Glove stocks bashed down by Kossan Qr result. however Harta plants are much more efficient and PAT margin is always higher than Kossan. Expecting Harta Qr PAT to be ~60m, lower than previous quarters but still profitable.

878m investment in financial instruments

Kossan 1q 2022 profit of 90m is expected. Year 2022 profit expected to be 400m+, EPS 15sen+.

It appears that IBs are publishing unfavourable reports on golve counters...& helping the shorts to cover their positions at lower prices

posted on 30/12/21, repost here.

If you are considering buying/selling Kossan stock, the following excerpt of 3q 2021 Result Report from Kossan Management may be instructive.

"...As we move into the 4th quarter of 2021, with the on-going vaccinations and higher vaccination rates recorded in the developed and developing countries, Covid-19 cases categorised as severe have declined. As such, the demand for gloves has eased with ASP’s also declining on a gradual basis.

However, even with these external factors, the Group expects the results for the Gloves division for the 4th quarter of the year to be within expectations

and for the overall full year 2021 to be satisfactory. The Group has always had an internal focus and is prepared for the post-pandemic period with a focus on operating efficiency, manufacturing excellence, research & development and innovation. Post-pandemic, the demand for gloves will continue to undergo structural growth as a result of increased healthcare standards and hygiene awareness in both the medical and non-medical sector.."

Kossan Management expects 4q 2021 result to be within expectations. In Management parlance, that means the Management is expecting good results

May be not only dompeilees are buying.But institutions are also collecting

looking at the transaction volume, it seems that many dompeilees are doing the same thing

If you are considering buying Kossan stock, the following excerpt of 3q 2021 Result Report from Kossan Management may be instructive.

"...As we move into the 4th quarter of 2021, with the on-going vaccinations and higher vaccination rates recorded in the developed and developing countries, Covid-19 cases categorised as severe have declined. As such, the demand for gloves has eased with ASP’s also declining on a gradual basis.

However, even with these external factors, the Group expects the results for the Gloves division for the 4th quarter of the year to be within expectations

and for the overall full year 2021 to be satisfactory. The Group has always had an internal focus and is prepared for the post-pandemic period with a focus on operating efficiency, manufacturing excellence, research & development and innovation. Post-pandemic, the demand for gloves will continue to undergo structural growth as a result of increased healthcare standards and hygiene awareness in both the medical and non-medical sector.."

Kossan Management expects 4q 2021 result to be within expectations. In Management parlance, that means the Management is expecting good results

Confucius says :

sell when IBs says tp100

buy when IBs says tp1.5

@ haha1234 upcoming quarter is around 1b pat

That is a bit optimistic. My estimate is only 888m

TG RSS total short position

16/11 203m
17/11 183m
18/11 168.9m

JPM TP RM1.50 appears to be working well spreading fears & enabling RSS operators to buy back at lower prices past 2 days

The JPM TP1.50 has actually created panic among some retail investors

RSS operators are reducing their position now. This latest JPM TP1.50 should help them to buy back at lower prices. Year end is nearing and RSS operators may want to realise actual profit instead of just paper gains

It's really simple. When analysts target rm1.5, you buy. When analysts target rm100, you sell.

@Lionel Messi Looks like JP Morgan is very keen on TG but hoping and wishing to buy cheap cheap. Thats why talking the price down. Beware of investment bankers. Just like politicians. Mostly crooks.

JPM probably has large interests in RSS...Don't expect favourable report from JPG

Sentiment is very bad. Want to collect also dare not. It is clear that analysts are driving down the sentiment.

Don't know who is lying and who is telling the truth. All I can see is Harta stock collection phase is in progress

I see Harta collection phase in progress. Want to join in ?

RHB webinar starts at 2pm today. The subject is not on gloves

I see Harta collection phase in progress. Want to join in ?

