Be prudent and conservative guys...
I agree on OTB which the next QR result will be more bombastic. (As I think think majority of the unfulfilled June sales order will be deferred there)
Look at the midterm not just short term.
I also hope the PAT is 1 bil as what katherine said la...
means most of the sales order are generated on June which the ASP is the highest...

I just want to provide some information to the uninformed investors that the company receive 20 bil orders from April to June does not mean that they can take in account all the sales. They must fulfilled the sales first before they can recognise it. The unfulfilled order will be parked at prepayment/deferred sales in current liabilities which you can’t see in the sales account.

@katherine as I said 1 bil is achievable if there is no unfulfilled order on March.And majority of the sales order spike is on June.

For instance:
(April - 1 bil sales order, May - 2 bil sales order, June - 3 bil sales order)

Please note that unfulfilled sales order cannot be taken account/recognise into sales if based on IFRS 15/IAS 18.

Correct me if my analysis is wrong.
But i think most of the non-accounting background plple would not understand what i said.
But just be prudent and conservative.
Believe in Covid-19.
For me 300-400 is a safe PAT.
Anything more than that means the the spike in sales order is from May and June onwards.

Hence unless u know the actual volume sales order of each respective month, otherwise u cant really estimate the PAT of the company. But please be rest assured the unfulfilled order of May or June will be reflected in next quarter if they are not reflected in this upcoming quarter.

I think we have to be prudent for the result of this QR.
As what I explained earlier.. the accounting treatment of the revenue will really impact on the upcoming QR result
as they can only recognise/take in the revenue of fulfilled sales order.

We know the maximum production capacity is 6 billion per quarter. Assume they can deliver the goods to their customers within 2-3 days thru air mail. If they receive 8 billion sales order on March. 2 billions Of unfulfilled sales order will be reflected on this upcoming quarter revenue. But I believe the spike of sales order begin on April onwards as most of the ASP revision begins on that month. So assume they receive 6 billions sales order on April. You must always remember they can only produce 6 billion max in each quarter. The unfulfilled sales order on May and June which the ASP increased the most will only be brought forward on next quarter.

I think the ASP will reflect more on the revenue if they revise their selling price based on batches instead of month. For example first 6 billion ctn sell finish, next batch will be based on new price/ASP. But instead they revise based on monthly basis. So volume of sales order on each month can really affect the revenue. For instance 2 billion respective orders on April, May and June will be different with 1 billion sales order on April and May and 4 billion on June will make so much different on the revenue.

So i think the revenue if the new quarter will be some unfulfilled order from March, April and maybe May. Lets be conservative on the result. I think 1 billion is achievable if the spike in sales order is on June which us highly unlikely.

I dont know how Supermax accounts recognise the revenue..But technically if based on the correct accounting treatment, they should only recognise the revenue when the goods are delivered (Delivery order is stamped and signed back by customers)

So there is high possibility that the sales are hidden in deferred/accrued revenue..

So don’t be panic id u see the revenue slightly below your expectations.. Some portion of the revenue will be deferred to next quarter..

Now the only risk is how they recognised the sales revenue.. If based on IFRS 15.. the goods must be shipped to customers first before they can recognise fully in their sales account.. outstanding amount will debit to trade receivable account... On the other hand, prepayment or deposits will be credited to deferred revenue as liabilities and debit bank

So the high amount of sales will either reflect in this quarter or next...But either way their revenue prospect should be high...

Sometimes is good to remove all those uninformed investors.. I know some very rich uninformed investors buying gloves stocks like playing baccarat . if the stock up 1 or 2 ringgit.. They will quickly sell (This will slow down the stock to reflect its true value) . if the stock in red.. They will quickly cut loss.. They don’t even know what they’re buying and the underlying values of the company...In my perspective, today morning is a test of mind game.. Lots of uninformed investor will recall the sharp drop before the qr released of hartalega by looking at the price movement of the supermax.. So they will quickly cut losses as they think the stock will go south...

