Supermax2 maybe they use the tactic to buy at 3.05 and sell at 3.06? Smart right?

Yes supermx2 i guess they bought up is a trap also. Buy up use few million to trap your rm3k at that price.

That big Q at 3.05 is BB who can already smell the money from AAC. Price might drop more after this but they already dip their toes in the pool. Im sure they will add on the weakness and sell after AAC anmounce at near 3.50 and above. Retailers meanwhile are here talking about goreng and trap and this conspiracy and that conspirary theory.

Most analyst if not all updated TP already. Kenanga, MIDF, MQ around 4.00 level. Maybank and Nomura around 3.75 level. Cimb 3.50s and Pbb 3.19. Agreed with RM that analysts seeing past 1st Q weakness and looking at the bigger picture. After profit takers out in awhile it will start upward movement again.

Dayang suri its about fleet rejuvenation la. Need to sell old planes and get new planes and gives them a reason and method to declare special divvy which TF and KM im sure will like

Guys just to highlight again based on TF interview on bloomberg: AAC down to the nuts and bolts...bankers and lawyers working hard on it....definitely before end of the year.

They must really down to negotiating minute details. Feels close to me. The divvy abit later la but announcement first is what i want. It will be a frenzy.

@sjwee3, I agree with you that patience is key and there is no rush as price action and timing now suggests that price will be subdued for abit after results. BUT if you have 0 holdings now and AAC announcement comes out then you have no ticket on the train. Thats why I have a little now as not to miss the ride but will only buy in more in stages as price weakens. My entry now allow me to be more patient with further adding at best price.

supermx2 I dont think this forum can effect even abit of AA price as the market cap is much much too big and secondly I dont think TF knows you exist. You might be licking some old wounds from years ago so let me advice you, put your energy into getting better at trading and making money. You seem very young and life is long so you have alot of opportunity in the future to make money if you out your energy into beneficial things. Come here and do what you do doesnt hurt anyone wastes your time and resources so in a way you are losing further.

Aih still on P/BV must be..

hahaha

Sifu can share it here or just her valuation methods and earnings forecasts?

Sifu you serious? 1 sen? Need to revise ka? hahaha

Anybody can share if RHB revised target or stick? If stick I dont know what to say..

PAA made close to RM40mil profit too. No longer a drag. So you have MAA, TAA, PAA, AAC all powering profits now. IAA im not sure but if loss should be narrowed. AAI minimal loss too but both looks ok to turnaround soon. Dont forget once TAA consolidated as well soon they said may save up 10% on cost on streamlining operations which can mitigate the rise of staff cost on new remuneration package.

Startups like JAA, cambodia, viet and china will require capital outlay for sure but do not compare to PAA and IAA on startup cause I think the environment now is more conductive to their startup so losses with be minimized.

leslie, as long as the duty on imports are there I believe they will profit. Even if the next few quarter you get 3-4cents only on higher cost or squeezed margins then you can anualized 14cents EPS. Even at 10x PE is already 1.40. And thats half margin. If we say 5cents per qtr its 20cents and at 10x PE its rm2.00. And the import duties are for 3 years so I would say it is just beginning...dont focus on short term movement too much. Parkson will drag but there are signs of minimized loss and possible turning but this will remain erratic. Im sure they will do something..

I only keep a sharp eye on oil and RM. I believe 2017 should be ok and I read AA is 75% hedged anyways. RM should be better as our GDP and corporates are doing quite well and on sentiment its building up to election.

Sifu icon, I believe they are at the end stage negotiations that they narrowed it down to 2 of the strongest bids. Should be soon zero in the best one la then announce it. I feel they misjudged the nego timing as these things sometimes can be protracted cause involve 2 way communications.

Anyways with AAC and asset monetization coupled with record years I wouldnt buy either without these things as I do not like the volatility. Someone said AA price trend is 0% but now you have to factor in the special divvy and also record year profits. When is the last time they had special divvy and possibly 2 record years back to back with founder buying up 1bil worth of equity? Things can change....

One thing that I can is very interesting is that even with all the selling days, the buy % remained high. Those who sold definitely took profit as they collected very low and its only natural to realize your profits and not drag things out but having said that, the high buying % shows interest is as high as ever. This is a new leg with the same theme tho i.e AAC and bettering business.

Sad and surprised to see you go sifu Icon. Thanks for all the wisdom.

Completely expected, this was bound to happen. But I think it will stabilize soon. AAC will always support the price till the end. Business is healthy and results should continue to prove the price cheap. Now those short term traders and funds who are bearish types on oil will get out first. Let them go. I will add more when the time come accordingly.

Waiting for 2.91 for my 2nd round

BWC come back to report currency exchange?

I think this stock once clear the profit takers which could be quite abit la but easily touch 1.50 maybe even higher depending on their margin and ability to sustain 5sen or higher in the quarter.

Need EPF to sell only can see sub 1.60. They might just hold on tho. If thats the case I will come in down the road..

Wah sifu icon, you also HSL fan ka. Ive been waiting to get in again this stock sub 1.60 and as you said, we all knew this 1Q will be slow. But I believe 2Q onwards will pick up slowly so waiting patiently. The stock didnt react as I wanted yet but I think soon the selling may start.

RHB faster re-rate and bring in more ppl to push it up!!

