Based on the financial review of Armada with the latest addition of the 3 out of 3 GOOD NEWS, it was determined that (basically, nothing has changed from previously!) :-

PROOF – ARMADA REVENUES ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE DEBT
PROOF - 14.5 YEARS TO FULLY SETTLE DEBT IF REVENUE STABLE FOREVER BUT ITS FIRM IS ONLY UP TO 6.25 YEARS!
PROOF - NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE INTEREST AND TAXES
PROOF – ARMADA CANNOT GET ANY MORE FINANCING

Armada’s ability to secure new contracts is likely to be 0%

PROOF - Armada has lost the momentum as a major player since 2014.
PROOF - Armada has been without a business development / sales team since 2014.
PROOF – Armada embroiled in various allegations from various countries including EU and INDONESIA.
PROOF – Armada’s strategic direction is uncertain due to controversies with its major shareholder.
PROOF – Armada’s behavior as a contractor has been one of litigation.
PROOF - You cannot bid for contracts if you do not have donor tankers.
PROOF – Armada’s recent FPSO is a lemon.

6.25 years to go or 26 Quarters to go. RM80 million net profit per Quarter optimistic assumption. That means RM2.0 billion in profits.

Rm19.6 billion confirmed sales for next 6.25 years. Actual operations profit from Rm19.6 billion is around Rm8.0 billion. Rm8.0 billion has to pay for everything under the Gross Profit line. And this doesn't include principle debt payments of Rm12.5 billion. Q results don't matter. And when oil industry recovers in 2030, Armada's assets are nearly 20 years old. End of life.

It is enough to pay off the RM13.5 billion debts (excluding interest)?

HOW TO MEET THE RM6 BILLION DEFICIT???

How much ADDITIONAL new revenue is needed for Armada?

=================================
Around RM14 billion in new sales / revenue.
=================================

That is not going to be achievable for Armada since it no longer has the reputation to get new contracts.

So it’s the crunch time now. What are the options available to the shareholders?

1. Take Armada private
2. Sell Armada
3. Dispose assets to continue to try to survive

1. Taking Armada private

Do you think that the main shareholders want to do so when Armada is an endless money pit with gutter reputation? Finance 101, get rid before you incur more losses.

2. Sell Armada

No one is buying Armada in this market until 2030. And the new shareholders have to deal with an incompetent management.

And new owners have to come up with an additional RM5 billion to pay off its debts.!!

3. Dispose assets to continue to survive

Assets are worth nothing as long as the market doesn’t recover until 2030. The asset are still being valued too high. Disposing assets wouldn’t be enough to settle Armada’s debts anyway.

With the review of the latest results, it was exceeding our expectations. Our view is now further reinforced that Armada will default. How much time left before Armada defaults? It would be next year when it defaults.

Despite the enthusiasm on the following: -

Speculated improvement in cash flows - Insufficient in 2020
Speculated settlement on Claire - Circa 25% of the asking compensation by Armada
Speculated award of new contracts - Nil probability
Speculated sale of assets - Highest bidder bidding at 10% of current NBVs

Armada would not be aggressively pursuing debt restructuring negotiations if the above were not in positive light. A highly anticipated default will still happen.

Given that the option to take private, to sell out and sell assets are not viable for Armada, what route will Armada take in such a event? PN17 and administrators will come in for sure.

We expect that Armada will be broken into many pieces. For the FPSOs, it would be taken over by their respective JV partners and other assets will be sold off to the highest bidder.

We expect institutional funds to lose all investments and creditors will not be paid 80% what is owed to them while debtors will be taken to court wherever possible.

As for the main shareholder, they have already clawed back their investments when they part disposed in 2011/12.

Looks like its "ride the train for as far as you can" before it breaks down.

Without our PROOFs of Armada's dire situation, it would be a different story today for Armada.

No one in its Board, Management team and UT would have been able to anticipate URGENT AND IMMEDIATE need for debt restructuring.

If they were left on their own without our PROOFs, by the time they realised it, it would have been too late if it were just started to restructure now.

Without us, Armada would not have undertaken management decision to address its fundamental issues, beef up its team, etc, etc.

BUT THAT IS TOO LATE. Even if Armada manages to have a team for FPSO by year end, you are looking at FPSO awards for 2024 onwards.

Jason Tay has been tasked to source for headcount for the FPSO team.

Armada Kraken is a lemon vessel. No amount of work to rectify would solve the low production issues. The target was 80,000 barrels per day. Work is performed everyday to maintain 35,000 barrels per day, otherwise, it would produce 20,000 barrels per day.

Which oil company wants to award Armada if they produce lemon vessels?

Maxis reminds us of the great UMW-Toyota times of the 1990s and 2000s. The issues were the same, overpriced for the repackaged old technology with superficial styling change. Paying more for basic essential service and get a "nobody knows" One Club membership.

Being in the One Club doesn't make you a VVIP. Its all fake driven ego.

Maxis packages should be RM18, RM28 and RM38 for everything under the sun.

This company's financials should be audited every quarter from now on.

Every quarter, net cash from operations is -RM2 million (despite the increase in revenue every quarter) and total debts outstanding is RM11.5 million.

When you look at the balance sheet, assets are deliberately revalued for the purposes of obtaining financing. Why?

This company is no longer a going concern from its principle activities and using the bank facilities to survive (against its long term assets). The provision of financial assistance from the holding co. (which really is just a holding co. with zero revenues of its own) really doesn't mean anything.

When all Current Assets - Total Liabilities = it equals just the value of the shareholders funds back by its Properties value, it begs the question: -

1) The actual market value of its properties
2) The actual market value of is stocks
3) Whether it is a going concern
4) Whether it should still be listed

Beware as the main shareholders may be exploiting its financing deals to draw a salary without interest of sustaining the company.

Based on the financial review of Armada with the latest addition of the 3 out of 3 GOOD NEWS, it was determined that (basically, nothing has changed from previously!) :-

PROOF – ARMADA REVENUES ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE DEBT
PROOF - 14.5 YEARS TO FULLY SETTLE DEBT IF REVENUE STABLE FOREVER BUT ITS FIRM IS ONLY UP TO 6.25 YEARS!
PROOF - NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE INTEREST AND TAXES
PROOF – ARMADA CANNOT GET ANY MORE FINANCING

Armada’s ability to secure new contracts is likely to be 0%

PROOF - Armada has lost the momentum as a major player since 2014.
PROOF - Armada has been without a business development / sales team since 2014.
PROOF – Armada embroiled in various allegations from various countries including EU and INDONESIA.
PROOF – Armada’s strategic direction is uncertain due to controversies with its major shareholder.
PROOF – Armada’s behavior as a contractor has been one of litigation.
PROOF - You cannot bid for contracts if you do not have donor tankers.
PROOF – Armada’s recent FPSO is a lemon.

6.25 years to go or 26 Quarters to go. RM80 million net profit per Quarter optimistic assumption. That means RM2.0 billion in profits.

Rm19.6 billion confirmed sales for next 6.25 years. Actual operations profit from Rm19.6 billion is around Rm8.0 billion. Rm8.0 billion has to pay for everything under the Gross Profit line. And this doesn't include principle debt payments of Rm12.5 billion. Q results don't matter. And when oil industry recovers in 2030, Armada's assets are nearly 20 years old. End of life.

It is enough to pay off the RM13.5 billion debts (excluding interest)?

HOW TO MEET THE RM6 BILLION DEFICIT???

How much ADDITIONAL new revenue is needed for Armada?

=================================
Around RM14 billion in new sales / revenue.
=================================

That is not going to be achievable for Armada since it no longer has the reputation to get new contracts.

