Picked gold instead of steel

Above 80sen soon

Corn prices fell further below $6.2 per bushel, close to their lowest levels since mid-August, as the grain's supply outlook improved and demand expectations deteriorated on prospects of a global economic slowdown following rate hikes from major central banks. Brazil is forecast to harvest a record crop of 125.0 million tons and export a record 52.0 million tons in 2022/23, the US Agriculture Department said in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. At the same time, US corn supplies will likely be bigger, with domestic end stocks of corn for the 2022/23 marketing year pegged at 1.342 billion bushels, compared with the government's February outlook for 1.267 billion bushels. On the other hand, Argentine corn exports are projected at 29.0 million tons in 2022/23, the lowest since 2017/18, as this year's production has been heavily impacted by drought.

Wheat futures in the US retreated below $6.8 per bushel in March, the lowest in 18 months, as the USDA’s WASDE report confirmed the supply from the world’s top producers is set to increase. Top exporter Russia is projected to sell up to 60 million tonnes of wheat on foreign markets in the current marketing year, according to President Putin's speech to the country's Federal Assembly. Russia harvested a record-high 153.8 million tonnes of wheat in 2022, driving farmers to turn to international customers to empty silos ahead of the new crop. Also, Ukraine forecasted output to be strong in the next marketing year as the current winter wheat harvest was larger than expected. Meanwhile, Ankara continued to work towards the extension of the safe trade corridor deal for ships carrying grain out of Ukrainian Black Sea ports.

Corn prices fell further below $6.2 per bushel, close to their lowest levels since mid-August, as the grain's supply outlook improved and demand expectations deteriorated on prospects of a global economic slowdown following rate hikes from major central banks. Brazil is forecast to harvest a record crop of 125.0 million tons and export a record 52.0 million tons in 2022/23, the US Agriculture Department said in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. At the same time, US corn supplies will likely be bigger, with domestic end stocks of corn for the 2022/23 marketing year pegged at 1.342 billion bushels, compared with the government's February outlook for 1.267 billion bushels. On the other hand, Argentine corn exports are projected at 29.0 million tons in 2022/23, the lowest since 2017/18, as this year's production has been heavily impacted by drought.

Wheat futures in the US retreated below $6.8 per bushel in March, the lowest in 18 months, as the USDA’s WASDE report confirmed the supply from the world’s top producers is set to increase. Top exporter Russia is projected to sell up to 60 million tonnes of wheat on foreign markets in the current marketing year, according to President Putin's speech to the country's Federal Assembly. Russia harvested a record-high 153.8 million tonnes of wheat in 2022, driving farmers to turn to international customers to empty silos ahead of the new crop. Also, Ukraine forecasted output to be strong in the next marketing year as the current winter wheat harvest was larger than expected. Meanwhile, Ankara continued to work towards the extension of the safe trade corridor deal for ships carrying grain out of Ukrainian Black Sea ports.

Gold is the most rate and dollar-sensitive commodity.

Gold have inverse relationships to expectations lower interests rate hike (due to recent bank turmoil) and USD mounting debt curbs bond market that weaken USD currency

Tomei fundamentally is back by strong solid assets, valuable gold and gem.

Its best stock exposure in current turbulence financial time

Printed USD paper vs. precious gold and gem

Tomei is my largest stake in portfolio now

added balance to tomei at 1.10

UK gov proposed corporate tax hike from 19% to 25% in coming budget 15 Mar, but it's still need subject to vote in parliament. Wait for outcome before re-enter

bought LHI at 48.5-49sen

bought layhong at 27sen

US debt crisis will spur up precious metal price. China is in the midst to swap its bond holding and US currency deposit to gold and will use gold as anchor value for Yuan currency as alternative to USD in global trading and reserve

bought myeg at 75.5sen

sold at 87-87.5sen ahead of 15 Mar UK budget announcement on corporate tax

bought tomei at 1.11-1.13

Lawmakers in Hunt's governing Conservative Party want him to halt April's sharp jump in the corporation tax rate to help an economy on the verge of recession and which is the only one in the Group of Seven not to have recovered its size of before the coronavirus pandemic.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/node/658753

