I topped up at 2.86. Last top up for now. Will only top up more under 2.75 after this.

True cruger..forgot about that hahaha

Haha i see cruger. Lets wait and see. I hope it will happen sooner than later. Thanks for the info.

RM is quite stable ahead of Fed. Dont count on AA correcting like previous times. Less volatility in RM now altho it is at this level due to steps by BNM.

Hahaha with monetisation and dividend payoff looming of course big funds want to buy in for dividend. Thats a good way to monetize their investment. For me personally if i dont get 3.50 then the 2nd best strategy is to hold for the divvy and wait for price recovery after that.

Waiting for the right moment to test rm3.

Looks like maybe profit taking ahead of Fed

Luckily manage to top up abit at 2.83 but was hoping to add abit more. Nvm la..i have enough loaded up. Selling definitely is more shallow now given time frame shortening to AAC. Small volume also can up so much. Not hard to move it now so i think 3.50 is very reasonable. Feeling good today after LCW win last night and now AA coming hehe

Welcome back to cindy..did you still hold AA now?

Wish i could meet all the good ppl here for some yam cha after we realize our gains in real life. Sifu Icon, feicsh, VG, cruger, RM, batu and other AA supporters.

@VG a very interesting thought there and indeed it could be true. If it is then there is one huge risk offloaded for AA and total risk for the company is very much lower. Thank you for sharing!
@feicsh very good returns for 1 year work. Your status as sifu is very much true.

AA is clearly on an uptrend but it doesnt mean everyday will be up and up. You must remember that it hit around 2.16 levels not too long ago and today closing is 2.83. That is almost a 25% run. If that is not an uptrend then I dont know what is. Along the way profit taking will take it back from its new highs which is very healthy leading up to the summit. More catalysts are coming and I sense that the profit taking is getting more shallow in volume as ppl hold their shares for AAC announcement and such. I am adding more shares personally as profit taking takes place. Got me some at 2.83 today. I'm reserving more bullets for 2.70 and 2.60 level if they come which I doubt.

supermx2 do you even own any shares now?

Im also hunting to top up more but FF can be agressive so any weakness might be short and shallow.

Now just left to figure out 3.30 or 3.50.

Hohoho...santa claus has come to town. I see a cruise in my immediate future.

AA downside risk is very very low fundamentally speaking. Sentiment wise of course silly things can always happen but even then the corporate action theyre taking are good steps to minimize these risks. Take care of the downside and the upside will take care of itself.

Nice lunch for a nice close at 2.81. Feel like engines and warming up.

Seems like price action in the morning trying to trigger sells but did not work well.

Now you have to wonder whether the final bid offfers are coming in staggered to AA or are they going to come in all at once in 26th or 27th march. If it is the former then is it fully sealed or would managment know of the bid?

Seems that we have indeed come to a point where those holding AA shares are not trading it due to pending AAC deal.

Maybe rm16+ mil for that last push thereabouts. Not too difficult.

Uptrend intact

Wooooow jumped from 2.64 to 2.70 on the close. IB buy back their shorts? Hahaha dumb dumb hold.

Wah wah whats this on opening and closing bids...

Contra and margin done with i suppose

Volume not too high since falling from 2.84. No buying support from big players and small operators play and retail margin call etc enough for this movement. No need pay much attention to it or speculate too much. Just leave it and wait for divvy.

You are comparing companies in HK vs malaysia and concluding PE based on that. Its not the right comparison. There is larger growth factor in malaysian business hence PE multiples tend to be higher in general. Also you must remember AA valuation is even more than that as it is a Asean/Asian business with even higher growth factor and to be listed in hkse rather than a HK business in a saturated HK industry listed in hkse.

Spy, airlines should be anywhere between 8-12x PE for fair valuation. What is AA PE now? I stand by my comment that double is easily achiveable. This does not even take into account multiple value hidden in AA that markets elsewhere may give a premium for such as its deep discount on large orderbook from vendors, asset discount on book, leading cost structure compared to its peers which gives it market advantage, market leadership in asean in network and route and most importantly potential growth ability into asean and asian market. Do not simply compare to airlines in saturated US market with established players which are on level playing field with one another in cost and where their room for growth is very small.

If AA was in hkse it could easily be double the price of now..