So it’s the crunch time now. What are the options available to the shareholders?

1. Take Armada private
2. Sell Armada
3. Dispose assets to continue to try to survive

1. Taking Armada private

Do you think that the main shareholders want to do so when Armada is an endless money pit with gutter reputation? Finance 101, get rid before you incur more losses.

2. Sell Armada

No one is buying Armada in this market until 2030. And the new shareholders have to deal with an incompetent management.

And new owners have to come up with an additional RM5 billion to pay off its debts.!!

3. Dispose assets to continue to survive

Assets are worth nothing as long as the market doesn’t recover until 2030. The asset are still being valued too high. Disposing assets wouldn’t be enough to settle Armada’s debts anyway.

With the review of the latest results, it was exceeding our expectations. Our view is now further reinforced that Armada will default. How much time left before Armada defaults? It would be next year when it defaults.

Despite the enthusiasm on the following: -

Speculated improvement in cash flows - Insufficient in 2020
Speculated settlement on Claire - Circa 25% of the asking compensation by Armada
Speculated award of new contracts - Nil probability
Speculated sale of assets - Highest bidder bidding at 10% of current NBVs

Armada would not be aggressively pursuing debt restructuring negotiations if the above were not in positive light. A highly anticipated default will still happen.

Given that the option to take private, to sell out and sell assets are not viable for Armada, what route will Armada take in such a event? PN17 and administrators will come in for sure.

We expect that Armada will be broken into many pieces. For the FPSOs, it would be taken over by their respective JV partners and other assets will be sold off to the highest bidder.

We expect institutional funds to lose all investments and creditors will not be paid 80% what is owed to them while debtors will be taken to court wherever possible.

As for the main shareholder, they have already clawed back their investments when they part disposed in 2011/12.

Looks like its "ride the train for as far as you can" before it breaks down.

People just do not seem to remember or just refuse to research the shareholding movement.

There was a point in time, a few years back, when PNB (under Wahid Omar, a staunch supporter of Armada) sold its entire stake in Armada. At that moment too, EPF sold its stake in Armada to below 5%. Yes, they were once not considered a substantial shareholder.

When that happened, Armada was dangerously going to tank in price. Hence, there was a concerted effort to have EPF to up its take by another 3% which is what you have until a month or so ago to support Armada's share price.

But with the debt crisis and the tank in share price to what it is now, EPF could not maintain support for Armada (in the larger scheme of things).

Armada would be in a better off position at 15 sens because it is a risk and threat to the banks if they were not going to support Armada. PN17 is so easy to do and who loses at the end of the day?

The main shareholders have already made monies out of Armada in 2012, what have they got to lose? Nothing. The banks have.

With the new loan, it makes more sense to stay at 15 sens.

What is the minimum quarterly profit result for Armada to be acceptable?

Questions are being asked, hopes are being made, and the waiting continues, while no one here attempts to answer.

RM250 million in Net Profit for every quarter (excluding non cash write backs aka. adjusted net profits) on average for the next 6.5 years is the minimum level that Armada to achieve

Anything above that would great!

We are again informed of another Armada insider/contractor being sent to i3. Thank you informants!

Another new stooge is here to promote Armada. How much are they paying you this time? You never gotten a deal with Armada for years, and now you are here under their instructions?

https://sg.linkedin.com/in/jason-tay-646bb19

We have said months ago, that Armada will be a PN17 company and will get the haircut it needs.

We knew from then that the share price would have been manipulated by certain vested individuals to ensure that Armada continues to get funding, either by negotiation (obviously this didn't work) and thereafter threats from the Ministry of Finance.

Only now, some of you realise.........

The original shareholders have all sold their shares and have made their monies in 2012.

The share price plunged further when AK sold a 7.33% stake in Bumi Armada through his private entity Objektif Bersatu Sdn Bhd, giving him a current shareholding of 34.92%.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ananda-krishnan-looking-exit-bumi-armada

A total of 293 million Bumi Armada Bhd shares valued RM1.15bil were sold in an off-market deal by shareholders Ombak Damai Sdn Bhd, Wijaya Sinar Sdn Bhd and Wijaya Baiduri Sdn Bhd.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2012/04/28/three-bumi-armada-shareholders-sell-rm115bil-worth-of-shares/

===

And we have said previously,

Stock: [ARMADA]: BUMI ARMADA BHD
Nov 30, 2018 9:16 AM | Report Abuse

Going the PN17 route will give Armada the haircut it needs.

Stock: [ARMADA]: BUMI ARMADA BHD
Dec 3, 2018 11:08 AM | Report Abuse

Look like the strike price is 15 sens thereabouts.

===

Like clockwork again, using Lim Guan Eng to threaten the banks to lend Armada!

https://www.nst.com.my/business/2019/03/470867/finance-minister-hints-windfall-tax-unless-banks-start-being-flexible

===

Definitely, 5 days average price would yield below 20 sen.

Who do you think is going to buy Armada? Will it will be taken private? Without Ananda’s name to it, what will happen to the share price?

WOULD YOU HAVE ANY CHANCE TO REACT WHEN YOU COME TO KNOW ABOUT IT?

Based on the financial review of Armada with the latest addition of the 2 out of 3 GOOD NEWS, it was determined that (basically, nothing has changed from previously!) :-

PROOF – ARMADA REVENUES ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE DEBT
PROOF - 14.25 YEARS TO FULLY SETTLE DEBT IF REVENUE STABLE FOREVER BUT ITS FIRM IS ONLY UP TO 6.5 YEARS!
PROOF - NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE INTEREST AND TAXES
PROOF – ARMADA CANNOT GET ANY MORE FINANCING

Armada’s ability to secure new contracts is likely to be 0%

PROOF - Armada has lost the momentum as a major player since 2014.
PROOF - Armada has been without a business development / sales team since 2014.
PROOF – Armada embroiled in various allegations from various countries including EU and INDONESIA.
PROOF – Armada’s strategic direction is uncertain due to controversies with its major shareholder.
PROOF – Armada’s behavior as a contractor has been one of litigation.
PROOF - You cannot bid for contracts if you do not have donor tankers.
PROOF – Armada’s recent FPSO is a lemon.

6.5 years to go or 27 Quarters to go. RM80 million net profit per Quarter optimistic assumption. That means RM2.1 billion in profits.

Rm20.5 billion confirmed sales for next 6.5 years. Actual operations profit from Rm20.5 billion is around Rm8.5 billion. Rm8.5 billion has to pay for everything under the Gross Profit line. And this doesn't include principle debt payments of Rm12.5 billion. Q results don't matter. And when oil industry recovers in 2030, Armada's assets are nearly 20 years old. End of life.

It is enough to pay off the RM13 billion debts (excluding interest)?

HOW TO MEET THE RM5.5 BILLION DEFICIT???

How much ADDITIONAL new revenue is needed for Armada?

=================================
Around RM13 billion in new sales / revenue.
=================================

That is not going to be achievable for Armada since it no longer has the reputation to get new contracts.

So it’s the crunch time now. What are the options available to the shareholders?

1. Take Armada private
2. Sell Armada
3. Dispose assets to continue to try to survive

1. Taking Armada private

Do you think that the main shareholders want to do so when Armada is an endless money pit with gutter reputation? Finance 101, get rid before you incur more losses.

2. Sell Armada

No one is buying Armada in this market until 2030. And the new shareholders have to deal with an incompetent management.

And new owners have to come up with an additional RM5 billion to pay off its debts.!!

