siva. it wont hold 72c. high chances of opening gap down, be prepared.

possible open at 71c.

see how they defend tomorrow klci? or give up defending?

siva. for 5 good years oil only go up and up. dont u think the oil price melt come as a shock to them? i think they r still in denial, as u can see they increase the petrol while the oil price started melting down. they must have thought oil will rebound to above 100 in no time.

so, conclusion, they still pretend donno that oil has collapsed.

2014-12-09 10:55
俄罗斯受油价急挫之痛的同时，其实也正接近主权债务危机。
该国货币卢布已经贬了超过45%，需要大量银弹来扶市。
名义上，俄国储备金有3700亿美元，但实际上可以拿来“抗战”（支持卢布）的还不到2000亿美元，而且这几个月为了扶持卢布，已经花了好几百亿。
再下去，俄国的储备金不足抵抗炒家的抛卖。
俄外汇外债超越5000亿美元
另一个沉重的负担是外汇外债，竟已超越5000亿美元。
虽说政府本身所欠的不多，但是政府和官联机构如Rosneft不少欠款已快要到期。现在这些机构都因为西方的制裁而不能借债还债，必将违约收场。
2013年初，一美元只兑30卢布，但到了今天，卢布已贬到54，可以说正式进入货币危机阶段，再一年半载就会进入主权债务危机。
俄国央行不断扶市，但卢布却升不上来，这就是典型的货币危机现象。
俄国所靠的外汇收入，有三分之二是靠石油，如今油价急跌，外汇收入必定剧减；就连中国先付4000亿美元的部分款项也不足来应付。
西方的制裁继续发威，严重打击俄国金融经济；最新的数据显示，2015年俄国必然进入衰退，许多研究机构也已经做了类似宣布。
但我觉得最大的问题：“衰退事小，危机事大”。
俄国卢布危机足以冲击全球吗？这是否全球危机的先兆？
其中一个肯定的冲击是“巴西危机”；一些分析机构已预测巴西随时会跟着俄国卢布危机，一齐爆发或接着爆发。
作为新兴经济体，大马又会如何？
还记得1997年的泰铢危机吗？当时，泰国金融危机来自其地产崩盘，后导致银行陷困，大企业还不了外汇外债，泰铢就即刻被狙击。
玩味的是，当时其他国家完全“不知不觉”。
加上美国副财长萨默斯（Lawrence Summers）兴风作浪，炒家逐一炒，结果就引爆了所谓的“亚洲金融危机”；当时，开始受狙击的泰国便是这场危机的指标。
2008年初，越南盾急贬，揭开了全球的金融危机面纱。
同样的，当越南危机发难时，全球资金链已发生问题，许多企业并购都几乎停顿，接着就是美国大企业资金停顿，流动性干枯的“破产局面”。
现在回首，我们可以说：越南小经济，小市场的危机才是全球危机的指标。
卢布危机如何左右全球资金动向？
首先全球资金经理会纷纷调整投资策略，就足以诱发灾难。
“卖空”卢布跟普丁“决战”
全球500家最大的资金管理机构，管理达70兆美元，试想想，只要他们改变1%的资金流向，那就是7000亿美元。根据国际结算银行（BIS）的估计，这个转变绝对足以震荡全球。
俄国危机已经令这些基金经理开始转移，全球许多较弱的新兴货币明年肯定继续面对沉重抛压。
国际炒家正在“卖空”卢布，跟普丁“决战”。
普丁不甘示弱，周五也宣布和炒家开战，实际上俄国已输了近千亿储备金，这个现象完全是泰国危机的翻版；日本在1998年6月的形势也一样。
今天，普丁只能“自己救自己”，其他资金经理也跟着一齐“抛卖”类似俄国的发展股市和货币，导致危机传染。
巴西、印度、南非、印尼、土耳其，甚至是大马、委内瑞拉等肯定受到不同程度的破坏。
在欧陆的国家，如瑞典、丹麦、波兰，这些与俄国有直接贸易和借贷的国家肯定也会殃及池鱼；奥地利、瑞士和德国银行等也将被牵连。
大马如何应变？或不知不觉？
今天这篇文章的内容和分析，可能让人觉得“危言耸听”……或许我们看看明年今日吧…
何启斌博士 金融经济学家

global hedge fund control usd 7 trillion of hot money. what is 125 billion? 12% of 1 trillion only.

