where is 3iii when we need him? hahaha

Write a comment..looks like someone selling big time and retail investor buying up.. carefull ah bros.. smoeone main2 here

i think there is shark main main with hy and petron..

damn guys check crack spread!!!!!!!!!!!

thank you all for you contribution.. i bid u farewell for now

haiyoh!

@Robert123 today wednesday bro.. last assault was on friday there is the difference on the days..

that fellow already sell his/her 1 percent or not?

seems petron is more steady this time around it goes down but ppl are buying again.. more like the price is normalizing

based on last week experience after lunch time is where the battle starts

something really odd i happening to oil counters.. drop again.. both petron and hy.. feeling shaky now

I believe the profit would be better that is the reason they are willing to pour in more money. Common sense ..the reason they are willing to invest is because based on current profit that they are making they are confident of making much more

but instituition would they buy on potential growth or dividend a factor?

is petron considered as undervalued or overvalued? on a positive note it pays divided.. on the negative side hy brings better profit. which is better hy or petron? why is everyone chasing hy when there is no divided? why petron sleepy

Petron must run faster.. hy already left u behind lor...

@samuel... Its eithet thry want to drive fown thenprice for them to buy or some smart donkey wants to present their crappy analysis. All these analysis comes after an event has happened. So it is bullocks... U here crap like the graph shows hang man pattern.. one leg up.. in a few days u will hear missionary and doggy pattern. .. if this trend analysis were really great that would be able to give warning before an event has happened with high success rate of prediction.

Yes 3iii until today u never explain you have been talking down on hy from january till december and price keep on going up

Usually this is a strategy employed by speculator of those scalping a stock. They talk down a stock then price go down then they bue ib large quantities and then they sell. Especially if they know it is a good stock and have high probability of generating profit. The play on ppls fear anf greed

No wonder u have strobg respect for the syndicate. I wonder r u piggyriding on their play..

3iii is so negative on but he is always monitoring this counter. Most of his post are concerning this counter. Actions speak louder than words 3iii

To say 3iii is not benefitting from this stock maybe inaccurate as we dont kbow whether he or she bought this stock or not. However i am consistently monitoring this stock including forums associated eith it because i have a direct stake in it. Makes you wonder does 3iii have a stake in it?

When price fall technical analyst will give reason for its falk if it rises technical analyst will give its reason. The common denominator is tht they gave their justification after the event lol

This fred tan is mphil only ka?

Hengyuan shandong going strong
https://in.reuters.com/article/china-oil-imports/update-3-china-issues-first-batch-of-crude-oil-import-quotas-for-2018-idINL4N1OS27J

mine is L-
petron - 30
hengyuan - 30
inari - 10%
hibiscus- 15%
umw - 15%

most in energy counter

100 k some more had i waited longer could have bought at 16.4

I got trappeh at 17.5 mofo

When ppl sell i buy. Weird ppl say about hy cannot be compared to nestle and dlady but forgot to inform the profit hy makes. Forgot to mention the rising price of crude.

Anyway i see large volumes of share being pulled out from hy and petron. Soneone wants to drive hy and petron down to collect cheap. I believe after this there will be a sharp rebound

I learnt lesson from masteel after kyy article. If fundamental is strong it will go back up after correction regardless of investor sentiment.

Last november same thing happen to hu. Normal man

This felicity superinvestor ka? Fundamental dun change. Crude is going up. Y ketar lutut. Takut sell la then come buy back at higher price

happy new year and bye!

@Pakcik Santa i read the blogs to get information from people with different investing styles and opinions, I shall not comment anymore

Goodluck and happy new year

@pakcik santa.. you sold of all your shares with yuor profit in hand. now i wonder why you come here everyday to give negative views on hy?? you want price go down to buy some more :p???

Really awet.. owh wow

This warrant thing how doed it work ah? Who lose more those bought mother share or warrant holders

quater report out 31 december 2017 rite?

@3iii if hy so bad you go la other counters where you think it is good.. always says gonna give a pass but still here talking rubbish for more or less a year.. u ok or not bro?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
@3iii My conservatively estimated intrinsic value for Hengyuan is $5.00.

With Hengyuan trading at $17 today, I will continue to give this a pass.

The intrinsic value could be much lower if Hengyuan fails to generate free cash flow in the near future (2018, 2019 ...) or runs into liquidity trouble. It has a huge capital expenditure contracted for 2018 and a sizeable loan to be repaid.

On the other hand, the intrinsic value could be higher if Hengyuan can sustain this year’s superb earnings. Valuation is tough as it’s earnings have been volatile. Granted Hengyuan has made a lot of money in 2017, it is worthwhile to find out the reasons. This year’s big earning is due to various factors shared by the management in the latest quarterly. This year’s big earning due to the confluence of various factors is the least sustainable source of an economic moat.