3. Dispose assets to continue to survive

Assets are worth nothing as long as the market doesn’t recover until 2030. The asset are still being valued too high. Disposing assets wouldn’t be enough to settle Armada’s debts anyway.

With the review of the latest results, it was exceeding our expectations. Our view is now further reinforced that Armada will default. How much time left before Armada defaults? It would be next year when it defaults.

Despite the enthusiasm on the following: -

Speculated improvement in cash flows - Insufficient in 2020
Speculated settlement on Claire - Circa 25% of the asking compensation by Armada
Speculated award of new contracts - Nil probability
Speculated sale of assets - Highest bidder bidding at 10% of current NBVs

Armada would not be aggressively pursuing debt restructuring negotiations if the above were not in positive light. A highly anticipated default will still happen.

Given that the option to take private, to sell out and sell assets are not viable for Armada, what route will Armada take in such a event? PN17 and administrators will come in for sure.

We expect that Armada will be broken into many pieces. For the FPSOs, it would be taken over by their respective JV partners and other assets will be sold off to the highest bidder.

We expect institutional funds to lose all investments and creditors will not be paid 80% what is owed to them while debtors will be taken to court wherever possible.

As for the main shareholder, they have already clawed back their investments when they part disposed in 2011/12.

Looks like its "ride the train for as far as you can" before it breaks down.

Will the old CEO be arrested when he lands in Amsterdam? Will be EU file charges for crimes committed?

2 out of 3 so called big news out. And what is the result? Nothing changed.

Waiting the last big one? Definitely won't be better than KWG98 for sure.

Then what? Sing the good Q results?

==

A deserving mention is that this KWG-98 was worked on since 2013 and collaboration with Shapoorji in that same year too. To those in that era, kudos. A-lot of continuing behind the scenes work were done to ensure that this deal would happen, and now it has in 2019.

Congratulations to the Old Armadians!

==

However,

Based on the financial review of Armada with the latest addition of the KWG-98, it was determined that (basically, nothing has changed from previously!) :-

PROOF – ARMADA REVENUES ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE DEBT
PROOF - 14.25 YEARS TO FULLY SETTLE DEBT IF REVENUE STABLE FOREVER BUT ITS FIRM IS ONLY UP TO 6.5 YEARS!
PROOF - NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE INTEREST AND TAXES
PROOF – ARMADA CANNOT GET ANY MORE FINANCING

Armada’s ability to secure new contracts is likely to be 0%

PROOF - Armada has lost the momentum as a major player since 2014.
PROOF - Armada has been without a business development / sales team since 2014.
PROOF – Armada embroiled in various allegations from various countries including EU and INDONESIA.
PROOF – Armada’s strategic direction is uncertain due to controversies with its major shareholder.
PROOF – Armada’s behavior as a contractor has been one of litigation.
PROOF - You cannot bid for contracts if you do not have donor tankers.
PROOF – Armada’s recent FPSO is a lemon.

6.5 years to go or 27 Quarters to go. RM80 million net profit per Quarter optimistic assumption. That means RM2.1 billion in profits.

Rm20.5 billion confirmed sales for next 6.5 years. Actual operations profit from Rm20.5 billion is around Rm8.5 billion. Rm8.5 billion has to pay for everything under the Gross Profit line. And this doesn't include principle debt payments of Rm12.5 billion. Q results don't matter. And when oil industry recovers in 2030, Armada's assets are nearly 20 years old. End of life.

It is enough to pay off the RM13 billion debts (excluding interest)?

HOW TO MEET THE RM5.5 BILLION DEFICIT???

How much ADDITIONAL new revenue is needed for Armada?

=================================
Around RM13 billion in new sales / revenue.
=================================

That is not going to be achievable for Armada since it no longer has the reputation to get new contracts.

So it’s the crunch time now. What are the options available to the shareholders?

1. Take Armada private
2. Sell Armada
3. Dispose assets to continue to try to survive

1. Taking Armada private

Do you think that the main shareholders want to do so when Armada is an endless money pit with gutter reputation? Finance 101, get rid before you incur more losses.

2. Sell Armada

No one is buying Armada in this market until 2030. And the new shareholders have to deal with an incompetent management.

And new owners have to come up with an additional RM5 billion to pay off its debts.!!

3. Dispose assets to continue to survive

Assets are worth nothing as long as the market doesn’t recover until 2030. The asset are still being valued too high. Disposing assets wouldn’t be enough to settle Armada’s debts anyway.

With the review of the latest results, it was exceeding our expectations. Our view is now further reinforced that Armada will default. How much time left before Armada defaults? It would be next year when it defaults.

Despite the enthusiasm on the following: -

Speculated improvement in cash flows - Insufficient in 2020
Speculated settlement on Claire - Circa 25% of the asking compensation by Armada
Speculated award of new contracts - Nil probability
Speculated sale of assets - Highest bidder bidding at 10% of current NBVs

Armada would not be aggressively pursuing debt restructuring negotiations if the above were not in positive light. A highly anticipated default will still happen.

Given that the option to take private, to sell out and sell assets are not viable for Armada, what route will Armada take in such a event? PN17 and administrators will come in for sure.

We expect that Armada will be broken into many pieces. For the FPSOs, it would be taken over by their respective JV partners and other assets will be sold off to the highest bidder.

We expect institutional funds to lose all investments and creditors will not be paid 80% what is owed to them while debtors will be taken to court wherever possible.

As for the main shareholder, they have already clawed back their investments when they part disposed in 2011/12.

Looks like its "ride the train for as far as you can" before it breaks down.


hic!

Is this the so-called good news that everyone has been hoping for? 5 sen up in target price? LOL.

As expected, Armada's role this time is just an operator. 30% as opposed to 49% in the previous 2 FPSOs in India?

This piece is news is a slight misrepresentation as the contract was won by Shapoorji not Armada. Financing will be by Shapoorji. Construction of vessel will be by Shapoorji. Ownership of vessel will be by Shapoorji.

Remember, the main shareholder is a wanted man in India!

Wait, FPSO Olombendo is not the only FPSO being divested.

More good news to come as they say.

Hic.

Lets be very clear of all the statements being made here.

1) Contract Award - KWG-98
Unlike the Armada Sterling I & II, when this contract is awarded, it will be awarded to SP. Financing would be on SP's name, construction will be by SP and ownership of vessel will be SP. Armada would be just the operator.

Which is why Armada had never hyped it in its media machine because it knows its just an operator this time around.

2) Contact Award - Armada Installer
A very competitive and no profit offer by Armada just to seal the deal, enough to cover variable costs. Adds only 5% to gross profit.

3) Conclusion of financing restructure
Still does not avoid default in 2020 and if surmounted, cannot avoid default of this new deal in 5 years time.

To Bumi Armada Berhad:
- The Main Shareholders
- The Board of Directors
- The Management

Please listen and reflect from this message from 1.28 onwards.

Pay attention from 5.00 onwards of what you have not been doing.

Reflect on yourselves and listen to the message from 6.00 onwards till 6.45. "Consensus or dictatorship, ....don't know what leadership is about....need to show the future".

Change your ways!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BqmL8UV5dE4

Based on the financial review of Armada, it was determined that: -

PROOF – ARMADA REVENUES ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE DEBT
PROOF - 14.25 YEARS TO FULLY SETTLE DEBT IF REVENUE STABLE FOREVER BUT ITS FIRM IS ONLY UP TO 6.5 YEARS!
PROOF - NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE INTEREST AND TAXES
PROOF – ARMADA CANNOT GET ANY MORE FINANCING

Armada’s ability to secure new contracts is likely to be 0%

PROOF - Armada has lost the momentum as a major player since 2014.
PROOF - Armada has been without a business development / sales team since 2014.
PROOF – Armada embroiled in various allegations from various countries including EU and INDONESIA.
PROOF – Armada’s strategic direction is uncertain due to controversies with its major shareholder.
PROOF – Armada’s behavior as a contractor has been one of litigation.
PROOF - You cannot bid for contracts if you do not have donor tankers.
PROOF – Armada’s recent FPSO is a lemon.

