Armada will ask money from shareholders soon.

"Don't forget there were splits and additional rights issues"

There is another rights issue coming after all 1st oil, all to happen by Q4. But the bankers would like to see actual invoicing and collection first.

Look at the revenues forecasts again. 2 projects are delayed significantly - Madura & Kraken. Can Kraken be another major litigation like Claire?

PNB was smart. EPF not smart enuff. Wait, more news coming soon....hehehe

40/50/60 sens, doesn't matter anymore.....

Let it go, let it go!
Can't hold it back any more.
Let it go, let it go!
Turn away and slam the door.
I don't care what they're going to say.
Let the storm rage on.
The cold never bothered me anyway.

Have you read UMW O&G results? I say a prayer to all of you. I wish you all happy licking your wounds.

Unfortunately, with all the revenue coming in, it is not going to help. The losses will take years to breakeven. BREAKEVEN.

But congrats to whoever made some monies last couple of weeks.

Whatever price target by analyst, forget it. Changes coming. Don't hold it too long, otherwise frozen.

PNB got very smart ppl, selling armada. Dato Wahid never gets it wrong. Just in case, Dato Wahid was once Maybank CEO and supported Armada. Something not right.

The news on the purchase of FPSOs from MISC is false.

Kwap is in midst of reviewing its investments. I heard the audit is over. They will liqudate Hovid and others if they are required to support the bond market. The question is when.

uzi440, you are right. In a typical year, Hovid's base dividend is 2.5 sen per share.

When they start paying too many times, it only reflects how desparate they are.

It also highlights the difficulty in getting paid by their customers on TOP of 45% reduction in sales. No cash, how on earth do they pay you?

Like clockwork. Again!

Worst dividend distribution in history. Not even 1 sen, which was the norm. Definately for those who would hold Hovid to the grave. That is long-term for you.

If you normalise Hovid (i.e. remove carotech and Indian JV out of the equation) and adjust for USD/EUR, you will find that Hovid's business is actually down 45%. Yes, 45% before Sanofi's contract ends, from Top line to Bottom line. 45% less shipments, 45% less boxes of products. The factory utilisation is at 50% capacity.

Now imagine going to mid-valley and half of it is open for business and half of it is in darkness with no electrity. That is Hovid for you today. I would not be surprised if Hovid today is no better than Hovid in 2008!

And to my disbelief, what are the auditors doing? FRS strictly requires the review of your assets, in particular, the DCF and market valuation (whichever is the higher) of the plant and machinery. If it is not backed by any future sales, then those plant and machinery are as good as scrap. I fear the balance sheets is not really worth its salt.

As expected, like clockwork. No originality, nor thought nor expression. I would have thought a normalised p&l without the JV be done to show how dire the situation was.

Hey, did anyone mention sanofi's contract is expiring January 2016? Only 5 months to go. So, RM10mil to RM13mil p.a. not going to be filled? No option to extend? No new contracts?

Wow, seems like a strong USD/EUR is not making Hovid's products cheap for foreigners. No one's buying or importing like tomorrow. Oh, well.

As expected, revenue/PAT levels are the same as before, actually it is even worst. And the nerve to say that it is because of GST when your main source of revenue is exports. Oh, did anyone forget that the USD is up 30%+ YOY? So much for stronger USD dollar. How about the EUR?

COS are actually higher because of the USD, plus the fact that there had not been any new contracts. Hear any prospecting or tenders going on? What is the utilisation of the plant?

I bet no one is asking, maybe you all have to wait for analyst to do plant visits and ask right questions.

I can tell Hovid is utilising all is cash to make it worthwhile to stay. Seems like looking at forecast cashflows everyday is a norm. Well, at the expense of future growth.

Of course, I am waiting for some cut and paste macha to explain what went wrong and how it should be viewed.

