I am not condoning manipulation neither can I tell authority what to do. In the face of all these market imperfections, what should I as small investor do? I made an assessment of the whole situation: too many CWs are issued which means the IBs will be manipulating the counter to benefit themselves but they do it legally; I cannot outplay them, therefore I dumped all JCY shares sometime ago.

Stock manipulation is happening every where. look at Facebook shares- IPO price of USD38 drops to below USD20 in a few months. Lots of complains and shouting of unfairness but no authority is doing anything! The most important thing is that a retail investor must do his own homework. The stock market is totally free and open; no one is forcing any one to buy or sell.

Those who were brave during the last few days of market downturn would have been rewarded. Aeon Credit rebounded strongly from the low of RM11.72 to closed at RM12.92 on Friday.

Monday is the last day of trading Aeon Credit shares on Cum-BI basis. Let's watch the closing price at the end of Monday and calculate the theoretical ex-BI price.

Don't worry about the price drop of a few sen. MIECO shares are already at the rock bottom price. There is not much room for further drop because the asset value is a few times higher than the current price. As the machinery and equipment of the second plant are fairly new and advanced, the company can easily be sold at premium over the current price. This will take place when the Pakistani takes full control of BRDB.

Aeon Credit was sold down to as low as RM11.72 but closed at RM12.10 by noon. This is perhaps an opportune time for those who missed the boat to nibble into the counter. The ex-Bonus date is 11 Sept, which means there is still 3 days left for bargain hunting.

In time of market volatility, a blue-chip high-dividend stock like Lafarge gives one some peace of mind. Lafarge pays out quarterly dividends of 8 sen nett for first 3Qs and 10 sen nett for 4Q giving a total of 34 sen, which works out to a yield of 4%, quite decent compared with FD rate of 2.8%.

There could be higher dividend payouts in the next few years due to the following factors:

a) Earning is increasing as a result of higher sales and higher margin
b) By this September, the company is debt free with nett cash in the coffer.
c) There is a recurring free cash flow of 180 million generated by depreciation in addition to normal earning, which works out to about 20 sen. This amount can be distributed as capital repayment on top of normal dividend.

Last Thursday BRDB announced that it had received an unconditional takeover from substantial shareholder Ambang Sehati, a company controlled by the Pakistani. The latter, which holds an 18.49% stake in BRDB, offered to acquire all BRDB shares for RM2.90 each, and all outstanding warrants for RM1.80 each. However, no specific date was given.

It would still take quite sometime before BRDB General Offer (GO) can be completed. Hence, those who hold MIECO shares would have to wait until the completion of GO before they can see any activity in MIECO.

The chairman and controlling shareholder of Warisan bought 2.55 million Warisan shares on 29 August 2012, by way of direct deals. The price paid was RM3 per share. Direct deal transactions are normally not reflected on Bursa Malaysia. It is reported via company announcement.

When insider buys large volume of shares, it is an indicator of better things to come.

Nothing much will happen to MIECO until after the important date of 26 September 2012. This is the date BRDB warrants expires. The Pakistani major shareholder will not do anything to BRDB too until that date. The reason is this: he is obliged to buy up BRDB warrants at RM1.80 per share. When the warrants expires, he pays nothing. After that date, probably things will begin to move especially when the Pakistani is in control of BRDB. BRDB controls MIECO by its 56% stake in MIECO. As mentioned before, BRDB is keen to hive off MIECO but at the right price.

The company has announced the ex-bonus issue date: 11/09/2012. No wonder the second leg of rally took off this morning! The share price touched as high as RM13.62 but closed off at RM13.30 for the morning session, up by 42 sen. Most probably, the expected good 2Q result will be announced after the entitlement date of BI. The stock will very likely be actively traded right up to the ex-bonus issue date. There is very high probability that the share price would hit RM14 mark.