6.5 years to go or 27 Quarters to go. RM80 million net profit per Quarter optimistic assumption. That means RM2.1 billion in profits.

Rm20.5 billion confirmed sales for next 6.5 years. Actual operations profit from Rm20.5 billion is around Rm8.5 billion. Rm8.5 billion has to pay for everything under the Gross Profit line. And this doesn't include principle debt payments of Rm12.5 billion. Q results don't matter. And when oil industry recovers in 2030, Armada's assets are nearly 20 years old. End of life.

It is enough to pay off the RM13 billion debts (excluding interest)?

HOW TO MEET THE RM5.5 BILLION DEFICIT???

How much ADDITIONAL new revenue is needed for Armada?

=================================
Around RM13 billion in new sales / revenue.
=================================

That is not going to be achievable for Armada since it no longer has the reputation to get new contracts.

So it’s the crunch time now. What are the options available to the shareholders?

1. Take Armada private
2. Sell Armada
3. Dispose assets to continue to try to survive

1. Taking Armada private

Do you think that the main shareholders want to do so when Armada is an endless money pit with gutter reputation? Finance 101, get rid before you incur more losses.

2. Sell Armada

No one is buying Armada in this market until 2030. And the new shareholders have to deal with an incompetent management.

And new owners have to come up with an additional RM5 billion to pay off its debts.!!

3. Dispose assets to continue to survive

Assets are worth nothing as long as the market doesn’t recover until 2030. The asset are still being valued too high. Disposing assets wouldn’t be enough to settle Armada’s debts anyway.

With the review of the latest results, it was exceeding our expectations. Our view is now further reinforced that Armada will default. How much time left before Armada defaults? It would be next year when it defaults.

Despite the enthusiasm on the following: -

Speculated improvement in cash flows - Insufficient in 2020
Speculated settlement on Claire - Circa 25% of the asking compensation by Armada
Speculated award of new contracts - Nil probability
Speculated sale of assets - Highest bidder bidding at 10% of current NBVs

Armada would not be aggressively pursuing debt restructuring negotiations if the above were not in positive light. A highly anticipated default will still happen.

Given that the option to take private, to sell out and sell assets are not viable for Armada, what route will Armada take in such a event? PN17 and administrators will come in for sure.

We expect that Armada will be broken into many pieces. For the FPSOs, it would be taken over by their respective JV partners and other assets will be sold off to the highest bidder.

We expect institutional funds to lose all investments and creditors will not be paid 80% what is owed to them while debtors will be taken to court wherever possible.

As for the main shareholder, they have already clawed back their investments when they part disposed in 2011/12.

Looks like its "ride the train for as far as you can" before it breaks down.

Even the conclusion of the so-called new-debt to settle debt doesn't change anything.

hic!

Stock: [ARMADA]: BUMI ARMADA BHD

Jan 7, 2019 2:52 PM | Report Abuse

Why did UOB downgrade? Again, another lack of understanding of the O&G market.

UOB is a Singaporean bank, headquartered in Singapore. How many are aware that UOB was negatively exposed to the O&G market in Singapore? Or in Asian investor speak, UOB burnt its fingers?

UOB experienced this in Singapore a few years ago, so they are now "enlightened". They have heard it, seen it and now learnt from it.
======

The are witnessing YET AGAIN the classic steps taken by an O&G company to total shutdown. "Seen em' all" as they say?

SAD BUT TRUE.

ERRORS after ERRORS.

a) Taking on MORE and MORE EXPENSIVE DEBT to settle the OLD DEBT.

b) INCREASING TOTAL DEBT by RM1 billion due within 6.75 years to 13 billion.

c) INCREASING INABILITY to settle debt by ANOTHER RM500 million to RM5.5 billion.

d) INCREASING REVENUE needed to cover DEBT gap by RM1 billion i.e. RM13 (12 +1) billion of new REVENUE is needed to cover RM5.5 billion within 6.75 years. Which is say Armada's FIRM Orderbook has to be RM34 billion NOW!!!

SAD but TRUE.

The PR engine of the Main Shareholder were put into speedy action by "people with knowledge on the matter". Look at the words "Billionaire Ananda Krishnan is said to near US$500m loan deal". Such a catchy phrase!

With this latest FIASCO yet again, the below statement is now appended to now read (numbers relating to debt has gone up and revenues have gone down): -

Based on the financial review of Armada, it was determined that: -

PROOF – ARMADA REVENUES ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE DEBT
PROOF - 14 YEARS TO FULLY SETTLE DEBT IF REVENUE STABLE FOREVER BUT ITS FIRM IS ONLY UP TO 6.75 YEARS!
PROOF - NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE INTEREST AND TAXES
PROOF – ARMADA CANNOT GET ANY MORE FINANCING

Armada’s ability to secure new contracts is likely to be 0%

PROOF - Armada has lost the momentum as a major player since 2014.
PROOF - Armada has been without a business development / sales team since 2014.
PROOF – Armada embroiled in various allegations from various countries including EU and INDONESIA.
PROOF – Armada’s strategic direction is uncertain due to controversies with its major shareholder.
PROOF – Armada’s behavior as a contractor has been one of litigation.
PROOF - You cannot bid for contracts if you do not have donor tankers.
PROOF – Armada’s recent FPSO is a lemon.

6.75 years to go or 27 Quarters to go. RM80 million net profit per Quarter optimistic assumption. That means RM2.1 billion in profits.

Rm20.5 billion confirmed sales for next 6.75 years. Actual operations profit from Rm20.5 billion is around Rm8.5 billion. Rm8.5 billion has to pay for everything under the Gross Profit line. And this doesn't include principle debt payments of Rm12.5 billion. Q results don't matter. And when oil industry recovers in 2030, Armada's assets are nearly 20 years old. End of life.

It is enough to pay off the RM13 billion debts (excluding interest)?

HOW TO MEET THE RM5.5 BILLION DEFICIT???

How much ADDITIONAL new revenue is needed for Armada?

=================================
Around RM13 billion in new sales / revenue.
=================================

That is not going to be achievable for Armada since it no longer has the reputation to get new contracts.

So it’s the crunch time now. What are the options available to the shareholders?

1. Take Armada private
2. Sell Armada
3. Dispose assets to continue to try to survive

1. Taking Armada private

Do you think that the main shareholders want to do so when Armada is an endless money pit with gutter reputation? Finance 101, get rid before you incur more losses.

2. Sell Armada

No one is buying Armada in this market until 2030. And the new shareholders have to deal with an incompetent management.

And new owners have to come up with an additional RM5 billion to pay off its debts.!!

3. Dispose assets to continue to survive

Assets are worth nothing as long as the market doesn’t recover until 2030. The asset are still being valued too high. Disposing assets wouldn’t be enough to settle Armada’s debts anyway.

With the review of the latest results, it was exceeding our expectations. Our view is now further reinforced that Armada will default. How much time left before Armada defaults? It would be next year when it defaults.

Despite the enthusiasm on the following: -

Speculated improvement in cash flows - Insufficient in 2020
Speculated settlement on Claire - Circa 25% of the asking compensation by Armada
Speculated award of new contracts - Nil probability
Speculated sale of assets - Highest bidder bidding at 10% of current NBVs

Armada would not be aggressively pursuing debt restructuring negotiations if the above were not in positive light. A highly anticipated default will still happen.

