Q result will out today, grab back oppprtunity today on weeakness

I think Hengyuan result should much bettter than PetronM, concentrate capital bought back all hengyuan

bought back hengyuan at 5.30-5.40

No many stock can offer 10 year earning forward with CONFIRM increasing profit through decreasing interests expense, and after 3 year become net cash position.

These 10 year profits visibility only based on existing orderbook. Any new secure contact forward is additional plus profit and prolong earnings visibility longer than 10 year forward

Armanda Q result clearly show consistent earning without any effect y crude oil price up or down

Orderbook and extension total RM 22 billion, offer profit visibility 10x forward, allow armanda become NET CASH position after 3 year later.

Any new contract win is another catayst

Focus now is continue pare down debt every quarter, boosting EPS through decreasing interest expense.

By next year, debt level will trim down below 1x, paying dividend via payout ratio 25% become affordable or least 4.5sen.

Next Q result, armanda will record EPS > 4sen above, and EPS will on uptrending due to lower interest expense, trim debt ever quarter.

Net profit RM 186m, EPS 3.15sen
Net profit without impairment: RM 242m, EPS = 4.1sen

The Group reported net profit1 of RM186.3 million in Q2 2022, consistent with the Q1
2022 net profit of RM185.8 million..
Revenue from continuing operations was RM618.4 million in Q2 2022, an increase of
almost 17% compared to the previous quarter. This was mainly due to progress of the
Subsea Construction work in the Caspian Sea, as well as preliminary front end
engineering and design revenue recognised during the quarter. The solid performance
was achieved in Q2 2022 notwithstanding the impairment of RM88.0 million due to the
unsuccessful appeal of the Woodside litigation.
The future firm orderbook at the end of Q2 2022 amounted to RM13.1 billion, with
additional optional extensions of up to RM9.4 billion.

to buyback if on more weakness

to buyback if on more weakness

locked profit at 5.66-5.68

locked profit at 5.70-5.72

Net profit (EPS 68sen) is after net off derivative loss, if without derivative loss, net profit is double higher EPS RM 1.40). Since the crude oil price already decrease ,such derivative loss will writeback in next Q3

Each barrel of crude oil is refine breakdown into 3 major component product, with largest component is diesel, second is RON gasoline and lastly refine jet fuel

1. Gasoil/diesel crack spread chart (historical highest level range)
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1%21/

2. Gasoline/petrol RON 92 crack spread spread chart (normalize level range)
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/

3. Kerosene/ jet fuel crack spread (at historical highest range level)
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD2!/

To retest break above RM 6.00 and stand above to set floor support at RM 6

To retest break above RM 6.00 and stand above to set floor support at RM 6

Upcoming hatching egg outcome --darkness snake or golden dragon, soon to known, nothing to hide

Upcoming hatching egg outcome --darkness snake or golden dragon, soon to known, nothing to hide

Before surpass 50sen target level, lets it break 40sen resistance level first

Prefer steady move up, mop up selling pressure in each level, built up flooring support at each level ahead of Q result release

Prefer steady move up, mop up selling pressure in each level, built up flooring support at each level ahead of Q result release

Armanda exiting orderbook can offer Armanda last for another 7year, if take into account extension period, add another 3 year to 10 year earning visibility.

With decreasing interest expense from staggerring trim down debt every quarter, Armanda profit margin is getting higher to more than 40%

>50sen

Awaiting armanda india regasification LNG megae project progress announcements

sslee know how to calculate first

PetronM investor should post query in Petdag investor , and request for answer why they buy Petdag till RM22? why they don buy Petron till RM 22? If they said Petdag 1000 retail is largest, but, petron retail 750 is not too far behind and if profit divided by each retail, Petron retail profitability is higher. In additional, Petron is integrated downstream (refinery + retail/commercial) rather than Petdag pure downstream (retail/commercial), enable Petron to enjoy full range downstream value chain profit margin. https://www.petron.com.my/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/63rd-AGM-Summary-of-Proceedings-and-Appendix-A-Questions-from-Shareholders_2022.pdf

Q1: Petron Q2 EPS 67sen vs. Petdagangan Q2 EPS 24sen -----> 2.8x higher profitability
Q2: Petron RM 5.6 vs. Petdagangan share price RM 22------>4x affordability
Q3: Petron forward PE 3x vs. Petdagangan forward PE 30x -----> 10x competitive

page 7

https://www.petron.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Petron-Corporation-SEC-Registration-No_-31171_Quarterly-Report-SEC-Form-17-Q-1st-Quarter-2022_12-May-2022.pdf

Petron EPS 67sen vs. Petdagangan EPS 24sen -----> 2.8x higher profitability
Petron RM 5.6 vs. Petdagangan share price RM 22------>4x affordability
Petron forward PE 3x vs. Petdagangan forward PE 30x -----> 10x competitive

You can check previous Petron Corp Q1 result, the non-control interest profit is Peso 350m. The non-control interest profit refer to 26.6% non-control interest in Petron Malaysia. Therefore in total full Petron Malaysia profit should be
100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 350m = Peso 1316m
Peso 1316m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 105.3m (about match to PetronM Q1 net profit RM 106.3m)

Therefore, the latest Petron corp Q2 show non control interest profit is Peso 595m. Use the same formula above to calculate Petron Malaysia upcoming Q2 result

100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 595m = Peso 2237m
Peso 2237m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 178.9 (estimate PetronM upcoming EPS = 66sen), i give a little higher range EPS = 67-70sen due to currency translation factor

From Q result of petron corporation, a parent company of PetronM,, the upcoming PetronM should range around EPS= 67-70sen.