Profit levels for next 8 quarters up to end 2017 going to be the same. All revenue increases due to strong USD offset by higher depreciation from new factory. Hovid has not explained the cost plus due to USD just yet. Anyway, with Bursa down day by day, 21 sen is a realistic number given the faltering economies of the east and bric.

Thanks to those to whom I sold to at 50.5 sen. It was a blessing because while most of you are still dreaming (as of now lah) of 60sen TP to happen (it will happen lah, just that It will be in 2018), I already use the monies somewhere else and reach the TP of 65 sen, 2.5 months ago. Now, with the bourse mayhem, day to day, I am making $ even without dabbling into KLCI. Next 36 months, interest rates going to increase 2.5%-3.0% worldwide, so really KLCI is not of a concern going forward. We'll know is going down bit by bit. Heck, whole of ASIA/BRIC going the same direction.

Wait for the 1st and 2nd USA interest hike first. Let the cheerful, cheap, plentiful and easy money flow back to USA. There is no hurry, given Hovid's results are going to be the same the next 2 years quarter to quarter. 21 sen may be far fetched, but not too un-realistic too.

Supporting the m'sian bond market is of utmost importance, which needs billions of dollars (note : dollars not ringgit!). Many investments by EPF/KWAP will be undone to support this cause. Hovid will start producing its patented drug in 2020 and hence this is definately a long term counter, if things do materialise in Hovid's favour that is.

Just pray (new investment committee and internal management) of KWAP does not undo previous investment with force sell to raise cash for *ahem* government needs. Unlike Tabung Haji who in many instances write-off investments, EPF and KWAP do not have this luxury.

Of course, the millions of bids were from KWAP. Now with KWAP gone, there would obviously be no support. Ever wondered, why for the last few months, there were no re-valuation of Hovid TP? KWAP got some explaining to do now.

Last year, KWAP was tasked to invested in M'sian sectors, however difficult the valuation was. Biotectnology companies in M'sia were far and few. Thus, it was a "no brainer" why Hovid was selected. Q3 2014 was when KWAP made investment calls/visits to Hovid. Fast forward today, with all the negativity about M'sia, KWAPs investments are under scrutiny and I understand that there is an indpendent review on-going now on all KWAP's investments for the past 2 years and going forward. When the wind blows over, I am sure it will all return to normal. Hopefully.

The results of the 2nd stage FDA trials has been delayed by another 18 months, just in case you did not know :)

Why? Give a call to Hovid. :)

How was the cold salty porridge? I'm sure you must have had that for a long time. Now to make it longer for you.

Now, lets update everyone on the RM300million of loans + creditors that are still being sought after at Carotech. Is it enough to pay them off? I wonder how much RPTs need to be done to settle it with Carotech's patent.

Appointing Chong Kong Kin and Halim is not going to absolve your debts, not even after you settled with the creditors. Class action next perhaps in the making?

Oh Hovid, you are not going to move with your tocotrienols. You are staying put until you sort out the loan/creditors and royalties.

Carotec is in the process of being wound up, still yet to satisfy the bank charges.

I am wondering what the highly anticipated FDA trials would mean since the patent belongs to Carotech?

http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&Sect2=HITOFF&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsearch-bool.html&r=0&f=S&l=50&TERM1=carotech&FIELD1=&co1=AND&TERM2=&FIELD2=&d=PTXT

Carotec is in the process of being wound up. I am wondering what the highly anticipated FDA trials would mean since the patent belongs to Carotech?

http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&Sect2=HITOFF&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsearch-bool.html&r=0&f=S&l=50&TERM1=carotech&FIELD1=&co1=AND&TERM2=&FIELD2=&d=PTXT

Time to move elsewhere where the grass is greener and more profitable. See you guys later.

Watch Greece/EU battle ya, 24th April 2015 is D day for fund managers to either pull or stay in M'sia. Either way, it is going to be a hell hole

Don't worry, I'll be back to make sure Mr. Ho fulfills his past promises.

Logic Trading Analysis don't be sour grape lah.

