market sentiment is very weak - mainly due to 1MDB, low world oil price, political instability, USA market data is improving, weak economy....hence, weak share price...
use this opportunity to buy more .....prepare for the upturn

Hi all;
Actually, Mr Koon's article is quite insightful. But then, i need to highlight 2 points:

"It looks like the Board of directors does not know that there is already an oversupply of properties in the market and they do not seem to realize that it will take about 7 years to complete the development of the land before they can see any profit."

(1): Oversupply of properties in the market: There is a shortage of affordable housing in the market. If your counter is like Matrix Concept whereby the price per square feet is at RM7 and they are able to sell at RM40 to RM45 per square feet, then there is nothing to fear. In fact, Matrix Concept is reporting positive operating cash flows every quarter. Actually, now is the best time to buy property counters that have huge tracts of landbank (better still; if they bought it at dirt cheap prices last time). Here, the developers can build their "bread-and-butter" affordable housing to weather through this period of property slowdown.

(2): Takes 7 years to complete the development of the land before they can see any profit: Normally, developers will develop the land by phases and then recognise progressive billings based on percentage of completion on that particular project. Hence, developers will book in the profits throughout the lifetime of the projects. Hence, developers do not need to wait until the end of 7 years to start recognising profits.

In addition, about the pre-sold properties: I concur with Mr Koon that if the condominium was recently launched and if the take up rate is poor, then the developers will be in deep trouble. This is because upon completion of the condominium, there is no buyers and there will be a build up of inventories. This will create a liquidity crunch because the monies are tied up with inventories and to make matters worst, the developers need to continually service the bank loans.

However, if the pre-sold properties has hit about 50% to 60% of the project's GDV, the developer need not fear because they have kind of like break even.

Why the operating expenses spike up comparing quarter to quarter and year to year?

Hi guys, just being skeptical because i am unable to connect the unbilled sales of $667M versus the dismay sales of $27.8M in Q4'14.

Mgmt states that the unbilled sales is $667M ~ which i believe they have accumulated during FY'15. My basis for this assumption is that management states the Group has achieved total sales of RM707 million for FY2015.

The question now is why they don't recognise a portion of this unbilled sales in Q4'14? If we assume that on average (give and take), all the projects is about 40% completed during Q4'14, then we should be seeing more sales being recognised than $27.8M during Q4'14.

This leads me to believe that on average, the projects are only at its infancy stage ~ whereby the % of completion is somewhere between 10% to 20% completed. Therefore, SymLife is unable to recognise a bigger portion of this unbilled sales of $667M during Q4'14.

If this is the case, this points to:
(1): Possible weaknesses in the execution of projects by SymLife (this is independent of sales). The speed of construction and project deliverable is independent of sales. Here, the more i build, the higher is my percentage of completion. And the higher sales revenue that i can recognise from the unbilled sales of $667M.

Hence, it is possible that the percentage of completion of the projects during Q4'15 lies at the lower end of the spectrum (say about 10%) and this leads to lower recognition of the unbilled sales of $667M during Q4'14.

(2): or possibly the mix of projects that give rise to this impact? Maybe we have the front runners such as TWY and The Star Residences that contribute significantly to these unbilled sales and both projects are still at their infancy stage. Don't forget that Symphony Life has just awarded the piling job to EconPile for TWY and the piling work has just been completed for The Star Residences.

If that is the case, what happens to the rest of the projects (the ones which are more matured in their stage of completion)?

On first glance, the increase in inventories from:
FY2014: $7.6M to
FY2015: $53.6M
seems worrying because it indicate poor sales/ take up rate on SymLife's completed projects. However, on a more positive note, it is highly likely that the increase in the inventories:
is mainly due to Desiran Bayu whereby it is SymLife's "First Build, Then Sell" concept. Hence, this increase in inventories may not be the case of poor take up rate from its completed projects.

Desiran Bayu, a jointly developed project, is Symlife's first Build Then Sell project comprising low density development with only 70 units of superlink terrace houses in Sri Rampai area of Kuala Lumpur with a projected GDV of RM110 million. Symlife's entitlement is 48 units with a GDV of RM80 million. Todate, the project has achieved a take-up rate of more than 50%.

Hence, RM80.0M x 50% take up rate - leaving behind RM40.0M. Hence, the rest of RM53.6M - RM40.0M = RM13.6M maybe attributable to other projects which have been completed but no takers.

