Beary , so far did you manage to get.harta at below 7 ? I am.also interested in.harta beside supermx .

Toneefa, dont have to.do any estimation. Below Is the extract from.Supermx briefing to all the IBS. The ASPs for April, May.and June would have been USD 80 to 110. On.average it is about the same as Jan to March. Last Qtr.profit was 1.080 Billions despite a loss of 330 millions revenue due to meru plant shutdown in Feb. We.expect.similar loss in.June due to 60 % workforce from.MCO.

----------------------------------------------
ASP have reach a peak in the March quarter.
Supermax’s ASP starting to see a drop in 2Q2021 which is earlier than our expectation in 2H2021.
Blended ASP still rose in 3QFY21 = Jan: USD84.61 (+1.3% mom), Feb: USD87.65 (+3.6% mom), March: USD89.2 (+1.7% mom).
Going forward, nitrile ASP (factory level) for April - June is about USD80-110, while July onward deteriorating to about USD70.

During the 1998 financial crisis, the CI indexes dropped from 1300 in 1997 to 250 pts in 1998.Foreign funds pulled out big times due to depreciating ringgit from 2.50 to 4.50. Many entered the market and bought good profitable stocks at 800 pts , 600 , 400 , 300 and finally at 250 pts. Even you entered at 400 pts which was considered low enough, the busybody will still jeered at you when the index went further down.to 300 and then lower because of paper losses. Then in late 1999, the CI.bounced back to 900 plus pts. Those who entered at 700 to 800 started to make money not to mention those who entered at 400 pts. In early 2000 , the CI went up to more than.1000 pts. The rest was history.

Gloves shortages remain.
--------------------------------
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2021/07/06/supply-shortage-for-gloves

Moneymakers, repeating 26 messages within.40 minutes. So desperate to cover the shorts while the prices are moving up ?

The unvaccinated can become " variant factories" . Third wave may come during Oct -Dec .
---------------------------------
https://www.livemint.com/science/health/bodies-of-unvaccinated-people-become-variant-factories-says-expert-11625370489849.html

Moneymakers, if whole days no buyers, who bought the 11.4 million shares ? Every 5 mins one repeated message . Nuisance.

----------------------------------------------------
MoneyMakers Whole day no buyers at all

Wait coming QR 500Mil profit (RHB) - no buyers & alot new sellers..real massacre coming
05/07/2021 4:33 PM

Toneefa, yes, the US 24 ASP assumption provided the baseline of RM 3.30 in Observatory valuation . The additional profit from the extra US 5 ( 29 - 24 ) will.give additional rm 600 million profit or 22 sen eps. Using PE of 15., it is another rm.3.30 . I still have not add the profit from the Supermx Distribution yet. My assumption on Supermx Distribution profit is.much higher than.Observatory. I have decided not to discuss our differences in this forum. I take it as my big bonus if I am correct.


---------------------------------------


Yup calculation wise observatory and pjseow alrdy established that current price is the fair post pandemic price post 2024 onwards. 3 years from now, provided there's no new surprises from Covid. If Delta lineage turns out to be the 2nd Covid black swan then the pandemic will get extended longer.

Moneymaker, why are you so ""chiong hei "" long winded one ? Keep repeating ASP will come down. Everbody know lah. Maybank latest report projected ASP for Harta { almost 95 %Nitrile} for year 2022 , 2023 , 2024 to be US 65 , US 44 and US 29 respectively. Take 2024 , the US 29 is still higher than my worst case.assumption of US 24.

Tonnefa had answerrd your questions. You can give your comments to him. If.you think.the CBP.is.such a big killer , then the share prices of plantations sectors , semicon.sector should also come down more than 60 % since US.are investigating.Sime, FGV and IOI now . Later they may investigate the labour intensive semicon sectors which also employ thounsands of foreign.labour also. If this is your macro view, might as well sell.all local stocks now and keep as cash. Wait for the stocks to tumble from the current 1550 to less than 500 .


--------------------------
GlovesOff See beat around the bush yet NEVER answer my questions.

