lol, for the Affin analyst he probably wants publicity and media coverage. now most media reports are always quoting Affin because that's the most bearish report, and journalists like to quote the extreme to get their point across, which is the same old point that O&G stocks are under pressure bla bla bla.

Lol with the panic selling going on last week, I'd say he's already achieved his objective. When the quarterly results announce like 1bn 2bn 3bn impairment loss he can always say that he's right because he said "up to" RM8.5bn to cover his ass.

@anzo888 haha spot on.

analysts also cari makan only. Insights, conviction call, bullshit, cons...whatever you name it lol.

Affin Hwang's analyst is a genius for pitching RM0.40 actually.

Everyone in the market from hedge fund managers to EPF to journalists to us in this forum has RM0.40 stuck in their mind now lol.

Affin's RM0.40 comes from RM8.5bn impairment + 0.6x P/B to remaining 2019E book (i.e. another 40% discount) if you read his report.

lol seems like the 0.43 TP is approaching fast with the debt spooks

Affin report analyst Tan Jianyuan takes a very "accountant" approach in valuation, he's an ACCA lol.

The one skill that accountants are best at is being bearish and pessimistic.

Without him I couldn't have entered at below RM0.50 lol.

https://themalaysianreserve.com/2018/03/12/where-is-the-bottom-for-sapura-energys-shares-despite-rising-oil-prices/

another somewhat bearish report

@Ekkram haha fingers crossed. will probably cut loss at 0.43 if we get there. cheers.

@Ekkram

Haha, in that case I'm probably the outlier. No paper loss yet but recently entered at 0.465 - 0.47, 1.2m shares so far. While it's difficult to predict what is the bottom, one thing true about this counter is its high volatility with sudden strong shifts/reversal in sentiments historically.

Whilst I didn't invest previously, I did note that there was a time when the share price went down to RM1.3x, and rebounded to RM2.x shortly. A more recent one is in Dec 2017 - Jan 2018, when share price was hammered down to RM0.6x, and rebounded back to RM0.9x.

My view is that whilst this is (possibly) a high manipulated counter by institutional funds, there is a potential for very large gains in a very short amount of time, whether it's due to pump and dump strategies or not.

It's difficult to time the market, but generally, I like to enter when analysts and media reports like the edge and the star are all bearish. It's an unsettling feeling trying to catch the bottom, but again, no risk no returns.

Poised for rebound.
EPF has historically been quite contrarian - when bad news is all over the media, they tend to buy.
Not surprising to breach RM0.50 by the end of this week.
and hey, even at that level, sapura is still a steal.

way oversold. i bought 1m shares at 0.47

90c+ - needs full acceptance by kraken and olombendo.
Otherwise - buy at 0.80 - 0.81, sell at 0.87-0.88 rinse and repeat

Lol i'm topping up everyday please sell more to me

haha sell sell sell sell sell sell sell

share price = reflection of fundamentals + sentiment.

the share price has been dominated by bearish-skewed sentiment for a long long time, especially by the retail peeps (gradually trending down with low volume without fresh leads).

any upwards correction will mostly require a push from institutional investors.

I think the company's investor relations team should put in more thoughts and effort to communicate and update the investors more frequently on the progress made by the company, especially Kraken and Olombendo.

It's also funny that in the recent CIMB report where Armada participated in the 10th Annual Corporate Day and spoke to >30 fund managers about the progress made, but no official announcement is made.

I think the Securities Commission should consider investigating Armada for the possible selective disclosure of material non-public information only to the institutional investors.

but as usual, armada share price continues to go down without fresh announcements.

bulls make money, bears make money and pigs get slaughtered.

enquest shares is up another 10% today.

been up from GBP25 in Dec to GBP44 today, about +80% in view of successful kraken production ramp up and higher oil price.

fantastic someone selling hard to drop the price from 88 cents to 86 cents

please tank the stock back down to below 80 cents before the upcoming quarterly announcement or kraken/olombendo announcements for a creamy entry price

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/01/15/reality-check-for-og-players/

hopefully more people will sell after reading this and lower the entry price

bought another 200k shares today

lol, this counter has turned boring and speculators are recycling capital elsewhere.

armada tends drop gradually with low volume when there's no fresh leads and oil price is range bound.

it's really slow and painful and a good test of your patience lol

haha, if your holding period is at least 6 months, yes.

if it's 6 hours...maybe not...

i bought 500,000

lol that's the signal to buy more.

$ can only be made when we are brave enough to capitalize on the irrationality of others

lol, haven't seen a more retarded analogy in quite a while.

Clap clap shan't comment further.

Posted by speakup > Jan 10, 2018 05:44 PM | Report Abuse

example, if u are fruit seller sell 90% rambutan 10% durian. even if durian price shoot up 50%, you are not going to be 50% richer cos durian is only 10% of your fruits you sold! understand?

when oil price was at US$35, sapura was at RM1.3
when oil price is at US$70, sapura is now RM0.905

the mispricing is so obvious.

take action now.

Profit taking

Relax and hold.

