that I have no clue, but the basis their valuation and analysis is terrible, as if they have only a few minutes to come to a conclusion and do the write-up... MIDF has a higher valuation of 3.16. Though, it can't even get the number of enlarged shares right. MIDF uses 533.3 million shares, but Puncak report stated earlier 532.517 million shares will be the enlarged number of shares. And somehow, MIDF comes out with a FY2016 forecast profit of RM 10.8 million and pegged it with a PER of 12 to come to the valuation of its existing businesses, totally ignoring its cash from converting warrants and sukuk.

affin hwang has an impressive valuation on Puncak: We view this positively as this development would pave the way for Puncak to receive the delayed proceed from the disposal of its water asset... We maintain HOLD with a target price of RM 2.60 with a 10% to account Puncak's existing challenging business in the oil & gas industry due to low crude oil prices.

Hasn't affin hwang 'researcher' realized that upon disposal and distribution of special dividend, Puncak will be in a net cash position of RM 2.57 per share at minimum?!? And with an interest of even 3%, that would be over RM 40 millions? And that amount is about what it lost in a year, assuming business will be as bad as its first 6 months of operation in 2015?!? And, operating cash flow will be POSITIVE with over RM 16 million a year under similar operating condition?

To the extent that Puncak's cash position should deserve a 10% discount. A similar valuation approach, if applied to plantation companies, guess we should see KLCI reaching 1300 soon, or possibly below 1000

If there is anything that I can think of that could drag down Puncak share price, that would be convertible sukuk. This sukuk is convertible at 2 per share. If Puncak price is above 2, a conversion will cause an immediate return in excess of 2. Though, based on issued shares outstanding of 418 million, market has yet to observe the flotation of sukuk converted shares. Sigh, another few days of waiting period, I guess!

sudahkena, go and read today Edge's article on restructuring and assume you have no prior knowledge about Puncak. If you get attracted to Puncak share, I would be very surprise. If we can't bring demand for the stock, how would you be able to 'drive' up the price?

wiwangwang, surely upset, given my exposure and time spent on Puncak. Puncak price rose less than 10% on the news (big joke given market cap is much smaller than offered price for Selangor water asset) and it has already dropped due to 'technical correction.' Meanwhile, can't understood how on earth, both Edge and analysts barely respond on the news. I would understand had Edge raised concern about Azmin's willingness to complete deal. Instead, the news is ignored until late evening. To say that Edge is barred from joining is absurd given that Selangor state could have invited Edge! I don't know what's behind the whole issue, but strange is definitely what I smell since the last few days.

Another big joke by Am Research, 'uncertain future' with cash in hand of over 1.8 billion upon deal completed, so target price remain 2.80, a far cry below its cash in hand then, as if Rozali will eat all those money once Puncak receives the money.

Sudahkena, never know why am research so hard on puncak, will distribute special dividend ended up as may...

Sudahkena, don't be disappointed. probably will rise this afternoon, think will close at least 2.71, if you look at the close yesterday. Very similar, open higher to sell down during the day and ended up closing at a price higher than the close of previous day.

Singor, I have the same feeling. see above

how come I have a feeling that today's drop is by specialists selling to try the market and an attempt to buy low?

hng33, actually, I didn't add position by enlarging my portfolio except for when purchasing Puncak at 2.48, I merely sold some others to buy Puncak today.

added some at 2.67, fainted, the more I buy, the more it falls

err... its not because I am stressed up, but upset with how the whole issue is treated.

I have added more Puncak today at 2.68, 2,69, and 2.71 by selling almost all of my MNRB. Hope this is not a stupid decision.

roger, I have an average holding cost of 3, how can I earn? If you were to base on my purchase a few days back at 2.48, then, of course yes. But I am not ostrich leh...

smartly, my cost is 3 after including interest cost and selling cost. Well, slightly lower with today's added position. Truth is, regret doing it, mainly because I have meant to pare down my position for some time.

hng33, agree, that's why I said unless they also see short term gain in the deal (I mean EPF as they here)

My guess, based on technical trend (things that I never believe but try to comprehend), Puncak is still on an uptrend. Fundamentally, price barely reflects cash in hand. Furthermore, analysts on Puncak seem to be still in sleeping mode and do not react. Edge has been harsh on Puncak particularly. While agreeing to a concluded water restructuring, Edge has purposely focused on 'things yet to be done' with Splash. Probably that's why I am adding some more today, or just merely because I am upset with biased financial news reporting?

rich, guess unless Rozali is telling EPF a rosy picture after disposal, EPF won't buy long term. Unless they also see short term gain in the deal...