Posted by optimsuR > Dec 9, 2014 08:03 PM | Report Abuse

Don't think so. it's not like 1999. Now Malaysia armed with plenty of reserve. 125 billion. Cincai few billion can stabilize it. It's just a matter of when they want to do it.



u must be joking. few billion can stabilize it? to the big hedge fund if they all set out to short ringgit. it will drop to 5.00.

i m thinking. if ringgit can drop to 24 yrs low vs sing dollar, and oil price 6 yr low.

what is not making KLCI at say.... 3 yr low, or 5 yr low?

from simple chart... lowest of oct 2011 is 1310. 3.5 yr low
lowest for 2010 is ci 1230, 4.8 yr low.

so is 1300 the level we will see in 2015? thats is very scary.

no problem

what is 11% for Asia's Greece? 190pts...

its 1550

ringgit next level?? 3.80 again?

siva, even ahjib and zeti also no clues. how can i speculate?

i told u guys to run 2 wks ago. see what happen now? what factory visit la fund interested la, all bs.

if i were u. i will convert this stock in cash form. for now. just like fisherman, they may feel a need to go out fishing everyday to max their profit, or not willing to see other fishing when they stay at home for the safety of monsoon strongwind etc.

if u r a fisherman. with all the headwinds , do u still want to count your possible catch? or u rather preserve the boat, and your life.

advise everyone to re-look at their expectation vs realities now.
together with their risk tolerance. or rather, Pain tolerance.

imagine if this stock is at 50c, r u still ok? can u buy more to average? if the answer is NO, then u better keep yourself in standby mode.

siva u may want to read this.



Photographer: Munshi Ahmed/Bloomberg
Pipes wind past oil storage tanks at the ATT Tanjung Bin terminal near the Port of Tanjung Pelepas, Johor, Malaysia. Malaysia is the only net oil exporter among major Asian economies and tumbling crude prices will reduce state income, hampering efforts by Prime Minister Najib Razak to rein in the budget deficit.
The ringgit is leading a retreat among Asia’s emerging-market currencies as oil prices slide and strategists predict Malaysia’s worsening current account will lead to further losses.
Malayan Banking Bhd. has lowered its ringgit forecast while BNP Paribas SA, Macquarie Group Ltd. and Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB are all in the process of cutting estimates, with the French lender saying Malaysia is set for the first deficit in its broadest measure of trade since 1997. Standard Chartered Plc and Scotiabank are also bearish after the ringgit slid 8.6 percent versus the dollar in the past three months, sapping demand for the nation’s debt.
“The weakness in the ringgit has come much sharper than we expected and the question is has it attained fair value?” Mirza Baig, head of foreign exchange and interest-rate strategy at BNP Paribas in Singapore, said in a phone interview yesterday. “My thinking is not really. We are on course to print the first current-account deficit in Malaysia since the Asian financial crisis.”
Malaysia is the only net oil exporter among major Asian economies and tumbling crude prices will reduce state income, hampering efforts by Prime Minister Najib Razak to rein in the budget deficit. Foreign ownership of Malaysia’s government bonds is relatively high at 30 percent, compared with 18 percent for Thailand, and this makes the securities more vulnerable to a sell-off as the ringgit’s outlook dims.
Yields Rising
The nation’s sovereign debt returned 0.7 percent in local-currency terms in the past three months, the worst performance in Southeast Asia, according to indexes compiled by Bloomberg. The average yield climbed 10 basis points to 3.94 percent, compared with a 50-basis point decline for Thai securities and a 17-basis point drop for Indonesian bonds.
The ringgit sank to a five-year low yesterday of 3.5073 per dollar as the cost of crude fell as much as 4.6 percent. Oil has dropped 15 percent since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ Nov. 27 decision not to cut production.
Malaysia’s currency has been “excessively penalized” for tumbling crude prices given that net exports of oil are only equivalent to about 0.3 percent of gross domestic product, said Dariusz Kowalczyk, a strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.
“People make a mistake by penalizing it so much but that’s what people do and it’s difficult to stand in the way of the trend,” he said in a Dec. 5 phone interview. “If oil prices decline further, the ringgit will also fall.”
Cutting Forecasts
The median forecast for the ringgit’s end-March exchange rate has weakened 3.6 percent this quarter to 3.35 per dollar, a Bloomberg survey shows, and more cuts are coming. BNP Paribas is in the process of lowering its 3.40 projection and Macquarie is looking to weaken its estimate of 3.45.
“There’s a lot of room for the ringgit to weaken beyond our official forecast,” Nizam Idris, head of foreign-exchange and fixed-income strategy at Macquarie, said in a Dec. 3 phone interview. “We were among the most negative on the ringgit at the beginning of this year but even we were taken by surprise by the recent moves.”
Maybank has lowered its first-quarter forecast to 3.50, according to a Dec. 8 research note. The bank’s earlier end-March target was 3.41, Saktiandi Supaat, the bank’s head of foreign-exchange research in Singapore, said in a phone interview yesterday. SEB will weaken its estimate of 3.40, Sean Yokota, Singapore-based head of Asian strategy said by phone yesterday.
Sole Loser
Malaysia will be the sole loser among emerging Asian economies from the drop in crude prices as 30 percent of state revenues are oil-related, Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists including Singapore-based Chua Hak Bin wrote in a Dec. 1 report. The government may miss its target of reducing its fiscal deficit to 3 percent of gross domestic product next year from 3.5 percent, according to the report.
Malaysia’s current-account surplus narrowed to 7.6 billion ringgit ($2.2 billion) in the third quarter, the smallest gap in more than a year, according to official data on Nov. 14. The last deficit was in 1997, central bank data show.
Malaysia’s exports fell 3.1 percent in October from a year earlier, the first decline since June 2013, according to a Dec. 5 government report. The trade surplus shrank to an 18-month low of 1.19 billion ringgit.
Standard Chartered has an “underweight” recommendation for the ringgit given the worsening trade data, Callum Henderson, the Singapore-based global head of foreign-exchange research, said in an interview yesterday.
“To see

