Lets breakout 40sen level

American 'mid way measure trap' will soon doom Ukraine, ceasefire on track to stop western bleeding induce by oil inflation.

Better monitor closely global development in next 2 month, prolong sustainability in oil and high crack spread in doubt.

However, if indeed still able retain such elevated level by mid Aug, then, only is ripe time to enter cyclical stock like hengyuan before its Q2 result release end of Aug. Stay patience to avoid getting trap now.

I believe, crude oil is due correction soon as sanction over Russian oil is only limited to western country, but, global largest oil importer, both China and India actually increase import oil from Russian, reduce oil from Saudi.

The surplus oil vacate from Saudi only need to redirect back to meet western country demand. In short, globally, total supply oil only minimum affected.

It's good for entry level at current depress price. Tech stock performance drag down by rate hike which in turn is trigger by inflation, and root cause for current inflation is crude oil. If crude oil alike other commodity, due correction in near future, then inflation pressure may ease off, prompted Fed to scale back rate hike momentum in next meeting, July. If inflation hike start to ease off a little in june and july, Fed could only hike 0.5 instead 0.75, market will rebound then

I believe cypark may should trade surpass 40sen ahead of its Q result to be release end month. Share price may trade narrow range up to 60sen before Sept 2022 , a new date Commerical commission for both WTE and LSS2 and LSS3 solar IPP, once COD is confirm, share price should rebound back to above 90sen.

In short, shareholder could expect return of 100% if above 60sen for period july-Aug and return 200% if COD achieved, share price above 90sen after Sept 2020

heading to break 40sen

Good

buy call at 2.43

Answer: Don think testing take so long to complete, but, Since the extension sought is until end Sept 2022, and price tumble already largely reflect these risk, perhaps just hold and wait for management update in coming Q result by end month.

Cypark business is concessions, unlike tech stock which trade at high PE can trade above 20x due to growth exponential.

However, the good thing is that concession business allow long term steady profit for 21 year. The only risk is to meet date commission, if delay, risk is high, but if testing completed, commercial commission start, then valuation at least back to above PE 10x

Unisem is good proxy gor OSAT booming demand as US-china disintegration will demand double specifications, demand double volume to meet 2 side demand

If can rebound back to 90sen, enough for 2x gain alrdy.

Bargain price to buy for growths stock

Bargain price for growth stock

hahaha, use own discretion lol. Just wait and see

WTE and solar IPP, both are 21 year concessions. If commission is successful, it is cash cow, share at least can rebound back

Just another 3 month delay, at least time for waiting is short enough to cover risk

As said, the earlier biggest risk is default payment to sukuk due to delay commission solar IPP and WTE to meet last date set by sukuk end June 2022.

Cypark issue notice of extraordinary meeting to sukuk holder in 26 May, the 2 week notice coincide with rebound cypark share price last friday.

The notice is for sukuk holder to approve reschedule commission date from end June to end Sept 2022 for repayment period delay after Sept 2022 to meet new delay commission date

Impossible, instead will recognized higher billing as solar power and WTE which is in final testing are both progressing.

The strong momentum is high enough to fend off IDSS. Very soon you will get update from cypark management as Q result will release by end of these month.

The greater risk before is default of payment to cypark bond, but, if extraordinary meeting with bond/sukuk holder already approve to reschedule payment term to delay payment term from June to Sept, then, the risk is eliminated totally.

Now, is only for cypark to fulfill new date commission WTE and solar IPP to Sept.

I think extraordinary to seek sukuk holder have pass cypark to restructure the term to meet new date commission of WTE and solar power IPP

Probability already suffer in supermax, harta, now continue his motive to calculate again in hengyuan. That why he deserve to get backfire after backfire.

As said earlier, to buy cyclical stock, timing is important.

Why calculation formula will mislead your judgement ?

becasue the more you calculate to project future profit, the more you fall entrap to these calculated profit.

You will ignore market risk, ignore FA signal, fall in love in your own figure.

As said earlier, to buy cyclical stock, timing is important. Just wait patience till Aug to monitor whether oil and crack spread can sustain at elevated level before buyin to reduce holding risk.