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/jeremy-hunts-corporation-tax-hike-would-make-britain-a-far-worse-place-to-do-business/ar-AA18r2wN

Wessex water will facing higher corporate tax from 19% to 25% begin April 2023. These measure if proceed will offset off most of benefit Wesses traffic hike rate unless Prime Minister Rishi Sunak reverse these policy

https://www.internationaltaxreview.com/article/2bb17ls7bcjbtws45dekg/uk-government-under-pressure-over-corporate-tax-hike

Agreed, Power seraya is fully integrated power solution, best partner for TNB, linking it to Singapore power market, earn risk free margin and forex

Data centers are typically owned and operated either by big companies (such as cloud vendors, banks, or telcos) for their own purposes or by co-location companies. The latter lease out the space and typically provide network capacity and power, as well as the cooling equipment that keeps down server temperatures. Tenants bring their own IT equipment. Data. Data centers have attracted the interest of investors because of the steady, utility-like cash flows and risk-adjusted yields.

dragon, that why is best for YTLP to reserve its 500MW solar capacity solely to power up its Green data center instead of opt to export to Singapore to maximize its landbank in kulai. YTLP can just opt for its seraya unit to source freely from TNB or other solar plant to import to singapore and get long term trading profit.

Based on development cost, YTLP is developing first phase 75MW green data center at cost RM 1.5 billion. But, based on LSS4 project owner, most of them develop their 50MW at range RM 150m -RM 200m only. Therefore, it is logical to YTLP green data center have much higher value than just sole solar power farm.

Power seraya already selected for maiden 2 year trial to import 100MW from TNB. More to come

Power seraya can just act as importer and earning trading profit by sourcing external power supplier like TNB or other solar plant developer since its kulai 500MW only reserve to supply solar for its own green data center

According YTLP plan, the entire 500MW green data center will be develop at cost RM 15 billion. First phase 75MW worth RM 1.5billion ready by Q1 2024 and remaining phase will be develop over 10 year period. Such huge green data investment RM 15 billion is secure by anchor tenant on long term commercial basis. YTLP current market capitalize only of its entire RM 15 billion green data hub

YTLP 500MW solar power plant is moving up value chain to green data center, maximize solar power profitbility

Agreed. YTLP kulai data center may solely reserve as green data center, power by 500MW solar power. The green data center will have dark fibre connection to Singapore which will entice Singapore business owner to use kulai data center as hub to store and backup all their data and score green certificate as part of their ESG effort to reduce carbon, score carbon credit and improve business rating

YTLP is largest independent solar power with capacity 500MW to be develop in few phase with first phase 75MW ready by Q1 2024. If gov allow export green energy, YTLP will play key role due to act as exporter from Msia and import taker through Seraya.

No doubt call warrant have better margin than underlying share, but is suit for short term trading.

Call warrant is passively dependent on underlying share performance, nothing unusual for call warrant now. The core is underlying stock, YTLP, now after 2 consecutive Q performance have pave way for all IB to upgrade buy call and pending growth driver from traffic rate hike from Wesse water, new stream of profit from COD jordan power plant and upcoming first phase RM 1.5 billion Green data center by Q1 2024.

:D)

To allow YTLP price fully recovery, we need great patient in every trading day as share price movement is within narrow range and only get boost up when Q result release or dividend declare.

I have very high hope on YTLP share performance in next 1 year to fully recover back above RM 1.50. These is supported by recovery in EPS to above 4sen per quarter. Core earning seraya + traffic hike in wessex water and maiden contributor from Jordan power plant + newly green data center phase 1 worth RM 1.5 billion by Q1 2024

dragon328

Based on historical data, YTLP share price is closely mimic to its earning EPS. But, market take time to reflect these trend, so, just patient

Regaining momentum :D)

RAM rating........The Group’s liquidity profile stayed superior, backed by RM6.83 bil of unencumbered cash reserves as at end-June 2022. The ratings consider the Group’s strong financial flexibility, with a sizeable net realisable asset value (RNAV) of around RM30 bil against company-level debts of RM7.52 bil as at the same date...

