I guess many newbies were misled by ckca and sold their positions earlier. Sigh...

Hamtam sama dia! Hahaha

You could be dead right Lchew! :D

We shall not settle for peanuts gain. 0.40 cents wall is very near

Morning SuperPanda. Yes it has been a long journey. But victory is near for most of us i think. Some may even be in paper gain positions already!

JC could be accumulating secretly now ma, he said after Q4 will buy !

Stock: [ARMADA]: BUMI ARMADA BHD

 Oct 9, 2019 11:35 PM | Report Abuse 

Johnchew@ Thanks but no on tis counter yet...after 4th QR...

Stock: [ARMADA]: BUMI ARMADA BHD

 Oct 9, 2019 11:31 PM | Report Abuse 

brain@ John, we keep inviting u to join and prosper here. Plenty of cash for everyone. Even at 50sen its still cheap. Easily 80 sen

Good write up, mikekim.
Much appreciated.


Stock: [ARMADA]: BUMI ARMADA BHD

Oct 10, 2019 5:47 PM | Report Abuse

I think it's important to realize that the fundamentals of Armada today is so much stronger than where it was 12 months ago with debt restructuring, significant cost rationalization, selling idle assets to pare down debt, kraken's improvement, winning new FPSO contract, higher utilization rate of OMS, stronger operating cashflow and shareholder's loan funding from AK signifying his commitment to the company.

Also we can expect in 2H2019:

1) at least a partial award of Claire's case up to US$285m in Q4 2019. BA's management has indicated that there's a high chance for a favorable outcome in all the quarterly/annual reports in the past. It's just a matter of timing, with $ coming in by June 2020 latest.

2) 3Q results in 45 days - we can expect an even higher net profit in 3Q. In 2Q, net profit was 78m. Assuming the same (without further improvement in Kraken), a 21m gain will be recognized for Perdana's disposal, and 18m gain will be recognized for Perdana opex cost saving (Affin report - mgmt stated that opex cost saving is 6m per month, so for 3 months it's 18m). So we could potentially see up to RM117m net profit in 3Q on a ceteris paribus basis.

3) Further improvement in Kraken, higher operating uptime = higher income

4) Stronger macro - oil price to increase seasonally in winter periods + trade war resolution

To play devil's advocate, I'm trying to put myself in the shoes of the bears / shortsellers.
The potential downside risk that I can think of and comments on the probability of it happening:

1) Kraken problems to resurface - maybe. 50-50. Who knows.

2) Kraken contract termination & thus the debt cannot be restructured to LT, therefore triggering a liquidity crunch - very low probability, client Enquest needs Kraken very badly to survive.

3) OMS contract termination for some OSV - leading to lower utilization rate. Low probability. The trend is that oil majors are increasing their capex and demand for OSV will improve (just look at Petronas looking to spend RM32bn in 2H2019). Armada has deployed 4 additional OSVs in Malaysian waters in 2Q alone.

4) Oil price tank below US$50. Low chance. OPEC+ won't allow this to happen They want oil price to be around US$60 per barrel, plus/minus 5.

5) Trade war doesn't resolve and escalate further. Maybe. Who knows. But judging from Trump's 2020 election, he needs a deal with China to boost his chances. Trump is all about holding onto power, he doesn't actually give a shit about trade war. It's all rhetorics. On this basis, I think there's a better chance than not for a trade war resolution.

After evaluating the merits and risks - my recommendation will be the one as usual:

Relax, keep calm, and continue buying on any temporal dips

Agree tkl88. Huat tomorrow!

The party is at Jaks

No show today i guess

Hahaha thats really funny mikekim. Perhaps its a new venture by BA!

Looks like the party has started here. Just joined better than never!

For uptrending and brighter future counter like Armada, never settle for peanuts gain Armadians!

Save this first, lets see if this super "sifu" prediction is accurate or not

Must be a multi millionaire or???

