it s OVERDONE

tomorrow RHB report will cap the down trend.... fear is taking this counter far down... sleep in peace frens

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sure tomorrow RHB, will take out a report on datasonic,, hope it is positive ha...

THEY ARE REALLY DRAINING OUT SPECULATORS FROM THIS STOCK,, BY PUMPING IN FEAR IN THE MIND OF RETAILERS...WHAT I HEARD ANNOUNCEMENT OF BONUS IS COMING ...EVENTHOUGH IF THEY APPROVED THE BONUS, I DON T THINK THIS STOCK WILL BE BULLISH LIKE BEFORE.. IT MIGHT RUN TO 3.50,, BUT SLOWLY... HERE N THERE,, THERE WILL BE STRONG PROFIT TAKING TO SHRUG OF SPECULATORS OR CONTRA PLAYERS...IF NO ANY STRONG NEWS IT S BETTER FOR THIS STOCK TO TRADE BELOW 4.08..

http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2014/04/dsonic-where-is-support.html

http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/nexttrade/50282.jsp

if want to kill speculation,, this is not the way, the stock was already trading below RHB price 4.08...why bursa still not satisfied.. why bursa want to see the price to go down very much,, then only will approved the bonus issue...bonus issue can be approved when it was trading below 4.08... why like this.????

RHB has to take out some statement tomorrow

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http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/04/15/Datasonic-under-selling-pressure-hits-end-Feb-low/

I AM SEARCHING FOR NEWS ON DATASONIC,,ONLY THIS I AM GETTING ABOVE LINK.. WHY BURSA SO QUIET TODAY,,,DID NOT QUESTION DATASONIC ABOUT PRICE DROP BELOW RHB TARGET PRICE, 4.08.... AT LEAST SAY SOMETHING HA,,, HAVE SOME COMPASSION VALUES TO RETAILERS---PUBLIC

alphajack -------RHB target price is 4.08

THIS IS DAMAGING THE STOCK

this is damaging to the stock,,somebody must take responsibility

it s the last push down,,who is smart will buy it...3.50 and below is cheap....i cannot find any bad news on datasonic online...if i find,,i will surely put the link here ok...the IR OFFICER told me nothing bad news on this counter

I JUST TALK TO MAHATHIR,,THE IR OFFICER,,NO ANY BAD NEWS ON THIS COUNTER,, THEY ARE ALSO WAITING FOR THE BONUS ISSUE ANNOUNCEMENT,, IT S COMING..NO SUCH THING LIKE BONUS ISSUE REJECTED

THIS IS JUST MARKET FORCES,,SO PLEASE GUYS DO NOT GET PANIC,,ALL ARE WAITING FOR BONUS ISSUE ANNOUNCEMENT

I JUST TALK TO MAHATHIR,,THE IR OFFICER,,NO ANY BAD NEWS ON THIS COUNTER,, THEY ARE ALSO WAITING FOR THE BONUS ISSUE ANNOUNCEMENT,, IT S COMING..NO SUCH THING LIKE BONUS ISSUE REJECTED

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/04/15/Datasonic-under-selling-pressure-hits-end-Feb-low/

mysterious99 -----------thanks

3.43

it s trying to hold at 9.50

is it will shoot now higher before rights,,,or after rights???? any oppinion guys

i mean target price,,,can it be 4 ha in few days time????

where the mother will go, any idea guys??????

Caveman -------thanks

should not go below 3.50 for this stock,,or else probelm

dow jones up 146

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WILL BE LISTED TOMORROW,,,,MY GOD CMSB IS GOING TO ROCKET UP TOMORROW

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MOTHER must move up strongly,,, i can only think one counter that can move strongly tomorrow,,oh my god CMSB !!!!!!!!!!

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once received UMA,,,then RHB becomes carefull when rating dsonic,,carefull not to create overspeculation... so for this stock is a TIME WAITING game

to break 1.65 level

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=773320319345913&set=a.228820880462529.68340.228799620464655&type=1&theater

GUYS DJ had already given his TA on mother share karex,,,,i hope more members can come in and give their TA oppinion on karex,, in this few days to come... DJ given 3.50 and 4,, in this near days to come.. thanks

DJ---------thanks for the TA,,, do always keep us inform on it s price targets on this karex forum...thanks DJ