Overall too, there is not much evidence of a sustainable economic moat in Hengyuan’s historical financials. Hengyuan’s earning is volatile, it is capital intensive and its products commoditised.

Hengyuan stock price could move higher if the market gets enthusiastic about its prospects but it seems like a poor long term investment.


[My intrinsic value for Hengyuan is based on my estimated normalised earnings and FCF for this company for the next few years, conservatively.]



====


Scenario Analysis

Assuming various FCF in 2018 and the above assumptions, the intrinsic values of Hengyuan are as follows:

2018
FCF(m) … Int. Val. … ttm-EPS$ … PE
100 … 3.38 … 3.5 … 1.0
150 … 5.07 … 3.5 … 1.4
200 … 6.76 … 3.5 … 1.9
530 … 17.93 … 3.5 … 5.1
1000 … 33.82 … 3.5 … 9.7
1500 … 50.74 … 3.5 … 14.5



Better to do the DCF of FCF to arrive at intrinsic value rather than using PE.


===


Hengyuan

Free Cash Flow

(RM ,000)
2016 (58,363.0)
2015 632,550.0
2014 3,294.0
2013 (460,806.0)
2012 (446,242.0)


Total FCF from 2012 to 2016 was a negative (329.6 million) or negative (65.9 million) per year..



For the last 9M 2017, its FCF was 622.3 million.

For 2018, it will be spending $800 million on capex.



For the person who thinks that Hengyuan's PE should be 10, he is making an assumption that the FCF for Hengyuan in 2018 will be $1,000 million and this FCF will grow constantly at 5% per year for the next 10 years and grow subsequently at 3% per year for perpetuity.

To deliver a FCF of $1,000 million per year, its earnings would have to be a lot more than $1,000 million per year and it has to generate a lot more than $1,000 million per year in cash from its operations. Then, taking into account its capital expenditure, and minusing this from its CFO, it has to deliver $1,000 million FCF per year, consistently and growing constantly at 5% per year.


Good luck to those who think likewise.


====


What is the normalised earnings for Hengyuan in the next few years?

What is the normalised FCF for Hengyuan in the next few years?

What is your intrinsic value of Hengyuan?

seems that someone was pushing the price up for hy and petron and then sudden dump after lunch... some big shark shaking up things..

fundamental still intact guys

pretty sure you said something similiar to this this befor Q3 report went out which recorded 400 million profit and then the price jump start again..


@3iii Regret aversion can explain an investor's reluctance to sell losing investments to avoid confronting the fact that they have made poor decisions.

Disposition Effect Bias: This refers to a tendency to label investments as winners or losers. Disposition effect bias can lead an investor to hang onto an investment that no longer has any upside.

sapu la.. when people get fearfull get greedy lor...

aiyah logic la normal price correction.. has happened before last november i think..same old story .. price readjust and then back to normal..

3iii is the negative residence here.. this is also normal

you sir an accomplished troll hahaha

3iii >>>Posted by JN88 > Dec 29, 2017 04:09 PM | Report Abuse


China fund??? you crazy.... such small amount v using 30-40 million to push up.... not the game by china fund..<<<

I heard so much about these China funds buying into this counter from this forum.

Are you saying they are not in this fund yet?

petron and hy both badly affected.. market index suddenly go down too.. someone pulling out big time.. nvm if yuo want to collect then collect..

people like 3iii and the troll will always be here.. they have been wrong many times anyways and they keep on giving their worthless analysis..

wah petron nearly make me have heart attack in car today

collect again 100k.. hopefully correction is over

today i kena tendang with unta.. luckily still survive ..paiseh

3iii oklah bro go and buy petdag and go spend time at that forum ok

@3iii bro you have been proven wrong every single time.. ur analysis is ALWAYS wrong in regards to hy. if you no money to buy hy go and work la

@cloudboy as i remembered u sold after q3 saying take profit... Hahaha..

General raider is it still worth to buy more?

AchiEve 4.0 can but questiOn is when? NutOriOus shark in here?

I hope u guys are rite. Any rumours for this 31 december 2017. Anyone here started to invest in hengyuan now?

Anyway how come price drop hy go up.. petdag go up?

i got bad feeling this week... 31 december is soon and this happen.. haiz...

hy fly .. petron going down .. howcome?

Kyou really aiyoh.. u think i should sell all my 300k worth og petron. Pls give good advice for free

@permaisuri ok dont waste ur time here go with amanah saham. If they better y waste time here rite?

glove very huat this few days..