Stock: [ARMADA]: BUMI ARMADA BHD

 Oct 10, 2019 8:18 AM | Report Abuse 

yesterday Armada up, I was not here... hahaha, see pump and dump operators failed to catch me again. Today I am in again with IDSS.. dont believe watch how I make money again. Today sure down, because pump and dump are also caught together with all the ikan bilis at high price... just see who run first.

Operator want to collect kaw kaw first b4 shoot up

Perhaps give him the benefit of the doubt...he/she meant the rest of the doom and gloom guys

Posted by SHARK & SHORTIES > Oct 9, 2019 4:44 PM | Report Abuse

Hi Guys,

I have been following ARMADA forum for the past on year and i salute MIKE KIM and MABEL for their faith and input.

They are the true KING and QUEEN of ARMADA Kingdom.

There rest a bunch of idiots.

Sorry guys the truth hurts.

cheers
09/10/2019 5:08 PM

Welcome hng33. Good choice

Agree with Icon8888. Hold your position to earn big return!

Very clear trend...the more naysayers talk, the higher the Armada climb

Wa liow huat huat!!!

0.36 closing???

Surely will break by this week!

Big sifu already recommended this company

0.62 cleared MK76. Slow slow up to build stronger new base better

With all these naysayers old stories, price still rise from below 20 cents to 35 cents now.

Naysayers same old stories...not sien meh

Dumb dumb hold la for this excellent company!

At this rate, surely surpass rm5 by end of this month!

Up slow slow is the best

Today close above 0.62?

I heard the announcement of big contract should be out before end of the year. Hope Iris will get it. Hold!

Tomorrow sure huat!

0.605 defended really well despite big drop in DJ yday.

Hang in there shorties...better to change strategy and buy some to keep for big profits

Kraken is working hard!

Stay focused and block out the noise

Time to top up...

Building strong base

We Armadians hang tight...TP 70 cents otw, ignore the noise!

Many of their comrades also disappeared from 15 cents to over 30 cents

After the 3rd Q result and our Armada is above 50 cents, all these naysayers will disappear or change their IDs.

Yes MK76, but since Aug19, its uptrending. Hope to see it sustain the trend up like Frontkn and Penta!

I think by end of this week will achieve breakthrough...huat ah!!!

Must break 0.61 to fly

Well said, RJ87!

Posted by RJ87 > Oct 1, 2019 2:01 PM | Report Abuse 

Investor will hold on their share as they truly believe that Armada is undervalue. Here's what people like geco will do...They are IDSS trader. What they will do is sell you the shares they don't have and LIE about Armada so that you will sell back to them lower. You have to lose money so that they can gain. 

IDSS wish those sell back to them by immediately losing money. Investor might sell to you later at 
higher price. But we genuinely hope they you will thrive further with you investment by selling at even higher price. 

Ordinary people that dislike the business would just stay away. They won't put so much effort to LIE about a counter. Only IDSS will have such motivation. Investor may suffer abit from price being depressed in near term. We can't lose if we don't sell. But you, all the newbies, IDSS have to make sure you lose by selling them lower and to cover their position. Investor dont have such pressure. That's the truth. 

So, if you lose money in Armada; it's because you bought their share at high. And was deceived to sell back to them at low. It's not promoters fault. I believe most promoters hold on their shares tight tight. Its people like geco, Johnchew and ckca HAVE TO BUY BACK LOWER. You are not obliged to sell to them lower. See the big picture. Debt reducing, Core operating profit increasing.

Ex CEO and CFO resigned or terminated due to poor performance? You know meh?

A knife cuts both ways lo

People not commenting here does not mean they sold their positions ma... whatever naysayers have said already refuted many times over. What else needed to say leh

Naysayers cant deny this fact

Stay focus on Armada turnaround... it is a fact that one cannot deny, fundamentally things have improved. Debt reduced, 2 growing quarters of profits etc.