It's a profitable company with little impairment risks with oil price in the range of US$65-70.

Wait for:

Next quarterly results - boom
Olombendo full acceptance - boom boom
Kraken full acceptance - boom boom boom
TGT1 extension, Armada Claire redeployment + US$280m court claim - boom boom boom boom

classic example of market being overly bearish in the short term and overselling a stock

this is sapura energy we're talking about one of the largest integrated O&G player in malaysia

debt too high (suddenly this seems to be a huge problem because if a quarterly loss)? banks will just restructure and backload principle payment - sapura energy is too big to fail

sapura energy will continue to win contracts every now and then - you really can't predict when they will announce - so the best bet is to hold till it goes back above RM1. it won't take long.

3 key catalysts to look out for:

1) Quarterly results end Nov 2017
2) OPEC Vienna meeting output cut decision end Nov 2017
3) Kraken - improvement in production volume / full acceptance

Hold on for the ride to 0.90 - 1.00.

Congrats to those who persisted and held on / bought more. Lots more runway to rally, next 2 key catalysts will be:

1) Q2 2017 results end Aug
2) Full acceptance of Kraken after passing audit sometime in Sept

Much needed catalyst to correct the under valuation. hope the momentum keeps with a good Q2 results in 2 weeks.

Congrats!

They use SOTP method too, NPV (WACC 8.5%) for both FPSO and T&I segment, and 0.2x P/B for OSV segment.

FPSO: NPV, WACC of 8.5%, EV = RM13,492m
OSV: 0.2x P/B, EV = RM120m
T&I, NPV, WACC of 8.5%, EV = RM356m

Total EV = RM13,969m
Net Debt = RM10,030m
Total Equity Value = RM3,938m
Shares outstanding = 5,866m

Implied Target Price = RM0.67

Personally think the above is bullshit - analyst probably just backed-out the WACC based on a gut TP which is very sentiment based for O&G counters now.

Buy before they announce 2Q results end of this month.

From CLSA Report (7 Aug):

We are looking for 2Q core EBITDA of RM302m, +41% QoQ +105% YoY, driven at the FPSO end through a full quarter’s contribution of Olombendo FPSO and at the OMS segment with 8 new short-term OSV contracts clinched in 1Q coupled with the Armada Installer busy at the Caspian with our utilisation estimate of 80% this year likely to be met as it comes out of winter.

However, do note that CLSA is calling a sell with TP of RM0.67 which to me seems like a sentiment call rather than a fundamentals call.

I bought at 0.695 too!

All the more reason to buy on irrational selling by impatient and fidgety investors.

0.73 - 0.74 is a bargain, the next 2 key catalysts will be:

1) Q2 results by end August (expected to be better than Q1)
2) Kraken audit / final acceptance by September - full revenue recognition to begin

Buy and hold!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/06/10/enquest-looks-cut-debt-700m-year-new-field/

10 JUNE 2017 • 7:34PM

One of the North Sea’s largest new oil fields will begin pumping its first oil within weeks, giving its small-cap operator a $700m (£549m) a year boon.

Production at the Kraken field in the East Shetland basin could begin within days to bring a significant reversal of fortunes for EnQuest, which survived a major debt refinancing late last year.

The project will drive down its breakeven cost for producing oil in the UK to between $21 and $25 a barrel, meaning even at $50-a-barrel market prices the group will be able to start chipping away at its debt pile.

CIMB on Armada Kraken: Financial impact of the delay in delivery and the delay in achieving first
oil.

As a result of the delay in delivery of more than one year, BAB is obligated
under the terms of the contract to pay the maximum liquidated ascertained
damages (LAD) of US$20m to EnQuest. This was booked into BAB’s financial
accounts during 2Q16.

In addition, BAB agreed to refund US$65m in advance payments to EnQuest to
secure a deferment of the first oil date to 1 February 2017, with a backstop
date of 1 April 2017. Of the total US$65m, US$38m is payable between
February 2017 and February 2018, with US$27m to be paid over two years
commencing three months after first production. Over the course of the
conversion of the FPSO vessel, EnQuest had paid advances totalling
US$100m to BAB, representing 10% of the capex cost of US$1bn, of which
US$65m will be refunded.
In 4Q16, BAB estimated that it will likely miss the first oil backstop date of 1
April 2017. Hence, it made US$22.7m in provision for ‘supplementary
payments’, representing estimated compensation to be paid to EnQuest up to
15 July 2017.

During BAB’s 1Q17 results conference call with analysts, BAB said that it is
“very confident” that it will be able to achieve first oil by the end of June; its
internal target is for 15 June. If BAB achieves first oil earlier than 15 July, there
is a possibility that it may write back part of this US$22.7m provision for
‘supplementary payments’. For instance, if BAB achieves first oil on 15 June,
we estimate that BAB will be able to write back US$7.5m in provisions.
Conversely, the ongoing negotiations with EnQuest have been more
complicated, and more multi-faceted, than expected. Hence, in 1Q17, BAB made additional unquantified provisions for ‘supplementary payments’, and
there is some possibility of even more provisions, depending on the outcome of
the currently-ongoing negotiations, even if the Armada Kraken achieves first oil
before 15 July.

