yea.. got some at RM2.5

some of these stocks which didnt fall that much also cna see some volume spike and activity on Friday

kc Loh... please add me... newbie here <= noby81@yahoo.com
many thanks

If selling was potentially done by BNY Mellon (US), lets queue limit down for the rest of their malaysian holdings.. haha
8）maybank
9）lafarge
10）boustead
11）mbsb
12）digi
13）media prima
14）carlberg
15）maxis
16）hap seng consolidated

Based on this article, Bank of New York Mellon could be the one dumping... anyone have a list of their Malaysian stocks ?
http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2013/06/wtf-closing-was-that.html

check this theory out
http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2013/06/wtf-closing-was-that.html

something wrong with TDM as well

what the hell !!

KC, my question is that how sure are you that warrant will reflect a 0% premium by expiry thus 15% gain assuming same mother share price ? warrant price may not always go up when mother goes up... sorry for my ignorance.. new to this warrant thing

Even though Maybank share stays the same at the present price at expiry of CW, one would make 15% as it is at a discount of 1.7%.

KC, I guess you are saying 15% because you are assuming that the warrant price will reflect a 0% premium by expiry ? Is that a sure thing ? Care to elaborate ?

Another undervalued company I see is Coastal contracts :-
ROE 13.8239
P/E 8.25
PTBV 1.1399

The company is involved in shipbuilding.. which is having some oversupply right now reason for their depressed earnings. . however, they do have a good management team.. and looking out for opportunities to diversify its sources of earnings.

It previously tried to enter the engineering & fabrication, FPSO and FSO segments but these have yet to take off. We note that it is also now contemplating the offshore drilling segment, in particular, as another avenue of recurring income (From Kenanga research)

KC,

Nice sharing... I think Muar Ban Lee, Willowglen also fits nicely into this criteria... To add...

P/B ratio of 2 may not be too expensive if we are looking at asset light companies so again comparison to sector average or peers will tell a better picture

P/E ratio of 25 is a good starting point, P/E =25 = earnings yield of 4% which exceeds FD rate. P/E ratio should be further compared to the sector or index average before decision is made...

Other screens I normally use are :-
Debt to equity < 0.5
Dividend yield > 5%

kc,please send to me as well.. noby81@yahoo.com... thanks

close at 0.62 with good volume... moving soon hopefully

wow break RM5

kc, one can look at it the other way, a stock yielding a high dividend yield wont stay at the same price forever, we saw this pre-GE where defensive stocks like REITs were bought up till their yields were compressed. So in a way buying a high yielding stock at the right price does envetually translate to capital gains + dividend yield in times of uncertainty.

Uchitec is one example of high dividend yield stock.. no doubt its earnings growth is not great but its 100% dividend payout policy is sustainable considering its strong cash position

moving up... what's going on... any development to exit PN17 ?

definely overdone selling, pick up more

kc, whats your valuation method for Pantech and why do you say it is fully valued at RM0.9

the yield depends on what price you acquired.. overall i would say 8.2% is still quite decent.

3 sen dividend declared

kc, nicely put...basically i have some aversion to construction companies in Malaysia due to the way contracts are awarded with corruption and all the under table deals... however pintaras would be an exception...

I wonder if the price moving up is caused by any funds buying in

wow... RM4.12... KC, finally the waiting pays off...

i m already not running on java but its still slow

i dont see any serious weakness yet although I cannot say what the TP is... just monitor the volume and watch out for excessive volume with prices closing in the low which indicate that the smart money is starting to distribute...

Anyone facing issues with this itradecimb ? damn slow to log in and keep getting kicked out... I m moving my money to Jupiter...

based on TA 61.5sen is a strong resistance point not expecting it to break through so fast... just have a good exit plan to cut loss or protect profit, anyway, this stock is under researched and undervalued.. only HwangDBS has coverage on it with a TP of RM0.85..

going to hit 60sen

kc, i m looking at SUCCESS, TA enterprise and LIHEN.... I feel these are undervalued stocks... feel free to share your views on these

suddenly up... now 0.55 :)

its normal to see some retracement when it hit 0.595... as long as down volume is low no concern..

kc, what is your valuation for Willow ?

close above RM1.2 today... great...

