@knm You need to be a majority shareholders like those IBs who owns lots of the company shares to move the price to RM9... Unless you say the auntie uncle own that amount of shares la..

At one stage they run out of ideas what to paste...
So they would just type RUN!!!! SELL!!!!

You can see their vocabulary and writing style is very limited. That’s why i said their rate is RM4 per hour.

There is no need to attack them..
@rr88 @teamrocket etc

They’re just trying to make a living by copy paste vacinne headlines...Their employer track their performance by looking at their posting rate per hour...

This page has the highest SEO in google search engline when you type Supermax.

So it makes sense when there’re a bunch of professional paid naysayers come here to deceive the uninformed investors. Especially those who is not finance literature.

For sure they get paid (maybe RM4 per hour based on the level of content they wrote) otherwise who is so free to come here and type nonsense. People come here to look for information and they know it.

Supermax share price will only go south when people stop ordering gloves from them .

Ask yourself is covid-19 under control now before you panic sell. (Market risk)

Is the company performing badly?
(Business risk)

Instead we know they will achieve higher in next quarter.

@Elite IB will only exit when there is a change of fundamentals or the company is overvalued.

So question is whether you know their TP or not...

@rr88 Im doing value investing so no thanks.
As there is no change in fundamentals.
1. High Covid Case
2. Lots of high unfulfilled ASPs orders
3. No vaccine can slow down the virus
4. Lots of unrealised prepayment

I have audited many manufacturing company in my auditing life so I know how their accounts and internal control systems work.
Can I know whats your qualifications?
I know lots of experienced investors are losing miney cause they dont even know how ti form their own analysis and blindly follow others. So I believe in technical knowledge not experience.

Or maybe you’re just a paid clown to spread fears here.
Im just wondering how much do you charge per hour?
You and your team seems very dedicated.
Who is your employer?

I remembered when i bought Supermax at 7.3 Lots of monkeys shouting bubbles when it dropped to 6.8 and it last for quite many days. Well, if you’re ordinary people who doesnt know how to project earnings by looking at the QR report and generate your own TP. Of course you will feel tensed. I highly recommend you guys to take up course like ACCA (Im a member myself)/or some gurus seminar to learn how to evaluate reports.

1. Understand the business model
2. Assess the market risk
3. Project future earnings
4. Generate TP

Up and down in market very normal as there’re tons of uninformed investors. So make sure you’re not one of them. Otherwise you will end up chase high sell low. As you have no ideas what is going on.

So far none of the country order the vaccine from Russia yet except Philippines due to political ties. And Russia is currently using it for their frontline workers only. Don’t just read the headlines. Gloves stock will only go south when covid cases are under controlled with real supporting data. Normally IBs will jack down the price for collection before it moves to their TPs. Its very normal la. Dont just look at the figure look at the underlying values. You shouldn’t be panic if you’re not contra or margin players.

Today I clicked to buy til hand tired. What a golden chance to top up...

@PureBull need to wait the swing traders for finish taking profits first before it will limit up again

I hold both TG and supermax.
So it doesnt matter.

@invest200 Thanks for your feedback on my calculation. Kindly take note I did factor in the higher ASP that Supermax OBM enjoys as compared to TG in my calculation. (50% to 100%) I didn’t put 100% to 200% as I think most of the sky high ASPs increase should kick in from June onwards. While most of the people would just compare the NP margin of TG latest quarter with Supermax. So their margin gap shouldn’t be so much.

I think its same person creating many fake accounts... a professional paid naysayers...

I think teamrocket aaraontan ahmedahned all the accounts are belongs to same person.. really professional... salute you... need to work at midnight...

I think Top Glove share price should be 67%-92% higher than Supermax.

Why?
1. Assume the ASPs of Supermax is 50%-100% higher than Topglove
(160usd vs 80usd)

2. TG production capacity is 234% more than Supermax
(80.2b vs 24b)

3. TG share issued is approx doubled of Supermax
(1.36b vs 2.7b)

4. Assume PE ratio is same

Hence TG revenue should be 134% - 184% higher than Supermax.

Hence EPS of TG should be 67% to 92% higher than Supermax.

So dont blame them for spreading negativity here... they just try to make a living... kesian them abit la./m
@aarontan @teamrocket @joyvest

Seems like there are lots of paid professional naysayers here like aarontan team rocket joyvest etc... Im just wondering how much you charge? Is it by hourly basis? Your employer must be angry today as you couldn’t press down the price lower than 20...You will lose your job soon.. lol...