Hence, after reconciliation to take out Desiran Bayu. Here, the increase in inventories is still acceptable from (taking out Desiran Bayu):
FY2014: $7.6M to
FY2015: $13.6M
in view of the poor property market.

Hopefully, some one can advice me about the disconnect between the quarterly sales of $27.8M versus the unbilled sales of $667M.

My case is per below.

Thank you all for your invaluable feedback. By the way - what does it mean by the following?

The Board is pleased to announce that for FY2015, the Group has achieved total sales of RM707 million, (including our 50%
share in Star Residences) which represents a 233% increase from the previous year's sales of RM212 million despite the subdued
property market.

Problem is - i cannot find the RM707M sales in the quarterly results.

about the dividend part, i don't think they can declare good dividend this year
simply because they are cash strapped.

From their cash flows statement:

O/B cash and bank $146M (start of FY14)
Negative operating cash flows ($75.9M) - increases in property development costs and slow down in actual billed sales
Positive investing cash flows $14.5M - mainly due to disposal of non-core businesses
Positive Financing cash flows $21.0M - increase in bank borrowings
C/B cash and bank $105.6M (close of FY14)

It seems the slowdown in property market has negatively impacted on their operating cash flows and this has resulted in their cash and bank balances to drop year on year.

i don't quite understand this statement:

The Board is pleased to announce that for FY2015, the Group has achieved total sales of RM707 million, (including our 50% share in Star Residences) which represents a 233% increase from the previous year's sales of RM212 million despite the subdued property market.

I cannot find this in the numbers for the quarterly results...

i know this is a stupid question - but can anyone explain what is unbilled sales?

i mean the detailed / in depth definition of unbilled sales...

why is the current quarter profit is only RM27.8M (Mar'15) which is a significant drop compared to RM94.6M the previous quarter (31st Mar'14)?

Quarterly results gonna be announced today...hopefully, it is going to be good news...

@ Apini,
You are right. Apart from Capital 21, we also have the Prima housing in Cyberjaya that Gadang is a party to.

@ Darren Liew, what do you think about Global Oriental Berhad? It is also a property developer and the story is quite similar to SymLife - that it has about 350 acres of land at Batu Kawan - bought at low prices and now the land price has appreciated many folds.

In addition, it is currently completing the shopping center - Da'mein and in the process of developing Pavillion Embassy at Jalan Ampang. it has very close connection with Malton.

Both sifu icon8888 and James70 has written about Global Oriental Berhad and have holdings in the company.

@ Darren Liew, thanks for your input...This is good to know.

By the way - what do you think of Datuk Azman Yahya's salary of RM4.0M?

It is quite high though...i would rather if he owns more shares and draws a more modest salary of RM1.0M.

This way - he will be motivated to work harder to enhance share holders value which indirectly benefit himself. I would rather if he took this route than paying a big fat paycheck to himself.

@ abang apini, my greatest hope is the share price stays at RM1.45 until 28th next month....then, i can load more of Gadang @ RM1.45....hehehe

Hi Darren Liew, just a heads up. Do not forget that the Director ~ Tan Sri Azman Yahya is actually a crony to Najib. What is going to happen to SymLife when Najib got kicked out?

A cup, B Cup, C Cup, D Cup? What size is your breast cup?

What is his real name? Can check out from Gadang analysis of shareholdings
..

wow abang Apini,,
Are you serious? That ColdEye was just a newspaper reporter and he made a few hundred millions in the share market as a value investor??? Or you are just kidding and pulling our legs?

mind to share your research here?

@ Darren Liew... I think you pick up that information RM500M from Bones blog. Howevee., the RM500.0M is referring to FY2014...NOT FY2015

Whatever it is...we will know this Thursday...

nope...just that my ship comes in on every 28th...that's all

Mmm...not quite sure about RM500M unbilled sales...until I see the quarterly results of RM500.0M,
...then, i will celebrate....

Well...let us wait until 28th next month...and I will load one more lorry at RM1.45...damn...hopefully, the price stays at RM 1.45 and don't move...

damn....one of those days when you think you are happy buying at RM1.53 - but then, market give you a better discount at RM1.48....unexpected...fate...fate...fate...(banging on the keyboard)

shit...i have no money to buy....

Hi Darren Liew, does the EPS 25.3 sen comes purely from operating activities or from disposal of non core assets ? What will be the EPS after reconciling for profits purely from operating activities?