Share price drop so much not gloomy enough hehe

GloveOff , Dont pain such a gloomy picture as though today situation is worst than the asian financial crisis which created havoc in Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea ,Malaysia and other asian countries. Indonesia , Korea and Thailands were forced to borrowed from IMF at high interest rates. Indonesia had massive riots. South Koreans has to donate gold to save the countries. Thailand property developer went bankrupt and has to earn.a living selling sandwiches. Malaysian government has to form Danaharta to buy up NPL from all banks so that they wont go bankrupt. The scale of 1998 financial.crises are.far far greater than today.
In any crisis.危机 , there is opportunity. All these countries recovered gradually . In 2000 , most recovered. Many who went in and bought good profitable stocks made.a few x in 2000. Well , it is your right to have your own opinion. I respect that. I am an optimist and I see opportunity whenever there is a big big dip be it.in.1998 , 2008 or March of last year.

---------------------------------
GlovesOff @Pjseow let me put to you , gloves today is unlike before so it is wrong to blindly follow the bosses or buy a sector even at a 70-80% discount . There is a reason why Funds left .
1. Oversupply - China and New players NEVER venture into gloves before pandemic
2. Big 4 never faced CBP & Sec of State blacklist (to me this is giant killer)

True investor knows how to accept loss and exit , cannot simply quote 1998 buying discounted blue chips , it's not apple to apple comparison .
04/07/2021 4:07 PM

The shortages of gloves caused by our EMCO in Selangor will create another supply crises like last year. The explosive Delta Variants spreading like fires in US and other countries will further excerbate the acute shortages . The second half ASPs. might not drop as projected but may stay put or even rises further . These.shortages will resemble the chip or semicon shortages which impacted the car.industries for 6 months already.

Many peoples buy stock if the dividend is good. As for me ,.dividend is.an important part of the overall return . If a stock.can.give me 8 to 10 % dividend , why I cant buy such stock ? Of course dividend yield is not the only criteria for stock selection. Company future growth rates, good cash flow, ROE and PE are important consideration. I bought supermx based on the above few criterias. Different investors have different criterias. It is up to their own judgements because it is their own money.

Citadel 666 , I never use 666. I never change my id so far. You are the one who use citadel , citadel 12 ,citadel 1688,citadel 9999 and then yesterday citadel 666. I warned you many times but you still said you like 666 even though you know it is a number for satan. Why.you choose 666 in the first place? It must have suit your character right ?

Citadel666, I am just curious. Yesterday you said you like 666 because you like like this number which represent satan. You alsi said you are not superstitious because you are an atheist who believe only in.money , money , money. Why not stick to citadel 666 which suit your character ?

Citadel 666 , what happen to your 666. I thought you said this 666 is auspicious number for you based on chinese tradition. Why changed back to 9999?

The CCP was formed 100 years ago due to many unequal treaties forced to sign by China with other countries because it was too weak to fight the imperialists Western countries plus Russia and Japan .China was occupied and colonised by 8 countries then . The compensation by China was enourmous which was equivalent to few years of GDP . These unequal treaties had improvished China for decades . This 100 years celebration by China is a reminder to all its citizens that China need to be strong and able to stand any bullying and colonizations by the Imperialists who will try to break up China again by intentionally supporting seperatists in Taiwan, HK, Xinjiang or Tibet . Taiwan was ceded to Japan after China lost the Sino Japanese war during the Ching Dynasty . Taiwan was part of CHina and USA plus almost all countries in the world recognised the One China policy . Although on one hand US recognise the one China policy , as usual US like to play Taiwan card to get its own interests by selling second hand weapons to Taiwan with 2 to 3x the prices . It also " promised " to defend Taiwan if CHina try to unify Taiwan by force . When pressed further by Taiwan authorities, US will keep mum or non commital . It is obvious that US will not sacrifice its citizens to fight with China in case China unite Taiwan by force .

Exactly, all IB s knew during end of last year that ASP will peak in mid 2021. It is not something they only know now or just a few weeks ago. At that time when prices were at peak , they gave buy call . Now when the prices drop 60 to 70 %, they are ""neutral ""
--------------------/----------------


Maxsuper ...... lower ASP n profit expected even 8 mths ago n TP 24.00.....
03/07/2021 9:37 PM

