20170810 随笔乱写

国际形势口头上紧张，
但是人口传颂，大盘也不稳，
在88震荡日之后，
散户也日益谨慎起来。

钢铁股昨日几乎收最高，
所以人人期待今日继续。
开盘到10点之前，
4个长钢股成交值都破了200万。
这不是好现像， 代表很多人了结获利。
之后就且战且退，回到自己的基地去休息。
无它，空头军很凶，之好避避其峰。

有绰号老人的空头，出了票。
在场外边数钞票，
边哇哇大叫快卖啊，
我卖在XXXX。
真是了不起，很能赚的trader.

无论如何，大盘不佳，
外加空军英勇，只能择日再续。
文章结束之前，
看看中国长钢价，又更高了。
脑海中， 钢厂老板不停的在数钱，
未来几季可以多分一点股息吗?.

@paktua73 be happy to spend money, not need to worry about war.

耐心有了收获,恭喜大家.

恭喜大家.耐心守候.

Congratulation for all.

Congratulation for all.

Those customers who pay cash, make delivery first. Those with 30, 60 days terms, the day after tomorrow.

https://leoting81.blogspot.my/2017/08/7.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqZBM9OLSeY

no, majority are local sourced.

Overnight can smelt the scrap and form into billet then to rebar. But, Malaysia's scrap getting lesser and lesser.

My friend work in scrap industry told me, major scrap collectors keep phone him ask for scrap. Less than 10 metric tonnes also immediate send lorry over to collect.

中国19大的确将关停了很多京津冀的钢铁厂。

Those yet to decide can visit hardware shop first, ask the tauke how about the rebar/wire rod price.

Ssteel sapu most of the steel scrap in Prai area, ahead of Annjoo. Annjoo did import steel scrap rather than get fully local supplies.

不要吓我，RM3000/mt ？ i only predict max ASP RM2500/mt. If RM3000/mt , then quarter EPS for each player will be very high....

That will be excellent news for 2 high inventory players, Annjoo and Ssteel.

I guess no rebar from Indonesia but i saw some Indonesia Coils (Flat products) long long times ago.

@yeekarwai 95 those rumors are talking about Q2 performance. For me, it is lagging information. There is totally different story for Q3. Big profit is waiting ahead.

The title of "Steel manufacturers to challenge safeguard duty in court " should change to "Steel consumers to challenge safeguard duty in court ".....Anyhow, MITI will win the challenge due to "buy Malaysia first" policy, instead of import.

Local users still sleeping........the local price hike is not because of safeguard but due to China's steel price rocketing...even without safeguard, China local steel price is much higher than Malaysia.

I personally hope it can give us a PBT 100 millions on 3rd quarter

Simply extra 15% of profit margin of at least 600 millions revenue. This is very simple calculation.

@Stock Kingdom not recommend you publish the figure in the article. It is a bit sensitive.

@warmblood Ssteel is very active in steel scrap market from past few month until now. Employees keep busy for OT.....

Actually, if anyone want to know how busy the Amsteel in Bukit Raja. Just need to monitor how many days of Amsteel production. When Amsteel production during night time, you will see how smoky it is near the bukit raja tol.

@Edwardljhoo Amsteel main EAF is located in Bukit Raja Klang, Just next to new Masteel plant. Banting plant mainly for Megasteel blast furnace and hot roll coil . It do have some activities for long steel as well.

From our friend, Goh CL

those fund managers going mad.......

If you know the operation of rebar rolling mill, they will prefer to produce common size instead of small/non common size. It is used to save time of setting/roller changing time. Therefore, small size users have no choice, only able to buy common sizes while miller productivity increase significantly.

A next move and high dividend payment waiting ahead, if you realise this situation, it is happened 10 years ago.

@joetay lionind using local steel scrap as input material not iron ore. And steel scrap trade within 980-1030. Just wait and see how much the profit will all long steel counters did at 3rd quarter.

yes, already beat tis year highest price and still moving upward.

https://leoting81.blogspot.my/2017/07/7.html

@godhand i not sure what price will rebar peak since it is already skyrocketing at this moment. Once ASP breaking RM2400, then steel is like gold. If par to China local price + freight to Malaysia+ duty, the price will be closed to RM2500.

Steel Bar Price Update

Please be informed that
Effective 17/7/2017;
RM 2160/mt - Y16 to Y32
RM 2310/mt - Y10, Y12, Y40 & R10
RM 2360/mt - R6, R8

Please be informed that Effecrive 18.07.17
RM 2180/mt - Y16 to Y32
RM 2230/mt - Y10,Y12,Y40 & R10
RM 2380/mt - R6,R8

Please be informed that
Effective 19/7/2017;
RM 2200/mt - Y16 to Y32
RM 2350/mt - Y10, Y12, Y40 & R10
RM 2400/mt - R6, R8

Please be informed that
Effective 20/7/2017;
RM 2220/mt - Y16 to Y32
RM 2370/mt - Y10, Y12, Y40 & R10
RM 2420/mt - R6, R8

[21/07 10:36] Phan/chrb: Please be informed that
Effective 21/7/2017;
RM 2260/mt - Y16 to Y32
RM 2410/mt - Y10, Y12, Y40 & R10
RM 2460/mt - R6, R8

[24/07 09:05] Phan/chrb: Please be informed that
Effective 24/7/2017;
RM 2280/mt - Y16 to Y32
RM 2430/mt - Y10, Y12, Y40 & R10
RM 2480/mt - R6, R8

[25/07 09:25] Phan/chrb: Please be informed that
Effective 25/7/2017;
RM 2300/mt - Y16 to Y32
RM 2450/mt - Y10, Y12, Y40 & R10
RM 2500/mt - R6, R8

[26/07 08:20] Phan/chrb: Please be informed bar price up effective date 26/07 Wednesday.
RM 2320 - Y16 to Y32
RM 2470 - Y10, Y12, Y40 & R10
RM 2520 - R6,R8,R12,R16
R12 no stock.

