Adam, not sure about others, but I am buying not due to just the special dividend, but its net tangible asset per share that's hugely in cash.

Based on its most recent quarter report, Puncak should have at least RM 3.60 per share of CASH, assuming all warrants and sukuk are converted into shares with an enlarged shares outstanding of 533 million shares to more than RM 4.00 per share of CASH, assuming 0 warrant/sukuk conversion. Of course, Puncak net cash per share should come in between RM 3.60 - RM 4.00. Aside from this, Puncak should have lands (Kuala Selangor along has 280 acres of land - and be remembered Ecoworld just bought over 1,000 acres there at over RM 1 million per acre!), water concession in China, and construction projects (profitable) and O&G business (huge losses, probably that's why UMW retired boss is brought in). These should carry a value of RM 1.00 - RM 1.25 per share.

The above valuation could be found if you read the most recent quarter report as well as prospectus of Selangor water asset disposal.

Most anal-yst report from major investment banks (think only CIMB values Puncak @ 3.40 and Kenanga @ 3.99 with the rest less than 3.20 per share) are not friendly at all, with all citing uncertainty about its future, i.e., what will be income generator! Surely, if one didn't do his/her independent analysis while relying on these anal-ysts to provide the basic, none would consider investing, given uncertainty and value per share of less than 3.20.

I have tried to come up with reasons why Puncak has not been able to perform despite water deal completion, special dividend announcement, and appointment of an experienced new head. These include:
(1) Few coverage with negative recommendations from most investment banks! A factor that can hardly be changed until a change in viewpoints.

(2) Over concern about its future prospect without realizing that the cash per share left alone is sufficient to cover future losses in O&G (cash of RM 2.60 at interest rate of 3% should generate about RM 40 million cash) and possibly irresponsible investment decision (possible but not highly likely, given Rozali himself owns over 40% of Puncak.)

(3) Concern of oversupply in new shares from warrant/sukuk conversion, which could be as high as 25% in addition to current shares outstanding. Quite frankly, I have overlooked this possibility when considering my investment in Puncak.

(4) Lack of major funds participation. Islamic Funds are not allowed to buy while those currently hold Puncak has to look into disposal given that Puncak no longer 'halal' (wonder if that the status could change in near future?!?). Meanwhile, EPF has been selling to less than 5% exposure, guess most funds prefer investing in stocks with 'bright' future with stories to tell.

Anyhow, I sincerely believe Puncak should at least be valued between 3.30 and 3.80, depending on market situation, while below RM 3.00 a sure hold and RM 3.00 - RM 3.30 disposable if a new investment opportunity arises.

adam, your logic is illogical at best. You said "ONLY money in your pocket is HOT". Before the special dividend announcement or the water deal completion, there is no certainty HOT in us, shareholders, or Puncak. Since water deal is completed, which is an assurance of 1.5553 billion cash to Puncak, Puncak share price rose from 2.5x to 2.8x, which is about 10% for HOT in Puncak's coffer. Then, when special dividend is announced, Puncak share price rose from 2.8x to 3.0x, and quickly fell to currently level of 2.8x. Wonder where is the HOT in shareholders as you said? Don't tell me 1 ringgit is not significant enough to be considered HOT...

Mine is a margin account, so brokerage firm does everything for me. My brokerage firm warns me to send conversion request the latest on Nov 17, not sure others though. If not using margin account, probably can convert another round, but very risky on the second round. So, if you are keen with conversion and would only start tomorrow, better check with your brokerage first if your account is margin and convert only once given window of opportunity is too thin right now.

roger, I intend to hold until after special dividend, so no difference. Plus, the conversion should take 2 weeks or less. I have done it several times last year.

Actually, I kind of like current scenario, with Puncak warrant at 1.06-1.07 less than Puncak. Last week, I managed to sell Puncak at an average of 2.904 and buying 8% less of warrants at 1.850 and have those warrants converted to Puncak. This is equivalent to selling my 8% of Puncak at 3.25. Intend to do one more round this coming Wednesday or Thursday if difference around 1.07-1.08.

think its concern for both warrants and sukuk conversion that would flood the market with over 120 million new shares... Guess its time for Puncak to announce share buy back, otherwise, we better hope those sukuk holders either don't convert or not selling converted shares... or, funds starting to buy.

ks55, may I know what do you mean by "balance 65% cash still worth more (according to some people)"? Are you suggesting balance 65% cash is 'actually' less than 1.85 per share?

something I found funny and would like to share:

While Puncak-WB is a cheaper entry to Puncak, given that conversion cost is RM 1.00 while the price differential between Puncak and its warrant is 1.06, something just isn't right. Its basically buying Puncak-WB at 1.82/1.83, going through the hassle to convert the warrant, only to get back the RM 1.00 that you have sent in for conversion as special dividend.