Remark: YTLP RM6.83 bil of unencumbered cash reserves as at end-June 2022 is more than current market capitalization of only RM RM 6.4 bil.

Aside YTL free cash is more than market capital, the more remarkable value is its realizable asset value is RM 30 bil, quadrupole higher than carry debt asset now at RM 7.5 bil

https://www.ram.com.my/pressrelease/?prviewid=6225

Social Security Organisation (Socso) <-------S.O.S

YTLP fundamental recovery cannot be continue ignore by IB. Current increasing EPS growth already promptly many IB to upgrade YTL target to > RM 1.00. Next upgrade is when wessex water profit resume and increasing, IB will chase up again to upgrade YTLP further high to RM 1.50. Next upgrade will be full operation shale power plant and phase 1 Green data center to RM 1.80

In additional, weakness in RM will boosts up further YTLP profit as all its earning kicker now derive from oversea currency denomination

1. Seraya power - Singapore, SGD = RM3.33
2. Wessex water and sewerage - UK, pound = RM 5.37
3. 465MW Shale power plant (45%) - Jordan, USD = RM 4.47 (Jordan power is USD denominated based on concession 30 year + 10 year extension)

In summary, YTLP earning now is highly predictable and share price will react accordingly, return back eps to 2015 EPS>16sen, dividend > 10sen level will follow return bank share price back to RM 1.60 in 2015. Up 100% capital appreciation is now achievable by end of these year or early next year

dragon328, correct, wessex water earning recovery will increase ytlp quarterly eps by another 1.5sen on top of existing seraya eps 2.4sen = eps 3.9sen. Full contribution from jordan power plant will add additional pes 0.5sen quarterly. Therefore, conservatively, quarterly eps =4sen-4.5sen, annualize eps > 16sen, dividend > 10sen

Many may claim shoppe now is no profitable due to reduce volume and logistic cost hike, but, digital banking is different business model. It involve none high cost logistic delivery, everything go online to deposit, access loan, market financial product, its 24 hour online business model, allowing everyone especially in rural area in East Msia to access banking service. With gov effort to increase 5g coverage up to 80% nationwide by 2024, online access at cheaper rate and wider area will promote further digital banking business model viability

Digital banking JV between YTLP and Sea (listed in US, own largest online Shoppe platform) . Digital banking can accept cash deposit, interest, loan, market finance product through exiting Shoppe online platform. Light assets cost structure, but huge potential to reach financial product to everyone at anytime

YTLP share price on track to return back above RM 1.50-1.80 level record in 2015 when EPS > 16sen, dividend > 10sen. Its whopping 100% gain from current market price of just 80sen

With everything in line, wessex water + seraya + COD jordan power plant = Full earning recovery back to 2015. Quarterly EPS > 4sen/share, annualize EPS 16sen, dividend 10-12sen.

Remark: Multibillion green data center solar power is ADDITIONAL future EPS growth

https://corporate.wessexwater.co.uk/our-performance/our-charges

New wessex water traffic rate hike up to 14.2% for household and 15.1% for wholesale is triple hike higher than any previous rate to accommodate current high inflation rate and to Wessex compensated earlier loss. Therefore, starting April 2023, Wessex water and sewerage will record MASSIVE profit surplus forward.

Please take note Wessex water new charge rate for water and sewerage new traffic rate is significant higher than hike in any previous year which range from lowest 4.1 to highest consumption 4.9% rate hike only.

but, the newer water and sewerage charge range hike wildly in accord the volume consumption, the more water usage, the higher rate charge incur up to 14.2% rate hike for household and 15.1% for wholesale non household.

YTL power wholly own Wessex water in UK have published new charge rate. The following relates to the year 2023-2024 water and sewerage charge starting 1 April 2023.

Taking account of our allowed revenues, the proposed mitigations above, and latest
forecasts for consumption we expect to see typical bill increases ranging from

for household bill = 5.8% - 14.2%
for non household wholesale bill = 8.3% to 15.1%