A good example is MSC, tin price tumble just 2 week before Q result, despite post good result, but share price cut half from RM 5 to RM 2.5, as market look forward.

pity ---->probability

Calculation formula have sent him holland after supermax, harta, now in hengyuan. Never learnt lesson, get backfire

Just stay patience if wan to invest in cyclical stock, wait for july and Aug data to monitor oil and crack spread sustainbility to maintain at elevated level before buy in to reduce risk

hahaha, no story telling, but is based on factual finding

Calculation formula never correct as it is deal with highly cyclical business model in which profit margin is greatly affected by global commodity price. These kind of formula calculation to estimate future profit are happening in many commodity driven stock like cepat, jtiasa, for crude palm oil, tin for MSC, steel for AYS, hiaptek, aluminium for pmetal etc.

Same alike what happen in glove stock, many calculate ASP to project future profit. Some claim stock already down to pre pandemic level, but share price continue breaking record lower. These is inherited risk for cyclical stock business model.

Predict cyclical business profit even can correct in 1 quarter result, the next quarter result will be total different if commodity price volatile again. Many known that current superbull crude oil and high crack spread cannot last for long period, which is happening now in many commodity price like steel, aluminum, tin, crude palm oil and affect their stock proxy share performance significantly, which in turn may reflect oil proxy future performance if crude and crack spread due correction next.

For investor intend to re enter back hengyuan, capitalize crack spread, need to stay patience. Follow scenarios like what is MSC. Tin price supercycle, but tumbling just 2 week before MSC announce its result. Despite, MSC post good result, but share price cut half from RM 5 to RM 2.5 now.

Therefore, it is best to wait till end August before hengyuan release Q result and monitor whether crack spread still maintenance elevated level.

If crack spread tumble in july - Aug, despite hengyuan report good result, it share will not perform as market look forward.

However, if crude oil and crack spread retain current elevated level for prolong time till Aug, then, time is ripe for investor to re enter back both hengyuan and petronm to enjoy their good Q result and expect next Q result to be better or maintain as prolong high crude and crack spread reduce risk significantly.

It is dangerous to chase news, breaking news is always short term nature. The factual is global political leader cannot sustain their local inflation, all effort are put to curb inflation induce by oil. The higher the oil price, the greater policy change to curb oil.

Crude oil superbull alway link to recession as crude oil form major part of consumer index, inflation.

Inflation in turn is link to increase interest rate hike.

High interest rate damper economic growth, therefore reduce demand oil.

Low economic growth induce recession. The above is viscous cycle

Bear in mind, currently despite western suction Russian oil, but major oil importer, indian and China are increasing import oil from Russian, at expense to replace Saudi quota. Overall, only marginally reduce in global crude oil supply which can be easily meet by Saudi.

US baiden already on schedule to visit to Saudi to demand output. As long as US biden meet conditional demand by Saudi to support his king succession plan, Saudi render to help biden request. In additional, biden may use his power to incur windfall tax on US refiner, and use the tax income to subsidy US petrol price to bring down inflation ahead of his party year end election

Calculation formula never correct as it is deal with highly cyclical business model in which profit margin is greatly affected by global commodity price. These kind of formula calculation to estimate future profit are happening in many commodity driven stock like cepat, jtiasa, for crude palm oil, tin for MSC, steel for AYS, hiaptek, aluminium for pmetal etc.

Predict cyclical business profit even can correct in 1 quarter result, the next quarter result will be total different if commodity price volatile again. Many known that current superbull crude oil and high crack spread cannot last for long period, which is happening now in many commodity price like steel, aluminum, tin, crude palm oil and affect their stock proxy share performance significantly, which in turn may reflect oil proxy future performance if crude and crack spread due correction next.

For investor intend to re enter back hengyuan, capitalize crack spread, need to stay patience. Follow scenarios like what is MSC. Tin price supercycle, but tumbling just 2 week before MSC announce its result. Despite, MSC post good result, but share price cut half from RM 5 to RM 2.5 now.

Therefore, it is best to wait till end August before hengyuan release Q result and monitor whether crack spread still maintenance elevated level.

If crack spread tumble in july - Aug, despite hengyuan report good result, it share will not perform as market look forward.

However, if crude oil and crack spread retain current elevated level for prolong time till Aug, then, time is ripe for investor to re enter back both hengyuan and petronm to enjoy their good Q result and expect next Q result to be better or maintain as prolong high crude and crack spread reduce risk significantly.

If WTE concession COD can achieve by Sept 2022, it will be key game changer for cypark.

Tech stock is more resilient if compared to cyclical stock.

Tech stock recovery is fast if inflation cen be contain.

Many commodity price now alrdy under correction. Cyclical stock will underperform until next upcycle begin which is generally 5 year to 10 year later.

Unisem OSAT capacity on track to increase by 50% when its third phase expansion in china start commissioning year end.