good article to share. thks m



Photographer: Munshi Ahmed/Bloomberg
Pipes wind past oil storage tanks at the ATT Tanjung Bin terminal near the Port of Tanjung Pelepas, Johor, Malaysia. Malaysia is the only net oil exporter among major Asian economies and tumbling crude prices will reduce state income, hampering efforts by Prime Minister Najib Razak to rein in the budget deficit.
The ringgit is leading a retreat among Asia’s emerging-market currencies as oil prices slide and strategists predict Malaysia’s worsening current account will lead to further losses.
Malayan Banking Bhd. has lowered its ringgit forecast while BNP Paribas SA, Macquarie Group Ltd. and Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB are all in the process of cutting estimates, with the French lender saying Malaysia is set for the first deficit in its broadest measure of trade since 1997. Standard Chartered Plc and Scotiabank are also bearish after the ringgit slid 8.6 percent versus the dollar in the past three months, sapping demand for the nation’s debt.
“The weakness in the ringgit has come much sharper than we expected and the question is has it attained fair value?” Mirza Baig, head of foreign exchange and interest-rate strategy at BNP Paribas in Singapore, said in a phone interview yesterday. “My thinking is not really. We are on course to print the first current-account deficit in Malaysia since the Asian financial crisis.”
Malaysia is the only net oil exporter among major Asian economies and tumbling crude prices will reduce state income, hampering efforts by Prime Minister Najib Razak to rein in the budget deficit. Foreign ownership of Malaysia’s government bonds is relatively high at 30 percent, compared with 18 percent for Thailand, and this makes the securities more vulnerable to a sell-off as the ringgit’s outlook dims.
Yields Rising
The nation’s sovereign debt returned 0.7 percent in local-currency terms in the past three months, the worst performance in Southeast Asia, according to indexes compiled by Bloomberg. The average yield climbed 10 basis points to 3.94 percent, compared with a 50-basis point decline for Thai securities and a 17-basis point drop for Indonesian bonds.
The ringgit sank to a five-year low yesterday of 3.5073 per dollar as the cost of crude fell as much as 4.6 percent. Oil has dropped 15 percent since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ Nov. 27 decision not to cut production.
Malaysia’s currency has been “excessively penalized” for tumbling crude prices given that net exports of oil are only equivalent to about 0.3 percent of gross domestic product, said Dariusz Kowalczyk, a strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.
“People make a mistake by penalizing it so much but that’s what people do and it’s difficult to stand in the way of the trend,” he said in a Dec. 5 phone interview. “If oil prices decline further, the ringgit will also fall.”
Cutting Forecasts
The median forecast for the ringgit’s end-March exchange rate has weakened 3.6 percent this quarter to 3.35 per dollar, a Bloomberg survey shows, and more cuts are coming. BNP Paribas is in the process of lowering its 3.40 projection and Macquarie is looking to weaken its estimate of 3.45.
“There’s a lot of room for the ringgit to weaken beyond our official forecast,” Nizam Idris, head of foreign-exchange and fixed-income strategy at Macquarie, said in a Dec. 3 phone interview. “We were among the most negative on the ringgit at the beginning of this year but even we were taken by surprise by the recent moves.”