Delta variant is dangerous .Already spread to 80 countries.
------------------------------
https://indianexpress.com/article/india/delta-variant-is-dangerous-continues-to-evolve-and-mutate-who-chief-7387142/lite/#aoh=16253209266014&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Findianexpress.com%2Farticle%2Findia%2Fdelta-variant-is-dangerous-continues-to-evolve-and-mutate-who-chief-7387142%2Flite%2F%23aoh%3D16253209266014%26csi%3D0%26referrer%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.google.com%26amp_tf%3DFrom%2520%25251%2524s%26ampshare%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Findianexpress.com%252Farticle%252Findia%252Fdelta-variant-is-dangerous-continues-to-evolve-and-mutate-who-chief-7387142%252F

Beary , yes . sweet memories of good old days . I was young too . Made by first bucket of gold in 2000 with CI hit more than 1000 again plus the semicon and electronic boom. MPI , Unisem , Globtronics etc skyrocketed to multibaggers.
Then 2018 and 2019 US financial meltdown. CI went down from 1500 plus to 800 plus. Another.opportunity.
Be greedy when other peoples are fearful. Warren buffet contrarian approach in stock.inveatment.


------------------------------------------------------

Beary pjseow, 1997 sweet memories.

Good old times.

I was very young then but I made a huge bundle.
03/07/2021 12:08 PM

ok. I see. A total of more than 20 messages deleted.

--------------

invest_malaysia Pjseow, should be people report his post. He’s not deleting it. If he delete, we cannot it see.
03/07/2021 1:55 PM

Citadel 666 , why you keep deleting your messages which you just wrote an hr ago
. Now change back from Citadel 666 to Citadel 9999 again. I thought you like the numbers 666 which represent satan or the beast.

Citadel 666 , I.am not a Christian. Now you already know 666 is a number representing anti chris, satanic or the beast . Christian wont choose this number . If you think this number is good for you ,go ahead. At first , I thought your behaviour led you deeper into dark forces and make you choose 666. There was a movie in.1976.titled THE OMEN. The character in.the movie was named Damien who was very evil and will do all the bad things. Later, they found his head had this number 666.

Citadel666 , forget about stock investment first. I am serious with your choice of 666. I like numbers from very young and had interest in numerology . The.Chinese 通书 has a lot ancient knowledge and wisdom about what is auspicious dates and non auspicious dates for marriage , celebrations etc. The Revelation under New Tasterment also talk about certain number which is not very auspicious.

Citadel 666 , do you.know why I ask you such.question. It has something to do with the number 666.

Citadel, I saw your numerous messages yesterday were removed , why? You deleted them?
Are you a Christian like Calvin ?

When CI index crashing.down from.the high of 1300 in 1997 to 250 in 1998, there were.fears that many companies may go bankrupt because many big companies had loan in US.dollars. The exchange rates went down.from.rm 2.50 in 1997 to rm 4.50 in 1998. I saw opportunity of life time and bought tenaga , telekom and maybank which were very profitable. I sailang with bank overdraft plus whatever.cash I had.
The index rebound to 800 in 1999 within one year and reach 1000 at the beginning of 2000.
Now the super profitable glove makers also drop 70 to 80 % from the peaks . Preparing for my last sailang like Beary.

Invest malaysia, the reason why I share this latest BIMB report to moneymakers is to stop him from dreaming that next qtr profit will drop to rm 500 millions. Read the following extract from.the report especially the last paragraph. If you read the whole report , it is not illogical to estimate the coming qtr earning fir supermx will.still be around 1 billion. Reports from.TA and Nomura said the same things . That is the reason I.dare to bet with money maker .



---------------------------------------------
ASP have reach a peak in the March quarter.
Supermax’s ASP starting to see a drop in 2Q2021 which is earlier than our expectation in 2H2021.
Blended ASP still rose in 3QFY21 = Jan: USD84.61 (+1.3% mom), Feb: USD87.65 (+3.6% mom), March: USD89.2 (+1.7% mom).
Going forward, nitrile ASP (factory level) for April - June is about USD80-110, while July onward deteriorating to about USD70.
Currently, spot prices are lower than contracted prices and Supermax’s current spot prices for shipment in June is slipping down to USD70-80. As Supermax mostly sells its products under contract basis (its spot <5% of total production), it is expecting that blended ASP will not be significantly impacted in at least next 2 quarters

Invest malaysia, This May report by BIMB was the latest Supermx QR briefing. The next briefing by supermx will be next month. For your information , Analyst briefing on Financial Result is every 3 months in.case you are ignorant. Do you mean there is a June QR report by supermx management ? Dont.mind sharing ?