Though, Puncak and Rozali seem determined to force all warrant holders to convert or suffer the consequence of 'lost' special dividend. Meanwhile, Puncak hasn't announced if the bondholders will also face the same dilemma, convert to Puncak shares to enjoy RM 1 special dividend or facing the same fate of warrant holders, no reduction in exchange price, which is currently at 2.00 per share.

In addition, since Puncak has allocated 532.5 millions for special dividend, its actual payout will definitely be less than that. Reason being (1) 35.8 millions are actually 'contributed' by warrant holders and (2) not all bondholders will convert their bonds. I was wondering, even if bondholders were to convert their sukuk, would there be another round of dividend to clear the 532.5 millions or Puncak will merely hold on to these cash.

Sorry, it should be 5 days before Nov 25 rather than ex-date of special dividend, given that Puncak has announced earlier that conversion form must be received no later than Nov 25 5pm

for every Puncak-WB, you can convert it into one share of Puncak at a cost of 1.00. Its a slightly cheaper cost of entry for Puncak

currently,Puncak-WB is at 1.82, and the cost of converting into Puncak is 1.00. So, your cost of investment is 2.82 (pre-transaction cost), while Puncak is currently is trading at 2.89. The process of conversion should take approximately 7-10 working days. Ask your remisier on how to get it done safely and quickly. Plus, make sure not to buy anymore warrants for conversion at least 5 days before the ex-date of special dividend to be safe. Reason being so: You need 3 days after purchasing WB before sending in the request for conversion and it will take 1 day by express for the form to reach the registrar office.

timing, yes, before Dec 4, but cheaper if buy warrants and have them converted...

sudahkena, frankly, I have no clue right now. When hng33 is selling at 3.07-3.08, I was actually struggling if I should wait for 3.30 before start selling some, and the 'wait' idea keeps winning. I keep having trouble selling when I hold too long a share. Today, I have sold half of my Puncak to buy roughly the same amount of warrants, making a few thousands of profit. Now I will have to focus on converting my warrants to wait for special dividend.

Probably picture will be clearer once quarter result is announced...

I have been doing that today, I sold Puncak at 2.89/2.90 to buy warrants at 1.83. Nothing comparable to how much hng33 can make though...

superb99, if you intend to hold until dividend is paid and were waiting to buy at 2.85, you might as well buy warrant at 1.83/1.84 now and send it in for conversion.

hng33, ?!? I appreciate your analysis and your buy/sell call and enjoy reading when you make profit, but that doesn't mean I can't show my disappointment.

roger, I have actually made some profit in Puncak already. Its my Malaysia portfolio for this year that just break even (mainly because I sold my BJCorp and MNRB at loss to buy more Puncak this year).

hng33, I can't show my disappointment?!?

hng33, alas, not everyone is as sharp as you in trading... I, for example, have actually thought about selling at 3.07-3.08 too (that's before seeing your post), but didn't manage to make it, believing there is still some potential left and decide to keep.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/focus-dynamics-puncak-niaga-rexit-do-destini-btm-jag-frontken-cypark-huat-lai?type=Corporate

Finally, edge saying Puncak showing positive momentum...

Anyway, will keep mine for the next few days, hoping that I am right and there is still more upside potential for Puncak. Nearly breakeven already, anyway

superb99, thought I saw somewhere hng33 had already bought back around 2.97 after selling at 3.07-3.08. Guess you are buying from someone else...

annchua, it may still reach 3.80 after a clearer picture about how Puncak will spend its billions cash and anal-ysts like what they see. I will definitely sell should anal-ysts like how Puncak spends its billions.

Real disappointed, indeed. What can I do but to hope the rise will continue? Sorry if my analysis had made any of you disappointed.

still holding, manage to breakeven for this year, a comforting news at the least...

cheoky, actually, I am concerned that we may not see the rise that we have been hoping for (to me, for example, between 0.40 - 0.60). Until now, except for star and 中国报, there is no news about Puncak declaring RM 1.00 special dividend...

hng33, never realize you are also interested in hwang...

hng33, how much upside do you think we may get?

ckk2266, 2.80 to 2.86 is barely a rally... I am talking about a 0.30 - 0.50 upside. Anyway, hope there could be a limit up miracle tomorrow, especially when its not even mentioned in Edge Daily on the website yet

Something that's hard to comprehend here, there usually a rally before positive news. Yet, in Puncak's case, there hasn't been any rally nearing the closing hour...

Another puzzle, with this special dividend announcement, Edge Daily doesn't even try to point out today after market closed.