Harta's profit for the next 2 to 3 quarters will still be very much higher than the profit level during pre pandemic times. Even if the ASP stabilise at say US40 some time next year , the profit level then will still be substantially higher than pre pandemic times. You can easily verify by simple quantitative calculation yourself. At current price of RM7, Harta is very much under-valued

observatory, probably the US ADR OTC volume is too small to warrant any arbitrage efforts. But I believe the ADR price is a sign of things to come; some big players giving signal...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l24ZlIq2lWA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l24ZlIq2lWA

thank you Observatory for posting the Am IB report. Imho, Margma, Frost & Sullivan and Am IB are all guessing at best. And they all got paid for doing the guessing work. A big unknown is the "post pandemic" era ; will it arrive 1/2 yr, 1yr, 2yrs.. from now ?

I am attracted to Harta due to its steady performance pre-pandemic. I am confident Harta will do well post-pandemic due to its sound management team and its above industry efficiency plants.

Can I now confess that I just bought in Harta at 7

To be very realistic, the world beyond Covid-19 is still a long way off

Just bought some TG shares

@invest_malaysia Of course ASP is coming down to a lower level now. Otherwise TG price will be RM50

correction

3qFY21 total sales could be 15.6b+2.5b=18.1b if there were no ban by CBP

@pjseow , observatory
The qoq 2qFY21-3qFY21 decline in sales volume is mainly due to sales decline to N America.
2qFY21 N America sales is 23% of 16.3b total sales =3.75b
3qFY21 N America sales is 8% of 15.6b total sales =1.25b
qoq decrease in N America sales is 3.75b-1.25b =2.5b
3qFY21 total sales could be 15.6b+1.25b=16.85b if there were no ban by CBP

I believe the CBP ban will be lifted soon..will be a great catalyst moving forward. Just bought some TG shares this morning .

@ invest_malaysia Harta boss knows the game well. They know utilization rate is low last quarter (Jan to March) which affects their profit. They also know current quarter (April to June) will be full utilization. Next qr report will be good and they buy back a lot of their shares now.

Plant utilization rate would depend of Sales & Marketing & pricing power. Harta has done well in procuring good pricing...sometimes this can be at the expense of sales volume.I am sure sales will be better this quarter

@Zees77 Hartalega: Sales volume (Billion pcs) dropped to 6.7 from 9.5 due to container shortage and despite this they achieved a 10% increase in PAT. This is commendable!

Sales revenue increased despite sales volume reduced due to QoQ asp increase of 50%

Hartalega Holdings Berhad Registration No. 200601022130 (741883-X)11B2.Material Changes in the Quarterly Results Compared to the Results of the Preceding QuarterCurrent Quarter ended 31Mar2021Preceding Quarter ended 31 Dec2020VarianceRM'000RM'000RM'000%Revenue2,299,8582,129,901169,9578.0Operating profit1,569,2911,289,602279,68921.7Profit before interest and tax1,513,2771,347,434165,84312.3Profit before tax1,511,7901,345,873165,91712.3Profit after tax1,125,0741,007,827117,24711.6Profit attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parents1,119,0931,001,640117,45311.7Q4FY2021vs Q3FY2021Revenue for the quarter amounted to RM 2.30billion, increasedby RM170.0million or 8%as compared with precedingquarter.

The higher sales revenue was attributable to the increase in average selling price for the quarter.

This was partly offset by the volume reduction due to challenges faced on shipment availability caused by the global container shortages as well as temporary shutdown of certain production lines as a preventive measure and safety precaution in dealing with COVID-19 cases.



Note the qr result note from Harta management .... increase in asp for the quarter

Hartalega Holdings Berhad Registration No. 200601022130 (741883-X)11B2.Material Changes in the Quarterly Results Compared to the Results of the Preceding QuarterCurrent Quarter ended 31Mar2021Preceding Quarter ended 31 Dec2020VarianceRM'000RM'000RM'000%Revenue2,299,8582,129,901169,9578.0Operating profit1,569,2911,289,602279,68921.7Profit before interest and tax1,513,2771,347,434165,84312.3Profit before tax1,511,7901,345,873165,91712.3Profit after tax1,125,0741,007,827117,24711.6Profit attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parents1,119,0931,001,640117,45311.7Q4FY2021vs Q3FY2021Revenue for the quarter amounted to RM 2.30billion, increasedby RM170.0million or 8%as compared with precedingquarter.