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4. FINANCIALS
4.1 Profits set to rebound strongly in FY14
We expect FY14 to be a better year for JCY as the company is poised to ride on
the demand growth in the enterprise and mobile segments within the HDD
sector. We are projecting full-year sales of RM1.8bn with a core net profit of
RM153m (FY14-16 CAGR of 10%), which is a significant jump from the
RM70.4m core net loss recorded in FY13. However, we believe that this can be
achieved, driven by higher HDD shipment volumes, the increasing allocation of
orders from WD and Seagate and the potential expansion in product lines. The
stronger growth in profitability is due to economies of scale and improving
operational efficiencies.
Strong balance sheet and cashflow to support its dividend plan. JCY
has a strong balance sheet position with net cash of RM127m as at Dec 13 as the
company has been prudent in spending and mainly focused on automation
processes to increase its operational efficiency. In addition, JCY‟s free cashflow
operation stands at RM200m as at FY13. We think that this should enable JCY
to maintain its plans of paying out as much as 50% of its net profits in
dividends. Based on our 50% payout assumption, the dividend yield is
estimated to be between 5% and 6.3% for FY14-16.
Improving debtor days, meanwhile credit turnover remains stable.
JCY‟s average receivable days have been improving tremendously over the last
two years from 67 days in FY12 to 51 days in FY13. In general, we expect the
collection days to remain stable as customers typically pay within a 60-day
period. Meanwhile, its payable days remain stable, ranging from 56 days to 58
days over the last three years. However, its average inventory has been trending
up given the lower-than-expected demand following the recovery from the
floods in 2011.

3. RISKS
3.1 Structural threat from SSD
There are concerns in the industry regarding the competition from SSD as a
potential storage solution replacement for HDD given its high speed
performance and durability advantage. However, we do not think that SSD will
replace HDD given the lack of NAND industry capacity to cater to the global
storage demand. For example, Gartner reported that the HDD industry
delivered about 66.5 EB to businesses in 2012, compared to 1.8 EB enterprise
grade server and storage SSD. Gartner also estimated that it would take
US$210bn in fabrication investments to displace 15% of the demand for drives
in 2014.
Seagate highlighted that a new hard drive production facility would cost about
US$35m-50m and can be operational in about four months. However, a similar
NAND flash factory that produces 100,000 wafers per month costs about
US$4bn and takes about two years to build. Thus, we think that the higher cost
barrier will deter SSD from replacing HDD as the main storage solution.
3.2 Rising cost of raw materials
The cost and availability of certain raw materials used to manufacture HDD
components are critical to JCY‟s performance. A potential increase in raw
materials such as stainless steel and aluminium could impact JCY negatively
due to higher costs and lower operating margins if the company is unable to
transfer the increment to its customers.
3.3 Foreign exchange exposure
A weaker US$ would impact JCY negatively given that the bulk of its operating
expenses are in ringgit. However, in terms of raw materials, the company is
naturally hedged given that almost all of its purchases are in US$ against 100%
of its sales.

We think the stronger margin trends enjoyed by WD and Seagate are mainly
due to higher average selling prices (ASP). This was supported by Trendfocus
which highlighted that retail HDD selling prices are still above the levels before
the 2011 flood in Thailand. Trendfocus expects ASPs to remain flat in 2014 due
to the limited incentives for WD and Seagate to engage in a price war given that
both companies are still seeing orders come in despite the higher ASP. Hence,
we actually see this as positive for JCY because it helps to ease the ASP erosion.
Meanwhile, we expect its ongoing investment in automation and quality
improvement to yield better operational efficiencies and higher operating
leverage.

Ability to supply multi-HDD components and offer vertical
integration. One of the key strengths of JCY is its ability to supply multi-
components in huge volumes to customers. Moreover, JCY‟s manufacturing
facilities share common material planning and system integration, and this
gives JCY better control of the quality of its components. More importantly, this
can reduce the lead time, which allows the OEM to shorten the time-to-market
for its products. Therefore, we think that any potential consolidation in the
industry could provide the opportunity for JCY to clinch greater allocation and
volume.
Worst is over. Considering that JCY is sitting on a net cash position of
RM127m and free cashflow of about RM200m, we expect JCY to take advantage
of the challenging situation confronting some of its troubled peers in seeking
potential acquisition targets in order to grow and achieve better economies of
scale. Therefore we think the worst is over for JCY and it will maintain its
position as a leading HDD mechanical components manufacturer.
2.3 Easing in ASP pressure
Based on the historical earnings performance, we saw that JCY‟s end customers,
WD and Seagate have been enjoying steady margin expansion over the last four
quarters despite lower global HDD shipment volumes. The margin expansion is
expected to continue in 2014.