Puzzling, puzzling, puzzling!

ks55, this is crazy, with such a special dividend, there is no changes in the conversion price. Now I have to spend to convert my warrants now! Hopefully, Puncak will announce on the future of warrants not converted tomorrow.

Puncak no longer has water asset in Malaysia, how to get rally on water theme?!?

Ckk2266, sure hope Puncak will reach 3.30-3.80 range soon...:-:

BN inflated cost of water through cronyism, PR exacerbates the situation merely to claim who knows what...

ckk2266, see if you can buy at 1.83... think Puncak and warrant price will go up about the same amount until special dividend announcement is out...

hng33 will be back or back already, he is quick in action and good at sniffing opportunities

hopefully Puncak keeps on rising with special dividend announcement out this evening, wahahaha...

ks55, warrant holders are entitled to special dividend lah! Take a look at Kulim special dividend of 37.65 cents last year, the conversion price is slashed from 3.13 to 2.77, reduced by 36 cents.

wiwangwang, the conversion means nothing... Given that Rozali hasn't moved yet, I would assume either there will be plenty of time for conversion after announcement or the payment offered to warrant holders will be fair

roger, its not kali, its azmin that caused this! Delaying something that's unavoidable for nonsense reason. Only trying to stop playing politics after realizing that Rozali knows how to play water!

Tired of adding Puncak warrant without price appreciation while seeing those that I have sold to add Puncak kept rising... sigh, yet no choice but keep adding in hope interest in Puncak will come back soon

Roger, why don't you call Rozali for us?

Malaysia boleh, anything is possible...

Frankly, seeing the dismay Puncak price performance, almost want to use the F word already. This time on Rozali for inaction after disposal...

Really can't blame Roger's conspiracy theories, especially when the market is quite about Puncak's news despite the completed water deal. Besides, anal-ysts are mostly have a wait n see attitudes on Puncak after the deal, giving out crazy target prices. All the while, Puncak board also keeps quite n not invited for newspapers' to discuss the 'future' blah blah blah...

Nothing can be done but to keep on holding n can hope my math skills are still good n no mistake was done in sorting out it's cash position

epf is no longer substantial shareholder owning more than 5% and no longer required to report any purchase or disposal. I think lth holding is much high n serve no purpose selling now, particularly when its holding so much cash...

jacklintan, same feeling, sigh!

hng33, just saw the KPS deal to sell Selangor water asset. The whole deal manages to clear KPS of debt but the net asset per share actually drops. Its nothing comparable to what Puncak is getting leh...

BN_menang, interesting idea, due to a 'possibly' delay in special dividend, even when Puncak share price is trading at 25% discount to its cash position and totally ignore its other debtless asset, we should not buy in a hurry?

yeah, my order for Puncak at 2.79 was filled just now... Shocking! Hopefully will begin to turn tomorrow, sigh!

to meet shariah compliance, Puncak must NOT have more than 33% cash of which in conventional banking out of total asset (cash in Islamic account excluded in calculation.) In that sense, hng33's suggestion is not unreasonable... But I think the more important thing right now is to have Puncak announcing a date and amount to be paid out as special dividend!

Puncak has 1.7 - 1.9 billions CASH right now, depending on the warrants/sukuk to be converted, translating into 3.60 - 4.05 CASH per share. But then, anal-ysts propagating 2.90 CASH per share and should include a 5%-10% discount due to losses in O&G business.

Before anyone trying to suggest the cash in ONLY 2.90/share, could you kindly do some analysis on Puncak's latest quarter report before saying anything?!? It's annoying when one doesn't even attempt to conduct some basic homework and still claims to know everything...

What's more, after special dividend, Puncak shall still has 1.2 - 1.4 billions CASH, and assuming a modest interest rate of 3% per annum, the interests received itself will be 36 - 42 millions, more than enough to cover the losses in o&g industry. Frankly, totally has 0 idea why there is a need to put a discount on this CASH!

A recent ECOWORLD purchase of land of almost 1 million per acres in Kuala Selangor shall suggest Puncak has a minimum 280 millions worth of land convertible into property development given its landbank there of 280 acres, translating into 0.50 - 0.60 cash equivalent per share to Puncak. Even by developing this piece of land itself will easily take Puncak a busy 10 years property development opportunity without having to source a different business. When ECOWORLD purchased the land, ECOWORLD share price rises, while Puncak's landbank there is ignored... What to say, either Rozali has forgotten about his small shareholders or Rozali's reputation is really bad in the investment community to deserve the bashing!

hng33, I know, but your holding somehow is a reassuring news to me, haha... I actually bought some warrants yesterday, but not as brave like you, buying call warrants