invest_malaysia Aiyo, Pjseow you take May report ah? Now July lo. Almost 1 quarter d
03/07/2021 8:32 AM

Moneymakers, I am.sharing another IB report . Read and digest it.

https://klse.i3investor.com/m/priceTarget/59513.jsp

I think.the Caucasians , Malays and Indians dont mind the number 4 but Chinese dont like. The caucasians.also dont like 13. I think 666 is beautiful number for Citadel.
---------------------------
invest_malaysia I know there’s dato seri use 4 as their car plates

Citadel 666 , You were banned with 8888, 9999, 12 and 1688 right.? That means these 4 numbers are not suitable for you . I.feel very.strongly 666 is beautiful number for you.
.Very ""NGAM" " in cantonese. Hope.i3 wont.ban this number.
-----------------------------------------
Citadel666 I got 8888, 9999, 12 ,1688,
02/07/2021 8:30 PM

Citadel 666 , the Chinese is very particular about numbers, they like 888 , 999 , 828 or numbers which sound like bringing good luck , wealth or prosperity. Chinese dont like 444.

Citadel 666 , this number match with your character very much.

Citadel 666, This number 666 suit.you very much.

Citadel 666 , will you use 666 forever?

Invest malaysia . Why you worry we hold tight tight. It us our money. Will.buy some more if go below 3. Still.waiting. work harder .


------------------

invest_malaysia No one pusing here. I’m telling what glovesoff mentioned. You yourself make it complicated. Go to hxll la. Continue to hold tight tight your supermax at RM4 la
02/07/2021 3:41 PM

Invest malaysia , You.must be blind.or stupxxd. Read the message by GloveOff. Isnt his message stating funds are.shying away, funds will not buy. You kaki pusing. Yesterday caught twisting . Today.also try to twist.

Jul 2, 2021 1:49 PM | Report Abuse

@pjseow ... funds are shying away not only due to asp ... until now you're harping on asp, how about cbp, oversupply and fmco under production issues ?

Funds will not buy and sell once US downgraded Malaysia to the worst ranking in human trafficking

You clearly have no idea how fund works ... esg is v important

I just want to do an academic exercise on supermx estimated earning based on Maybank's article about ASP for Nitrile and Latexx will drop to US 35 and 20 respectively . THis exercise has nothing to do with market pricing sentiment which may be caused by other factors like human trafficking ,CBP or foreign funds shying away as claimed by some peoples .

I had used earlier a blended ASP of US 24 as worst case scenario in my earning estimate for supermx by using margin of 10 % , capacity of 48 billions , utilization of 85 % and exchange rate of 4.15 in 2023 .

Revenue per year = 24 x 48 x 0.85 x 4.15 = 4063.68 millions

Profit = 4063 x 0.1 = 406.3 million

Now , with ASP of US 35 for Nitrile and US 20 for latexx , the blended ASP is = ( 35 x 0.9) + (20 x 0.1 ) = US 33.5 assuming nitrile/latexx ratio of 90 to 10 % .

Additional price compared with US 24 = 33.5 - 4 = US 9.5

Additional profit = 9.5 x 48 x 0.85 x 4.15 = 1608 millions
Additional profit minus 25 % tax = 1608 x 0.75 = 1206 millions

Therefore total profits = 406 + 1206 = 1612 millions
EPS = 1612/2720 = 59.3 sen

You can assign your own PE to this EPS

This profit is strictly supermx manufacturing profits only . I had not include the supermx Distribution Division profits yet . I also did not add the approximate rm 1 per share from the estimated few billions cash in hand plus the balance 2021 and 2022 profits which is expected to be made .

Disclaimer . THis exercise is purely academic . It is not a buy or sell call .

Invest malaysia and glovesoff. OK.lah.. Now you said it is human trafficking, CBP.and Foreign funds not coming which cause the downgrade not ASP . I interpreted the MAY bank downgrade differently. OK.loh, why so angry ? So you mean all industries in.malaysia will be affected.since plantation, property, semicons etc use.a lot of foreign labours also. The risk of cbp.ban on these industries is also present.

Gloveoff , when you talked about cbp., are you talking about topglove or supermx ? Be careful when you.said human trafficking. Otherwise you might get sued by the company.like how uncle tan went through.I am just responding to your message on Maybank which mentioned ASP downgrade. Maybank did not.say downgrade due to human trafficking. Pls dont create story.