Maybank has lowered its first-quarter forecast to 3.50, according to a Dec. 8 research note. The bank’s earlier end-March target was 3.41, Saktiandi Supaat, the bank’s head of foreign-exchange research in Singapore, said in a phone interview yesterday. SEB will weaken its estimate of 3.40, Sean Yokota, Singapore-based head of Asian strategy said by phone yesterday.
Sole Loser
Malaysia will be the sole loser among emerging Asian economies from the drop in crude prices as 30 percent of state revenues are oil-related, Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists including Singapore-based Chua Hak Bin wrote in a Dec. 1 report. The government may miss its target of reducing its fiscal deficit to 3 percent of gross domestic product next year from 3.5 percent, according to the report.
Malaysia’s current-account surplus narrowed to 7.6 billion ringgit ($2.2 billion) in the third quarter, the smallest gap in more than a year, according to official data on Nov. 14. The last deficit was in 1997, central bank data show.
Malaysia’s exports fell 3.1 percent in October from a year earlier, the first decline since June 2013, according to a Dec. 5 government report. The trade surplus shrank to an 18-month low of 1.19 billion ringgit.
Standard Chartered has an “underweight” recommendation for the ringgit given the worsening trade data, Callum Henderson, the Singapore-based global head of foreign-exchange research, said in an interview yesterday.
“To see

siva. good luck to u, and keep watchful eyes.

i have gone thru the 1999 asian crisis. the culprit was the sudden devaluation of currency that resulted in many listed company collapse due to USD debt obligation.
the current round of currency devaluation happens when Malaysia 40% of govt budget is depending on oil price above usd100.

i do not know why S&P and moody has not downgraded Malaysia debt rating yet. or they will only do it after their members (goldman, morgan, etc) all sold and remitted the money overseas? if that is the case.. next week may be the week they throw the bomb here and go away celebrate their christmas and newyears. while sitting on big position of shorting ringgit and klci??

the thing abt rescue a currency is the more u rescue the lower it goes.

why? bcos the rescue by itself is telling a negative story abt the country. and the rescue itself provided more liquidity for the hedgefund to short. can a single central bank defend the trillions of hedgefund industry globally?

it is like u trying to stop a truck running over by putting a kancil infront to block it.

Indonesia moves to rescue rupiah
Publish date: Mon, 8 Dec 00:00
INDONESIA central bank said yesterday it is conducting "measured intervention" in foreign exchange markets, after the rupiah fell to its lowest level against the United States dollar since 2008.

"We don't do excessive intervention, (we do) measured intervention. We will find a new equilibrium," spokesman Peter Jacobs said.

"We are not letting the rupiah depreciate too much."

Spot rupiah earlier slid to 12,348 to the dollar, down nearly 0.5 per cent on the day and taking its fall so far this year to 1.6 per cent.

The rupiah slid to the weakest level in six years as a contraction in the Japanese economy and slowing Chinese demand clouded the outlook for Indonesia's exports.

The rupiah retreated 0.5 per cent to 12,357 per dollar as of 10:08am, prices from local banks show.

