Raphael: these are personal opinions and observations based on past experiences. Investing and trading involve certain amount of foresight and intelligent guesses and watch the actual events unfolding. Follow through if you are right; change tactic if you are wrong.

Once the investment bank has collected the money, they will withdraw support of JCY and let the price drift by itself, very likely will go lower and lower. And when the expiry date is near, they will push the price down like what OSK is doing now.

JCY game is far from over. When the present JCY-CD expires at the end of this month, a new game will begin to unfold. One of the investment banks, very likely CIMB will ramp up JCY prices to a certain level and they will issue a new batch of call-warrants. No one can predict how high JCY will go next month onward. Here is the caution, as soon as new call-warrants are issued, it is time to run for your life!

Warisan is a light-weight investment-grade stock. Earning has not been growing for the last 3 or 4 years, staying at around 0.21 per share and dividend has also not been increasing, stagnating at 0.12 per share. Share price has only appreciated by about 38% over a period of 4 or 5 years - insignificant average of 7.6% per year.

However, net asset backing has over the years increased to the current figure of RM3.69 per share. Warisan also has a big pile of cash of RM115 million (Sept 2011) - it works out to RM1.70 per share of cash over total paid up capital of 67,200,000.

With the current share price of 2.51, Warisan looks grossly undervalued!

JCY is crushed by the two opposing forces - Market and CW issuer. Looks like the latter is prevailing for the time being. Do not be dismay, when the winter Feb is over, the spring March will arrive and J-C-Y will leap for J-O-Y.

Once upon the time, all three members of the Tan Chong Group namely APM, TChong Motors and Warisan were all trading in the range of RM1.50 to RM2 per share. Within the last two years, both APM and TChong have graduated to medium weight stocks of between RM4 to RM5 per share.

Tan Chong Group is now grooming Warisan to be in the same league as the other two sister companies. It may take another two years for Warisan to catch up the same level of earnig.

In the past few years, both the company and the Chairman have been buying back and accumulating Warisan shares.

Here is more information about MUlpha:

Besides Iskandar, Mulpha is also a good proxy play for Australian property market. It owns a number of prized assets in Australia including:

InterContinental Hotel in Sydney,
Sanctuary Cove property development in Gold Coast,
five-star private island development in Hayman,
Retirement home development etc.

The asset value is RM1.24 per share in 2010 but since then, Aussie Dollar has appreciated from RM2+ to RM3+

Someone asked me a question yesterday: Why is Goldman Sachs selling all the Mulpha shares if its asset backing is so good at 1.24? Here is the answer:-

Mulpha is a high beta stock holding a substantial stake in FKP Australia (retirement home developer and provider). There was rumour that FKP was the subject of hostile take-over in 2010. Being a hedge fund, Goldman Sachs was trying to capitalise on the rumour and bought into Mulpha. Before they could profit anything, GS ran into financial difficulties as a result of Euro crisis and Mulpha was not interested in selling FKP. GS sold assets in many countries to raise cash.

At the time of GS purchase, a substantial shareholder, Honest Opportunity was selling. The table was turned around when GS was selling aggressively- Honest Opportunity was buying by the millions of shares at very low price of between 0.37 to 0.40. GS lost their pants! Hedge funds are big time speculators, sometimes they win and sometimes they lose and they are not bothered.

Mulpha is moving slowly but steadily. The downside risk is minimal as the stock has fairly solid asset backing of 1.24 per share. I think one can easily make a profit of 50% within this year. However, much patience is required.

The company has been buying back shares for the last one year. They bought back 1.89 million shares within last 2 days. Goldman Sachs' holding is dwindling and would dry up completely soon.

Mulpha has just sold a HK company for around RM110 million raking in a tidy net profit of RM57 million. Not a big deal but will increase the cash position quite a bit.

Despite corrections in the last few days, Mulpha chart still looks positive with price staying above 200MA. 20MA will soon cross 200MA line, that is a mini golden cross which indicates near term bullishness

MSC's chart looks very positive with the price staying above the 200MA line for the last few weeks. One can expect further appreciation in the coming weeks due to the following factors:-

(a)50MA (weekly)has crossed above 200MA line, chartists call this Golden Cross indicating bullish trend
(b) Tin price has risen to USD25,000 per tone,and possibly beyond in the next few weeks because of tight supply situation
(c)Impending result announcement with declaration of a final dividend, should be more than 15 sen

CCM DuoPharma(CCMDBIO)is a high dividend stock yielding an average of 7% net. Many people are disappointed with its share performance for the last few years and have resorted to selling them.

Chemical Company of Malaysia, a PNB owned group bought over CCMDBIO at the price of 2.80 per share in 2004. For 7 years, the share price has been trapped between 2 to 2.70

Things may be changing for the coming years due to the following factors:

(a) The company has completed most of its expansion programme such as building of new warehouse, increasing manufacturing capacity and entrance into Middle East region

(b) With the divestment of Pharmaniaga by Khazanah to Boustead, CCMDBIO may have a bigger share of Government hospital supply contract.

Share price should move above 2.30 next few months.Below are some reasons:

CCM DuoPharma should turn in a set of improved results to be announced within the next two weeks. Expect a fairly generous final dividend soon. The company has a dividend policy of paying out 75% of net income every year. The whole year earning is assumed to be around 21 sen. the interim dividend was 3.5 sen for the 1st half of financial year. Hence the final dividend is expected to be 10 to 12 sen net of tax.

Repeating what I wrote last week: The two opposing forces of Market and JCY-CD issuer will keep JCY price in a tight range of + or - 1.40 until end of Feb. However, when the month of March comes, JCY may spring up like "jack-in-the-box"!