Still have lots of uninformed investors panic selling... We have to wait them finish selling first.. Be patient...

50m means supermax sell to their customer at much cheaper rate during April to June peak season.

Let’s do a reverse calculation, if Supermax PAT is less than 300m like what is claimed by the naysayers.

Annual production capacity = 24b ctn
Per quarter production = 6b ctn x 95% = 5.7b ctn
(Assume 5% defect rate)

We know the changes in ASP will be pure profits.

Portion of increase of revenue due to ASP + 71m (last QR result)
= 300m

Portion of increase of revenue = 229m

ASP increase amount x 4.2 (forex) x 5.7b ctn x 0.76 (24% tax rate) = 229m

ASP increase amount = +12 USD only
(Doesn’t make sense as we know they can sell more than 100USD)

If follow Aaron Tan 50m prediction, the ASP will go negative which is even more stupid.

I think one of the possible reason of the share drop on last Friday is due to some players try to stay out from the NFP result which was expected to be very bad. But it turned out very good and beat the analyst forecast. So the risk of turbulence is voided. Tomorrow should be a happy day.

@AaronTan ur literally using Supermax last qr PAT multiply by 2 by referring to Harta recent result... Learn how to fabricate your false statement first with supporting figures before you try to deceive others...

That’s why i doubt the TG gloves detention is due to Huawei 5g...

Yes it’s for the election..
After election he will work on new trade deal again..
Friend friend back with China...
Which president doesnt want its economy to prosper...
But will expect another negotiation round la...

That’s why he need to create another bigger drama to cover the virus issues..

War is more concerning for people...
In the end he won the allies, economy and respect...
Never underestimate him

Yea i agree..

I ad explained earlier..
It just a diversion technique from covid-19 crisis...
To sell more weapon to his allies..
Ask hin allies to ban huawei..

At the same time, he does not want share market to suffer. So he can just keep creating tension til he won the election. It looks like its going to be war but its just a drama.

That’s why lots of people are panicking, they think ww3 is coming...

They’re trying to declare real war, not trade war...
But it wont happen no worries...

No pain no gain.. i remembered the long red period on June...

I can sense lots of default payment when the moratorium is over... next qr qill be ugly...

And good chance for opportunist to buy more...

Longer correction is good... flush out the players with low risk appetite.. so it can go further..

Maybe if Malaysia banned Huawei too, the detention will be cleared immediately. It’s nothing to do with the forced labor.

Yea. That’s why they’re nervous now and try to rectify their mistake before China grows stronger in the future.

For me they have lots of cards to play la before declaring wars. Watched the Taiwan news and they said lots Chinese leaders are having lots of assets in US. US can just freeze their assets.

Secondly, they already had the evidence that the virus is originated from China from the Chinese scientist that escaped to US. Forgot her name...

Just continue to watch the drama la...

Stirring fears in market = opportunity $$$

Investors have to weight the cost-benefit analysis of the two giants going into war before panic sell down. If war can create more benefits to the country interest, then it will happen. But declaring war during the pandemic situation, hmmm...

It’s a show la... They can sell more weapons and F35 and asking their allies Huawei..Good business though...when you’re free you can look at Taiwan news. Some of the show has good analysis..

All the big tech companies in US will go south as well if China market is doom.

It will rather be a cold war in my perspective...

Dont’t forget China is still the second largest consumption country in the world. Who is going to buy more agricultural products in Trump second tenure from US if war happened?

Then why would he still want to work with China if the vaccine is out first? His stance is very self-conflicting. And we know he has changed his stance lots of time during the trade wars.

The best way is to maintain this tensed situation until his won his election. So he can have win-win situation in shares market and winning his second term. His approval rate has increased recently and comes very closed with Joe. It’s a good diversion from current covid-19 crisis as well. Don’t forget his always proud with his astonishing shares market results and high employment rate. Declaring will only make his shares market and citizens suffers more.

Im totally agree with yttis.