2.2 HDD industry consolidation could lead to better margin
We expect another round of consolidation among the HDD component
manufacturers given the challenging operating environment. Based on our
observation, there are several HDD component manufacturers that are still
struggling to recover from the devastating floods in Thailand in 2011, while
some have already left the market due to high reinvestment costs. Moreover,
some of the remaining component manufacturers are also having operational
issues as a result of the stringent quality requirements of HDD OEMs. The
sluggish industry demand in 2013 also made the recovery even tougher. Since
JCY was not impacted by the 2011 floods, we believe that it should benefit from
any potential industry consolidation, given its size and financial strength.
Size matters. Based on information gathered from listed HDD component
manufacturers, we understand that JCY is one of the biggest HDD component
manufacturers globally in terms of production volume. By market share, JCY is
one of the leading suppliers of base plates, top covers, antidiscs and actuators in
the world. We estimate that JCY currently has a market share of about 20-30%
for each of the HDD components that it manufactures.
JCY highlighted that it is one of the three major base plate producers, besides
MMI and Nidec. These producers control about 70-75% of the global base plate
volume. JCY supplies more than 60% of WD‟s base plates and about 10-20% of
Seagate‟s base plate requirements. For top covers, JCY is one of top three major
manufacturers that hold a combined market share of 80-85%, with the other
major players being Metal Form and Supernova. We estimate that JCY has
about 20-25% (vs. 14-16% previously) of the global market and supplying more
than 50% of WD‟s requirements. Meanwhile for antidiscs, we understand that
JCY is among the top two major suppliers left in this market, alongside Cheung
Woh. Both companies are estimated to have a combined market share of
around 60%. Finally, for actuators, JCY forecast that there are only three major
manufacturers, namely JCY, Belton and Compact, left in this segment – these
three players are estimated to have about 80-85% of the global actuator
production volume.

PC remains a drag, but shipments decline is easing. Gartner reported
that global PC shipments in 1Q14 fell by 1.7% yoy, which indicates an easing in
the severity compared to the past seven quarters. Gartner highlighted that
although PC market remains weak, it is showing signs of improvement
compared to last year that was partly helped by Microsoft decision to end the
Windows XP support on April 8. This has forced businesses and enterprise to
accelerate the PC refresh cycle. Despite the weakness in PC market, all of the
top five PC vendors recorded a shipments growth compared to last year. Lenovo,
which is the biggest PC vendor in the world, recorded 10.9%yoy shipments
growth driven by positive demand in all region except for Asia Pacific due to
slowdown in China and longer holidays during the quarter.

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Exciting future in storage technology. We think that the new
developments within storage technology are embracing the shift in consumer
demand and will propel the industry towards stronger growth. For example:
 Hybrid drives
A hybrid drive is a storage device that combines the NAND flash solid state
drive (SSD) with HDD technology. It offers better speed performance at the
cost-effective storage capacity of traditional HDDs. Seagate highlighted that
hybrid drive performance is closing the speed gap between HDD and SSD. For
example, on average it took a start-up time of about 37 sec using HDD-based
PCs, while SSD-based PCs cut that start-up time significantly to 20 sec.
However, with hybrid drives, the start-up time is reduced considerably to 22
sec, or 40% faster than traditional HDD. Apart from a faster processing
performance compared to HDD, hybrid drives cost much less relative to SSD.
Based on our survey from the online retailer, Newegg, we found that hybrid
drives are 5-6x cheaper relative to SSD prices. We think that with a competitive
pricing strategy, hybrid drives could potentially drive down tablet and
ultrabook prices. Hence, this could lead to higher hybrid drive shipment
volumes.

Moreover, we see the recent decision by China to lift its 14-year-old video game
console ban as a positive catalyst for HDD demand. Although it is still early
days before these gaming consoles penetrate the China market in bigger way,
we are encouraged by the growth potential given that Huawei had earlier
reported that there are about 400m people who play video games in China even
though the majority of that population account for online PC games. Based on
our recent meeting, JCY expects orders from the gaming console segment to
pick up in 2H14.
Ultrathin HDD opening up opportunities in the tablet market.
Following the increasing popularity of mobile devices such as tablets, there are
several developments in storage technology to address the demand for bigger
storage capacity for tablets. One of them is the ultra mobile 5mm HDD which
was announced by Seagate at the end of last year. The ultrathin HDD was
specifically designed in a 5mm form factor for the tablet market. We think that
the new product development could potentially mark a new end market for
HDD. We see the development positively as it offers JCY exposure to the
growing tablet market. We expect further margin expansion if the company is
able to gain traction from the tablet segment given that these ultrathin drives
generally command higher margins than its conventional hard drives.