Don't give up on Mulpha yet. One buys this stock for its valuable assets in Australia, Hong Kong and Malaysia and not for its earning. The company will buy back its own share when it dips below 40 sen. I have seen this counter fluctuating between 35 sen to RM2 several times for the last ten over years. I believe one can make some money if one has patience and holding power.

The BI has been duly approved yesterday. The excitement of chasing the stock up to EGM date is over and the share price corrected itself significantly. The next run up will probably take place when the BI entitlement date is announced, which should be forth coming in September.

Lafarge registered improved half-year result from 15.2 sen to 17.3 sen per share, which represents an increase of 14% over that of Lafarge registered improved half-year result from 15.2 sen to 17.3 sen per share, which represents an increase of 14% over that of last year. At the same time, the company declared a quarterly single tier dividend of 8 sen.

The 3Q and 4Q results should improve further due the 6% cement price increase which took effect from 1 Aug 2012. As more construction contracts are awarded, the demand for cement will increase further. As pointed out in earlier postings, Lafarge is currently the only cement manufacturer that has excess capacity to meet the rising demand.

When we invest in a company, we are investing in the future of the company, not the past and not even the present. A low current PER can deteriorate rapidly in the following year; on the other hand, a high current PER can quickly turn around. It all depends on the future prospect of growth of the company. One must make a logical assessment of industry future before one makes a sensible investment decision. In today's internet age, news and data are plentiful and easily available. It is quiet easy to do some viability study for JCY.

Another day of big price push for Aeon Credit, hitting intra-day high of RM13.58 and closed at RM13.30, an increase of 52 sen. Tomorrow is the D-day for BI approval. Actually, there is nothing to speculate on about this event. It is public knowledge that this BI approval is a foregone conclusion. Nevertheless, it is interesting to watch how the stock will behave tomorrow.

JCY was bashed down by the violent bears last few days. Most analysts downgraded JCY on grounds of decreasing demand for HDD as well as ASP reduction in the coming months. There is one serious negative factor the analysts have not mentioned but is coming very soon. The minimum wage of RM900 per month will be enforced on 1 Jan 2013. JCY employs tens of thousand of factory workers and they are currently paid, most probably, way below the minimum wage level. Hence, JCY's earning in 2013 might be significantly eroded. If you are playing JCY, keep your eyes on cost figures and detect if there is any variation.

Another spectacular day for Aeon Credit, closing at RM12.78 with a hefty increase of 72 sen. Intra-day high touched RM12.90 in the afternoon. It's quite puzzling why the price keep moving north. At this juncture, there are only 3 things unknown about the company. First, Aeon Credit Malaysia has a 20% stake in Aeon Credit India. Although this is a potential earning contributor, the operation has not really taken off yet. Secondly, the circulation of Aeon VISA Credit Card is growing; this could be a potential big earning contributor. Thirdly, 2Q dividend and earning is forth coming. This is quite predictable: dividend probably within the range of 13 to 15 sen while 2Q earning in the range of 20-25 sen per share. None of these factor justify the big push for the last few days. Most likely, it is the frenzy buying of shares ahead of the BI approval on 28 Aug.

Aeon Credit put up a spectacular performance today, adding 46 sen to close at RM11.98 per share. It touched intra-day high of RM12.10 in the morning. It was quite unexpected as most people thought that the push will only take place next 1 or 2 months. Anyway, Aeon Credit will soon be moving into uncharted water. How high it will go is anybody's guess. As a rule of thumb, take the latest earning, annualized it and multiply it by PER of 15 and that will give a rough estimate of fair price.

Tonylim Can't remember the exact date of peak price. BI was announced on 18 June 2012 but rumours were circulating around 1 or 2 months earlier.

Aeon Credit is moving again, hitting intra-day high of RM11.88 on last Friday but closed off peak at RM11.52 before the long Hari Raya week end. Reason? Very simple. August 28 is drawing nearer, the date to approve the Bonus Issues of 1:5 in EGM. Secondly, the 2Q accounting period closed on August 20 which means the financial result of 2Q will be known very soon. As 2Q covered the Hari Raya shopping period, the earning is expected to see significant improvement. At the same time, an interim dividend of around 13.5 sen single tier will be announced before the end of September or early Oct. With these few goodies pending, it is anticipated the share price would probably hit RM12 mark within next 1 or two months.