Given that the option to take private, to sell out and sell assets are not viable for Armada, what route will Armada take in such a event? PN17 and administrators will come in for sure.

We expect that Armada will be broken into many pieces. For the FPSOs, it would be taken over by their respective JV partners and other assets will be sold off to the highest bidder.

We expect institutional funds to lose all investments and creditors will not be paid 80% what is owed to them while debtors will be taken to court wherever possible.

As for the main shareholder, they have already clawed back their investments when they part disposed in 2011/12.

Looks like its "ride the train for as far as you can" before it breaks down.

The last disclosed report from Armada was 1st March 2019. As of 25th March 2019, it has been approximately 24 days.

In these 24 days what have we witnessed? We have witnessed 2 recurring themes.

1) Investors / Speculators

As we have expected, time and time again, these individuals and/or groups of individuals (“they”) are not really interested in Armada save for making profit from it in the stock market and vanish when they have reaped it when ripe. They will promote only news that benefits them despite the contrary. They will promote “quick-fix solutions” that are beyond the realm of common sense and real work experience. That is their nature and we do not blame them for it.

As we have mentioned before, the Board and the Main Shareholders do not think very highly of these individuals and is always a butt of all jokes during the Board meetings. We shall not delve into the “memes” that are used for them.

But take note, “they” are the last on the list in the minds of the Board and Management. There will be no mercy when the time comes.

2) Misrepresentations and/or Incompetence

We have seen 4 issues being brought up.

a) Kraken Daily Production Rate.

Kraken’s contractual Daily Production Rate is 80,000bpd. For the last quarter, it has been around 35,000bpd to 50,000bpd; it is less than 50% of what Armada Kraken should be producing most of the time.

Maintenance work is conducted on a scheduled basis; there is a plan. However, when maintenance work has to be carried out EVERYDAY on every module on Armada Kraken, it is a serious problem. The problem is that if this daily maintenance work is not carried out, production levels will be less than 35,000bpd.

There are those who are insinuating that the contractual bpd is 50,000bpd. It is not. It is 80,000bpd. And if daily maintenance work is not done, expect 20,000bpd.

Armada Kraken is a LEMON FPSO.

We shall not delve into the other recent FPSOs which are not as LEMONISH as Armada Kraken but are also LEMONS nonetheless.

b) Cash flow improvements

We have seen certain individuals and their cohorts insisting that 2018 cash flow has improved and will do so in 2019. Armada was insinuated as “in good financial standing for a very long time to come”. This went on for a few weeks.

However, it was until another individual highlighted, rather glaringly, that despite the improvement in cash flows, there is a RM5.7 billion short term debt due. Surprisingly, these individuals then changed their tune that debt restructuring is necessary.

It is either misrepresentation but we more inclined to brand it “incompetence”. If these are the individuals running Armada and assisting Armada on behalf of the Main Shareholder, one wonders why Armada is not a going concern.

c) Additional Capital Investment by Main Shareholder

Many assumed that Armada like a “darling company” to its Main Shareholder like Maxis and Astro. Well, Armada is actually not a “darling company”. Armada was “rescued” by the Main Shareholder many years ago, and the Main Shareholder has since that time, been trying to sell Armada till this very day, e.g. MISC for example.

Armada was listed to monetize its “value”. In 2012, the Associates of the Main Shareholder have more or less disposed on their shareholdings and the Main Shareholder has disposed some of theirs. This was to the displeasure of the market. Despite, this, the Main Shareholder and their Associates have already recouped their investments.

The Main Shareholder is not going to invest in Armada, due to the incompetency of the Board and Management, RM billions more just to stablise Armada. Let’s not even talk about putting additional capital into growing Armada.

No matter how much funds is put into Armada, Armada is no longer what it was since the start of 2015.

d) Sale of Armada to Potential Competitors

While the stock price of Armada may be attractive for a takeover, albeit up to a maximum of 40%, one must realise that even at a takeover price of RM0.10 per share, it is going to put a tremendous strain on the acquiring company or Private Equity Investor.

MISC has been mentioned and so too was Yinson. What will be the fate of these companies if they had to make up for the shortfall of RM5 billion debt? An oversight perhaps on the part of the rumour mongers?

In any event, the price tag for Armada by the Main Shareholder is not RM0.10. It is 30 times that and nobody is going to pay that kind of money that inevitably bankrupt the acquiring company within 1 year.

If the consortium which includes Modec cannot get financing and the underwriters cannot underwrite what makes you think Armada can do it? Get real. Don't flog a dead cat.

SP will own and lease the FPSO to ONGC. Armada is just the operator.

Based on the financial review of Armada, it was determined that: -

PROOF – ARMADA REVENUES ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE DEBT
PROOF - 13 YEARS TO FULLY SETTLE DEBT IF REVENUE STABLE FOREVER BUT ITS FIRM IS ONLY UP TO 7 YEARS!
PROOF - NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE INTEREST AND TAXES
PROOF – ARMADA CANNOT GET ANY MORE FINANCING

Armada’s ability to secure new contracts is likely to be 0%

PROOF - Armada has lost the momentum as a major player since 2014.
PROOF - Armada has been without a business development / sales team since 2014.
PROOF – Armada embroiled in various allegations from various countries including EU and INDONESIA.
PROOF – Armada’s strategic direction is uncertain due to controversies with its major shareholder.
PROOF – Armada’s behavior as a contractor has been one of litigation.
PROOF - You cannot bid for contracts if you do not have donor tankers.
PROOF – Armada’s recent FPSO is a lemon.

7 years to go or 28 Quarters to go. RM80 million net profit per Quarter optimistic assumption. That means RM2.24 billion in profits.

Rm21 billion confirmed sales for next 7/8 years. Actual operations profit from Rm21 billion is around Rm9 billion. Rm9 billion has to pay for everything under the Gross Profit line. And this doesn't include principle debt payments of Rm12 billion. Q results don't matter. And when oil industry recovers in 2030, Armada's assets are nearly 20 years old. End of life.

It is enough to pay off the RM12 billion debts (excluding interest)?

HOW TO MEET THE RM5 BILLION DEFICIT???

How much ADDITIONAL new revenue is needed for Armada?

=================================
Around RM12 billion in new sales / revenue NOW!
=================================

That is not going to be achievable for Armada since it no longer has the reputation to get new contracts.

So it’s the crunch time now. What are the options available to the shareholders?

1. Take Armada private
2. Sell Armada
3. Dispose assets to continue to try to survive

1. Taking Armada private

Do you think that the main shareholders want to do so when Armada is an endless money pit with gutter reputation? Finance 101, get rid before you incur more losses.

2. Sell Armada

No one is buying Armada in this market until 2030. And the new shareholders have to deal with an incompetent management.

And new owners have to come up with an additional RM5 billion to pay off its debts.!!

3. Dispose assets to continue to survive

Assets are worth nothing as long as the market doesn’t recover until 2030. The asset are still being valued too high. Disposing assets wouldn’t be enough to settle Armada’s debts anyway.

With the review of the latest results, it was exceeding our expectations. Our view is now further reinforced that Armada will default. How much time left before Armada defaults? It would be next year when it defaults.

Despite the enthusiasm on the following: -

Speculated improvement in cash flows - Insufficient in 2020
Speculated settlement on Claire - Circa 25% of the asking compensation by Armada
Speculated award of new contracts - Nil probability
Speculated sale of assets - Highest bidder bidding at 10% of current NBVs

Armada would not be aggressively pursuing debt restructuring negotiations if the above were not in positive light. A highly anticipated default will still happen.