"Right now the concern is more external, so I'm watching trends in global demand and broad dollar strength," said Gundy Cahyadi, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd in Singapore. Agencies

all ace counter game over. whatever fundamental also useless.

siva, u r so stubborn, i had said since last week it is forming a head and shoulder pattern and that means game over.

dream all you want on your dream t.p.

ignore my post if it make u feel unpleasant.

current mkt is not the usual drop and then rebound like nothing happened. which has happened countless time in the past.

have u seen any counters rebound from low lately? all keep printing new low. dj up, shanghai up, nikkei up here keep dropping. stock drop, currency drop, and our export value also drop due to bad mkt price, oil, palm etc.

only 1 sector is benefiting from this situation. big semiconductor. gtronic, unisem, mpi.

riggit at 3.50 now...oil at 60 now. this is a perfect opportunity for mr g soros to visit here.

last line of defense for ringgit is 3.80. another 8% drop.
at 3.80, most company dealing with construction, retails. f&B, auto, will goto deep problem. import cost escalate, cant pass to consumer.

all klci put warrant is factoring klci to drop below 1700 substantially. the only strong support for klci is 1600. and that was with the blessing of Oil price staying at 90-100 level.

goldman downgrade oil at 80, say will drop to 75
morgan at 70 downgrade oil, say MAY goto 45.

who else would turn up to shout lower target?

with oil price lower n lower, its a no brainer Malaysia debt will be downgraded to junk status.

if that happen. 1600 also cannot be supported.

do not fool yourself that you are longterm investor bla bla. when tsunami come, no matter how solid built your house is, also gone.

today clearly show that dsonic is turning down for the worst. all prior support would be broken.

bursa is very bearish. ifca on downtrend.. becareful. ACE counters as a group all entering bear and all testing new low everyday. i doubt ifca can survive. if klci have a huge drop due to s&p or moody downgrade.
u can see klci at 1600. and ifca at 50c.

while these downgrade is not a sure thing, yet. however, 5 yrs of bulls has turned into easily 1 yr of bear? or even 6 months?

the only counters that can survive the bear are those who make USD. look at Karex today, breakout pattern. with rm depreciated more than 10% in less than 1 month. u can expect karex earning to automatically up by the equivalent.

banking sector would be hardest hit due to o&g exposure. huge bad debt to write off.

ACE sector, most purely goreng on sentiment, even with strong fundamental, still on downtrend due to the non-marginable status, non-investable status to most fund.

cost is usd65. so if oil drop to usd40 how? stop work order by hs?

then all other expenses keep running.

sure pn17 coming... so i wait at 3 c.

hahaha. u want syiok sendiri, go ahead la, bottom? far from it.

Post removed.Why?

some one gave me a software that can predict what time i would fart. and also the duration of my fart... i tried. no use one. waste time.

Oil tumbles after Morgan Stanley cuts forecasts

In a report dated Dec. 5, the U.S. investment bank said oil prices could fall as low as $43 a barrel next year



at usd 43??

sumatec cost of extraction is usd60.

so closed shop ? no point digging liao. sumatec drop to 3c soon?

Stock: [IFCAMSC]: IFCA MSC BHD
Dec 5, 2014 01:06 AM | Report Abuse

ozzie75, gobless88, Orionpacific

I already sold all. Now I am lot free and waiting for O&G to move.


your rocket science never told u O&G is bearish meh? or they told u its bullish.

both way you are wrong la.

everyday predict down. sure 1 day correct la.

this one pump n dump

mr koon said teach you all to become super trader....this is the ending... very very hilarious.

Posted by Andrew Wong > Dec 8, 2014 09:00 PM | Report Abuse

alpha trader, your confident in megb is it because of smrt buying over it only ?


the consequences of following grrreen horn sifu.

zzzzzzzzzzzzz

still in denial. hahaha

masterkill. alpha trader. this one also laugh till laosai. how?

thanks alpha trader. u make me laugh until laosai la. so bad.

strategy for coming weeks.

1. buy beaten down oil stocks. so many of them.
2. buy technology stock.

no need thank me if u make money.

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

zzzzzzz......

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

very difficult to stop laughing...

this thread always bring me good memory.....

DJ nasdaq +++++++++++10 days ++++ record breaking everyday
nikkei +++++++ xxxx days record breaking everyday

klse ----------10 days.


probability of the following?

klse -+++-+++++

c2spit kantry.