Nevertheless, we believe that a large portion of the ‘supplementary payments’
has been accounted for. In our financial model, we have assumed that no
further provisions are necessary, and that BAB will pay US$22.7m in
compensatory ‘supplementary payments’ during FY17F to EnQuest.
As a result of the delays in commencing the contract, and the resultant
US$20m LAD, US$65m refund of advances, and US$22.7m provision for
‘supplementary payments’, we estimate that the FPSO Armada Kraken’s IRR
during its 8-year firm period will fall from the original target of 11%, to below 8%.
This is still likely to be above our 5% estimate of BAB’s WACC, but the BAB’s
future financial returns from the FPSO are diminished. The total BBC receipts
of US$1,300m over the 8-year firm period are more than enough to cover debt
principal repayment and interest costs of slightly more than US$800m. Hence,
from a cashflow perspective, BAB remains in a net positive position.
While EnQuest has the contractual right to terminate the charter for the FPSO
for missing its first oil backstop date, it is rather unlikely for EnQuest to do so,
since the production from the Kraken field is a significant chunk of EnQuest’s
market value and is a cornerstone of its future prospects. In our financial model
and valuation for BAB, we have assumed that the charter contract will not be
terminated by EnQuest.

Contract expected to commence 3-6 months after first oil
After the FPSO Armada Kraken achieves first oil, the vessel will need to
undergo acceptance testing by the client, EnQuest. This process typically takes
three months to complete, but in the North Sea’s harsh conditions, weatherrelated
factors could push the process to as long as six months.
Upon acceptance, the firm 8-year charter period will commence, and BAB will
begin receiving US$445,000/day in BBC hire. In our financial model, we have
assumed that the Kraken’s firm period will commence from 1 January 2018.

it's very dangerous to spread rumours / insider information, khatulistiwa1234. The SC can track down your ip address and location and arrest you. Be careful....

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/06/08/cimb-resumes-coverage-on-bumi-armada-with-add-call/

“In future quarters, we expect a stream of progressively-better results, and positive newsflow in relation to its new projects – the Armada Olombendo, Kraken and Karapan Armada Sterling 3 – as they achieve final acceptance and begin their firm charter periods from 2H17 forecast.

“Bumi Armada is ‘very confident’ that the Kraken will achieve first oil before June 30, and
thus avoid further compensation provisions, with provision writebacks even possible,” CIMB said.

Enter before the big funds come else it will be too late.

Buy while oil price macro is affecting general sentiment on O&G stocks, last chance before kraken first oil expected announcement in a couple of weeks.

Cancellation is impossible - the client Enquest will go bankrupt without Kraken.

Let's assume we take your number of US$6m per month penalty to be true - that will be US$18m penalty if end June first oil is achieved (per Enquest guidance), counting from 1 Apr 2017.

Now there's 2 ways that Armada can pay this - either upfront or over a couple of years. Even with an upfront payment - Armada will still be in the black according to the net profit forecasts of US$60-80m for 2017 and US$100-150m in 2018 by various analysts.

Hence I wouldn't be too worried about it.

@nikicheong - good insights, as always.

I'd expect earnings growth to be exponential as we progress through the quarter. Hopefully the stronger cashflow deleverages Armada and allows the company to raise more financing to close new FPSO deals.

http://www.worldoil.com/news/2017/5/25/first-oil-expected-from-kraken-in-june-says-enquest-ceo

Congratulation to those who entered at 0.72/0.725 yesterday.

In a few week's time, congratulations to those who entered at 0.745/0.75 today.

Armada flash sale today. Best day to accumulate before first oil.

Kraken development on track to deliver first oil before the end of June 2017, with further excellent progress on drilling.

EnQuest CEO Amjad Bseisu said:

“EnQuest is on track to achieve first oil from Kraken before the end of June and to deliver on its production, unit opex and capex targets for 2017. Our strategic priorities continue to be increasing production by delivering on operational and development execution, whilst also continuing to reduce the operating cost base. First production from the Kraken development will give EnQuest its seventh operated hub and will mark a turning point in EnQuest’s progress from a period of heavy investment to one focused on cash generation and deleveraging the balance sheet."

http://www.enquest.com/media-centre/press-releases/2017/25-05-2017.aspx

Congratulations to all Armada shareholders payday has come.

Investors are waiting on the sidelines to wait for 3 things.

1) OPEC decision on production cut (25 May)
2) 1Q2017 Results (end May)
3) Kraken first oil announcement (till mid July)

I reckon the price came down a little as some investors get jittery about OPEC decision / 1Q2017 results - they don't want to take the risk.

This is one of the very few stocks with very clear earnings catalyst in the near term with low execution risk (i.e kraken first oil is just a matter of time) - contract is signed, financing is done, ship is built and delivered to location, just pending some checks at start up.

Compare this to many other stocks where earnings growth is conditioned upon just "securing contract" - no financing sealed, nothing built and yet priced expensively.