I already said, I don't mind if everybody here see me as a troublemaker here. You want ego hero, you take lah. Have it all you want! LOL

congratulations to all that made good monies today.

Today I am also very happy because not only you all made monies, and can have good dinner with family tonite,

but also happy someone else on the other end will be eating porridge with salted mustard for dinner tonight.

To Hovid Team behind Mr. Ho,

You remember the 64sen target? Remember or not? I will make you honour those words you uttered long time ago.

This time consider this like a small smack in your cheek, next time, I come blazing with more.

Treat your investors with respect and dignity. Do not take them for fools. Remember this.

LaoLiu, so little?

Me
10000 x 100 lots of hovid @ 50.5sen - 33.5 sen profit
5000 x 100 lots of WB @ 30 sen - 18 sen profit

end of day, still small money in little M'sia

To Hovid Team behind Mr. Ho,

Time for reality check and lick the wounds. yeap, you gonna lick it for a very long time. This time is a little small smack in the face.

From now on, treat your investors properly and with respect and do not kasi potong steam or I will mount challenge on your business fundamentals and put forth reality issues behind hovid and carotech.

logic trading analysis, what kinda name is that? weird.

good for you. I already done my part in challenging the hovid's people... and here they answer me now. telling me if they want to push up, they will go see big boss and borrow money to push up share to >50sen

you should thank me. dont you think this is co-incidence? LOL

Woo Hoo!!! Go go go....up up up Thanks you all, those arseholes needed a push!

Sold all @ 50.5 sen!. TQ.....TQ.....wah 33.5sen profit....

Thank you all for sapport. I'm outta here.

Yesterday, Greece made USD500million+ payment to IMF. Small amount compared to USD22billion to be paid in 2015. IMF payment is more like "maruah" issue".

Next is 24th April to submit to EU new plan. If EU accept, then Greece is ok, WHICH means, money will flow back to EU. Where do you think this monies will come from? Of course, from SEA asia lah. So, there will be outflow of funds from little country like M'sia.

Enjoy while you can, maybe lucky, can buy Hovid again at lower price. Q3 2015 FED will increase rates and so more outflows, hence you know what will happen to our market. Luckily, Great Britain decide to hold rates at 0.5% until 2016.

Overall, this 2015 not a good year for ASIA/SEA, more reasons for outflow. Just wait and see.

go treat me as a troublemaker. I'm ok with that.

ah, all the rats have come out, save for shrekk.

all I see is some cut and paste job from Hovid PR, newspaper & analyst report parroting Hovid.

of course, the music and belief all sound the same. so it must be true lah.

LOL

thank you for proving my point. I thought you would have gone to the patent office to get the info.

Carotech is the owner, and whoever buys that for USD1 billion, pays carotech.
I don't think that the major shareholder (not David Ho by the way) would to give 30% away to Hovid for taking up all the risk.

Would the major shareholder produce it and sell it cheap to Hovid or do it themselves?

I think the latter.

I remember in 1997, interest rates were 9%? No? No compounding?
I also remember, the adjusted price of Digi after taking into account bonuses and etc. was 22 sen in 2002? Go back to school and learn share price re-adjustment lah.

Is what I put up here "investment analysis"? It called COMMON SENSE lah. Dude, don't be so complicated lah.

Shrekk, you ask a very good question.

Buying Digi in 2002 is a smart and risky move. Buy when the
1) share price is very low
2) klse crashed

You long term when 1&2.

Lesson learn, you dont do long term when klse is 1800pts.

Here are 3 things that Hovid should clarify:-

1) Is it true that Sanofi's contract is completed? Is there not an extension?

2) When will your new bid for tender yield results? I.e. investors want to see when this "new revenue" utilise the 70% capacity. When? 2017? 2018? Are the margins for these contract similar to Sanofi's?

Those of you familiar with medical outsourced manufacturing, it is a very competitive market and typically you win tenders by being the cheapest. So margins are really "shit", worst than phamarniaga.