Unisem OSAT capacity will increase additional 50% capacity when local new plant start commissioning by middle of next year.

Therefore, if everything on track, unisem earning is expect to double by end of next year.

Rising interest rate, lower material price and strengthen USD are good for Unisem as it is in net cash position, export driven business model.

Recent disposal in batam unused plant also to further boost unisem cash hoard and realise net gain RM 135m

Tech stock is more resilient if compared to cyclical stock.

Tech stock recovery is fast if inflation cen be contain.

Many commodity price now alrdy under correction. Cyclical stock will underperform until next upcycle begin which is generally 5 year to 10 year later.

Steel, aluminum, tin, gold, palm oil, all under correction. Crude oil superbull is also about to turn back coner as it is trigger by man made crisis, ukraine war against superpower Russian.

For investor intend to re enter back hengyuan, capitalize crack spread, need to stay patience. Follow scenarios like what is MSC. Tin price supercycle, but tumbling just 2 week before MSC announce its result. Despite, MSC post good result, but share price cut half from RM 5 to RM 2.5 now.

Therefore, it is best to wait till end August before hengyuan release Q result and monitor whether crack spread still maintenance elevated level.

If crack spread tumble in july - Aug, despite hengyuan report good result, it share will not perform as market look forward

Tech stock is more resilient if compared to cyclical stock.

Tech stock recovery is fast if inflation cen be contain.

Many commodity price now alrdy under correction. Cyclical stock will underperform until next upcycle begin which is generally 5 year to 10 year later.

Wow, two shark opening fighting each other, history to repeat itself again.

Show time to watch scavenger fighting, hope both can maintain or even outperformed previous drama show by digging more insider news.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/koonyewyinblog/2022-06-16-story-h1625030689-Hengyuan_is_dropping_continuously_Koon_Yew_Yin

Remark: Shark eat shark, conflict among scavengers, only their follower is victim incur multiple time loss due to call for to switch to Hengyuan, so call winning stock to recoup their failed stock loss. Committed too many sin by both shark to exploit their follower, backfire

shark eat shark, conflict among scavengers, needless to pity as both commit too many sin to exploit their follower, backfire

TA come first, FA only second. Instead holding till Aug, opt to buyback in august. Protect capital is to priority

TA indicate lower low, very bearish, protect capital first, so long buyback before Q2 release in August to recoup loss today now.

Petron source 100% crude oil from petronas

Hengyuan source 50% crude from petronas, 17% from Russia, balance from Arab and Asia

Russian is world top oil exporters

Saudi is only world second top exporter

Its normal for Hengyuan source some of crude oil from world top exporter, Russian, its normal trade.

Shell abandoned Russian is due to western pressure, but, the ban is no UN nor Malaysia policy.

Whether is legal or not, depending clause in agreement sign between hengyuan and Shell.

In the agreement, hengyuan is refine oil supplier for Shell. These agreements initially lapse last year, but renew to extend for another 5year till 2026.

Most of the petrol and dissel pump in Malaysia shell station are supply by hengyuan.

Hengyuan bought 17% crude oil fron Russia, but shell adpot policy to ban refine oil proceds from Russian crude oil

Hengyuan and shell have agreement to supply refine oil to its shell station. Hengyuan take prudent approach to write down these Russian crude oil.

Hengyuan can later find other buyer to take these Russian crude oil once the shipment arrive at its port Dickson by redirect shipment direct to buyer presumbly to its holding company in china.

Depending on selling price, these amount will be recoverable once payment confirm

Current share price is about promoter earlier start pump up level. Risk of getting trap by promoter is low now. It safer to hold current level till next Q result, Q to Q willl show increase EPS.

accumulation just completed, range 5.42-5.45

No more promoter, time to buyback all hengyuan now

Italy + france + jerman, leader all go to Ukraine to negotiate for ceasefire

Don be too naive, promoter will claim they are still holding and in fact buying more later to stimulate follower to buy again

or ask follower to stay longer to to orove their calculation to avoid getting blame

or if force sell, claim is due to market, promoter will said the loss is just peanut if compared to their million wealth. Must trust them as promoter will seek next victim stock to stir again interest

Promoter tend to turn on promotion scheme if stock positive to claim credit, if stock on negative, promoter will sideline, turn on promotion scheme after market closed or during weekend.

These is marketing strategy to entrap follower in order to get multiple reward for them to stay millionaires, then, ultimate billionaires at expense from follower. Alike get rich fast scheme, oly top pyramids get rewarded