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pearlwhite | Joined since 2015-04-08

Investing Experience Advanced
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Economist/Mathematician by education, trained in finance, assurance and risk. Experience in Manufacturing, FMGC, Construction, Oil&Gas and IT with significant leadership involvement in Marketing/Projects, Operations, SCM, Logistics, HSSEQ, IT, HR, Finance, Risk and Assurance.

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2015-04-09 09:38 | Report Abuse

60sen? Maybe in 2019.
goyang telor investors dream alot, looking at macd, dmi, etc. everyday.
to bid for new contracts, the client will have to come and see new capacity/capsule line
when will the new facility be up and running at 70%? 2H 2016.
Give 9 months to bid for tender, you are looking at 2017.
By that time, 1st Sanofi contract is going to end, no option to extend.
End of day, the same revenue numbers (or maybe lower due to lower USD by that time) but with higher factory costs.Profit margins and value will be lower.

The only thing going for Hovid is at FDA approval. Then again, how many know the patent holder is CAROTECH?

Kantoi!

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2015-04-08 14:20 | Report Abuse

You have to be careful with Hovid. Do not think for a minute that with a high USD dollar and increase capsule capacity of 30% next few months and upto 70% in 2016 is going to increase revenue/profits.

Firstly, revenue is not going to increase (except for the USD strength) because Hovid has not tendered for new business JUST YET. That could take months and years. You should be cautious and may assume new business contracts to come in end 2016 or 2017.

Secondly, increase capacity will lead to increase depreciation and profit increases that are minimal unless supported by NEW CONTRACTS.

Thirdly, taking into account the projected forecasts, you would be looking at 43-45sen FV. Anything above is goreng or high TP dreams.

Finally, from experience and Hovid's founder actions, he would use the analyst to maintain a range bound price, if price exceeds a certain level, out come some analyst report on Hovid.

Take care!