...going forward. Insiders are substantial shareholders...n they invested substantial amount... including their closed families members. Plus management SBB...these already gave Outsiders peace of mind. I have been reading its financial statements yearly...CEO words always think of shareholders' benefits in the long run. I think the next earnings growth will be exponential...this year will be flat...n year 2021...will be around 20%... follow by average growth. The rest you analyse...GL everyone...!!!

Stocks mark time as US-China trade talks loom | https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/508531

Goldman joins chorus warning against yield curve panic | https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/508297

Hahaha...top investors only look beyond present momentum...such as these...they will take calculated risks...to analyse company products, earnings, debt, corporate governance, past, present, n most important future financial statements...Of course it's like a thesis...you will earn your professor degree...when you succeeded...you don't need 20 punch cards...try doing few that are successful...n doing less that are unsuccessful...still have a long n crowded journey...!!!

Aiyah... people still don't understand...at the end of the day...there are only less than 3%... wonderful companies in Bursa n even in NYSE...even Sifu Lynch...only focus n Invest in less than 3%...out of more than 3,000 in NYSE...!!!

Aiyoo... don't show off with all those cars...I follow Sifu Buffett...still driving my old car... depreciation n amortisation...where got increase in Value...!!!...Unless my wife got tired of me... probably that will be her idea...if not you better prepare to sleep on the sofa... hahaha...!!!

Aiyah...my advice for most people... especially the younger generation...to mix with people better than you...learn their good habit...n slowly you will drift into that good direction n habit. Probably it will give you less popularity...but in the long run n at the end of the day...you will benefit a lot n you can judge things with more confident. The crowd agree n not isn't important...you need to do your homework thoroughly...n invest with conviction. Don't waste time...with your hardwork n invest too little...GL everyone...!!!

Present scenario wise... should thanks President Trump... where suddenly free trade agreement...or the world is flat...become lot of hills...those MNC with their niche products...will look for top EMS in SEA. Since VS is a leader n vertically integrated OEM/ODM...those guys will negotiate with VS. Other smaller players...will probably become sub-contract or if they are fully integrated...can have full contract on certain products. VS earnings growth prospects is superb...I think those who are here...be patient...stay invested...just wait for your pot of Gold... GL...TQ.

Hahaha...VS...90% of its products are consumer...n around 3 years of products cycle...So we forecast practically around 5 years forward earnings growth prospects. To be frank I only look for yearly report... half yearly down 10%... that's not right...how about the next half... probably an increase of around 5~10%...full year EPS. Last year EPS dropped less than 5%. For normal business environment...other than recession...normal EPS decrease of 5~10% is okay...but not more than 2 years. I see there is a very good chance that's earnings will increase more than 20%...fiscal year...2020~2021...n around...@>10%...2022...then probably its products cycle will repeat...but probably they can stabilised earnings in advance...moving forward on new products n contract extensions. Overall revenue increased...its net profit margin must be consistent around...@5%... that is important. GL everyone.

Scenario isn't Now... probably 4th Quarter...2020...!!!
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-yield-curve-inverted-here-are-5-things-investors-need-to-know-2019-03-22

Former Fed chair Yellen says yield curve may signal need to cut rates, not a recession | https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/507473

PAKATAN...V/S... Corporate Sharks...Hope Happening in Bursa...!!!
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/goh-hin-calm-gets-3-years-for-role-in-trading-conspiracy

BTW...I see everyone my Sifu... because I can learn from their strong points n weak points...the crucial points are we learn from our shortcomings n be humble with our own success...always learn from mistakes n try not to make the same mistakes again. Value investing is more on how we can see mistake in stock pricing or mispriced scenario...n it's just approximately correct only... unforeseen circumstances can happen... because overall business environment changes rapidly. Now we are in this supernova century...where we see so many technologies, scientific, n business model changing at full speed. Be prepared any which way you look at this present time...GL... everyone.

Aiyoo...yo...Just look at Dayang...BTW I don't buy that share...they must take profit after 100%...to zero down their cost of capital...n Cannot use margins to buy at higher Price. They want to chase the last dollars...so where is it going now... unforeseen circumstances happening...we cannot blame others for our own greediness n shortcomings. For this type of cyclical business model...PE of...@>11x... probably overvalued...unless they can produce increasing EPS within these 3 years going forward...then probably has higher PE multiple. At present those IBs are reasonable in their analysis. Of course different people have different valuations outlook...so we shall see the next few days...GL... everyone.

BTW... people are born n due to their upbringings... different types of characters n thinking... different experiences n knowledge...some people want more risk... whereas some are risk averse...some want excitement n they don't feel boring...some just have others hobby to do...just invest n analyse its financial statements yearly...n Not quarterly. So it depends more own your own temperament n your experience... whatever it takes...at the end of the day...your capital return must be Okay...then your venture into that Investing strategy. Always be flexible n admit our own shortcomings...nothing is perfectly right...I think all strategies have some flaws n not flawless. Analyse more to maximise our Margin of Safety...n minimise our Margin of Error. TQ.