Petdag Q result comment (Pure downstream stock, source all refine product e.g jet fuel, diesel, gasoline from refiner )
Retail Segment
Retail Segment revenue increased by RM1,606.7 million, mainly contributed by higher sales volume of 50% as
well as increase in average selling prices by 4% in tandem with higher demand.
PBT recorded for the quarter was RM310.5 million, an increase of RM250.1 million against the corresponding
quarter, mainly contributed by higher gross profit from Mogas and Diesel following higher sales volume as well as higher other income contributed by gain on disposal of LPG business in Sarawak (proceeds from disposal of investment in Sarawak LPG business of RM40.0 million)

Commercial Segment
Commercial Segment recorded an increase in revenue of RM2,702.6 million or >100%, contributed by higher sales volume by 18% and increase in average selling prices by 85%. LBT of RM3.6 million was recorded as compared to PBT of RM28.0 million in the corresponding quarter last year.
This was predominantly due to lower gross profit from Diesel and Jet A1 following higher product costs resultant from steep increase in prices.

Petdagangan suffer loss in jet fuel and diesel for its commercial segment (consist of sales and purchase of petroleum products and provision of services to the commercial sector) - Sharp increase price by refiner resulted Petdag unable to fully pass to its commercial customer despite increase selling price 68%

Petdagangan suffer loss in jet fuel and diesel for its commercial segment (consist of sales and purchase of petroleum products and provision of services to the commercial sector) - Sharp increase price by refiner resulted Petdag unable to fully pass to its commercial customer despite increase selling price 68%

Petdag Q result comment (Pure downstream stock, source all refine product e.g jet fuel, diesel, gasoline from refiner )
Retail Segment
Retail Segment revenue increased by RM1,606.7 million, mainly contributed by higher sales volume of 50% as
well as increase in average selling prices by 4% in tandem with higher demand.
PBT recorded for the quarter was RM310.5 million, an increase of RM250.1 million against the corresponding
quarter, mainly contributed by higher gross profit from Mogas and Diesel following higher sales volume as well as higher other income contributed by gain on disposal of LPG business in Sarawak (proceeds from disposal of investment in Sarawak LPG business of RM40.0 million)

Commercial Segment
Commercial Segment recorded an increase in revenue of RM2,702.6 million or >100%, contributed by higher sales volume by 18% and increase in average selling prices by 85%. LBT of RM3.6 million was recorded as compared to PBT of RM28.0 million in the corresponding quarter last year.
This was predominantly due to lower gross profit from Diesel and Jet A1 following higher product costs resultant
from steep increase in prices.

Recurring and steady profit will offer overdue re-rating forward

Agreed

Eat pop corn, lets watch the show perfroming now :D)

Eat pop corn, lets watch the show perfroming now :D)

https://www.petron.com.my/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/63rd-AGM-Summary-of-Proceedings-and-Appendix-A-Questions-from-Shareholders_2022.pdf

https://www.petron.com.my/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/63rd-AGM-Summary-of-Proceedings-and-Appendix-A-Questions-from-Shareholders_2022.pdf

PetronM source local Malaysia low sulfur Tapis crude is however more expensive, trading at premium if compared to import crude from Saudi

The writteback and reinstate crude volume in coming Q already worth RM 130m + RM 130m = RM 260m (EPS 86sen)

Hengyuan have long term 5 year agreement with Shell station to supply refined product. The selling price to Shell station should based on spot price based on average Singapore crack spread. Hengyuan adopt swap crude oil/hedging refine product to mitigate volalite spot profit margin to shell station

Don surprise if RON97 reverse to increease 5sen in coming Wed. These is despite global crude oil decreasing, but crack spread for diessel remain elevated and gasoline also rebounding recently.

Aside coming Q2 windfall result, Refiner still enjoy bumper profit margin for next Q3 forward.

Don surprise if RON97 reverse to increease 5sen in coming Wed. These is despite global crude oil decreasing, but crack spread for diessel remain elevated and gasoline also rebounding recently.

Aside coming Q2 windfall result, Refiner still enjoy bumper profit margin for next Q3 forward.

TA start to show signal to perform while awaitng FA (Q result) to reaffirm uptrend

TA start to show signal to perform while awaitng FA (Q result) to reaffirm uptrend

You can check previous Petron Corp Q1 result, the non-control interest profit is Peso 350m. The non-control interest profit refer to 26.6% non-control interest in Petron Malaysia. Therefore in total full Petron Malaysia profit should be
100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 350m = Peso 1316m
Peso 1316m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 105.3m (about match to PetronM Q1 net profit RM 106.3m)

Therefore, the latest Petron corp Q2 show non control interest profit is Peso 595m. Use the same formula above to calculate Petron Malaysia upcoming Q2 result

100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 595m = Peso 2237m
Peso 2237m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 178.9 (estimate PetronM upcoming EPS = 66sen)

You can check previous Petron Corp Q1 result, the non-control interest profit is Peso 350m. The non-control interest profit refer to 26.6% non-control interest in Petron Malaysia. Therefore in total full Petron Malaysia profit should be
100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 350m = Peso 1316m
Peso 1316m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 105.3m (about match to PetronM Q1 net profit RM 106.3m)

Therefore, the latest Petron corp Q2 show non control interest profit is Peso 595m. Use the same formula above to calculate Petron Malaysia upcoming Q2 result

100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 595m = Peso 2237m
Peso 2237m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 178.9 (estimate PetronM upcoming EPS = 66sen)