@OTB totally agree with your estimation... TP50 gogogo!!!

Supermax target price:

This Quarter: 408m

Next Quarter: 1 Bil

Why 1 Bil?
The report says most of the high ASPs sales order is yet to be reflected.
If you decode this message, it means there are lots of unfulfilled sales orders with highest ASPs on June. Hence, the current revenue only captured some unfulfilled orders from March with low ASPs, April and May.

As we can only recognized the sales when the goods are delivered to the customers. (IFRS 15/IAS18) With limited production of 6 bil per quarter, any excess sales order will be brought forward to next quarter. If you look at the prepayment of the latest quarter report (900 mil++), this indicates the deposits/prepayment from the customers for unfulfilled order on June. Let's be conservative, i assume this deposits is for 6b ctn sales orders which can only be completed after 1 full quarter. We know customer usually pay 30-50% deposits for sales order. Hence my estimation for 1b PAT per quarter is very safe.

Next Next Quarter: 1 Bil (assume no revision in ASP)
Next3 Quarter: 1 Bil (assume no revision in ASP)
Total 4 Quarter: 3.4 Bil
Total number of shares: 1.36 Bil
EPS: 2.5
PE 10 = RM25
PE 20 = RM50
PE 30 = RM75

If Supermax can achieve TP50, i think Affin Bank calculation of TP100 is highly achievable..

@maxam the calculation is very good.. But you can expect more with new input from this quarter.. The TP should be much higher..

Supermax > 25 and TG > 30 this week...The day is still young...

If you decode this message (highest ASPs not reflected), it means there are lots of high ASPs unfulfilled on June has not reflected in this quarter yet ... thats why there are lots of prepayment and deposits...

This Quarter: 408m
Next Quarter: 1 Bil
Next Next Quarter: 1 Bil (assume no revision in ASP)
Next3 Quarter: 1 Bil (assume no revision in ASP)
Total 4 Quarter: 3.4 Bil
Total number of shares: 1.36 Bil
EPS: 2.5
PE 10 = RM25
PE 20 = RM50
PE 30 = RM75

Priced in? Its so undervalued...

@Your Sifu Nobody use current earnings to project share price..

@Aaron tan do you know what is forward PE valuation?

Kindly take note that the prepayment and bank balances that you see is probably just 30%-50% of the actual unfulfilled sales amount on June. As customers wont pay full amount to order goods. (30%-50%) is fair.

Can you imagine whats the actual sales figure once they have fulfilled the order on July onwards.. It can be easily double the amount of prepayment. So PAT 1bil to 2bil is not a dream...

They are crying with their put warrants now.. leave them alone..

If supermax TP50, Tooglove TP 100 by Affin Bank is not a dream... luckily i hold both...

Err.. based on PE 20... this quarter 408m plus 1b for next 3 quarters (assume no ASP revise from June onwards) total PAT 3.4b divided by 1.36b of shares multiply by PE 20 = TP50

Did aaron tan team rocket buy put warrants?

Yes look at the prepayment and bank balances.. thats the deferred sales on June with highest ASPs that im talking about...Lots of sifu calculation neglects the deferred sales order part and too optimistic. Luckily it turned out too be good. So I believe current sales consist little bit of unfulfilled March sales order with low ASPs and some April and May sales order. For sure majority if June sales orders are not fulfilled yet. So they cannot recognise that revenue. (IFRS 15/IAS18)

Use common sense.. If all the sales orders generated on June with highest ASPs are reflected on this quarter.. It would not be just 408m... But too bad they have to clear off the unfulfilled orders on March, April and maybe May first with their limited 6b production capacity...They should revise their ASP pricing strategies by batches instead of monthly basis.. So its easier for us to estimate the PAT.. But now Im quite confident with my assumption and calculation...

If you notice the sales increment of this quarter is just merely 147% while in the investment briefing report we see the ASP increase as much as >250%... What does it tell you? Lots of the high ASPs sales order on May and June are not fulfilled yet and being brought forward to next quarter... Next quarter PAT can easily achieve 1B... Now supermax is so undervalued...

For those who is going to attend the EGM tomorrow.. Kindly ask are they alot of unfulfilled orders on May and June.

Based on the 408m PAT... I think it only captured April and partialMay sales order... Lots of the June with insane sales order are brought forward to next quarter... I cant imagine the PAT of next quarter... Hohoho

As what I predicted...
The most exciting part is i think lots of the unfulfilled orders on June with highest ASPs should be deferred to next quarter. Next quarter would be very very very good!!!!

