Paperplane, I have been monitoring Airasia since its listing at Bursa & have been making money out of its share movement up & down.

Since when Airasia has become your baby?

Hi Buddies, hope everyday is a good day.

Up hold, down buy, enjoy invest!

Not much room for TunePro if compared to Airasia & Airasia-X

Today is another good day for all buddies here, well done!

Thanks for sharing, SUPERSUN.

For record, I have been accumulating more CCB periodically & progressively when price drop below RM3.35.

Many people including me expected a slow down in Jan before the release of sales report, BUT, it wasn't. No of units sold in Jan 2016 surprised everyone!

With PE of 6.5 times, I do think it is safe investment with potential of re-rating in near future.

Think as doing business, you will see something is brewing there with all the news flowing here & there.

Though it is not as sexy as Airasia now, I am keeping CCB as one of my long term investment.

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Mercedes-Benz opens first-of-its-kind store in KL
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/03/02/mercedes-benz-opens-first-of-its-kind-store-in-kl/

Another Mercedes-Benz Autohaus starts its business!
http://car.astroawani.com/detail/another-mercedes-benz-autohaus-starts-its-business-97082

Everybody can happy now, very strong rebound from Airasia coupled with good result.

Hope the uptrend is sustainable for longer period. Slow & Steady!

Gadang is now kind of slow & steady, consolidation is in the making at the range of RM2.05-RM2.15, up & down very frequently during this range.

Hope good news are on the way from the Company.

Today is another good day. Hope everybody happy here.

Thank you very much, moneySIFU, you are right & I shall do it next time.

Thanks for sharing Gadang news, buddyinvest.

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Posted by buddyinvest > Feb 28, 2016 09:18 AM | Report Abuse

Shaman, as per your request.

The Edge Weekly Feb 29 - March 6, 2016

IJM, Suncon and Gadang Frontrunners for MRT

Haha, stocktrader3, I love what you said.

"hopefully sifu sifu are talking truth lah...dun be like poker games, everyone said his last card is an Ace, end up "u big me i big u only"... "

haha, how are you, plane?

I made good profits in Airasia in 2008 & last year when both years' price touched down to RM0.90, though I have sold all at about RM1.30, I have been monitoring this lovely company, hope to have another panic sale again?

Viie, still many years to go, working damn hard now... :)

But why sudden huge sale today?

Hi, noobnnew, I am all time collecting Gadang & CCB, now see any opportunity in Airasia.

If follow the recent market reaction, see can collect some good bargain or not... :)

Other companies announced great result & price dropped like hell. How about Airasia?

Bad result? Bottom up
Good result? Will drop like hell

Crazy market!!!

Now collecting... queued so many days already & finally got it, thank you.

Wow, theedge weekly said reliable source informed 900 units sold, now actual figure is 1,027 units.

Thanks, SUPERSUN.

No matter how good we calculate, collective actions by other investors are more important, great result but price drop.

Business sense in investing are the decisive factor while ratios or figures analysis are merely tools or instruments to assist in making investing decision.

I am not trying to find excuses or reasoning my estimation, as whether right or wrong, no one is knowing who am I in real life, but I find it is worth to take time to reply to you, Yeo.

It's good discussion.

I will never invest in a stock purely based purely on PE, that's suicide act. (Property stocks are better choice in terms of PE)

All must take into accounts before making any investing decision.

JT Yeo, I start to doubt if you have read properly on my articles when you said the following:

"they normally do that when EPS is at the peak, without taking into account the historical EPS and reversion to mean"

I strongly suggest you to take a look at table 1 & 3 of my first article on CCB where more analysis were in fact done, of which include ROE that you have emphasized.

When we write an article, it is impossible to discuss every ratio analysis in one go, no one will read on it. It will be too technical. Ultimately, we need to select those commonly acceptable to the readers. If anyone has missed other section, that's bad.

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You have implied that some may have thought that this time is different or INI KALILAH.

In CCB, nothing is special or different, because they have already in business for decades.

We all have to read the market's behaviors in the past in relation to the past years figures on a particular stock. The business model is so predictable that everyone know how automotive industries work.

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One point I do agree with you, to me, I will hardly make up my mind to invest in Amazon, Facebook, Google, etc.

This stock is not suitable for active trader, it will kill you. I like someone said, CCB is an old man stock.

When Market is unpredictable, we may stand chance to get something out of it. Make use of fears from other people & gain on it.

Doing business is an Art plus rational acts rather than pure science.

I don't like to set very complicated calculation to arrive my expected PE or TP, because digging too deep or details will lose the initial focus.

I don't agree on your statement on "the more tools we use the more accurate the result can be".

Life is always full of uncertainty, business also. I will not call it accuracy but call it confidence to achieve the desired goal, in this situation, investment goal.

When talk about inflated earnings, it is very arguable, since when we can't predict higher profits based on previous quarters' results? Or we should only project lower profit?

To be strict on it, we will be always wrong when we are estimating future profit.