Although there’re lots of bad things happening on these few days:

1. US ordered China to shutdown its consulate in Houston

2. China retaliates by ordering US to shutdown its consulate too in Chengdu

3. Intensifying tension in South China Sea

4. US weekly 600 dollars aid is going to expired at the end of July

However, other things also happen at the same time

1. US gives green lights to Japan 23b USD on F35 buy

2. More countries are banning Huawei 5g network
(Except Malaysia)

3. Trump agreed to work with China if the vaccine is out first

4. Trump approval index soared

If you look at the whole picture, I personally think Trump will not declare a war but just to create tension to get more allies by banning Huawei and sell more weapons.

In the end of the day, he wont press the war button as it will drag down the share market which will make his campaign donor very unhappy. Fyi, they are looking to extend another 100 US dollar weekly aids. Furthermore, the covid cases is increasing everyday in US and its allies’ countries. Declaring war at this moment is very irrational as we know war require alot of cost. They can just use the money to help its citizens during the pandemic time. My 2 cents view.

For those who are concerning Supermax will end up like Heng Yuan,
kindly read the following article:
https://koonyewyin.com/2018/04/04/why-hengyuan-is-falling-so-rapidly/
(One is with good prospect, one is without)

In conclusion, they're different, please do not relate.

For those who worry Supermax will end up like Hengyuan.
Read the following article:
https://koonyewyin.com/2018/04/04/why-hengyuan-is-falling-so-rapidly/

In conclusion, one is without good future prospect, one is with good prospect, so please don't relate them together.

Im not trying diss Genting but limiting 3 players in a table for the SOPS will surely dampen Genting revenues. So now Genting is definitely overvalued unless there are lots of VVVIPs go there to gambles everyday. But with country lockdown, I dont think the tycoons from other country can go there and lose few hundred millions to them lol.

Same for Air Asia, with the spike of second wave in other countries, the tourism sector will take a long time to recover. It will surely affect their biz.

Swapping glove stocks to GH/AA, think twice.

There is no movement now as most of the people will flock in when the share price is skyrocketing. They don’t have the patience to wait. They cut loss when the price goes down abit and buy high when the stock is sky high. This is human phycology. Especially if you’re the buyer who buy based on chart but not value. Just hold and wait for July/Aug quarter report. You will see the price move up again when the date is approaching. Everyone will flock in and ride the trend. Lol

Dont go for marginal call/warrants as there’re lots of non financial literature buyer in market. Their emotion will cause ur accounts burned. They only look at figures/chart but not the value of the company. Big IBs and sharks can kill you too. If there is big selloff tomorrow just buy and treat it as a big discount.

Saw a comment talking about selling glove stocks and buy Genting and Air Asia shares. Maybe you can just pay a visit to Genting VIP casinos. If you lost few 100 millions to them, surely can push up the share price, if you’re lucky you can win few hundred millions too. Lol

They will end up printing more monies (QE) to save the economy and let the snowball roll. In March they never expected the virus situation will be worsen, do you think they don’t how to save the market again if they foresee second wave is coming. Think.

If you’re concerning about the DJ30 crash, trump second economic stimulus package is coming. Besides that, the DJ30/SPX500 will always rebound fast by looking at current trend cause the Fed will always save the day. In fact i made quite decent of money by leveraging the index cause the trend is so predictable. Trump won’t let the stock market looks bad if he want to win the election. No worries.

There is no correlation between DJ30 and gloves stock, you may just look at the chart in the past.. When the market crash, it either has no movement or rise up. Correct me if Im wrong. In fact, the root cause of the sharp decline in DJ30 just now is due to the spikes in the covid cases in US, which is a good news of glove counter as they can sell more gloves. My good guess is some people from IB is trying to spread fears here so they scoop up more cheap gloves stocks which are expected to fly high in near future. Please invest in company based on the present value of its projected cashflow in the future, or u can use simple PE valuation method to value the company, If the company can continue to show growth in quarter profits, just hold and don't panic sell. Supermax is definitely undervalued, my TP is at least 10