As I suspected, punters that bought low will take profit. Need to overcome profit taking to move higher. I bought abit high at the open 1.19. Will avg down one more time and hold. This counter really will have a good 2-3 year run as long as govt anti dumping duty stay on track..

Hope doesnt follow Ann Joo profit taking pattern but having said that, it did close low today vs Ann Joo high before results out so maybe it will run even more before profit taking.

*abit concerned

Hand was itchy to grab some today but was concerned on Parkson. Tomorrow I try get some under 1.20.Altho still abit on iron ore prices for next quarter.

Also I dont need to cut loss on stocks. I just cut profit if needed. If lost I will average down and add more until my average is low. I can average down AA as much as I need...thats how I never lose. I always do this because I never touch stocks that is not fundamentally strong. Any stocks I trade always with great long term prospects.

Supermx2, a guy who bought 2.80 and sold 2.81 is calling me naive? I wont bother with you. Up or down I dont care. Up-I have alot already. Down-I will add alot more in batches. Either way Im happy and happy to have already made alot in AA so far.

I hope BB can appreciate the sudden RM weakness that dragged Q1. Hopefully they will focus on the guided prospects of better 2017 than 2016 and AAC and cost savings via consolidation. I think it can go either way but personally I will add every chance I get in stages.

1.PAA seems to be the outperdormer. RASK increase and CASK down despite oil.
2.Q2 TAA will be consolidated.
3.Cost overall may go down 10% after Asean consolidation due to streamline in operations.
4.AAC definitely in final stages and will conclude soon.
5.Special divvy every 2 years.
All from the article on theedge.

Very dissapointed with ancillary as well. Not where I thought it would be. Infact theres a drop in ancilary for AAI and TAA.

IAA and PAA is considered subsidary now due to the BLA agreeement. They have more control now. For me personally i love the prospects goj g forward but Q1 was indeed weak. TAA was weak, operating numbers are weak and cost is higher especially staff without considering oil. Based on Q1 results, it wont be good in the eyes of BB but forward propects is good. High chance 2017 is better than 2016 and special divvys still on. So up or down tomorrow it depends on how BB weigh holding on weaker core 1Q numbers vs good prospects going forward. Profit taking may occur mildly. For me, its an add.

No....cost on staff and oil was up irregardless of consolidation. They have a new rumeneration package fron dec 16. Staff cost is ballooned even when compared to the proforma 1Q 16. This is abit a concern as it is a real cost increase and not due to consolidation

I agree up or down not important based on Q1. Most important is management believe in prospects that 2017 will be better than 2016. Plus AAC yet to come, expedia yet to come, pilot academy yet to come. AA is on course for Rm4+. If tomorrow headlines stick to Rm300mil operating profit and analysts adjust their numbers based on operating profits then so be it. I like the prospects and i will collect more.

Operating numbers ok not great. Other incomes smooth it out as I predicted. Careful analysts will stick to operating numbers. But rest of the year should be spectacular. On prospects they said better than 2016 so thats the main cheer for me..not the 600mil net.

Instead of guessing I will say that 1Q will be softer due to RM but other forex gains will smooth it over. Q2 much better as long as load stays up as RM will be kinder. Q3 and Q4 should be strong as I forecast RM to keep strengthening ahead of election, load should be good although capacity increase and margins will do alright because I believe RASK will be boosted by ancillary and CASK will be lower due to utilization increase as well as Malindo and Mas will be more in their own league.

Anyways, the more I look at AA, the more I like it for the next 2-3 years. Since I have made good money from it already, this 2nd round of investment I will go in even bigger and will consider to keep even longer. I really believe the returns for AA in the next 3 years will be very rewarding especially with all the asset realizations and special dividends. Operating wise I believe they will do well if oil keeps low. If oil creeps up above $70 then I will consider selling. I think demand will remain high and competition will be there but manageable. I doubled my capital allocation on AA now compared to last round but to be bought in stages on weakness. Now only 1/4 bullets in.

Stop talking about the stock like it is a casino game la. The business is there for you analyze its worth. The future actions are there for you to evaluate. If you buy now, you wont go wrong in 20 years la. Just decide if the price now is worth its potential. If you dont think so then dont buy. All this trap and goreng stuff is like 5 year olds talking.

I hope to add more tomorrow. Just betting on softer core numbers. If not then so be it...I have some already. No regrets.

Fool us once shame on you. Cant fool us twice. This time I hold for 10 years as I already locked in profit already yesterday.

Sifu Icon, im back in the plane with you at 3.11 (1/4 of my bullets)

Could be abit of pressure after results. Margin compression due to weak RM and their tactic of going after market share may have hit core earnings. Im sure theyll have other earnings but core wont look as good as consensus expected although load was high.

Will follow after break! Hopefully can still catch it.

Sifu, not yet..pondering to jump in at 3.11 follow u after break. Bet on AAC again. Did u go in a little bit or big way? haha

It turns out yesterday was a mix of factors of BB profit taking, AAX fears and perhaps jitters on 1Q 17 results. AAC should be safe and no merger with AAX. But still managed to squeeze out guys like me who had alot to protect. No choice as yesterday no info so I had to protect capital and gains. Now I can look to get back in..

Icon I was told it is progressing well. They are tight lipped due to bursa regulations.