Warisan has just released 2Q results. Net profit increased by 45% from 9.59 sen 13.98 sen per share. The company declared a interim dividend of 6 sen per share gross. If the profit can be maintained in the 2nd half, annualized earning should be around 28 sen per share. At the price of RM2.74, that works out to PER of about 10, quite decent.

The 6-month loss is RM40 million, but this include paper loss of RM38 million of tin inventory write down to current tin price. The actual loss is only RM2 million. Below are personal thoughts:

MSC is a pure mining company. Cyclical volatility is the basic nature of this type of operation. Currently, tin price of around USD18,000 per tonne is below average cost of production of around USD22,000. The current market situation is mainly due to lack of demand for tin as result of global economic slowdown. In 2 or 3 years time, when the world economy picks up, tin price could go as high as USD30K to USD40K. MSC earning could be RM1 to RM2 per share

MSC has been in the tin operation for the last 100 over years and will be around for a longtime. If one can hold out this present difficult time, there will be handsome dividend awaiting. By the way, iCapital owns about 2.9 million shares in MSC and I believe they are still holding it.

Lafarge is charging again, moving up by 41 sen to hit the high of RM8.70 this afternoon. On the other hand, Tasek drops 9 sen to RM9.90 per share. As explained earlier, Lafarge has the excess capacity to capitalise the booming construction industry. RHB predicted the target price of RM9.05 for Lafarge. I think the target price of RHB will soon be breached.

Having secured the approval of Bursa Malaysia, Aeon Credit is now seeking approval from shareholders for the Bonus Issue of 1:5 through an EGM on 28 Aug 2012. Again, this approval is only a matter of formality. This means The share will go ex-bonus sometime in September which is also the time to announce the financial results of 2nd Quarter. A set of sterling results is expected.

Mulpha is a stock of thematic play. This is one of the best value penny stock with good assets in Australia, Hong Kong and Malaysia. This is the stock you can "buy low sell high" and it has happened many times in the past and will happen again. I am quite certain one can easily reap 50% to 100% capital gain when the next rally arrives. Patience is the key to unlock profits of MULPHA.

A tale of two cement companies: There are only 2 pure cement companies listed on the Bursa, Lafarge and Tasek. Share price of Lafarge keeps rising hitting the high of RM8.60 this morning while the price of Tasek seems stagnating. Here's the explanation: As the demand and price of cement increase, Tasek can only benefit from price increase. Lafarge will reap profits from both increased demand as well as price because Lafarge has excess capacities of 3.6 million tons.

Lafarge hit the high of RM8.20 this morning on the back of rising demand of cement. With all the mega infra projects beginning to take off, demand for cement will remain firm whilst the supply will be quite tight even though there are some additional capacities coming into the market next year.

As pointed out many months ago in this forum, Lafarge has the flexibility of diverting 30% of its export cement or roughly 3.6 million tons to domestic market. RHB is forecasting target price of RM9.05 for Lafarge. I have no doubt that the price is achievable within the next 12 months.

The Pakistani substantial shareholder of Bandaraya is offering to buy up all the remaining shares and warrants at RM2.90 and RM1.80 respectively. Bandaraya is the controlling shareholder of MIECO. When the corporate exercise of Bandaraya is completed, the Pakistani shareholder will have complete control over MIECO. Very likely, the Pakistani would sell MIECO stake (56%)at market price, which is much higher than the current price of 44.5 sen. However, the time frame for this to take place could be as long as 1 year due to the involvement of various approvals. If one can hold, there might be significant gain in buying MIECO now.

