cut all at 73sen

JAKS has formed a bullish engulfing candle accompanied by improved volumes. The MACD Histogram has turned green, but the RSI remains oversold. Monitor for a rebound above the RM0.83 level, targeting the RM0.96 and RM1.06 levels. Support will be set around the RM0.69 level.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/MplusOnline/2020-03-18-story-h1484898442-M_Online_Technical_Focus_18_March_2020.jsp

add more jaks at 74sen with all margin line

bought back all Jaks at 75-75.5sen

sold back all jaks at 76-77sen

sold back all jaks-wb at 45-46sen

use margin line, bought jaks-wb at 43-43.5sen

China itself already have many effective treatment, that is reason why the amount of patient recover can be as high as 69,0000. The effective treatment is combination of Chinese traditional medicine + western.

However, it still need clinical trial to scientifically proven and register

Many clinical trial already underway. Although massive production still need time year later. But, as long as initial clinical trail can show positive result, it is good enough to show that virus can be prevented through vaccination and such scientific outcome will increase understanding on virus. T

The more understanding will result reduce risk of uncertainty significantly. Worldwide already try to replicate China success in virus containment through travel ban.

China have show its experience in virus containment and have lend helpful hand to other country. China now is global leader and will become stronger after these outbreak is under control.

maxprofit2020

World wide government have give maximum dosage 'medicine' in response to virus and spur up economic. Such maximum dosage may have some side effect, causing panic in short term.

But, the 'medicine' still is effective treatment, therefore, its matter of time, market will recovery albeit at gradually pace

After series of volatile session, i believe US market already hit rock bottom near 20,000. With such drastic 'medicine', the treatment effect will surface soon. stock market will turn from panic to calm down and recovery soon.

Stock beaten down is through elevator, but stock recovery is through escalator. Be patient, stay calm as market panic still need a little time to gradually build up confident

Portfolio return back all to jaks

bought back all jaks at 70sen

maxprofit2020

Thanks, I now keep almost all cash in portfolio.

cut all jaks at 78-79sen

Dear OTB

If possible, explain to Mr Koon, with power plant ready for COD soon and tumbling oil price. The odds for Jaks to double its share price from 83sen to > 1.60 is much higher than Dayang to rebound back from 1.26 to > RM 2.50 within 3-6 month time.

After all, you have helping Mr Koon many time previously, kindly lend your good hand again to Mr Koon. Our society still need Mr Koon, a charity man and sponsor scholarship to those needed.

Dear OTB

Glad to hear you have busy time to buy more Jaks at current level. Perhaps you should advice too to MR Koon to take these opportunity to buy back Jaks instead of keeping Dayang. These is on the fact that Jaks will post increasing profit trend when power plant profit start recorded, whereas, Dayang will post decreasing profit trend as tumble crude oil already force oil company to scale back upstream capex significantly to conserve cash. Many of the oil service maintenance are on call out basis, once oil company cut capex, less service require from Dayang. The low oil price likely will persist for prolong time due to travel ban.

Lets turn to POSITIVE

Stay calm now, already fully invested. lets market readjust itself.

Jaks business is concession type of power generation in high growth Vietnam. Nothing wrong buy beaten down defensive business in time of bearish market.

These is last capital i have, all in jaks today.......

add more jaks at 77-78sen

sold back carimin at 52-52.5sen

add more at 50sen

bought back carimin at 50.5sen

Dear OTB

Thanks for your update with Jaks management. The Jaks power plant specification is higher than Hai Duong power plant even have higher spec than Vinh Tan 1. A suggestion to use the earning of Vinh Tan 1 to project the earning of Hai Duong power plant.


So, based on DK66 analysis on Vinh Tan 1 power current earning, the upcoming jaks profit is realistically materialize begin in next 1-2 month when IPP start COD.

Vinh Tan 1 is 55% owned by China Southern Power Grid. The PATNCI of China Southern Power Grid for 9 months ended 30th Sept 2019 was RMB 1,127m ( 9 months 2018 : RMB754m)

The PATNCI of China Southern Power Grid for 2018 which is attributable to Vinh Tan 1 was RMB56m

Calculation

Increase = RMB 1,127m - RMB 754m = RMB373m

Prorate to 12 Months = RMB373m/9 x 12 = RMB497m

Add 2018 PATNCI = RMB497m + RMB56m = RMB553m
100% Vinh Tan 1 PAT = RMB553 / 45% = RMB1,230m

At 7 USD/RMB Ex Rate = RMB1,230m / 7 = USD176m

At 4.2 USD/RM Ex Rate = USD176m x 4.2 = RM738m

Conclusion

Vinh Tan 1 has proven that power plants under BOT contracts in Vietnam are highly profitable.

For Jaks,

@30% sharing = RM221m = EPS RM 0.34

@40% sharing = RM295m = EPS RM 0.45

Hence, 10 times PE values Jaks between RM3.40 to RM4.50 and 15 times PE values Jaks between RM5.10 to RM6.75

bought bsck jsks at 90-90.5sen

cut naim at 67.5-68sen

cut carimin at 57-58

cut dayang at 1.21-1.23

cut 41-41.5sen

bought back naim at 72sen

bought back hibicus at 43.5sen

bought back carimin at 64-65sen

bought back dayang at 1.31

sold balance paramount at 1.34

cut all at 66-67sen

cut all at 1.38-1.39

cut all at 45.5-46.5sen

add hibiscus at 46.5sen to average down cost

add more dayang at 1.40

bought hibicus at 47.5-48sen

bought back carimin at 70-70.5sen

bought back dayang at 1.43-1.44

sold back naim at 74.5sen

sold back carimin at 68-69sen

sold back dayang at 1.40

bought back naim at 72-72.5sen

bought dayang at 1.27-1.29

bought back carimin at 65-65.5sen

sold back vs at 1.10