Given that the option to take private, to sell out and sell assets are not viable for Armada, what route will Armada take in such a event? PN17 and administrators will come in for sure.

We expect that Armada will be broken into many pieces. For the FPSOs, it would be taken over by their respective JV partners and other assets will be sold off to the highest bidder.

We expect institutional funds to lose all investments and creditors will not be paid 80% what is owed to them while debtors will be taken to court wherever possible.

As for the main shareholder, they have already clawed back their investments when they part disposed in 2011/12.

Looks like its "ride the train for as far as you can" before it breaks down.

Additional response to the above text is

Speculated improvement in cash flows - Insufficient in 2020
Speculated settlement on Claire - Circa 25% of the asking compensation by Armada
Speculated award of new contracts - Nil probability
Speculated sale of assets - Highest bidder bidding at 10% of current NBVs

Take note.

Based on the financial review of Armada, it was determined that: -

PROOF – ARMADA REVENUES ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE DEBT
PROOF - 13 YEARS TO FULLY SETTLE DEBT IF REVENUE STABLE FOREVER BUT ITS FIRM IS ONLY UP TO 7 YEARS!
PROOF - NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE INTEREST AND TAXES
PROOF – ARMADA CANNOT GET ANY MORE FINANCING

Armada’s ability to secure new contracts is likely to be 0%

PROOF - Armada has lost the momentum as a major player since 2014.
PROOF - Armada has been without a business development / sales team since 2014.
PROOF – Armada embroiled in various allegations from various countries including EU and INDONESIA.
PROOF – Armada’s strategic direction is uncertain due to controversies with its major shareholder.
PROOF – Armada’s behavior as a contractor has been one of litigation.
PROOF - You cannot bid for contracts if you do not have donor tankers.
PROOF – Armada’s recent FPSO is a lemon.

7 years to go or 28 Quarters to go. RM80 million net profit per Quarter optimistic assumption. That means RM2.24 billion in profits.

Rm21 billion confirmed sales for next 7/8 years. Actual operations profit from Rm21 billion is around Rm9 billion. Rm9 billion has to pay for everything under the Gross Profit line. And this doesn't include principle debt payments of Rm12 billion. Q results don't matter. And when oil industry recovers in 2030, Armada's assets are nearly 20 years old. End of life.

It is enough to pay off the RM12 billion debts (excluding interest)?

HOW TO MEET THE RM5 BILLION DEFICIT???

How much ADDITIONAL new revenue is needed for Armada?

=================================
Around RM12 billion in new sales / revenue.
=================================

That is not going to be achievable for Armada since it no longer has the reputation to get new contracts.

So it’s the crunch time now. What are the options available to the shareholders?

1. Take Armada private
2. Sell Armada
3. Dispose assets to continue to try to survive

1. Taking Armada private

Do you think that the main shareholders want to do so when Armada is an endless money pit with gutter reputation? Finance 101, get rid before you incur more losses.

2. Sell Armada

No one is buying Armada in this market until 2030. And the new shareholders have to deal with an incompetent management.

And new owners have to come up with an additional RM5 billion to pay off its debts.!!

3. Dispose assets to continue to survive

Assets are worth nothing as long as the market doesn’t recover until 2030. The asset are still being valued too high. Disposing assets wouldn’t be enough to settle Armada’s debts anyway.

With the review of the latest results, it was exceeding our expectations. Our view is now further reinforced that Armada will default. How much time left before Armada defaults? It would be next year when it defaults.

Despite the enthusiasm on the following: -

Speculated improvement in cash flows - Insufficient in 2020
Speculated settlement on Claire - Circa 25% of the asking compensation by Armada
Speculated award of new contracts - Nil probability
Speculated sale of assets - Highest bidder bidding at 10% of current NBVs

Armada would not be aggressively pursuing debt restructuring negotiations if the above were not in positive light. A highly anticipated default will still happen.

Given that the option to take private, to sell out and sell assets are not viable for Armada, what route will Armada take in such a event? PN17 and administrators will come in for sure.

We expect that Armada will be broken into many pieces. For the FPSOs, it would be taken over by their respective JV partners and other assets will be sold off to the highest bidder.

We expect institutional funds to lose all investments and creditors will not be paid 80% what is owed to them while debtors will be taken to court wherever possible.

As for the main shareholder, they have already clawed back their investments when they part disposed in 2011/12.

Looks like its "ride the train for as far as you can" before it breaks down.

Based on the financial review of Armada, it was determined that: -

PROOF – ARMADA REVENUES ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE DEBT
PROOF - 13 YEARS TO FULLY SETTLE DEBT IF REVENUE STABLE FOREVER BUT ITS FIRM IS ONLY UP TO 7 YEARS!
PROOF - NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE INTEREST AND TAXES
PROOF – ARMADA CANNOT GET ANY MORE FINANCING

Armada’s ability to secure new contracts is likely to be 0%

PROOF - Armada has lost the momentum as a major player since 2014.
PROOF - Armada has been without a business development / sales team since 2014.
PROOF – Armada embroiled in various allegations from various countries including EU and INDONESIA.
PROOF – Armada’s strategic direction is uncertain due to controversies with its major shareholder.
PROOF – Armada’s behavior as a contractor has been one of litigation.
PROOF - You cannot bid for contracts if you do not have donor tankers.
PROOF – Armada’s recent FPSO is a lemon.

7 years to go or 28 Quarters to go. RM80 million net profit per Quarter optimistic assumption. That means RM2.24 billion in profits.

Rm21 billion confirmed sales for next 7/8 years. Actual operations profit from Rm21 billion is around Rm9 billion. Rm9 billion has to pay for everything under the Gross Profit line. And this doesn't include principle debt payments of Rm12 billion. Q results don't matter. And when oil industry recovers in 2030, Armada's assets are nearly 20 years old. End of life.

It is enough to pay off the RM12 billion debts (excluding interest)?

HOW TO MEET THE RM5 BILLION DEFICIT???

How much ADDITIONAL new revenue is needed for Armada?

=================================
Around RM12 billion in new sales / revenue.
=================================

That is not going to be achievable for Armada since it no longer has the reputation to get new contracts.

So it’s the crunch time now. What are the options available to the shareholders?

1. Take Armada private
2. Sell Armada
3. Dispose assets to continue to try to survive

1. Taking Armada private

Do you think that the main shareholders want to do so when Armada is an endless money pit with gutter reputation? Finance 101, get rid before you incur more losses.

2. Sell Armada

No one is buying Armada in this market until 2030. And the new shareholders have to deal with an incompetent management.

And new owners have to come up with an additional RM5 billion to pay off its debts.!!

3. Dispose assets to continue to survive

Assets are worth nothing as long as the market doesn’t recover until 2030. The asset are still being valued too high. Disposing assets wouldn’t be enough to settle Armada’s debts anyway.

With the review of the latest results, it was exceeding our expectations. Our view is now further reinforced that Armada will default. How much time left before Armada defaults? It would be next year when it defaults.

Despite the enthusiasm on the following: -

Speculated improvement in cash flows
Speculated settlement on Claire
Speculated award of new contracts
Speculated sale of assets

Armada would not be aggressively pursuing debt restructuring negotiations if the above were not in positive light. A highly anticipated default will still happen.

Given that the option to take private, to sell out and sell assets are not viable for Armada, what route will Armada take in such a event? PN17 and administrators will come in for sure.

We expect that Armada will be broken into many pieces. For the FPSOs, it would be taken over by their respective JV partners and other assets will be sold off to the highest bidder.