[27/07 09:13] Phan/chrb: Please be informed bar price up effective date 27/07 Thursday.
RM 2340- Y16 to Y32
RM 2490- Y10, Y12, Y40 & R10
RM 2540- R6,R8,R12,R16
R12 no stock.

[28/07 08:37] Phan/chrb: Please be informed bar price up effective date 28/07 Thursday.
RM 2360- Y16 to Y32
RM 2510- Y10, Y12, Y40 & R10
RM 2560- R6,R8,R12,R16
R12 no stock.

(Source) : Appreciate our Friend Goh CH

Steel Bar Price Update

Please be informed that
Effective 17/7/2017;
RM 2160/mt - Y16 to Y32
RM 2310/mt - Y10, Y12, Y40 & R10
RM 2360/mt - R6, R8

Please be informed that Effecrive 18.07.17
RM 2180/mt - Y16 to Y32
RM 2230/mt - Y10,Y12,Y40 & R10
RM 2380/mt - R6,R8

Please be informed that
Effective 19/7/2017;
RM 2200/mt - Y16 to Y32
RM 2350/mt - Y10, Y12, Y40 & R10
RM 2400/mt - R6, R8

Please be informed that
Effective 20/7/2017;
RM 2220/mt - Y16 to Y32
RM 2370/mt - Y10, Y12, Y40 & R10
RM 2420/mt - R6, R8

[21/07 10:36] Phan/chrb: Please be informed that
Effective 21/7/2017;
RM 2260/mt - Y16 to Y32
RM 2410/mt - Y10, Y12, Y40 & R10
RM 2460/mt - R6, R8

[24/07 09:05] Phan/chrb: Please be informed that
Effective 24/7/2017;
RM 2280/mt - Y16 to Y32
RM 2430/mt - Y10, Y12, Y40 & R10
RM 2480/mt - R6, R8

[25/07 09:25] Phan/chrb: Please be informed that
Effective 25/7/2017;
RM 2300/mt - Y16 to Y32
RM 2450/mt - Y10, Y12, Y40 & R10
RM 2500/mt - R6, R8

[26/07 08:20] Phan/chrb: Please be informed bar price up effective date 26/07 Wednesday.
RM 2320 - Y16 to Y32
RM 2470 - Y10, Y12, Y40 & R10
RM 2520 - R6,R8,R12,R16
R12 no stock.

[27/07 09:13] Phan/chrb: Please be informed bar price up effective date 27/07 Thursday.
RM 2340- Y16 to Y32
RM 2490- Y10, Y12, Y40 & R10
RM 2540- R6,R8,R12,R16
R12 no stock.

[28/07 08:37] Phan/chrb: Please be informed bar price up effective date 28/07 Thursday.
RM 2360- Y16 to Y32
RM 2510- Y10, Y12, Y40 & R10
RM 2560- R6,R8,R12,R16
R12 no stock.


(Source) : Appreciate our Friend Goh CH

1.70+1.30= 3.00

If you really from construction field, then you should know shortage or unable delivery of rebar, it will cause the delay of project, incur high cost to labor. And, rebar so cheap during 2nd quarter no place in order and now crying too expensive?

It is understood small project place in order very late but for not for Mega Project. Mega Project sometime place in order more than 6 months for miller to build up their raw materials.

For me, the big 4 will enjoy the sufficient orders from 3rd quarter till end of year. Which counter is better, depending on personal perspective.

With such high of selling price, if you are boss, will you ensure your plant continuously production. Moreover,the selling price would not go up without actual demand. Price go up always due to high order and stock level decrease.

Chine rebar price can get from Website. Malaysia rebar selling price is from millers.

Southern Steel Pricing got Morning/Afternoon session while Annjoo is normally daily basic or from time to time during updating.

https://leoting81.blogspot.my/2017/07/july-2017.html

In order words, Ssteel have enough stocks while Masteel, Amsteel & Annjoo restricted volume.

They already exist in markets for few decades, older than you and me. The competition will continues . At this moment, Ssteel have better position but not too far from Lionind.

@joetay If lionind as bad as your research, it should stay at RM0.30. But, why market give it RM1.17 at this moment? Without fundamental, it would not be able to retain the price rally.

Alliance steel need 1 year to go from now to launch. It is not easy to build up the supply network and client list. I predict Alliance Steel need to start with supplying billet to Lionind and Masteel .

Ssteel have highest revenue among 4 players, when its margin improve few percent, then it will have very good performance.

500 millions revenue is very high for Annjoo. Usually, it is range 350-500millions. Ultra performance only break 600millions.