In Gadang case, I was wrong because I am under-estimating the profit. In CCB case, I am wrong because I am over-estimating the profit. In anyway, I will be always wrong no matter what my estimation.

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CCB Price has gone down due to many factors as we can see here:

1. rumour up confirmed news down
2. disappointment of no huge special dividend (I think this is the biggest reason)
3. weak market sentiment

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As reminder, KESM did deliver excellent result in the latest QR & price up nearly to RM6 within 1 day, now only about RM4.65, what a surprise to me.

No matter how simple or complicated on the calculation, know what are you doing & trust your judgement. Market is always unpredictable.

In my opinion, the most important things are the basis of arriving the conclusion, I trusted mine & I still trust. You have yours & I believe it is not wrong of using it, as long as you know it is the most suitable to you.

Never too optimistic, because you may be over confidence;
Never too pessimistic, because you may miss the chance.

There are more than hundred of methods of calculating a target price, ask a merchant banker who has experience in assisting clients to do IPO. All prices set are very subjective & prices set can always be justified & supported using all kinds of assumptions.

In setting a price target, some use the most commonly acceptable method, PE, like what I did. Some apply discounted cash flow method. In your case, ROE.

In CCB situation, we can keep on arguing this or that, but the fact were CCB were not doing well 2-3 years back, other than that, things have changed following the launch of new models from AG Daimler. With now ROE of 20% for 2015, what can we expect?

No, all TPs are nothing if Mr Market does not buy the idea. If you think Mr Market has underestimated the value of CCB, then it is chance for you to buy.

If you think Mr Market has done right & you are agreeable to it, then look for other better investment opportunity.

As long as you have your own calculation & judgement based on whatever valid sources, then you are on your way to be successfully in investing.

To me, CCB is having simple business model which I can understand, like Gadang, so I will stick to it until the time MB are no longer selling good.

Mr Market is always unpredictable, when we expect it to raise, ha, it goes down. When we are still waiting more cheaper sale, suddenly it goes up.

Yes, agreed to say this stock is a old man stock, slow slow move. Very much look forward to know how is the quarterly report look like.

paperplane & yoloooo so hard sell here, got to really read & dig deep on this company.

Hi CKwan, I will reply on what you've highlighted, I honour your opinion.

Q: But the author had not following his own rules of selection. i.e. rule No. 4
A: Dividend records is No.4 to me because I more focus on how the records looked like in the past. If the company was doing well & dividend was declared then, I can expect dividend payout when they are now doing well.

Q: And for a listed business entity existed in the local bourse for about 30 year, 'Sound Management' should be an unwritten duty and obligation. You do not have to tell your managers to be punctual.
A: I hope I will not invest in those Government-Linked Company. Not necessary public listed companies will think of what you think. Don't take it for granted. There are many wolves out there.


人不为己，天诛地灭

Seem paperplane got his new friend here.

Yes, paperplane, nothing bad was heard from the Company & the sales figure for Jan 2016 is good. So far, the only change is investing emotion from the investors.

There are always buyers & sellers at any point of time, some may feel optimistic & some other feel pessimistic. Got to live with it & see how it goes.

I don't act blindly or listen to rumours, I trust my judgement & sense, I think many i3 members are also the same, tough & steady, believe you are also.

Ha, Icon, this Airasia is trult extremely high gearing stock.

My thought on Airasia is trading buy & maximum investment timeline can not longer than 6 months, or things can be turned sour very fast.

Ha, paperplane, I believe what you said as you have been active in Airasia forum.

Hi moneySIFU, , thanks for the advice, will do it next time whenever buy or sell to record in real time. It is true that some can manipulate the portfolio by back dating the transactions.

I earn quite a sum in Airasia in real life, I understood what paperplane has been talking about Airasia, that's why I said before paperplane's pick not bad.

But one has to cautiously & selectively to enter right timing when purchasing Airasia, wrong timing will kill.

But this CCB is not as sexy as others, have to be patient to slow slow move... :)

Welcome, livelife, hope you enjoy my writing.

I am still trying to learn more from our big Icon8888, So much thing to catch up from him.

Haha, I like what you said, Icon, amdui, hahaha

Hi Icon, how are you? Gong xi fa cai & Happy New Year!!!

I parked = I had my buy order at RM2.11 this morning & it was filled.

I have set a long time queue at RM2.00 during the panic sale period, but price never gone to that level.

I queue too low, did not manage to accumulate much during the panic period, hope more panic sale but didn't realise.

When consolidation has been carried on for certain period of time, there will be either up or down then.

I believe the chance of going up is coming, I believe my sense, so hold tight, fellows.

Great! force

Hope to maintain at top gainer list today!

Well done, fellows!

Hahaha, I parked at RM2.11, thought never make it. When checked to my record, it's DONE.

Time to fly again for Gadang.

First TP - RM4.00

Next TP - RM4.50

My ultimate 2016 TP - RM5.00

If any announcement of special dividend, that will be a WOW factor... :)