Relaxation during weekend with family n friend is the best option to be rational. Sometimes we need to listen to younger children asking unreasonable n unrealistic questions...but we must be good listener... Investing in a good business is the same...why people like to buy this product or use this service...ask yourself why...who are our competitors...how is its demand... actually investing is quite easy...you listen...you see...you analyse...who are the people using our products or services... woman, man, children, young or old, etc...just look at Milo enough...when you visit kopitiam...100% customer will call for 'Milo Ice'... nobody will call for 'Olvatine Ice'...there are many products n services out there...so listen... especially what your girlfriend or wife got to say or tell you that she likes...Invest only on products or services that are sustainable, consistent profit margin, EPS, cash flow, dividend, bonus...(40~60% of EPS)...increasing book value... especially its retained earnings, above average 5 yer..Dupont ROE...@12%... decreasing long term debt. Read at least 5 years of financial statements...take notes of what BODs have what it takes to run the business moving forward...plus few insiders are substantial shareholders n running theirs business. GL ..!!!

TOPGLOV's Macro...!!!
Bear Market for Rubber May Last Another Decade on Oversupply | https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/505538

Hahaha...Hero...is saving human life... without asking for anything in return... Since the Cuban missile crisis... American was saved... that's was when commercial airplanes are in serviced... Asian great philosophers... especially Buddhists believers...will make American beliefs sooner or later...then US will treat China differently...after some space station crisis...with the help from China aerospace...space technology...will be so advanced...thanks to Rare Earth...from China... that's why China don't anyhow sell their most precious treasure...Space technology aren't linked to military...all are equalled...!!!

Overall sentiments is mixed...But this article...VS has a good chance to sign new contract manufacturing for MNC...!!!
Trump says tariffs on Chinese goods will stay for ‘substantial period of time’ | https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/505118

Malaysia's Biggest State Fund Sees Strong Revival for Stocks | https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/505124

Hahaha... approximately as what...@unclelimhuat says...the future is very bright...these 6 months until Oct... probably the price is consolidating...unless there are huge whales... institutions or funds bidding higher n higher...Stay invested or Stay tuned...GL...!!!

CEO Gan S.Y. Say it loud n clear Now...!!!
US-based Bissell brings welcome relief to VS Industry | https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/50481

Macro~Micro-Valuation...!!!
https://seekingalpha.com/article/3474186-simple-framework-combine-macro-micro-factors-assess-valuation

Soros Wisdom... hahaha...!!!
https://www.caproasia.com/2015/08/14/10-quotes-from-george-soros/

Well...trade war... economic war...cyber war...whatever is it...US just don't really understand or trust China...these problems will be solved...but not perfectly solved...So many top companies in China aren't public listed...plus lack of transparency....run by state enterprises. These are the strong points in CCCP...you can see how fast the growth...it takes China 30 years...but for others probably more than 100 years...!!! There are many extraordinary kids born in China this century...as I know this century belongs to China...as was the last one belongs to US. Before that it was UK. So within these scenarios...I think some OEM/ODM will benefits companies in SEA...plus others types of industries like furniture, glove, OSAT, ATE...where there are a lot of outsourcing manufacturing of original products or services. So Bursa companies need to be daring to venture into it...plus government need to solve foreign workers levy at reasonable rates. Malaysian need to upgrade their respective skills to undertake all these....GL...!!!

Hahaha...BTW...I would like to be too smart...to predict DJ... probably if it peaks at 29,000~30,000 points...then probably a huge reversal can happen...but before it happens...some happening must be going on...like GDP slow down... interest rates is going up...n bond rates is up...all types of rates is up...or probably crisis in Latin America... or Eastern Europe...or probably huge debts... defaulted...by some countries...some many variables...so difficult to predict... hehehe...!!!

Stock Markets Crash...can wipe out around 50~70% of our capital...like in 2008/2009...so how to invest with huge Margin of Safety...???...Never chase the last dollars...have your own target price to exit...n reduce or eliminate your cost of capital. If the company don't pay dividend, bonus, etc...Just Sell all...when your target is reached... unless you know it's business model is sustainable n BODs allocated its retained earnings above average Dupont ROE. Always analyse its products or services...how is its demand... worldwide...who n why people buy or use it... cyclical or defensive...!!!...???

Aiyah whatever it's at present... looking at markets trends everywhere... interest rates are stabilised... liquidity is flowing 70~80% into equities...AAA bonds rates are going down...these are the crucial sentiments that everywhere stocks are in bullishness trends...Even we have all the FA is good... current n annual earnings are in green...if liquidity never flows into stocks...we are in Bearish trends...So think about it...I know many people are smart...but most of us never think rationally...!!!

Hahaha...I think many get influence by these quarters earnings...but it is one of the variables for price movements...N not business valuation as a whole. Business model plus earnings growth prospects are measured in years past, present, n future...past n present...we all knew it...but the future outcome we all don't know. Investing is more on these thesis...that we don't know...the probability n lot of calculated risks...So what's the future value of TopGlov...???... Nobody dare to calculate...but we as investors will try to estimate its approximate value...So keep on trying...what are the businesses TopGlov is doing...past, present...n the ultimate keys its future...I don't know...but I still invest... hehehe...!!!