JCY's price recovery of HDD is real. I bought a 500G hard-disk early 2011 for RM135. I needed another disk in Dec 2011 and the shop-owner told me 500G disk would now cost RM315. He further added that prices would only stabilize probably after one year.

For sure JCY will make more profits for the next few quarters. The only question is, how long will it last? Any body's guess.

Here are some points to think about concerning the direction of Mulpha price for the next few months.

Mulpha has been rolling on the average floor price of 0.40 for the last 2 1/2 years until recently. The main reason for this doldrum is the persistent and continuous selling of Mulpha shares by Goldman Sachs.

The Hedge Fund bought a substantial stake of 165 million shares from the open market between Oct to Dec 2010. For some unknown reasons, the Fund began to sell down their holding from January 2011 onward.

By October 2011, the outstanding stock was 118 million shares. No further info of shareholding of Goldman Sachs was reported after this date because the shareholding dropped to below 5%.

Probably by June or earlier, the Fund would have sold everything. Mulpha price would gradually edge up over next few months as the selling tapers off. This might explain the current surge of Mulpha price.

JCY - some issues to ponder about over the week end.


JCY is sandwiched between two market forces, from now until the end of February 2012. On one hand, the sterling 1Q2012 result (7.94 sen/share + 2 sen T.A dividend)) is a good catalyst to move the price upward beyond 1.40. On the other hand, there is a Call-Warrant maturing at the end of the month.

The exercise price of JCY-CW is 70 sen, which means the issuer will have to cough up the difference between market price and the exercise price depending on the market price of JCY at the end of the month.

In order to minimize payment, the issuer will probably try all means to influence JCY price to move lower. Who will prevail? Market or CW issuer? No body knows.

The two opposing forces will keep JCY price in a tight range of + or â?? 1.40. However, when the month of March comes, JCY may spring up like â??jack-in-the-boxâ??!

Warisan is a laggard and unloved stock. Despite its decent earning of 21 sen, consistent dividend of 12 sen and high net asset value per share of RM3.69, the share price has been struggling within the range of RM2.20 to RM2.60 for the last 2 years. Things are about to change with earnings spiking up within the next two years:-

(a) Its tourism arm MayFlower is flourishing, with outbound and inbound tours registering high growth; total annual turnover is around RM500 million
(b) The heavy machinery division is capturing new market share especially in East Malaysia.
(c) The newly launched Automotive division, marketing China-made trucks, is making inroads into the commercial segment.

Mulpha is a good proxy play of Iskandar Development Region in Johor Bahru. It owns Leisure Farm- a high-end low-density property development within the super prime area of Nusajaya New Township. The development is only 11 km or 15 minutes drive away from the Singapore Immigration Check point via Second Link.

With the Singapore Government restricting foreign property ownership on the island, through the imposition of heavy stamp duty, it is highly probable the excess foreign demand would be diverted to Johor Bahru. Leisure Farm is one of the major beneficiaries.

Leisure Farm has a total area of 1,371 acres of free hold land. Probably close to 650 acres of land are left for development. With the current market price of development land hovering around RM30 psf, the total market value could easily fetch RM850 million.

JCY's game is not over yet. The stock may take a breather and consolidate for a while, as saying goes "buy on rumours, sell on news". However, in the case of JCY, it was not rumours but profit guidance. Hence, there is an even chance for the stock to continue moving after a few days of rest.

Yes,Straits Trading Singapore is the controlling major shareholder. This is a very reputable and conservative group founded by the late Tan Chin Tuan.

Mulpha pierced through the all-important 200MA line today touching intra-day high of 0.455; that is very very positive. However, the price needs to move another 10% to confirm the uptrend or else it is another dead cat bounce

Impairment loss simply means paper loss. For example a company bought a property for RM1 million last year. This year the value of the same property drops to RM800,000. There is an impairment of RM200,000. The accountant will deduct this figure from the income of the company.

No idea whether Temasek is a major holder. By the way, when the price of MSC dipped last year, a family member of the owner bought 400,000 at one go, and the CEO himself bought 200,000 for his wife. You can check it on the MSC announcements.

Many people bought MSC at between RM8 to RM9 3 years ago. They were caught by the company's losses for the last 3 years due to wrong overseas investments. However, the company has sold some of those unprofitable ventures and written down all impairments. Despite the excellent earnings, people are still haunted by those massive losses. But things have changed since the beginning of 2011. It will take another 1 or 2 years before the market is fully convinced. Well, by that time they may be staring at MSC with a huge price tag of RM12

MSC's 9 month earning is RM1.09 per share. The whole year earning ending Dec 2011 is expected to be in excess of RM1.30 per share. It is irrational for such share to be priced at RM4.50 per share. Even if you apply an ultra conservative PE ratio of 4, the price will work out to RM5.20

Mulpha price is rising slowly and steadily from the low of 0.38 to 0.425 during the last two weeks. It stays consistently above the lines of 20MA and 50MA and is fast approaching the 200MA line at 0.44. Be on your mark, and get set to break through this all-crucial 200MA barrier! It may happen as soon as within the next two weeks.

JCY is riding on the 5th wave of the rising tide, touching the high of 1.50 this morning. There is a good chance that the 5th wave could be extended beyond 1.60 in the next few weeks. However, expect some turbulence and volatility as the stock approaches IPO price of 1.60; the stale bulls will come out in droves to recoup their capital.

JCY is going to keep moving for a while, manipulated or otherwise, nobody knows and nobody cares as long as one make some money our of it.