KC, no sixth sense, simply using EPV calculation method you explained before... with a 10% cost of capital.

this stock is worth at least RM1.5 ... i plan to pick up more on retracement

based on tradeguider software, the previous 2 bars doesnt look good, very high volume with level or down bar... supply is swamping demand... I would monitor the next few bars and hopefully the selling volume reduces (low volume down bars) before going in...

what is moving this stock ? TAGB is moving up too... expectation of better revenue from the property division in coming Q1 ?

moving ? whats up? any news on this counter ?

nice...

kc, wah.. you really senyap senyap pick up ar... haha....just kidding.. anyway, reading some of your comments and OTB comments on KHSB (very interesting forum :) ), i also pick up a few there last few months, so we tumpang each other la...

got dividend announced ? wow that would be a bonus...

wow break out from 50sen.. really unexpected
kc, no doubt willow is a good stock but actually these few days you throw a dart to bunch of stocks also can make money, its really a bull run now..
Even Kfima is moving right haha...
Anyway, I m not greedy, sold some at 50sen already

KFIMA is definitely a great company. It is really hard to find companies with such high FCF/Revenue (>20%) numbers trading cheaply ...
Yet one of the issue in Malayisa stock market is that the market cap to GDP is not proportionate, hence a lot of companies stay undervalued for a long time unlike other countries... just my opinion...

Broke out from 43 sen resistance

KC, what is your opinion on Keck Seng as a value play ?

Shane.. i definitely agree with you.. in fact I used to be unit trust agent before with a very famous fund house (large fund house but seriously over-rated- i think you know which one i m talking about)....the performance of the funds leaves much to be desired... especially the China funds.... lost big time there

Now I still invest in unit trusts but really do proper research before going in... basically fund investing also need to do research ,... on macro outlook , theme play etc... cannot just keep topping up

unit trusts tend to over-diversify... seldom you will find a unit trust that does focus investing, hence their returns will either track the index or slightly better...

for me I invest a small portion in unti trusts only for overseas exposure at a low rate through fund supermart (<2%). For malaysian stocks, i would rather buy the stocks myself...

kc ,any feedback on NTPM above ? I think you own these shares if I m not mistaken from your portfolio you shared a while back

I got interested in NTPM after reading the blogs here and did some analysis

Year 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
Revenue 449786 420227 383123 358557 306173 270730
EBIT 62746 69314 76474 60620 43926 40258
Net Income 44780 52063 59321 46222 34108 32190


Cash Flow of NTPM from 2006-2012
Year 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
CFFO 47624 47250 85521 57996 49575 38622
Capex 36922 38777 29140 23857 17812 13475
FCFF 10702 8473 56381 34139 31763 25147
Dividends paid 32571 32572 32573 38413 21119 14532
FCFF/Revenue 2% 2% 15% 10% 10% 9%
CFFO/NI 106% 91% 144% 125% 145% 120%

Year 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
EPS (sen) 4.0 4.6 5.3 4.1 5.5 5.2
DPS (sen) 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.4 3.4 2.3
DP ratio 72% 63% 55% 83% 62% 45%
Equity 283198 248742 228457 203931 181389 171441
ROE 15.81% 20.93% 25.97% 22.67% 18.80% 18.78%

The company's net income seems to be decreasing over the years even with higher revenue suggesting tightening margins. The lower net income was achieved despite the fact that pulp prices (their main raw material) remained low for the past 2 years. Where is this margin compreession coming from ? The minimum wave policy is also expected to have an impact on margins in future. The FCF is also much lower possibly due to overseas expansion indicated in higher capex ? Dividend payout is good but the past 2 years, dividend payment exceeded the free cashflow suggesting that it is actually digging into the cash reserves to pay the dividend... Has anyone projected NTPM intrinsic value ? Appreciate some feedback here...