The higher sales revenue was attributable to the increase in average selling price for the quarter.

This was partly offset by the volume reduction due to challenges faced on shipment availability caused by the global container shortages as well as temporary shutdown of certain production lines as a preventive measure and safety precaution in dealing with COVID-19 cases.

Note the increase in asp for the quarter

Last chance to collect before qr result

And TG & Supermax are both on uptrending now, if you just want to consider TA

@pjseow Stockraider. The devil is in the details. I have read both Frost & Sullivan price.charts and Vital Factor.Consulting Reports and did a very detail calculations for the.revenues and profits for both Topgloves and Supermx for the next 4 years using.the projected ASP s and Capacities Expansions. You will be Shocked with the good earnings even with. the.expected lower ASPs. I have checked my assumptions and calculations more than 10 times. Barring.any.unforseen circumstances, these gloves counters are damn good bets at current.prices.

Absolutely agree with pjseow. We have seen the calculations in this forum. If anything, pjseow had made the calculations based on very conservative profit assumptions. The available data showed that TG & Supermax are very under-valued.

I suspect Stockraider has not done any detailed calculations based on available data. Serious investing cannot be based on imaginations.

Flushing out weak holders in progress

Yes agreed glovefinish. Let the market decide. Right now it is uptrending if you know TA

Short sellers are in serious trouble. There is a big reservoir of buyers ready to buy cheap cheap from them

@pjseow Affin Hwang IB analyst projected 2021eps at 1.595 = 4.34 billion

Yes punters will rush in after QR release & price is RM10 haha

Today's remarkable rally appears to be a re rating of glove stocks by local fund managers. Retailers who bought the higher prices now have decent chance of recovering their losses & even make some good profits in a few months time

@pjseow I am happy my conviction.and perseverance pays off . I have added Topglove and supermx when they were below.5 and 4.5 respectively. I have also bought some Harta at below 9.50 . It is as if the markets suddenly.discovered the values of glove stocks after 6 months of downtrend.

Appreciates your view. In my view today's remarkable rally indicates the re rating of glove stocks by local fund managers. Retailers who bought glove stocks at higher prices now have decent chance of recovering their losses and even make some profits

After QR release, people ask : wow this thing so high. Is it a bird ? is it a plane ? is it a rocket ?

NO ! It's SUPERMAX !

@pjseow My comment is the calculation results are as good as the reasonable assumptions you have made. One other item that has not been factored in is the vastly improved net cash position over the next 2-3 years which would move the TP higher ( also HK IPO would raise 7b?)

https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/overseas-funds-loving-malaysia-glove-stocks-again-after-selloff

@ RISK8888 1q 1.5 bil = 1y 6bil = mkt cap = 60bil ler.

give 50% discount mkt cap =30 billion TP=30/2.721=11

Supermax TP=RM11

@ pjseow Abba84, China central bank did the right thing.by stopping the Ant IPO. If Ant s business is lending money , it had better follow the banking laws . ANT IPO will not be approved by US banking laws too after they experienced the 2008.of financial crisis which bankrupt almost.all the big banks plus the insurance companies. Jack Ma can.try to IPO ANT group in the US if he think.US is less stringent . Try and see and I wish him good luck.

Agreed with pjseow. I was really surprised that Jack Ma could go that far as to attempt an IPO on Ant Financial . The extreme leverage proposed by Ant Financial in its business operations will never be allowed by any banking laws in the world today. The financial crisis of 2008 has taught the world a good lesson

moi87, well said