Had a dinner with a friend who came back from the UK for a visit. Shocked to learn of things under EU. Any EU citizen can go to the UK (or any other EU country), stay, get a job, unemployment benefit if no job, child care assist, etc. Good mah to help all the citizens in EU. On paper, yes. But in reality, it is distorted and abused. Reported a Greece man went to the UK, got child care assist, unemployment benefit etc. Guess what? He returned to Greece and used that money to renovate his house in Greece. I think that was reported in the newspaper in the UK.

If I were to vote, I will vote for exit! Why? Giving too much of the country away in the name of union, helping other countries.

Imagine that here in Asean. Anyone in ASEAN can go anywhere, settle down, get benefits, etc. ASEAN will be in a BIG mess in less than a year!

Please don't point a finger at me saying I am a heartless person with my views above. Heartless or realistic person?

Wondering what will happen once it has broken the historical support at 1615.

Free fall till xyz?

"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."
Lao Tzu


So some rules here:

1) Don't lose money, or try not to lose too much. Cut loss when you think you may be wrong is a good idea. But if you check and check and find nothing wrong, then it may be a different story.

2) Adhere to the 8 wonder of the world, the power of compounding. It works

3) Look for values.

If you pay half the price to buy something, even it goes doen in price, it is unlikely you lose much.
------------------------------------------------------
Sorry, no disrespect to my ancestor Lao Tzu. He could be wrong too. Ha.

I am not trying to predict. If we are now on the downward trend, it will be senseless & foolish of me to go out and invest 99% of my wealth in shares, properties, etc etc. Knowing what is happening, analyse it and then decide on your next step.

I have mentioned it before somewhere, big companies like Shell use their knowledge in their look ahead scenario business studies. I am pretty sure they don't get them all right all the time. To me, some look ahead & planning will put one in a better boat than the other one. Maybe Lao Tzu did not know of this - failing to plan is planning to fail. Ha.

Cheerio.

Where are we now on the greed-fear chart above?

Like to have the ebooks. plumberhm@hotmail.com

Thanks.

kcchongnz,

Hi.

Magic formula? Can't remember now. Don't think it is really magical (i.e., good) as otherwise I would be so impressed and thus able to remember it.

Using Magic Formula blindly = blind hope.

My gut feeling is, things (stock, real estate) will take a turn for the worse. Look at China's real estate now. House price index on the decline. Ditto for M'sia.

Rising inflation now + GST next year = dim hope for the next few years.

Cheerio.

My 2 cents ...

To me, getting into shares with hope is not 100% wrong. It is a question of blind hope vs educated hope. Blind hope is like following what others are doing without doing one's homework. Educated hope is investing after some extensive study of a solid, sound fundamental company and at the right price.

I do not think there is any investor who buys shares and does not hope the shares will do well later. If there is no hope, then why buy the shares?

Hope for the best! Ha.

Interesting, informative and clear analysis. Will study Mudajaya and then see whether to open my wallet. Ha.

Cheerio.

I have an interest in getting MAS about a year or two ago. But after some study, decided not to. Main support foundation is govt's $$$ (i.e. tax payers' money). As it is, it will not do well continuously, maybe a year or 2 with some profits and far in between.

Mr Koon, appreciate your view on what is the MAIN MAS problem as to why it is not making profit (govt's interference in its operation, the direction from the mgt, staff?). If it is privatised, will it have a better chance of making a profit and why?

Thanks.

Mr Koon,

For the benefit of those who cannot make it to the gathering, possible to video tape it for wider audience? Or a copy of your slide presentation?
Thanks.

I was studying JT earlier but did not go very far due to political strings/chains in there. Political connections can do wonders to a company but it can also do the reverse for their own gains. Appreciate your view and analysis on this political front, Mr Koon.
Thanks.

I have read the book. Rather disappointing to me compared to other investing books. Why? I did not gain much from it (not that I am an expert).

Nonetheless, have a read, enjoy and learn from it!

Informative and interesting. Thanks.

AA
Interested to know whether the sales and EPS growths in the past 5 years have been on steady increase. Bingo if they are.

BB.
I got different CAGR (12, 14 & 17), maybe something wrong with my formula (Xlast/Xfirst)^(1/no of years) -1. Please help.

Cheerio.

"The news comes as an unpleasant surprise as the Group had not disclosed any ongoing litigation in its financial reports. We understand from the management that no provisions have been made for the claims.

The lack of provision is a cause for concern, as the amount represents approximately 50% of the Group‟s annual net profit. Should the Group lose in its appeal, there will be grave implications for its FY13 bottomline"

Forgot? Did not think they would lose? Not a problem until after the court case?

Business ethic VS business growth/sentiment?

What would you do if you were the MD/CEO?

KC,

Hope that you won't mind sharing on these 2:

a. SOP Govt link (the Sarawak White Hair guy)does not worry you? Or you see it as an advantage? My fear is they can pull out or change things for their own benefits.

b. Jobstreet - mind sharing why you sell this as it is on my to-buy list?

Thanks.

FCTB,

Noted and thanks.

No, I do not mean I will do what others do or say. My rule no 1 is, don't just listen and do what others say. I should digest and study it, and see whether I am convinced of its merit or not. Learn from the experienced gurus like KCChongNZ and gark, their successes and failures (if any).

Yes, see that Uchitech has been paying high dividends in the past, attracting dividend seeking investors, not knowing the full story. Heard about this company from a friend who wanted to invest in it and thus I studied it.

No problem in sharing. One of the things I want to practise is

Smart people learn from experience
Wise people learn from the experience of others

I want to be a wise man. Ha.

Cheerio.

Noted.

Not the final yardstick I am afraid. E.g. Uchi Tech came up at 23rd (out of the 100+ companies I screened through). 23rd is considered pretty good BUT when you look at the details, the final total return to shareholder (capital + dividends) has been poor (@6% last 11 yrs @-7% for last 5 yrs). Yet, it came up at 23rd position. That is because only 1 yr data was used.

I take Joel's method as initial filter and then check with other parameters to finalise the list.

Cheerio.

I read Joel's book some months ago and tried out his method. Results of his 2 parameters listed in order are as below. I used the normal formula for the cals. Only realised at the end of the book that he used slightly different formula for the 2 parameters. Didn't repeat the calcs as it is quite some work to sort and group them.

My hesitation in using the results as they are based on 1 yr data (that yr could be either good or bad and thus not representative). Yes, should do this for a few years. Will see if I can automate this sorting one day.

The other problem is, there are other important parameters not directly covered in Joel's 2 parameters method. It should be used with other tools to come up with the final list of companies worthy of investment.

My 2 cents.


Tecnic group 4
Zhulian 5
Coastal contracts 5
FIMA Corp 8
Perstima 9
LUXCHEM 9
Padini 10
Hing Yiap 14
Malayan Flour 15
Hock Seng Lee 17
Harrisons Holdings 18
JT int 18
Paramount corp 19
Hai O Enterprise 22
Hartalega hold 22
PIE Industrial 22
CB Industrial 23
Apex Health 23
CCM Duopharama 23
Uchi Tech 23
Dutch Lady 24
NTPM 24
SKP Resources 25
Kumpulan Fima 26
DIGI 27
APM Automotive 28
Chuan Huat (steel) 29
New Hoong Fatt 29
LTKM (poultry) 30
Scientex 30

Thanks.

Informative and interesting report.

Surprised and worried that M'sia's forecast GDP is in the bottom group! Time to study and explore foreign investments.

Cheerio

Me too please at plumberhm@hotmail.com

Thanks.