In medium and short term FF case, its not the stock that they dont like but i think its their aversion to the ringgit right now that makes them shy away to buying in. In local funds case, i think its AA volatility and industry that makes them averse to buying in more which in my opinion they are still slow to recognize that AA has left the 15 years ago age of unrational competition already and the coming capacity increase in 2H 17 wont be the same thing.

Dumb dumb hold has made me nothing but money in my 10 years as a fulltime trader. Never failed. Hahaha

If not mistaken the plan to list in hkse or nyse is a dual listing to unlock value of AA share valuation.

AA lack some buying support now. Usually it would be the short term FF that will buy up AA during this time but due to their aversion to the ringgit now i believe they are not in the market. Local funds are not supporting as well so its left to the small operators to play with retailers up and down. The only way for now to realize good gains seems to take the special divvy and wait for price to recover after that.

1. Thanks cruger for the link.
2. Market announcement on AAC after board goes over it so we can say late april or early may will be go go time. Perhaps before that some action in anticipation.
3. 1stqtr should be very good especially for philipines.
4. Indonesia, philipines are about to be the new thailand.
5. Alot of disposals to come.
6. Forex risk isnt too big of a concern afterall.
7. Core business doing well. Rask up, cask down.
8. Mohsin from Mbb and raymond from cimb really seem like good analysts in aviation.
9. Competition from added capacity doesnt seem to be as big of a concern as we can expect rask to go up and cask to go lower.

Some thoughts i have after listening to the conference call.

I dont foresee a selldown post earnings this time around because from 3qtr 16 results to 4th qtr 16 results its a 3 month wait and on top of that there was a worry of how higher oil and ringgit weakness was going to impact the earnings and so the sentiment was more bearish. This time its just 1 month to end of march when we may get some news on AAC and 2 months to AA board meet to decide on the buyer and these events are bullish events and so the underlying sentiment till those dates should be positive.

Short term consolidation to clear out the overbought position and punters taking profit. Uptrend still intact.

supersaiyan, i agree as its very diff to go toe to toe with AA and expect to win or even have any positive outcome as AA cost structure is extremely low. An all out war will just cause damage and losses and I think by now the market players have ample proof of that through the years...they are wiser now..

Also my personal opinion is that operationally AA will do alot better in 2017 than most analyst will predict. The so called 2nd half added capacity and price war will not materialize due to growth in passenger volume and lack of will on market players to engage in a price war. But of course i probably wont be holding that long anyways..

After march 27 i think AA will be alot better. Have to play the waiting game now. Nothing to do...will do nothing...except maybe go karaoke..

Going back to sleep. Wake me up when march ends..

I believe after overbought conditions clear up then it will be on better footing to trend higher. No more worries on forex issues to pin it down and just can look forwars to AAC...

Could be some punters bought on dividend play and expected it to be announced together with 4th qtr results but AA is still tight lipped on the AAC disposal so punters may have decided to sell off first.

Thank you to sifu Icon, valuegrowth, cruger, feicsh, amateurplayer and many more for being so diligent and kept us all in the know and calm throughout it all...may all your efforts be returned in good karma many folds.

I feel AA will go on a nice uptrend now starting with this 4th qtr results then followed by AAC and even listing in HKSE will add more to the rally. Will have to monitor the movement closely and sell well now...hehehe

Hello friends, it's been awhile. I purposely stayed away since CNY holidays so as to not get itchy fingers and sell my holdings. I am all in now and I agree with sifu Icon; previously I thought 3.30 was the highest aim but now I think 3.50 is very possible.

Incredible results!!!!

Aiya cindy why you worry again? Things are getting to party time already. PP is done so that means AAC is close behind and after cny i expect newsflow to slowly come in and 4th qtr results less than a month now. Now many BB are off on holidays so price wont move much and volume is low already. Go and enjoy yourself with cny and forget about AA for as long as you are celebrating.

Shorties...alot of shorties..

As per sifu icon advice..dumb dumb hold..dont want get down wrong station hahaha

Cindy what is your prediction today? Profit taking day?

I'm trying very hard not to have too much short term outlook on AA at this point because I don't want to tempt myself to do a dumb trade. I like the 6-8weeks timeline. I will watch AA from afar and hopefully not pay too much attention to it. In 6-8 weeks I hope to party with sifu Icon, VG, cruger, cindy, supersaiyan and RM.