hng33, my feeling is, traders are trading due to Bollinger Band or whatever other technical indicators telling them to sell. Truth is, barely any analyst has responded towards the signed agreement, as if the four agreements carry no weight and only a cash transferred to Puncak by Selangor has any meaning. Even the Edge has reported with a focus on what next with Gamuda's Splash, as if deal is a long time to go, giving false impression to what's between Puncak and Selangor state coming to a closure. Reason as to why so, frankly, that would be totally out of my understanding already!

can't tahan seeing the price drop, bought some at 2.69 and 2.71. hope I am not catching a falling knife, sigh!

really have to respect hng33, selling when knowing deal is to be completed and market cap is at heavy discount to Selangor water asset disposal

the more I read into news, the more I felt that the politicians are feeling the pain from frequent water disruptions of late in Selangor. Why else would they consider to take over Puncak and Syabas before ABBAS when both Puncak and KPS have agreed to the takeover offer?!? Do we need to thank Rozali for this?!?

wonder if analysts are that slow to react to Selangor water restructuring news or if they are still not confident with the signing?!? CIMB Research does not published any revised valuation on Puncak today

opening 2.76?

hopefully Puncak will rise above 3 tomorrow, best if ended above 3.10. Think the news is heavily unexpected!

puzzling, with state and federal signing the documents already, EDGE has not even published it, as if this never happen. Meanwhile, analysts have not even come out with revised target price. Wonder if this has caught them by surprise that they didn't even know how to react, or they are not even aware of this?!?

Thanks sudahkena

Good good good, hope afternoon price performance will be better

hng33, are you mocking me?!?

sudahkena, I think our nation needs a third kind of alliance much different from current PR and BN, where elected politicians take calls from their party too much to ignore commoners like us.

roger, don't laugh so fast. Once confirmed, Puncak price may shoot much higher than 3.00 tomorrow or before closing today. Our governments, either from both PR or BN, have offered us little while taking too much from us and taken us by granted

hng33, old man easily fainted mah :) Actually, I doze off a few minutes just now when reading Edge Daily, then read so many of us trying to facts-finding, so 有感而发，哇哈哈哈

fainted, everyone sounds like our governments always tipu us... strange though, Edge is not reporting while Ongkili and Selangor state confirmed. Yet volume for today is so low...

no hope for limit up, probably 2.73

Singor, well, I am still in the red (and not Chinese red.) And not a sour note, but an angry note, for trusting Azmin.... Still, happy to see progress. Hope Azmin and the federal had agreed on what asset to transfer for 2 billion federal loan. I have yet to see the news on edge daily. Wonder why? Edge had always a step ahead in reporting Selangor water restructuring progress. Also, has yet to see analysts changing their target price.

loyalok, the no dividend announcement can only be found in annual report, which is why you haven't seen any announcement. Only when there is a dividend will there be an announcement. Of course, if MNRB board of directors really care about small fishes like us, they could have put a note to its quarter report announcement.

Singor, finally you are showing up, your news is right!

alas, fair value less than cash in hand after asset disposal? If I were not wrong, fair value should be between 3.70 - 4.20, but most likely share price will be lower given current market sentiment. Still, it should be traded between 3.30 and 3.80. It could be higher if Rozali can get big infrastructure projects in coming months with strengthened balance sheet after disposal. Personally, I will be very happy if Puncak crosses 3.50 and extremely happy if it crosses 3.70.

hng33, I am still making losses in Puncak, my cost is 3.00 per share... A 20% switch to KPS could reduce my losses by 2.5% (I am leveraging in Malaysia stocks)

hng33, if I had listened to your advice and split maybe 20% into KPS while still keeping 80% in Puncak (It would be hard for me to switch more given my nature,) I would have made more mah. So, of course, 欲哭无泪啦！

hng33, I took your advice and read KPS quarter report. Knowing about KPS's involvement in SPLASH, thought I can take the profit from Puncak to buy some KPS later. Instead, 欲哭无泪啊, KPS is rising faster than Puncak.

Also, got burnt once by Puncak call warrant, decide not to touch given my naivety about Malaysia politics.

fainted, KPS up 14% while Puncak up only 7%. Thought KPS has SPLASH yet to be concluded and should face more uncertainties... Sigh, 股海无涯啊！

hng33, fainted, you are real quick in making adjustment! I usually need days to consider, and that's after another few days of reading news, quarter reports and relevant info on the stocks to adjust.

hng33, you are brave and scary
congratulations to all still holding!

hng33, managed to buy some this morning?

hopefully this is for real now! Also saw this on Malaysia Insider

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/water-deal-between-putrajaya-and-selangor-concludes-tuesday

The water deal between the federal government and Selangor government will be concluded on Tuesday, according to the Energy, Green Technology and Water Ministry tonight.

A signing ceremony of the deal will be held in Shah Alam between Pengurusan Aset Air Berhad (PAAB) and Pengurusan Air Selangor Sdn Bhd (Air Selangor) to seal four agreements under the restructuring of Selangor's water services industry.