3) Clarify which patents belong to hovid and carotech and identify which one is under FDA review.

this is how typical long term investor consoles himself - average entry of 21sen. That is how they console themselves.
Not the best way to make money unless Hovid is a Dutch Lady.
Do you know what is this Dutch Lady syndrome? I'm sure you don't know.

Here is the true story.

Way back in 1991, there was this investor who invested RM300k in Dutch Lady shares.

When he sold off in 2013, i.e. 20 years later (along the way bonus shares given etc), he got RM1million, so in theory profit RM700k.. He was so happy and shared his story to the investment community.

Little did he know, if he had invested rm300k in FD since 1991 and exited in 2013, the amount he would have got from FD was RM1.05 million. The FD gave him RM50k extra over his share profit.

In my mind, long term investor means getting lower returns than FD.

buybuybuy TP60 sen....

I feel so sorry for the retail investors who are still earnestly waiting for the FDA approval.
They think that is the key for Hovid's big time SUCCESS.

How can it be a SUCCESS when Patent holder is Carotech lah.

It GlaxoSmithKline were to say, hey I buy it from you for USD 1billion, they are going to pay carotech lah. The question is who holds the rest of the 70% of carotech?

TIP.
Go look for the boss who runs Pahang if you want to know the answer.

if you want to play along with the speculators, please carry on. I am not stopping you.

It your TP is >50sen so be it. Gorenglah! Continue with your support for Hovid.

typical investor play share investor mentality, lack real world business exposure with kuaci level job experience.

at least you have should said something about points 1) and 2) in the previous post. not mentioning it tells me alot about you.

worst you seem to read only analyst reports. tell me, what is the utilisation level of Hovid? What is utilisation? Tip: Analyst don't know, because they are just finance graduates.

Ppl who don't know always harp about x times PE, x time EV, all these methods conjured up by finance ppl who do not know operations. All putting the finger in the air and make numbers.

"Lets stick to basics first...as still too early to divert from it...:) "
Is that the best answer for a claimed "long term investor"? Isn't that myopic vision?

Stii trying hard to search? oklah, I give it to you easy. Below are the total debt obligations that have to be repaid by greece from 2015 to 2020, all in USD

2015 - USD26.5 billion
2016 - USD6.2 billion
2017 - USD11.7 billion
2018 - USD4 billion
2019 - USD13.5 billion
2020 - USD28 billion

What is IMF loan repayment? Peanuts!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-04/greece-has-cash-to-make-imf-payment-next-week-minister-says

everyone has cash to make payments, so they say. go look at bloomberg again, if you can find, post here the debt repayments for greece in 2015/2016.

then lets discuss (apart from the greece/us/russia talk going on....)

In todays senario (as people become smarter from the mistakes and fingers lost in the past decade), there are 2 things you have to remember about the business world.

1) Rights Issue is a big no-no and bad for the company. Why? Because only non-performing or sub-standards one ask for it. Great companies can generate CASH from profits quick and fast to go into new business, many don't.

2) The gold standard nowadays, if a company wants to do something, lets not talk about millions, you talk billions. RM25 million cant even get you a big plot of industrial land or high tech machineries.

new high cannot be achieved. 50sen is the top.
all left is retail investors which is way way more than 3 months ago.
play share cannot look at technicals.
look at what is happening in the world.

if greece defaults on imf tomorow, worldwide markets will be in turmoil and Hovid? Well, drop lah.
if greece cannot satisfy EU anymore, then same story.

only thing going for BURSA is the net inflow because those fella are diverting funds from europe because of greece for the time being.

if greece ok liao, all money flow back to europe. Die HOVID again.

both situations bad for BURSA and HOVID.

I heard, that analyst going to come out with report again...couple or few days soon, instruction from Mr. Ho and Mr. Goh.

10 million units sold upto time of this post. They have finished and are out.
Now left the retail to suffer the brunt. Further fallout when T+3 about to kicks in.
9th April and 24th April would be dates to watch for.