Effectively, the new agreement will reduce MSC's stake in P. T. Koba to 30%. Personally I view this development positively as it will reduce the risk of MSC in Indonesia. Since P. T. Koba has been bleeding, it would be even better for MSC to dispose the entire stake. MSC's Butterworth smelting plant and the tin mining activities in Perak can generate earning of about RM1 per share had it not for the losses in Indonesia.

The company announced yesterday evening that the bonus issue of 1:5 has been approved by Bursa Malaysia. This means it would not be long before the company determines the date of entitlement. As mentioned before in this forum, the ex-bonus price would very likely rise to pre-bonus price within a year because of the fasting growing earning. This would translate into 20% annual gain.

Instead of focusing on short term price movements and manipulations, one really needs to take a hard look at the long term prospect of HDD. HDD will still be in the market for a long long time but the growth will be muted due to the following reasons:

1) Intel is worrying about the diminishing demand for PCs which generally use HDD;

2) The phenomenal growth of tablets and smart phones is there to stay, which use 100% SSD;

3)Cloud computing farms such as Amazon and others are switching from HDD to SSD for data storage because it is more efficient despite higher cost;

4) Price of SSD is falling every month; it will come a day when SSD will pose a serious challenge to HDD

There was a flurry of trading activities of Warisan shares last week. Today's company announcement revealed that among other people, the controlling shareholder Tan Chong Consolidated was buying Warisan shares in the open market. They bought a total of 176,000 on 11th July. Although the volume purchased is nothing to shout about, it is pertinent to note that they have been buying consistently throughout the year. Generally, when the major shareholder or the company itself keeps buying the shares, it is worthwhile to have a look on the business potential of that company.

Fundamentals aside, share price of MIECO is inching up and volume is picking up quite nicely. If the momentum can be sustained, the next target price as well as the next resistance level is 53 sen.

In the past few years, both the company and the Chairman have been buying back and accumulating Warisan shares. This company is not for quick-profit traders but long term investors. There will not be any fast money but if you have financial stamina, I believe you would be rewarded in a couple of years.

Aeon Credit has just submitted the proposal of bonus issue (1:5) to SC/Bursa for approval, which should be forthcoming in the next one or two months. This type application is normally for formality only. Those who want to ride on the band wagon of consistent earning and dividend growth still have time to do some shopping before the share goes ex-bonus in the next two months.

When we analyse MIECO, we must look beyond the current business model. Basically, the Pakistani substantial shareholder is not really interested in this chipboard business; that could be part of the reason the company is not progressing well. Some years ago, they tried to distribute MIECO shares among Bandaraya shreholders because MIECO is a subsidiary of Bandaraya. However, the exercise was blocked by the rest of Bandaraya shareholders including EPF and a few foreign institutional fund managers, who held substantial stakes. Subsequent to that, they tried to sell the the controlling stake to others; the deal did not materialise, probably the price did not meet their expectation. Bandaraya is always on the look out for potential buyers to take over MIECO at the right price, including investors from China. From the perspective of outright sale of MIECO, one must consider the net asset backing of MIECO, which is way above the current share price of 45 sen.

Warisan used to be a lethargic stock, rarely traded with miserable daily volumes. Things seem to look up a little bit for the last one week; seemingly someone is nibbling into this counter to collect the shares. There is no announcement to indicate any corporate move. However, do watch out for the quarterly results in August to gauge the earning growth.

Everyone playing MIECO has to be patient. When the rally comes, it will come in quite a big way. Mieco is a big brand name for Malaysian chipboard. Its two factories are worth something like RM700 million. After deducting debts of around RM200 million, net asset is still worth about RM500 million or RM2.40 per share. Currently, the share is selling for only 45 sen!

A turn-around story could be in the making. The company restarted the operation of the second new plant last year, which was shut down for two years because of falling market. However, the profit margin of chipboard is thin due to the rising costs of two main input components- resin and rubber wood. To be prudent, monitor the quarterly results before any trading action is taken.

Recently, Silver Bird reported a loss of RM308 million or closed to 76 sen per share. The Asset Backing has dropped from +52 sen to -23 sen. Think again, who would want to accumulate shares with negative asset value?