We expect institutional funds to lose all investments and creditors will not be paid 80% what is owed to them while debtors will be taken to court wherever possible.

As for the main shareholder, they have already clawed back their investments when they part disposed in 2011/12.

Looks like its "ride the train for as far as you can" before it breaks down.

We hereby disclose that the individual identified by our Armada contacts (now 30+ identification) who is a UTSB manager in this forum as

mikekim

Please immediately view his past comments. Those comments were consistently and positively identified as frequently said to our Armada contacts by this individual.

We have decided to name the UTSB manager who is in this forum.

This individual was identified after more than 20+ Armada employees verified his verbatim.

Disclosure at 5.00pm today.

We expect that he would ferociously deny this.

Please observe who he talks to and who supports him. Those 2 or 3 individuals are also UTSB operatives.

This is a classic example of a company that should not be listed in the first place.

It is very apparent that this company has loads obsolete stock that should be written off and assets that should be impaired.

Revenue seems to be growing, but GP margins are below 5%. Seems like every RM1 sale has no profits at all!

We are fortunate that we are able to gather critical Armada information.

This particular UTSB corporate finance executive has been consistenty using particular sentences in this forum to rescue Armada when "he" also uses the same exact verbatim in his dealings with Armada employees on a day-to-day basis.

He was identified very easily.

A big thank you to our informants!

Why is UTSB's corporate finance executive in this forum?

Be careful what you post here as you should leave out details of your personal dealings and acquaintances in your attempt rescue Armada.

Stop pretending to be a speculator and go back to work, if there is any.

With an imminent default, i.e. Armada would have not enough cash to repay debts next year, can the new CEO bring about the necessary changes?

Despite the impressive paper qualifications and experience, one thing "doesn't" stand out like a sore thumb.

No Business Development connections with Armada's clients and prospects. No direct line to the their clients CEO. Unfortunate!

With the review of the latest results, it was exceeding our expectations. Our view is now further reinforced that Armada will default. How much time left before Armada defaults? It would be next year when it defaults.

Given that the option to take private, to sell out and sell assets are not viable for Armada, what route will Armada take in such a event? PN17 and administrators will come in for sure.

We expect that Armada will be broken into many pieces. For the FPSOs, it would be taken over by their respective JV partners and other assets will be sold off to the highest bidder.

We expect institutional funds to lose all investments and creditors will not be paid 80% what is owed to them while debtors will be taken to court wherever possible.

As for the main shareholder, they have already clawed back their investments when they part disposed in 2011/12.

The BODs and Executive team ought to tender their resignations WEF and appoint administrators immediately.

**

Why is impairment important? Not because of the amount of writedowns, but the expected economic benefits to be derived from those assets in the foreseeable future is zero.

It means that the auditors have seen Armada's prospect clients and were told no more contract awards in the future. That is the issue. Refer to MFSB9 for more info.

And Armada is to default as they would have just presented their 2019 budget. They just realised of the default few days ago.

Why is impairment important? Not because of the amount of writedowns, but the expected economic benefits to be derived from those assets in the foreseeable future is zero.

It means that the auditors have seen Armada's prospect clients and were told no more contract awards in the future. That is the issue. Refer to MFSB9 for more info.

And Armada is to default as they would have just presented their 2019 budget. They just realised of the default few days ago.

With the review of the latest results, it was exceeding our expectations. Our view is now further reinforced that Armada will default. How much time left before Armada defaults? It would be next year when it defaults.

Given that the option to take private, to sell out and sell assets are not viable for Armada, what route will Armada take in such a event? PN17 and administrators will come in for sure.

We expect that Armada will be broken into many pieces. For the FPSOs, it would be taken over by their respective JV partners and other assets will be sold off to the highest bidder.

We expect institutional funds to lose all investments and creditors will not be paid 80% what is owed to them while debtors will be taken to court wherever possible.

As for the main shareholder, they have already clawed back their investments when they part disposed in 2011/12.

The BODs and Executive team ought to tender their resignations WEF and appoint administrators immediately.

How much time left before Armada defaults? It would be next year when it defaults.

Good news for investors here is that they can continue to try to profit Armada.

Given that the option to take private, to sell out and sell assets are not viable for Armada, what route will Armada take in such a event? PN17 and administrators will come in for sure.

We expect that Armada will be broken into many pieces. For the FPSOs, it would be taken over by their respective JV partners and other assets will be sold off to the highest bidder.

We expect institutional funds to lose all investments and creditors will not be paid 80% what is owed to them while debtors will be taken to court wherever possible.

As for the main shareholder, they have already clawed back their investments when they part disposed in 2011/2012.

So, in the meantime, continue to spam and try to make profit.

Why is UTSB's corporate finance executive in this forum? Be careful what you post here as you should leave out details of your personal dealings and acquaintances in your attempt rescue Armada. Stop pretending to be a speculator and go back to work, if there is any.

One post from pearlwhite leads to 100s of responses from individuals who lost monies in Armada from the Rm1 days. An individual who cannot even fathom impairment, claim to know financial issues with the company from long ago before everyone else has continued to lose monies from the Rm1 days.

We will not stop BURSA investors to try to make monies from the stock market, but make dumbfounded incompetent analyses of what you think you know about running Armada, that we will stop you.

Spam, make noise is ok with us. But not running Armada.

So, RM5 billion debt deficit cannot be met. How much ADDITIONAL new revenue is needed for Armada?

=================================
Around RM12 billion in new sales / revenue.
=================================

That is not going to be achievable for Armada since it no longer has the reputation to get new contracts.

So it’s the crunch time now. What are the options available to the shareholders?

1. Take Armada private
2. Sell Armada
3. Dispose assets to continue to try to survive

1. Taking Armada private

Do you think that the main shareholders want to do so when Armada is an endless money pit with gutter reputation? Finance 101, get rid before you incur more losses.

2. Sell Armada

No one is buying Armada in this market until 2030. And the new shareholders have to deal with an incompetent management.

And new owners have to come up with an additional RM5 billion to pay off its debts.!!

3. Dispose assets to continue to survive

Assets are worth nothing as long as the market doesn’t recover until 2030. The asset are still being valued too high. Disposing assets wouldn’t be enough to settle Armada’s debts anyway.

Looks like its "ride the train for as far as you can" before it breaks down.

Still waiting for Quarter Results? Hoping to rise for the occasion?

7 years to go or 28 Quarters to go. RM80 million net profit per Quarter optimistic assumption. That means RM2.24 billion in profits.

It is enough to pay off the RM12 billion debts (excluding interest)?

HOW TO MEET THE RM5 BILLION DEFICIT???

Is it even enough if you sell off all the assets (apart) from the FPSOs?

Rm21 billion confirmed sales for next 7/8 years. Actual operations profit from Rm21 billion is around Rm9 billion. Rm9 billion has to pay for everything under the Gross Profit line. And this doesn't include principle debt payments of Rm12 billion. Q results don't matter. And when oil industry recovers in 2030, Armada's assets are nearly 20 years old. End of life.

When is Armada going to default on its 1st ever repayment? Can anyone guess? Good news is that it won't be this year. How about next year? Hinting here......