Conserve ammo... Market is going to give one big cheap sales...known as 1Malaysia Development Board...hahaha...

Hi Darren Liew, thank you so much for sharing...well...let us keep on exchanging information .... will be looking forward for next week when SymLife released its 4th Quarter results.

@ Darren Liew, thanks for sharing. Just asking, why do you think SymLife is anxious to start off developing their Sungai Long land?

Hopefully, you are able to correct me on the above...

@ Darren Liew... We need to differentiate between facts versus opinion...
Facts = based on verifiable information such as annual report / market price of land...
Opinions = deriving a conclusion based on facts

It is a fact that in the chairman message in last year annual report by Datuk Azman Yahya that he mentioned the property market is getting soft. He add that the market is expected to return to normal during 2015...but in fact...it does not.

Now, in the latest quarterly report, it was mentioned they are looking to build affordable housing. The question is that whether Symlife is capable to add one more affordable housing project to its list? there are already 7 projects in the works now and 3 upcoming projects in the pipeline. All these 10 projects are focussed on the high end segment - the segment that is hardly hit by this property market slowdown. Hence, my opinion is that datuk misread the market.

He tried to change course but it is a bit too late... He tries to focus on affordable housing but then his plate is full because he got 10 projects already.....

seems like bad market timing from SymLife...focusing on high end segment whilst the whole market now is focusing on affordable housing...but in their latest quarterly reports, they are saying they are going to shift to affordable housing - but until now, batang hidung pun tak nampak?

Wah...it seems like we have got a lot of "Cheong Stars" kakis / brothers in this forum....all enjoy to curi makan...hehehe.... Wife / girlfriend know or not? Hahaha....

But honestly, today really enjoy curi makan @ RM1.53... Really kenyang....

@ apini, the window of opportunity is now wide open for you to "curi makan" or "tambah makan".
I think it is going to breach the RM1.50 holding line...

hahaha...curi makan @ RM1.53....
Gadang...enak, lazat, berkhasiat, kenyang...
nyum nyum....

@ Darren Liew, well... Buying at this price RMO.85 will give you a huge a margin of safety. Despite what is being said here, the future brings with it an element of uncertainty and this margin of safety will mitigate this risk.

wow apini, you are a very big kaki.....

SymLife is quite steady - overall KLCI drops - but then, still holding ground at RM0.84 to RM0.85...

Well...this is my thinking:
Let us take a look at Mitra - the so called Gadang's better half. Mitra is also free falling...i believe alot of people took a gamble on the upcoming 11th Malaysia Plan and hoping that the government will hand out lots of construction jobs...but then, are grossly disappointed. These speculators have already jump boat - via unloading Gadang's shares.

Also, don't forget that Gadang has risen over the past few days. Now, if you factor in the T+3 impact (which is due tomorrow), you will see Gadang dropping to RM1.51 (and possibly below).

Hence, RM1.51 is plausible.

Now, is the best time for me to do bottom fishing....placed buy call at RM1.51...i maybe wrong...but i am definitely a very patient guy - waiting to "curi makan" at the side line...

RM1.50 tomorrow is plausible

what political issue? Najib kena tendang keluar?

don't forget - tomorrow is T+3/ T+4 liaw...will experience a sharp drop

this is syndicate play liaw
Conspiracy

patience...it will drop until RM1.50- - where i patiently await and collects...

Besok...akan turun RM1.50....masa untuk pancing ikan....

@ Darren Liew, the Sungai Long land is only at 412 acres according to the latest 2014 Annual Report.
Anyway, how big is a water treatment plant (in terms of acreage)?
I don't think the state government will resort to land grab.
SymLife maybe compensated via cash (tag to market price ~ maybe discount abit to give face to Selangor state government) or land swaps.

@Darren Liew, just asking...
Question 1:
When will selangor state government acquires the sungai long land?
Question 2:
How big of the land that they will acquire? Also, how will the state government going to compensate Symlife for that acquisition? Via land swap or via cash?
Will it be at prevailing market value?

@ Darren Liew,
For me, i will be quite happy if they can maintain previous year's dividend of 4 cents. Reason is that SymLife has been reporting negative operating cash flows for the past few quarters and this problem is made more acute by the weak property market especially the high end segment. Do not forget that SymLife is focusing alot on high end segment.