In a statement released by the ministry, the four agreements are the Facilities Agreement, Lease Agreement, Rights of Use Agreement and Settlement Agreement, which are Condition Precedents to effect the Master Agreement for the restructuring exercise.

At the same event, Energy, Green Technology and Water Minister Datuk Seri Maximus Ongkili will hand over to Selangor Menteri Besar Mohamed Azmin Ali the Facilities and Service Licenses issued to Air Selangor.

This is the final Condition Precedent to the Master Agreement that needs to be fulfilled by the federal government.

"With the conclusion of the agreements and handing over of the licenses, the critical Condition Precedents would be completed and fulfilled.

This means the Master Agreement will take effect from September 9, 2015," the statement said.

With the Master Agreement in effect, Air Selangor can now hand over the required land titles with value of up to RM2 billion to PAAB in order for PAAB to provide the necessary funds for Air Selangor to take over the Selangor water concessionaires. – Bernama, September 6, 2015.

upsidedown,

418 million shares don't include warrant conversion as well as sukuk conversion. There are RM 140 over millions of sukuk convertible into Puncak shares @ RM 2 a share. 532 million shares is stated in the circular to shareholders with regards to disposal of Selangor water asset. Net cash in hand after conversion of 346.199 millions has not considered the proceed of 1,555.3 millions from Selangor water asset disposal. It merely reflects cash in hand after all sukuk and warrants are converted into Puncak shares. I include receivables and payables by treating them as cash because receivables is larger than payables, which is why I added RM 3.64 as net cash in hand if receivables and payables are not in the table.

My analysis earlier this year suggests RM 3.70, higher than current RM 3.57 due to losses in other businesses and added fixed asset. Hng33 should be able to confirm my analysis.

From most recent quarter report:

trade & receivable 176,570,000
short term investment 10,375,000
cash in hand 423,812,000
loans & borrowing (long) (182,977,000)
loans & borrowing (short) (42,941,000)
trade & other payable (216,023,000)
net cash in hand before any conversion 168,816,000
converted bonds (assumed full) 141,596,000
converted warrants (assumed full) 35,787,000
net cash after full conversion 346,199,000
proceed from water asset disposal 1,555,300,000
total cash in hand 1,901,499,000
outstanding shares 532,517,000
per share cash in hand RM 3.57 before special dividend

If excluding receivable and payable, per share cash in hand should be RM 3.64 per share before special dividend. Aside from this, Puncak should still have roughly RM 1.00 per share of fixed asset and an additional cash of RM 306,000 from disposing Hebei water supply co.

just asked google 大神，apparently Rozali and Najib are abang adik. Guess that's comforting news.

upsidedown, probably aim for 3.50 instead of 3.80. Even 3.50 is a high hope given so poor sentiment in market right now. Otherwise, you may never know if jacklintan is female or male.

6% is small compared to brokerage fee and stamp duty. Brokerage fee can be reduced if you don't use margin account and negotiate for best rate. stamp duty can be lowered only if you trade above 200K per share per day, something only big boys enjoy.

Wonder if Rozali is pro-Najib or pro-Mahathir?!?

Singor, thanks. Your info always comfort me :)

jacklintan, hng33 adopts a different approach to investment. Its hard to say on who's right or wrong. On a uptrend market, our hold and wait approach usually works best. On a downtrend, stkoay's probably is the best, having avoided all risk. On a yoyo trend, though, hng33 is the safest, especially so when he's able to sense the upcoming up-movement. The bigger issue is, who can time the market best? Guess there is no telling until the game ends, or when the players have decided to leave the table.

Frankly, I have initially adopted a sell to 30% cash last October had it not been the 'superb' opportunity (turns out to be a disaster) I 'sense' out of Puncak.

On insider trading, from my understanding, even the most 'liquid' market like US also can't avoid it. Even with heavy penalty, it still happens.

Current market situation, quite frankly, is not all that bad. Its more like half empty scenario. Quite some stocks have reached or near their 2007/2008 lows. Sometimes, when everybody is saying the worst is yet to come, probably its the worst already, unless its the Great Depression, which I doubt could happen given central governments around the world are more willing to print. Our nation is suffering of late, in my opinion, is due more to falling natural gas price, which is around USD8 per MMBTU, besides falling crude oil and palm oil. The commodity prices may not yet see their bottom, but most likely not too far given the replacement cost.

singor, when do you think the water restructuring will be announced completed? thanks

Trading so thin today, guess no announcement later

hng33, no, not yet, wanted to wait and see how Puncak does today. My hypothesis goes like this, oil will stay low for quite some time, at least until end of this year. Oil companies share price should be low for quite some time, good for short term trades or long term holding. Furthermore, my fund is pretty much tied up by Puncak already, and no harm waiting a few days to see its progress...