Wasting my time to wait for the QR.. I go for dinner first...

Gosh.. i think we just fooled... Maybe the result is not coming out today as per rumour

Guys go and read up my writing on fulfilled vs unfulfilled orders before you read the quarter reports... So you will have a big picture of what is going on... I believe there are lots of unfulfilled high ASPS sales orders on June are deferred to next quarter.. And then there might be some low ASPs March unfulfilled orders brought forward to this quarter Remember they can only produce 6 bil max per quarter.. Anything more than that will be brought forward til they can produce and complete that order...

Just look at the percentage of increase of revenue.. If less than 100%, that means all the high ASPs orders are brought forward. And there are lots of backlog orders on March... Use business logic to think... lots of the high ASPs sales will hide in current liabilities under prepayment/deferred revenue...

Just like him name Poison Fang.. the name indicates his intention to instill fear...

I really pity those who play contra on Friday.. must be a very bad day for them...

most of the contra/margin players are panic selling now... Good day for IBs

You must know IBs have a group of qualified financial analyst and certified accountants to project the earnings.. for sure they understand the concept of unfulfilled orders (IFRS15/IAS18). if you have friend working in Supermax tell you the sales during April to June quarter are very good, it doesnt mean that all of them will be reflected in that quarter..you need to send the gloves to your customers first and get DO signed.. otherwise what the customers paid to you is just deposit and park in current liabilities..So what retailers think doesnt matter..just let them keep shouting here..What the big sharks think matter and they're qualified people...So no worries la...Unless factory burned, covid cases drop, 99% effective rate vacinne in mass production..otherwise with the fundemental why scare.. you must know there are lots of rich uninformed retailers in market..u can't control their decision but IBs are not dumb retailers..they invest based on facts and figures...They will only exit when there is no prospect for the company.. t

the share price is the reflection of the present value of the future earnings of the company. You dont just use the current earnings to estimate the share price. That's why most of the people is using forward PE instead of PE to estimate the share price.

@ssoo2589 So if they only earn 300m in this quarter.. you need to estimate how much will they earn in next 3 quarters then sum up divide by total number of shares to get the EPS and multiply by PE20. Everybody has their own set of calculation, you need to derive yours.. don't ask others..

If big sharks are selling, it will instantly drop to <10 with the number of shares that they have..Dont try to deceive others please...Use common sense..

Guys please understand the concept of fulfilled orders and unfulfilled orders..
If you can only produce 6 bil ctn per quarter, you can't take in account 10 bil ctn of sales for that quarter...The other 4 bil ctn will be brought forward to next quarter sales after they are fulfilled.
This is the accounting treatment for sales (IFRS 15/IAS18)
So even the result is below expectation does not mean the Supermax is going south, just that lots of their high ASPs unfulfilled orders are brought forward to next quarter...
Unless u think Supermax has no customers at all and covid cases have dropped..
Think logically before u sell your precious ticket...
Lots of people talking rubbish here as they probably lost alot in margin/contra account..
now the market is full of uninformed, emotional and irrational investors..
thats why the price is fluctuating...
For me even the result is below expectation i will still hold as i know the sales orders are brought forward..for sure the IBs will revise the TPs for Supermax as they know about this too..

@aaron tan you should buy more when it dropped. Now its a good chance..

You can find in KYY forum.
My target price for Supermax.

Supermax ad released the investor briefing notes.. now the only variables is we dont know whether they sell more on June (which ASP highest) or May/April. Of course they will fulfill the order first in first out. Instead of guessing, what we know is the lead time of the order is approx 2 years now. The sales order is real and the management wont lie by looking at the Covid cases.

So if it is not reflected on this quarter, it will be on next quarter. The only thing you need to concern is whether the Covid cases got dropped or not..The russian vacinne is not a risk at all as no one buy from them except Philippines. And they just use for their frontline workers only and not yet mass production for public usage.

Just look at the percentage increase as compared to last quarter.. if less than 100% that means all the high ASP unfulfilled sales order is brought forward to next quarter.. For sure the bank analyst is will issue new higher TP after this.. As they understand how accounting treatment works... so dont regret if u sell now..

@jsw84 finally someone understand what i wrote...lol
I dont just simply write nonsense here..
Im actually a chartered accountant..
Be prudent guys...
If the sales are not reflected in this quarter means next quarter... no need to worry.. this is due to accounting treatment...