Lafarge is attracting quite a bit of attention lately with closing price of RM7.95 last Friday. With many mega construction projects notably MRT coming on stream, cement price will gradually experience upward pressure. Currently, there are only two pure cement listed companies- Tasek and Lafarge. Share price of both companies could move north in tandem with increasing demand for cement in the next two years.

(This article is for information only and represents author's own opinion. Please do your own research if you are intending to buy or sell)

Recently, Aeon Credit declared a 1:5 bonus issue. With closing price of RM11.24 per share, the theoretical ex-bonus price will be RM9.36 per share. Due to the fast growing earning and consistent dividend payouts, I believe the ex-bonus price of RM9.36 will gradually climb back to RM11 in a year's time. As such, there is no hurry to sell the share; grow with the company!

Judging from yesterday's volume and price movement, Looks like there is light at the end of the tunnel. Hopefully, it can break the near term resistance of 0.53 in the next few weeks.

Nothing significant happening in the last few months except MSC is setting up 40% JV tin concentrate smelting plant in Congo. However, the products still need to be sent to Butterworth for final stage refining. This JV will actually benefit MSC because it serves as a tin ore collection centre in Congo and semi-pure tin ingots will be channelled to Butterworth plant.

Going forward, it will be interesting to see how MSC fare in the coming 2Q results. With tin price averaging USD19,000 per tonne and Indonesian mine still recovering, I don't expect earning to have any upside surprise.

Important thing to consider now is the actual losses due to the 12 irregularities. a couple of months ago, the management estimated that the total exposure was about 112 million,that is about 28 sen per share. Now that the Forensic report is out, the management should be able to determine the actual losses. If the actual figure is less than 112 m, that will be good news. However, if the figure is worse than 112 m, share price may take a different direction. Personally, I won't do anything until the truth is out.

Be careful about the price movement Silver Bird. Forensic report identified 12 irregularities in the Silver Bird account. They have not quantified the actual amount of losses involved.

CCMDBIO has just released the 1Q2012 results. Earning improves from 4.27 sen to 4.83 sen per share, that is an increase of 13%. It is not impressive but decent normal growth.

According to the latest annual report, the CEO mentioned that collaboration with MNCs in producing generic drugs is one of the company' strategy in charting new growth. This information is very positive for the future prospect of CCMDBIO.

Manulife has just released 1Q2012 results. Earning improves from 6.52 sen to 8.48 sen per share. That is a decent increase of 30%. This counter is not very exciting because the growth is very gradual. However, if you are looking for some sound and safe investment, Manulife may just be the right choice. The controlling shareholder owns slightly under 60% and they are buying in the open market,practically everyday.

Don't panic. Share price came down because of general drop in prices of shares across the board and across the world. Price of Aeon Credit went up powerfully in the last one month because SunBiz reported the possibility of the company giving bonus share with the ratio of 1:1, probably in the next few months. If the report is true, the share should touch RM12 before bonus and probably RM6.50 ex-bonus. Fund Manager Aberdeen holds about 8.4 million shares.

(This article is for information only and represents author's own opinion. Please do your own research if you are intending to buy or sell)

There is no need to worry about 1Q2012 results of MSC. Here is the reason for the poor performance.

"The management’s on-going efforts to turn around Indonesian subsidiary have seen the progressive closure of expensive pits, which led to lower tin volume in 1QFY12. Given PT Koba Tin’s legacy of high fixed cost of USD2.5m per month, the lower volume translated into higher units, and consequently a huge loss. With its turnaround plan well in progress plus the commissioning in stages of its cheaper cost cum higher quality pits, we expect this subsidiary’s losses to ease in the upcoming quarters".

I personally believe the earning will turn around to a much better set of figures by 2Q or 3Q. Over a longer term, MSC is still a good investment. Just for information, iCapital holds a total of 2.9 million MSC shares. They bought the shares in 2010 and 2011.