Invest malaysia , why are you so scared to see the earnings when Nitrile is at US 35 in 2023 as stated by.Maybank . Why so scared ?
ASP US 35 for Nitrile gloves is less than half of current US75 mah?

GloveOff and invest malaysia , US 35 for Nitrile and US 20.4 for latexx in 2023 not bad leh . That was what I expected also as I had been quoting Frost and Sullivan Research numerous times. . By 2023 supermx will have 48.billions capacity and 90 : 10 Nitrile and Latexx gloves ratio. I can do.another calculation and show you how much supermx can make per year with these ASPs. You promise me dont jump up and down attacking me ya. The earnings will be much much more than double loh because US 35 is not SLIGHTELY HIGHER or 15 % higher than US 27.6 wor . It is 26.8 % higher . I am afraid.when I show you the calculation , you guys will run amok and attack.me non.stop. hahaha.

-------------------------------
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2021/07/02/declining-profits-ahead-for-glove-makers

Moneymakers, read the article in detail. You can find the answer.
---------------------------------
http://www.supermax.com.my/html/filedownload.aspx?file=(1)%20NOMURA%20RPT%20DD%206.5.2021%20BUY%20TP%20RM8.39.PDF

Toneefa, yes. the bet is 50 /50 . It is a fair bet and more exciting.
------------------------------
Haha pjseow, always calculating. But I don't think MM will dare to take your bait. He is a chicken coz he dare not even acknowledge the bet he agreed on yesterday with me. Of course, he probably worry about losing his kuku now. At 750mil, its could be a close call, but you still have the slight edge if he dare to accept the challenge.
01/07/2021 10:11 PM

Moneymaker , can you read.Chinese? You read the following link . You can.understand the coming QR plus the subsequent QR will not be affected because of the lock in price. Remeber last QR supermx lost 330 million shipment due to meru plant shutdown but yet it made a profit of 1.080 billion. We expect some shipment losses in June due to the 60 % MCO requirement. Never mind lah , if you dont want to bet also fine. It is just for fun.

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/826107

Moneymakers , you will lose this bet. No way the coming qtr profit will.goes down to rm 500 mil. Using a utilization of of 80 %, supermx can.still.make a billion lah. I also want to bet with you but bet with money . To be fair to you., we take the middle of 750 million. If more than 750 million, I win. If less than 750 million, you win. What about this bet ?

Toneefa, I think I better show the calculation.later after we manage to buy at lower prices. If I show now, the 4 to 5 poor maths stooges will attack me like yesterday when I just prove to them.mathematically upon. GF request that 15 % increase in.ASP can double the earning. They will.jump up and down like kera kena belacan.

---------------------------------------

pjseow, yes I ve been waiting since like forever to buy at 3.0 or below. Those fearmongrels keep promising I will get it. So I keep my hopes high. Hope they won't disappoint me. I always look forward to your calculations, it's like revealing the gems in a jewelry box. Keep it up my fren. I buy Supermax bcos of its OBM and coming OGM potential and I believe Supermax potential will be the best amongst the Big 4 going forward

Toneefa, you also wait for rm 3 and below ke ? .So many peoples are waiting because they know the value of supermx is worth much more. Later I will.show the more the factory ASP goes down , the better for the supermx distribution.division in.making profits. It is like glove makers will make more money if the raw materials like butadaiene and latexx prices are lower. Supermx OWN Distributors made more than.a billion in the last 4 qtrs even.they bought gloves at higher factory prices. If factory glove ASP goes down, this division will.make more with better margin.

Beary , yes. Really.stupxxd write up by cimb.
. Unbelievable.CIMB can write such contradictory statement. Later invest malaysian will say he read wrongly and add SLIGHTLY HIGHER than pre pandemic 。


----------------
Beary I have never seen a more stupeed statement than that in my life. Higher production cost + higher consumption = lower prices???


---------------------
The research house expects ASPs per 1,000 pieces to reach US$77 (about RM319.92), US$39 and US$29 respectively in 2021, 2022 and 2023, adding that it is “of the view that ASPs will decline to pre-Covid 19 levels” (US$21 to US$24 per 1,000 pieces) given the higher production costs and higher consumption patterns.
01/07/2021 3:10 PM