Based on the financial review of Armada, it was determined that: -

PROOF – ARMADA REVENUES ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE DEBT
PROOF - 13 YEARS TO FULLY SETTLE DEBT IF REVENUE STABLE FOREVER BUT ITS FIRM IS ONLY UP TO 7 YEARS!
PROOF - NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE INTEREST AND TAXES
PROOF – ARMADA CANNOT GET ANY MORE FINANCING

Armada’s ability to secure new contracts is likely to be 0%

PROOF - Armada has lost the momentum as a major player since 2014.
PROOF - Armada has been without a business development / sales team since 2014.
PROOF – Armada embroiled in various allegations from various countries including EU and INDONESIA.
PROOF – Armada’s strategic direction is uncertain due to controversies with its major shareholder.
PROOF – Armada’s behavior as a contractor has been one of litigation.
PROOF - You cannot bid for contracts if you do not have donor tankers.
PROOF – Armada’s recent FPSO is a lemon.

Nobody seems to be talking new contracts. Is Armada even doing it?

Investors are so irrational. They think that a quarterly profit is good news for Armada. Even if its quarterly profit is RM100 million, it is still going to be game over for Armada. Armada has not been a going concern since 2014.

The same investors are harping over making a profit from Armada since the 80 sen days years ago. Still at it today with the same modus operandi of incompetence by trying to cover their massive losses form yesteryears with Armada.

Another gross incompetence when investors do not understand the market.

SP is going to own and build the FPSO. Armada is just the operator. No profits here for Armada though.

Hic

Again, investors lack the knowledge and real world experience in dealing with financing.

Armada's debt is restricted by its "debt covenant ratio". This is not debt ratio you learn in books. Its what financial institutions use to manage risk on their borrowers.

Armada is also restricted by its ability to do a rights issue. There is also a ratio that underwriters use to manage the risks from RIs by its clients.

Hic!

Still waiting for Quarter Results? Hoping to rise for the occasion?

7 years to go or 28 Quarters to go. RM80 million net profit per Quarter optimistic assumption. That means RM2.24 billion in profits.

It is enough to pay off the RM12 billion debts (excluding interest)? Is it even enough if you sell off all the assets (apart) from the FPSOs?

Rm21 billion confirmed sales for next 7/8 years. Actual operations profit from Rm21 billion is around Rm9 billion. Rm9 billion has to pay for everything under the Gross Profit line. And this doesn't include principle debt payments of Rm12 billion. Q results don't matter. And when oil industry recovers in 2030, Armada's assets are nearly 20 years old. End of life.

When is Armada going to default on its 1st ever repayment? Can anyone guess? Good news is that it won't be this year. How about next year? Hinting here......

Based on the financial review of Armada, it was determined that: -

PROOF – ARMADA REVENUES ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE DEBT
PROOF - 13 YEARS TO FULLY SETTLE DEBT IF REVENUE STABLE FOREVER BUT ITS FIRM IS ONLY UP TO 7 YEARS!
PROOF - NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE INTEREST AND TAXES
PROOF – ARMADA CANNOT GET ANY MORE FINANCING

Armada’s ability to secure new contracts is likely to be 0%

PROOF - Armada has lost the momentum as a major player since 2014.
PROOF - Armada has been without a business development / sales team since 2014.
PROOF – Armada embroiled in various allegations from various countries including EU and INDONESIA.
PROOF – Armada’s strategic direction is uncertain due to controversies with its major shareholder.
PROOF – Armada’s behavior as a contractor has been one of litigation.
PROOF - You cannot bid for contracts if you do not have donor tankers.
PROOF – Armada’s recent FPSO is a lemon.

Nobody seems to be talking new contracts. Is Armada even doing it?

When company starts issuing guidance through 3rd parties, it is not a good sign. The rights issue has been going on for 3 years. Then comes hopes of contract awards, then Trusts aka MTN. Then rights again.

U-Turn flip flop.

Its good to see 1 post from us, leads to a flurry of subsequent posts, 50% of which are spam, 40% of it are from the main shareholder internet trolls pretending to be investors and the balance 10% from smart people.

Nobody is asking the right questions.

When is Armada going to default on its 1st ever repayment? Can anyone guess? Good news is that it won't be this year. How about next year? Hinting here......

MTN = Trust = REIT concept.

Armada's plan is to sell off its assets to a Trust (investors). The thing is Armada is going to make Trust investors pay RM5 for every RM1 of value of it assets and pay 7% interest per annum. But they won't tell you that they have 7 years left before FIRM contract runs out and no more new contracts for Armada forever.

Hey, even Pavillion REIT lasts longer!

Any takers for Armada's MTN? Or it will be subscribed 100% from Government entities aka. bailout?

What is going to be the outcome of the debt negotiations for Armada? Before we start, here is an indication of what is to happen.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aircel-bankruptcy/indian-mobile-carrier-aircel-files-for-bankruptcy-idUSKCN1GC2KQ

Indian mobile carrier Aircel Ltd filed for bankruptcy on Wednesday, pressured by a high debt pile and mounting losses following a price war triggered by a telecom upstart.

So, lets stop hoping and dreaming like a typical stock market investor who has no clue to how businesses work and be real for one.

Why are banks not going to negotiate as of right now?

1) Banks are not going to renegotiate because they get "more" of their monies back faster based on the original terms and conditions.

2) Renegotiating effectively means they have to bear with the pain much longer and more possibly incur more losses than would otherwise.

And if not, when?

1) Bank will renegotiate when Armada "defaults". Armada will default when its "cash" runs out.

2) By which time, the banks would have clawed back most of its debts and proceed with liquidation of Armada.

The maths works better this way as the bank losses would be smaller.

Based on the financial review of Armada, it was determined that: -

PROOF – ARMADA REVENUES ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE DEBT
PROOF - 13 YEARS TO FULLY SETTLE DEBT IF REVENUE STABLE FOREVER BUT ITS FIRM IS ONLY UP TO 7 YEARS!
PROOF - NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE INTEREST AND TAXES
PROOF – ARMADA CANNOT GET ANY MORE FINANCING

Armada’s ability to secure new contracts is likely to be 0%

PROOF - Armada has lost the momentum as a major player since 2014.
PROOF - Armada has been without a business development / sales team since 2014.
PROOF – Armada embroiled in various allegations from various countries including EU and INDONESIA.
PROOF – Armada’s strategic direction is uncertain due to controversies with its major shareholder.
PROOF – Armada’s behavior as a contractor has been one of litigation.
PROOF - You cannot bid for contracts if you do not have donor tankers.
PROOF – Armada’s recent FPSO is a lemon.

If OPEC cuts supply to force prices up, what makes you think there would be more marine work for Armada when there is less production?

While we do not stop investors from profiting from the stock market by whatever means which includes selling their souls to the devil, we do not condone the act of misinformation by deceit and incompetence.

Oil price, offshore drilling and use of marine assets are no longer correlated as there has been no NEW offshore investment activity for the last 5 years with respect to offshore O&G activities. High oil price only benefits those who are producing oil to be sold. Period.

If it were so, all the O&G marine companies in Singapore would be booming. Unfortunately, it has been busted and busted again and again into the gutter.

As for the talk of higher oil price, despite OPEC's decision to reduce production by 1 million barrel of oil a day, the USA is poised to increase production by 2 million barrels of oil per day in 2019 from shale oil and another 3 million of barrels of oil per day in 2020. The current blip is due to geopolitical events, which from a business point of view is temporary and hence companies do not make capital investments on the fly.

Contend with Shale Oil explosive growth for the next 15 years.

By the time the market recovers in 2030, 70% of the marine assets world wide would be more than 20 years old (which by the way is scrap) and hence cannot be contracted. Nobody is constructing and nobody is buying new marine assets since 2014. Why? Because, the market knows that these assets would be idle for the next 15 years.

Which is why, it would be great to see if any company would be able to monetise these assets.

Heck, even a USD500 million FPSO is only worth USD50 million in the secondary market.

Reality check!