Hehehehe managed to collect some at 7

Director SBB, you think cheap ah, must be real good profit ahead

Got to agree with @freetospeak


Supermax now pe is lesser than TG, Harta, Rubberex...more room to rise up now...can rise to pe 110 also no problem in short term.

Director spent 1.5m to enter at 7.60 per share last friday.
Think again, should you join the family?

With the report, i would say TP 12-14 achievable.
Do let me know who else is interested !

I got the supermax report over their specific earning and direction.
Let me know if you guys interested in it.

Good run by TG, personally i think that due to TP given by bank raised confident from major investor, and ppl are ready to go in with TG stock this morning.

Nevertheless, with previous record with Supermax, every TP given by bank is being hit/achieved within 2-3 days. This gave the bank to re-consider the TP before they sharing another new TP.

My kind of sharing, my TP for this counter would be rm13

I'm thinking that maybe tomorrow opening price wont be gap up, due to some panic selling (again from vaccine being "developed").

Any thoughts on this?

Hi guys, any comment on the latest issued warrant C-90?

baby is waking up now hehehe

Ah copied from YTH888;
Good man YTH888.

Hope this answered your question @ newbie_invest

Posted by YTH888 > May 28, 2020 10:27 AM | Report Abuse

This is my assumption, Supermax is achieving the same profit as per last quarter Jan- March 2020. The mass of Covid Cases is April onwards.

To be really careful, I consider profit is constant in the coming 3 quarters. Therefore, EPS from Jan- Dec 2020 is assumed to be 5.42 x 4 = 21.68.

At current price, forward PE of 26.48 (5.75 / 0.2168) is really cheap.

Price = Future PE
6.00 = 27
6.20 = 28.59
6.50 = 29.98
6.80 = 31.36
7.00 = 32.28
7.20 = 33.21
7.50 = 34.59
7.80 = 35.97
8.00 = 36.90
8.20 = 37.82
8.50 = 39.20
8.80 = 40.59

You can see what PE you want to exit or enter or what PE you are willing to pay.

Quarter ending 31 March 2020
EPS / NP Margin / ROE / past 4 qtr PE
Supermax 5.42 / 16.18% / 5.90% / 55.46
Kossan 5.07/ 10.67% / 4.37% / 46.87
Harta 3.43 / 14.97% / 4.58% / 77.86
Top Glove 4.52 / 9.43% / 2.92% / 79.53 (result out next month)

Average PE of all four glove player = 64.93
At PE 64.93, price should be RM14.

Let’s just discount the PE at 20% for all the hype and overvaluation = PE realistically should be 51.30 end of 4 quarters

PE x EPS 51.30 x 0.2168 = price should RM11.12

ASSUMPTION
1. EPS is constant for 3 quarters
2. Hype and overvaluation, therefore, discount 20% of the PE.

I believe my calculation is very conservative and cautious.

Therefore, smart investor are putting huge funds in Supermax now. As the time goes, they sell of 30%-50% to realise cash profit. Finally, leaving 50%-70% to run its course.

——————————————————————————————————————————-
More explanation
Let’s say you think that 20% discount of PE is not fair or you don’t feel safe.

You can discount the PE by 30-50% or more,

Discount
20%- PE 51/TP 11.12/ Profit 93%
25% - PE 48/ TP 10.40/ Profit 80%
30% - PE 45/ TP 9.75/ Profit 69%
40% - PE 38/ TP 8.23 / Profit 43%
50% - PE 32/ TP 6.93/ Profit 20%

This is how they come out with your Target price.

That is why I think big funds will come in and happily make 20% profit.

I think PE 32 for a glove defensive stock during pandemic is an absolute bargain!

Also, you must remember that I discounted the current average PE of all the top 4 glove shares by 50% just in case, you think that it is overvalued. Not need for me to check the Weighted average for the whole glove industry.

I think I am beyond conservative and ambitious. PE discounted by 50%, you don’t feel safe, I don’t know what to say.



——————————————————————————————————————————-


Let’s all be logical

We all know the result for quarter ending March 2020

Market Capitalization / Profit March 2020/ Benchmark to Harta
Supermax 8733 Mill/ 71,056 Mil / 61%
Harta 36,762 Mill /115,579 Mil/ 100%
Kossan 11,344 Mil/ 64,903 Mil / 53%
We cannot count top glove because we don’t know the result

Market cap detemines How much the company should be sold for.

Supermax achieve 61% of Harta Earnings in the last quarter
Kossan achieve 53% of Harta Earnings.

Market capitalization for Supermax should be 61% of Harta at 36,762 mil x 61%= 22,424 Mil

Now market cap supermax is 8733 Mil. The variance between supermax market cap now and target market cap is 22,424 Mil- 8733 Mil = 13691 Mil

Let’s calculate to price
The formula to calculate price is market capitalization divided by number of outstanding share.

22,424 Mil / 1360 Mil share= RM16.48

————————————————————————
Overvaluation and hype

Let’s be very safe and conservative and for any under foreseen circumstances, Let’s discount.

Price should be after:
Discount 20% = RM13.19
Discount 30% = RM 11.53
Discount 40% = RM 9.88
Discount 50% = RM 8.24


————————————————————————
Logically earning determines how much the company’s should be worth.

If I bought a business that makes 200k a year, Valued at RM1 MIL

Let’s say I made the business make 400k, I should sell My business for RM2 mil.

Would you sell a business that made 400k for one mill, you wouldn’t.
—————-l———————————————————-

There’s a big gap with How much harta is worth and supermax is worth.

Almost 4.2 times the value, when supermax achieve 61% of Harta’s earning.

Based on this, either Harta has to be worth 16B or Supermax has to be worth 8B

Or harta worth 36B and supermax worth 16B.

Can Harta drop a bit and Supermax come up and meet in the middle?

Bought supermax about a week + ago at 4.37.
Love this counter; topping up tomorrow!

Based on the QR earning, obviously supermx is undervalue.
Next TP 9!

limit up today? We hope for the best !

Look it as mid-long term.
If you enter at a good entry price, you got nothing to lose.

If drop, top up extra

Rm5.5 very high resistance :(

TP should raised further by the banks.
Banks no chance enter is it?
0.13 bro..... why....

With that excellent and good qr result, i dont see any reason it cant break 5.

All the best to supermax heheh

I wonder where is joyvest. That fella keep sabo glove on and off.

Congratulations to everyone holding Supermx!

Heng!

Wait for tomorrow after the newspaper put it out big big.
Uncle aunties sure keksam

@kfliau
Today result release

@amateurJR
If not mistaken qtr result out today afternoon

Aite thank you!

Guys, anyone know when is the QR exact release date?
Thursday ke?

some people turn their comments faster than our minister U turn.

heheheh.

@iswara
If 3.9, i think it would be fair to for to further collect, as vaccine is not that quick to be developed in short period of time.

Yesterday surge of dj and trump voice cause alot of panic selling, as most of seller thinks that vaccine is releasing soon.

My 2cent of opinion

Sabar, everyone here is to make money

Company fundamental is good....

Most probably close at red, -few cents today, then tomorrow go up up.
Vaccine ain't that easy to develop, you think go beach play sand ah?

Oil future looking just fine with countries lifting up restriction.
People taking profit for Raya I guess, any comments?

well said

Director selling to take profit ma.
Foresee uptrend in 1 month time